The model favours a Mariehamn victory, with a 45 % chance of a home win, 28 % for a draw and 26 % for an away win. An average of 2.6 goals is expected, centring on a 2-goal total that carries a 27 % probability. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 13.6 % chance. Mariehamn’s home form shows 0.75 goals scored and 1.25 conceded against similar opponents, while FF Jaro’s away performance averages 1.0 goal scored and 2.09 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.5 %), Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.9 % with a 7 % edge), Under 6.5 (98.4 % with a 4 % edge), Away under 3.5 goals (97.6 % with a 6 % edge), Home under 2.5 HT goals (97.5 % with a 6 % edge), Away under 2.5 2H goals (97.5 % with a 7 % edge), Home under 2.5 2H goals (95.9 % with a 7 % edge) and Under 5.5 (95.4 % with a 6 % edge). Mariehamn’s recent two-game winning run and FF Jaro’s single win after four defeats frame the narrative.
Results analysis
Mariehamn’s 3-game winning run carried into the match, and they secured a 2-0 victory over FF Jaro, confirming the model’s prediction of a home win. The model had given the home side a 46% chance of triumph, and its call proved correct. The most likely scoreline, 1-1, had a 13.6% probability, but the actual 2-0 result still fell within the model’s broader forecast of a home win. Every suggested selection hit: Under 7.5 goals (99.5%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.7%), Under 6.5 (98.5%), Home under 2.5 HT goals (97.8%), Away under 3.5 goals (97.7%), Away under 2.5 2H goals (97.7%), Home under 2.5 2H goals (95.8%) and Under 5.5 (95.6%). All selections were settled in favour of the model’s predictions.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Mariehamn win✓ Hit
45.5%
Avg Implied 42.6% · @ 2.16
Edge
+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
2.23
Dafabet
2.20
Betano
2.20
1xBet
2.20
Unibet
2.18
Draw✗ Miss
28.6%
Avg Implied 26.2% · @ 3.53
Edge
+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.87
Dafabet
3.65
Marathonbet
3.60
1xBet
3.60
Betano
3.50
FF Jaro win✗ Miss
25.9%
Avg Implied 31.2% · @ 2.96
Edge
-5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
3.10
Superbet
3.05
Betano
3.05
Pinnacle
3.05
1xBet
2.99
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Mariehamn
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
2.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
1.67
1.00
1.33
1.27
2.00
vs Stronger (16)
0.94
1.75
1.22
1.33
0.57
2.29
vs Similar (14)
1.36
1.57
0.67
1.33
1.88
1.75
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
13% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (FF Jaro) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FF Jaro
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
1.93
1.36
1.57
1.00
2.25
vs Stronger (7)
1.14
2.71
1.50
3.00
1.00
2.60
vs Similar (23)
1.17
1.70
1.33
1.33
1.00
2.09
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
13% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Mariehamn) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
73.2%
@ 1.20-4.0%
Under 1.5
26.8%
@ 4.09+4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.23
Betano
1.23
10Bet
1.22
Superbet
1.20
Bet365
1.20
Under
Pinnacle
4.42
Bet365
4.33
Betfair
4.33
Unibet
4.10
BetVictor
4.10
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
46.5%
@ 1.69-8.9%
Under 2.5
53.5%
@ 2.11+8.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.73
