This opponent (Ilves) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ilves
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.9
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
1.33
1.27
1.60
1.33
1.07
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (27)
1.33
1.41
1.31
1.77
1.36
1.07
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
0.67
1.00
0.50
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
23% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Mariehamn) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
76.7%
Under 1.5
23.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
51.2%
Under 2.5
48.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
29.1%
Under 3.5
70.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
55.9%
No
44.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.2%
1-2
9.1%
0-1 â
8.8%
0-0
7.8%
0-2
7.5%
2-1
7.3%
1-0
6.7%
2-2
5.5%
Mariehamn goals ↓
Ilves goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.8%
8.8%
7.5%
3.8%
1.4%
1
6.7%
13%
9.1%
4.6%
1.7%
2
4.8%
7.3%
5.5%
2.8%
1.1%
3
1.9%
2.9%
2.2%
1.1%
0.4%
4
0.6%
0.9%
0.7%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Mariehamn goals (down), columns = Ilves goals (across).
ðŠ 3. Team Strengths Analysis
ð Total PPG
Points / game
KuPS
2.07
Ilves
2.00
HJK Helsinki
1.67
SJK
1.52
FF Jaro
1.50
Inter Turku
1.50
Gnistan
1.41
VPS
1.39
Haka
1.32
AC Oulu
1.04
Mariehamn
0.96
Lahti
0.93
EIF
0.70
Mariehamn is 1.04 points worse than Ilves in terms of average points per game (0.96 vs 2.00).
âïļ Attack
Goals scored / game
Ilves
2.07
SJK
1.72
KuPS
1.70
Inter Turku
1.68
HJK Helsinki
1.63
VPS
1.54
Haka
1.48
Gnistan
1.48
AC Oulu
1.19
Lahti
1.10
FF Jaro
1.00
Mariehamn
1.00
EIF
0.89
Mariehamn is 1.07 goals worse than Ilves in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 2.07).
ðĄïļ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FF Jaro
0.50
KuPS
0.89
HJK Helsinki
1.00
Ilves
1.00
Inter Turku
1.25
AC Oulu
1.48
Gnistan
1.55
Haka
1.61
SJK
1.62
Mariehamn
1.63
VPS
1.64
Lahti
1.69
EIF
2.11
Mariehamn is 0.63 goals worse than Ilves in terms of goals conceded per game (1.63 vs 1.00).
âąïļ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
ðē 4. Props Analysis
Mariehamn
For 4.3 · Against 6.7 · Total 11.0
ðĐ Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 1.7 · Total 3.6
ðĻ Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.6 · Against 11.1 · Total 21.7
â ïļ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Ilves
For 5.7 · Against 4.0 · Total 9.7
ðĐ Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.2 · Against 2.3 · Total 4.5
ðĻ Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.2 · Against 13.8 · Total 27.0
â ïļ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Mariehamn
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.4
11.0
9.8
3.0
3.0
3.1
24.5
24.3
24.6
vs Stronger (28)
9.6
9.9
9.4
3.0
2.5
3.5
25.6
24.5
26.3
vs Similar (22)
11.5
12.1
10.6
3.0
3.5
2.5
22.7
24.1
20.4
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
58%
62%
53%
40%
40%
40%
70%
69%
71%
% under line
42%
38%
47%
60%
60%
60%
30%
31%
29%
This opponent (Ilves) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ilves
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.9
10.1
9.7
2.7
2.2
3.2
25.7
27.0
24.6
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (42)
10.1
10.2
10.1
2.9
2.4
3.3
26.1
27.8
24.8
vs Weaker (8)
8.4
9.7
6.5
1.6
1.0
2.2
23.4
23.7
23.0
% over line
53%
60%
47%
46%
36%
56%
74%
80%
68%
% under line
47%
40%
53%
54%
64%
44%
26%
20%
32%
This opponent (Mariehamn) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
ðĐ Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Gnistan
12.5
SJK
10.6
Haka
10.5
Mariehamn
10.4
Lahti
10.1
VPS
9.9
KuPS
9.7
Inter Turku
9.7
Ilves
9.6
HJK Helsinki
9.2
ðĻ Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Lahti
4.8
Gnistan
4.5
Mariehamn
4.5
Inter Turku
4.4
Haka
4.4
KuPS
4.4
SJK
4.0
Ilves
3.8
VPS
3.7
HJK Helsinki
3.2
â ïļ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Ilves
25.2
Inter Turku
24.7
Mariehamn
24.5
SJK
24.0
KuPS
23.9
Lahti
23.5
HJK Helsinki
22.8
Haka
22.4
VPS
22.1
Gnistan
21.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
59.6%
Under 9.5
40.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
60.7%
Under 3.5
39.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
74.1%
Under 21.5
25.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ð 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
ðĨ 6. Home & Away Over/Under
âïļ 7. Handicap
âąïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Mariehamn
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.77
0.57
0.86
0.62
0.69
vs Stronger (17)
0.41
0.82
0.29
1.00
0.50
0.70
vs Similar (13)
0.85
0.69
0.86
0.71
0.83
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Ilves) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ilves
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.47
0.67
0.47
0.47
0.47
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (27)
0.59
0.44
0.69
0.46
0.50
0.43
vs Weaker (3)
0.33
0.67
0.50
0.50
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
63% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Mariehamn) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Mariehamn over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mariehamn over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mariehamn over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ilves over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ilves over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ilves over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
âąïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Mariehamn
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.57
0.43
0.36
0.88
0.75
vs Stronger (17)
0.65
0.76
0.14
0.57
1.00
0.90
vs Similar (13)
0.69
0.31
0.71
0.14
0.67
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Ilves) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ilves
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.87
0.60
1.13
0.87
0.60
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (27)