SBO
1.73
Betano
1.72
10Bet
1.70
Marathonbet
1.70
Under
Pinnacle
2.20
Bet365
2.15
SBO
2.12
Marathonbet
2.11
1xBet
2.11
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
25.0%
@ 2.69-9.5%
Under 3.5
75.0%
@ 1.42+9.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.88
Pinnacle
2.80
10Bet
2.75
BetVictor
2.75
Betano
2.65
Under
Pinnacle
1.46
Bet365
1.44
Betano
1.44
Superbet
1.43
10Bet
1.42
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
51.6%
@ 1.56-7.3%
No
48.4%
@ 2.25+7.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Betfair
1.60
Superbet
1.58
Bet365
1.57
William Hil
1.57
Betano
1.57
No
BetVictor
2.30
1xBet
2.28
Bet365
2.25
Betano
2.25
Superbet
2.25
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.6%@ 6.41+6.7%
1-0
10.5%@ 8.45+5.2%
0-0
9.2%@ 11.45+5.3%
2-1
9.1%@ 7.95+3.6%
2-0 ✓
8.6%@ 10.73+4.5%
0-1
7.2%@ 9.98+2.7%
1-2
6.6%@ 9.61+2.0%
2-2
4.8%@ 11.15+0.9%
Mariehamn goals ↓
FF Jaro goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.2%
7.2%
4.4%
1.6%
0.4%
1
10%
14%
6.6%
2.3%
0.6%
2
8.6%
9.1%
4.8%
1.7%
0.5%
3
4.2%
4.5%
2.4%
0.8%
0.2%
4
1.6%
1.7%
0.9%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Mariehamn goals (down), columns = FF Jaro goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
KuPS
1.95
Inter Turku
1.91
HJK Helsinki
1.68
Gnistan
1.64
AC Oulu
1.55
VPS
1.50
Lahti
1.45
Turku PS
1.41
Ilves
1.14
SJK
0.86
FF Jaro
0.68
Mariehamn
0.64
Mariehamn is 0.05 points worse than FF Jaro in terms of average points per game (0.64 vs 0.68).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
KuPS
1.73
HJK Helsinki
1.64
Gnistan
1.64
Ilves
1.55
VPS
1.32
Inter Turku
1.32
Turku PS
1.27
Lahti
1.18
SJK
1.14
AC Oulu
1.14
FF Jaro
0.82
Mariehamn
0.77
Mariehamn is 0.05 goals worse than FF Jaro in terms of goals scored per game (0.77 vs 0.82).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Inter Turku
0.73
Lahti
0.86
VPS
1.00
KuPS
1.05
Turku PS
1.05
AC Oulu
1.14
HJK Helsinki
1.23
Gnistan
1.32
SJK
1.50
Ilves
1.68
Mariehamn
1.95
FF Jaro
2.00
Mariehamn is 0.05 goals better than FF Jaro in terms of goals conceded per game (1.95 vs 2.00).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Inter Turku
58%
KuPS
57%
Lahti
56%
HJK Helsinki
55%
SJK
50%
Turku PS
50%
Ilves
49%
VPS
48%
AC Oulu
48%
FF Jaro
47%
Mariehamn
45%
Gnistan
44%
Mariehamn is 2.1 percentage points worse than FF Jaro in terms of average possession (45% vs 47%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Mariehamn
For 4.4 · Against 6.1 · Total 10.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.6 · Against 1.3 · Total 2.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.6 · Against 9.3 · Total 20.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
FF Jaro
For 4.0 · Against 4.4 · Total 8.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.4 · Against 1.7 · Total 3.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.4 · Against 8.8 · Total 19.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Mariehamn
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.5
11.2
9.3
1.4
1.9
1.0
20.3
20.6
19.8
vs Stronger (27)
9.5
10.0
9.0
0.9
1.0
0.8
19.9
20.0
19.8
vs Similar (23)
11.0
11.8
9.6
2.1
3.2
1.2
20.5
20.9
19.8
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
68%
77%
56%
24%
33%
15%
52%
50%
56%
% under line
32%
23%
44%
76%
67%
85%
48%
50%
44%
This opponent (FF Jaro) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FF Jaro
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.1
10.2
9.8
1.3
1.6
1.0
18.4
18.9
17.6
vs Stronger (10)
10.3
9.0
13.0
0.9
1.5
0.5
17.0
20.0
11.0
vs Similar (39)
10.0
10.5
9.3
1.5
1.6
1.3
18.6
18.7
18.6
vs Weaker (1)
-
-
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
45%
50%
38%
16%
23%
8%
35%
33%
38%
% under line
55%
50%
62%
84%
77%
92%
65%
67%
62%
This opponent (Mariehamn) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Gnistan
11.5
Inter Turku
10.6
Mariehamn
10.3
SJK
10.1
Ilves
10.1
AC Oulu
10.1
FF Jaro
10.1
HJK Helsinki
9.9
VPS
9.8
KuPS
9.8
Lahti
9.8
Turku PS
8.4
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Lahti
4.5
Turku PS
4.3
Gnistan
4.0
AC Oulu
3.9
SJK
3.9
Mariehamn
3.9
Ilves
3.8
Inter Turku
3.8
VPS
3.6
FF Jaro
3.3
KuPS
3.2
HJK Helsinki
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
SJK
23.8
Ilves
23.2
Inter Turku
23.2
Lahti
23.1
AC Oulu
22.7
Gnistan
22.5
VPS
22.4
KuPS
22.0
Mariehamn
21.9
Turku PS
21.8
HJK Helsinki
20.5
FF Jaro
18.4
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
0.0%
Under 9.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.74
Pinnacle
1.68
Betano
1.65
Superbet
1.65
1xBet
1.63
Under
Betano
2.15
Pinnacle
2.12
Superbet
2.10
Marathonbet
2.09
1xBet
2.08
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
0.0%
Under 3.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Mariehamn or Draw✓ Hit
74.1%
Avg Implied 69.1% · @ 1.35
Edge
+5.0%
46%
29%
26%
covers Mariehamn + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.40
10Bet
1.36
Marathonbet
1.36
1xBet
1.36
Bet365
1.36
Mariehamn or FF Jaro✓ Hit
71.4%
Avg Implied 74.0% · @ 1.26
Edge
-2.6%
46%
29%
26%
covers Mariehamn + FF Jaro
Best 5 market prices
BetVictor
1.29
William Hil
1.29
Betano
1.29
Superbet
1.27
1xBet
1.26
Draw or FF Jaro✗ Miss
54.5%
Avg Implied 56.9% · @ 1.64
Edge
-2.4%
46%
29%
26%
covers Draw + FF Jaro
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.70
William Hil
1.67
SBO
1.66
10Bet
1.65
1xBet
1.64
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Mariehamn over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
77.2%
@ 1.19-0.7%
Under
22.8%
@ 4.18+0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.26
Betano
1.21
Bet365
1.20
Pinnacle
1.20
Superbet
1.19
Under
Pinnacle
4.57
Betfair
4.50
Bet365
4.33
BetVictor
4.33
1xBet
4.20
Mariehamn over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
43.4%
@ 1.97-4.0%
Under
56.6%
@ 1.77+4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.05
Bet365
2.00
Betfair
2.00
Marathonbet
1.97
1xBet
1.97
Under
Pinnacle
1.82
Marathonbet
1.80
Betano
1.80
1xBet
1.80
Superbet
1.78
Mariehamn over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
18.5%
@ 4.00-4.6%
Under
81.5%
@ 1.21+4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
4.30
BetVictor
4.10
Unibet
4.00
Bet365
4.00
10Bet
4.00
Under
Betano
1.23
Bet365
1.22
Pinnacle
1.22
Marathonbet
1.21
Superbet
1.21
Mariehamn over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
6.3%
@ 8.97-4.1%
Under
93.7%
@ 1.04+4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
11.00
Betfair
9.50
1xBet
8.60
Marathonbet
8.60
Superbet
8.40
Under
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.05
Superbet
1.04
Betfair
1.04
Marathonbet
1.02
FF Jaro over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
65.3%
@ 1.29-6.7%
Under
34.7%
@ 3.31+6.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.31
10Bet
1.30
Betfair
1.30
Bet365
1.30
Pinnacle
1.29
Under
Pinnacle
3.61
Bet365
3.40
Marathonbet
3.34
BetVictor
3.30
Betano
3.30
FF Jaro over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
28.6%
@ 2.42-10.0%
Under
71.4%
@ 1.52+10.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.50
Bet365
2.50
Pinnacle
2.49
Superbet
2.40
BetVictor
2.40
Under
Pinnacle
1.57
1xBet
1.54
Marathonbet
1.54
Betano
1.53
Superbet
1.51
FF Jaro over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
9.2%
@ 5.45-7.8%
Under
90.8%
@ 1.12+7.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
6.00
Betfair
5.50
10Bet
5.50
BetVictor
5.50
Marathonbet
5.45
Under
Betano
1.14
Betfair
1.13
Superbet
1.12
Bet365
1.12
BetVictor
1.11
FF Jaro over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
2.3%
@ 11.50-5.9%
Under
97.7%
@ 1.02+5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
17.00
Superbet
13.00
Betfair
10.00
Betano
10.00
1xBet
9.50
Under
Betano
1.03
Betfair
1.03
Superbet
1.02
Bet365
1.02
Marathonbet
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Mariehamn, so a minus line means Mariehamn give that many goals of a start and FF Jaro receive them. At -1, Mariehamn must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Mariehamn win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Mariehamn)Actual: Draw
Mariehamn -2
9.1%
@ 8.18-1.8%
Draw -2
14.1%
@ 5.95-0.9%
FF Jaro +2
76.8%
@ 1.20+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
9.00
Bet365
8.50
Unibet
8.00
Marathonbet
7.70
Superbet
7.70
Draw
Marathonbet
6.10
Betfair
6.00
Bet365
6.00
Superbet
5.85
Unibet
5.80
Away
Bet365
1.25
Superbet
1.22
Unibet
1.19
Marathonbet
1.18
Betfair
1.17
Handicap -1 (Mariehamn)Actual: Mariehamn
Mariehamn -1
23.2%
@ 3.93+0.5%
Draw -1
22.3%
@ 3.90-0.6%
FF Jaro +1
54.5%
@ 1.64+0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
4.00
Bet365
4.00
10Bet
3.95
Unibet
3.95
Superbet
3.85
Draw
Bet365
4.00
Betfair
4.00
Superbet
3.90
10Bet
3.85
Marathonbet
3.84
Away
Bet365
1.67
Superbet
1.65
10Bet
1.65
Marathonbet
1.64
Betfair
1.62
Handicap +1 (Mariehamn)Actual: Mariehamn
Mariehamn +1
74.1%
@ 1.37+9.1%
Draw +1
15.7%
@ 4.60-3.7%
FF Jaro -1
10.3%
@ 5.69-5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
1.44
Unibet
1.36
Superbet
1.36
Marathonbet
1.36
10Bet
1.36
Draw
Bet365
5.00
Superbet
4.75
Marathonbet
4.60
10Bet
4.50
Unibet
4.40
Away
Bet365
6.50
10Bet
6.00
Unibet
5.75
Superbet
5.75
Marathonbet
5.65
Handicap +2 (Mariehamn)Actual: Mariehamn
Mariehamn +2
89.7%
@ 1.10+9.8%
Draw +2
7.3%
@ 7.28-4.9%
FF Jaro -2
3.0%
@ 11.24-4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
1.13
Marathonbet
1.10
Bet365
1.10
Unibet
1.09
Draw
Bet365
9.00
Betfair
7.50
Unibet
7.50
Marathonbet
5.10
Away
Bet365
15.00
Unibet
12.00
Betfair
11.00
Marathonbet
6.95
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Mariehamn
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.77
0.53
0.60
0.53
0.93
vs Stronger (16)
0.56
0.88
0.67
0.67
0.43
1.14
vs Similar (14)
0.50
0.64
0.33
0.50
0.62
0.75
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (FF Jaro) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FF Jaro
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.83
0.86
0.57
0.62
1.06
vs Stronger (7)
0.57
1.00
1.50
0.50
0.20
1.20
vs Similar (23)
0.78
0.78
0.75
0.58
0.82
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Mariehamn) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
66.2%
@ 1.32-4.1%
Under 0.5
33.8%
@ 3.14+4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.37
BetVictor
1.34
Bet365
1.33
10Bet
1.33
Superbet
1.31
Under
William Hil
3.30
Bet365
3.25
Betfair
3.20
1xBet
3.15
Marathonbet
3.15
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
29.1%
@ 2.46-8.7%
Under 1.5
70.9%
@ 1.50+8.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.57
Pinnacle
2.56
Betfair
2.50
Bet365
2.50
10Bet
2.45
Under
Pinnacle
1.52
Betfair
1.50
BetVictor
1.50
Superbet
1.50
Betano
1.50
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
7.8%
@ 5.75-8.3%
Under 2.5
92.2%
@ 1.10+8.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
6.50
Betfair
6.00
William Hil
5.80
Superbet
5.55
Betano
5.50
Under
Betano
1.12
William Hil
1.12
Superbet
1.11
Bet365
1.11
Betfair
1.11
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Mariehamn over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
44.6%
@ 1.84-5.8%
Under
55.4%
@ 1.87+5.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.88
Betano
1.88
1xBet
1.85
10Bet
1.83
Superbet
1.82
Under
Pinnacle
1.93
Superbet
1.88
Betano
1.87
Unibet
1.86
Marathonbet
1.86
Mariehamn over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
10.1%
@ 5.15-7.9%
Under
89.9%
@ 1.13+7.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
5.50
Marathonbet
5.25
10Bet
5.00
Betano
5.00
Superbet
5.00
Under
Betano
1.15
Superbet
1.14
10Bet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.12
1xBet
1.11
Mariehamn over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
2.2%
@ 14.00-4.5%
Under
97.8%
@ 1.01+4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
16.00
10Bet
15.00
Betano
11.00
Under
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
Superbet
1.01
FF Jaro over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
39.5%
@ 2.07-5.2%
Under
60.5%
@ 1.68+5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.13
Betano
2.12
Superbet
2.10
10Bet
2.10
Marathonbet
2.05
Under
Pinnacle
1.73
Unibet
1.68
Marathonbet
1.67
1xBet
1.67
Betano
1.67
FF Jaro over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
8.3%
@ 6.58-5.8%
Under
91.7%
@ 1.08+5.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
7.00
Marathonbet
6.60
Superbet
6.50
10Bet
6.50
Betano
6.30
Under
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.08
10Bet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.07
1xBet
1.06
FF Jaro over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.3%
@ 20.17-3.5%
Under
98.7%
@ 1.01+3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
26.00
Superbet
22.00
Betano
12.50
Under
10Bet
1.01
Betano
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Mariehamn
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.90
0.47
0.73
0.73
1.07
vs Stronger (16)
0.38
0.88
0.56
0.67
0.14
1.14
vs Similar (14)
0.86
0.93
0.33
0.83
1.25
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (FF Jaro) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FF Jaro
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
1.10
0.50
1.00
0.38
1.19
vs Stronger (7)
0.57
1.71
0.00
2.50
0.80
1.40
vs Similar (23)
0.39
0.91
0.58
0.75
0.18
1.09
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Mariehamn) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
74.4%
@ 1.18-4.0%
Under 0.5
25.6%
@ 4.30+4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.20
William Hil
1.20
Betano
1.20
Superbet
1.19
10Bet
1.18
Under
Betano
4.40
10Bet
4.33
Bet365
4.33
1xBet
4.30
Marathonbet
4.30
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
39.3%
@ 1.89-9.8%
Under 1.5
60.7%
@ 1.83+9.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.91
William Hil
1.91
1xBet
1.91
Bet365
1.91
Superbet
1.90
Under
Betano
1.88
10Bet
1.85
William Hil
1.83
1xBet
1.83
Marathonbet
1.83
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
16.3%
@ 3.75-8.4%
Under 2.5
83.7%
@ 1.23+8.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
4.00
William Hil
3.80
Superbet
3.75
Marathonbet
3.66
1xBet
3.66
Under
Betano
1.27
Superbet
1.23
1xBet
1.22
William Hil
1.22
Marathonbet
1.22
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Mariehamn over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
52.6%
@ 1.60-5.2%
Under
47.4%
@ 2.20+5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.72
Superbet
1.58
Betano
1.57
1xBet
1.57
10Bet
1.57
Under
Betano
2.30
1xBet
2.25
10Bet
2.25
Superbet
2.22
Marathonbet
1.98
Mariehamn over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
16.5%
@ 3.72-8.3%
Under
83.5%
@ 1.23+8.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
3.80
10Bet
3.75
Marathonbet
3.74
1xBet
3.70
Betano
3.60
Under
Betano
1.26
Superbet
1.23
1xBet
1.22
10Bet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.22
Mariehamn over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
4.2%
@ 9.25-5.9%
Under
95.8%
@ 1.04+5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
10.00
10Bet
9.50
Betano
8.25
Under
Betano
1.05
Superbet
1.03
10Bet
1.03
FF Jaro over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
45.7%
@ 1.76-6.9%
Under
54.3%
@ 1.96+6.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.77
Superbet
1.77
Marathonbet
1.75
10Bet
1.75
Betano
1.75
Under
Betano
2.00
10Bet
1.95
Superbet
1.95
Marathonbet
1.94
1xBet
1.94
FF Jaro over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
12.4%
@ 4.71-7.2%
Under
87.6%
@ 1.15+7.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.80
1xBet
4.80
10Bet
4.75
Superbet
4.75
Betano
4.45
Under
Betano
1.18
Superbet
1.15
10Bet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.14
1xBet
1.13
FF Jaro over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.3%
@ 12.67-5.1%
Under
97.7%
@ 1.02+5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
15.00
10Bet
13.00
Betano
10.00
Under
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.02
Superbet
1.01
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.7%
1.01
10Bet
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
+3.5%
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
98.5%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
1xBet
1.01
-
+3.9%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.8%
1.01
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
Superbet
1.01
-
-
+4.5%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
97.7%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Betfair
1.03
Superbet
1.02
Bet365
1.02
Marathonbet
1.01
+5.9%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.7%
1.02
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.02
Superbet
1.01
-
-
+5.1%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
95.8%
1.04
Betano
1.05
Superbet
1.03
10Bet
1.03
-
-
+5.9%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
95.6%
1.04
Bet365
1.06
Betano
1.06
Betfair
1.05
Superbet
1.04
BetVictor
1.03
+6.0%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
93.7%
1.04
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.05
Superbet
1.04
Betfair
1.04
Marathonbet
1.02
+4.1%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
92.2%
1.10
Betano
1.12
William Hil
1.12
Superbet
1.11
Bet365
1.11
Betfair
1.11
+8.3%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
91.7%
1.08
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.08
10Bet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.07
1xBet
1.06
+5.8%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
90.8%
1.12
Betano
1.14
Betfair
1.13
Superbet
1.12
Bet365
1.12
BetVictor
1.11
+7.8%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
89.9%
1.13
Betano
1.15
Superbet
1.14
10Bet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.12
1xBet
1.11
+7.9%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
89.7%
1.10
Betfair
1.13
Marathonbet
1.10
Bet365
1.10
Unibet
1.09
-
+9.8%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
88.6%
1.15
Pinnacle
1.18
Betano
1.18
Bet365
1.17
Superbet
1.15
Betfair
1.14
+7.6%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
87.6%
1.15
Betano
1.18
Superbet
1.15
10Bet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.14
1xBet
1.13
+7.2%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
83.7%
1.23
Betano
1.27
Superbet
1.23
1xBet
1.22
William Hil
1.22
Marathonbet
1.22
+8.4%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
83.5%
1.23
Betano
1.26
Superbet
1.23
1xBet
1.22
10Bet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.22
+8.3%
✗ Miss
Home under 2.5 goals
81.5%
1.21
Betano
1.23
Bet365
1.22
Pinnacle
1.22
Marathonbet
1.21
Superbet
1.21
+4.6%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
77.2%
1.19
Marathonbet
1.26
Betano
1.21
Bet365
1.20
Pinnacle
1.20
Superbet
1.19
-0.7%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
76.8%
1.20
Bet365
1.25
Superbet
1.22
Unibet
1.19
Marathonbet
1.18
Betfair
1.17
+2.7%
✗ Miss
Under 3.5
75.0%
1.42
Pinnacle
1.46
Bet365
1.44
Betano
1.44
Superbet
1.43
10Bet
1.42
+9.5%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
74.4%
1.18
Bet365
1.20
William Hil
1.20
Betano
1.20
Superbet
1.19
10Bet
1.18
-4.0%
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
74.1%
1.35
Betano
1.40
10Bet
1.36
Marathonbet
1.36
1xBet
1.36
Bet365
1.36
+5.0%
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
74.1%
1.37
Betfair
1.44
Unibet
1.36
Superbet
1.36
Marathonbet
1.36
10Bet
1.36
+9.1%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
73.2%
1.20
Pinnacle
1.23
Betano
1.23
10Bet
1.22
Superbet
1.20
Bet365
1.20
-4.0%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
71.4%
1.26
BetVictor
1.29
William Hil
1.29
Betano
1.29
Superbet
1.27
1xBet
1.26
-2.6%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 goals
71.4%
1.52
Pinnacle
1.57
1xBet
1.54
Marathonbet
1.54
Betano
1.53
Superbet
1.51
+10.0%
✓ Hit
Under 1.5 HT goals
70.9%
1.50
Pinnacle
1.52
Betfair
1.50
BetVictor
1.50
Superbet
1.50
Betano
1.50
+8.7%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Mariehamn
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Sebastian Dahlström33%
A. Larsson29%
M. Hyvönen17%
Anttoni Huttunen14%
E. Patut10%
Noah Nurmi0%
J. van der Heyden0%
M. Riikonen0%
J. Nissinen0%
Yeboah Amankwah0%
Pontus Lindgren0%
Nikolaos Dosis0%
Tuomas Koivisto0%
A. Stroud0%
Leo Andersson0%
A. Soiniemi0%
K. Lund0%
Luke Pearce0%
Samson Ngulube0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Sebastian Dahlström33%
Pontus Lindgren33%
E. Patut30%
J. Nissinen29%
A. Soiniemi25%
Luke Pearce20%
Nikolaos Dosis17%
Tuomas Koivisto17%
Noah Nurmi11%
J. van der Heyden0%
M. Riikonen0%
Anttoni Huttunen0%
A. Larsson0%
Yeboah Amankwah0%
M. Hyvönen0%
A. Stroud0%
Leo Andersson0%
K. Lund0%
Samson Ngulube0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Yeboah Amankwah20%
Luke Pearce20%
Tuomas Koivisto17%
A. Stroud14%
E. Patut10%
Noah Nurmi0%
J. van der Heyden0%
M. Riikonen0%
J. Nissinen0%
Sebastian Dahlström0%
Anttoni Huttunen0%
A. Larsson0%
Pontus Lindgren0%
Nikolaos Dosis0%
M. Hyvönen0%
Leo Andersson0%
A. Soiniemi0%
K. Lund0%
Samson Ngulube0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
A. Larsson29%
E. Patut20%
Tuomas Koivisto17%
A. Stroud14%
Noah Nurmi0%
J. van der Heyden0%
M. Riikonen0%
J. Nissinen0%
Sebastian Dahlström0%
Anttoni Huttunen0%
Yeboah Amankwah0%
Pontus Lindgren0%
Nikolaos Dosis0%
M. Hyvönen0%
Leo Andersson0%
A. Soiniemi0%
K. Lund0%
Luke Pearce0%
Samson Ngulube0%
FF Jaro
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
H. Sjögrell38%
R. Vikström25%
Kaius Hardén17%
Fabian Östigard Ness17%
A. Vidjeskog0%
Johan Brunell0%
J. Myrevik0%
M. Ogungbaro0%
Senne Vits0%
Erik Gunnarsson0%
Aron Bjonbäck0%
J. Skau0%
Mats Pedersen0%
Oliver Kass Kawo0%
V. Vuorinen0%
Linus Zetterstrom0%
Joas Vikström0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
A. Vidjeskog50%
M. Ogungbaro29%
J. Skau25%
R. Vikström25%
Oliver Kass Kawo17%
V. Vuorinen12%
Johan Brunell0%
J. Myrevik0%
Senne Vits0%
Erik Gunnarsson0%
Aron Bjonbäck0%
H. Sjögrell0%
Mats Pedersen0%
Kaius Hardén0%
Fabian Östigard Ness0%
Linus Zetterstrom0%
Joas Vikström0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Mats Pedersen25%
Oliver Kass Kawo17%
H. Sjögrell12%
V. Vuorinen12%
A. Vidjeskog0%
Johan Brunell0%
J. Myrevik0%
M. Ogungbaro0%
Senne Vits0%
Erik Gunnarsson0%
Aron Bjonbäck0%
J. Skau0%
Kaius Hardén0%
R. Vikström0%
Fabian Östigard Ness0%
Linus Zetterstrom0%
Joas Vikström0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
H. Sjögrell38%
Kaius Hardén17%
R. Vikström12%
A. Vidjeskog0%
Johan Brunell0%
J. Myrevik0%
M. Ogungbaro0%
Senne Vits0%
Erik Gunnarsson0%
Aron Bjonbäck0%
J. Skau0%
Mats Pedersen0%
Oliver Kass Kawo0%
V. Vuorinen0%
Fabian Östigard Ness0%
Linus Zetterstrom0%
Joas Vikström0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KUP (30)
€7m
HH (28)
€7m
IT (25)
€5m
ILV (23)
€4m
SJK (26)
€4m
AO (23)
€4m
VPS (22)
€3m
GNI (21)
€3m
LAH (22)
€3m
MAR (23)
€2m
TP (22)
€2m
FJ (20)
€2m
Mariehamn and FF Jaro have a similar squad value (both €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HH (10)
€2m
KUP (9)
€2m
IT (9)
€2m
SJK (8)
€1m
VPS (5)
€1m
ILV (7)
€1m
AO (6)
€1m
GNI (6)
€1m
LAH (9)
€1m
TP (8)
€1m
MAR (9)
€1m
FJ (7)
€1m
Mariehamn and FF Jaro have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KUP (9)
€3m
HH (6)
€1m
ILV (5)
€1m
IT (5)
€1m
AO (6)
€1m
SJK (9)
€1m
FJ (6)
€1m
VPS (5)
€1m
MAR (4)
€1m
GNI (5)
€1m
LAH (3)
€1m
TP (4)
€0m
Mariehamn and FF Jaro have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HH (12)
€3m
KUP (12)
€3m
IT (11)
€2m
ILV (11)
€2m
SJK (9)
€2m
VPS (12)
€1m
AO (11)
€1m
GNI (10)
€1m
LAH (10)
€1m
TP (10)
€1m
MAR (10)
€1m
FJ (7)
€1m
Mariehamn and FF Jaro have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Finland: Veikkausliiga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Finland: Veikkausliiga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
KuPS
Inter Turku
HJK Helsinki
Gnistan
AC Oulu
VPS
Lahti
Turku PS
Ilves
SJK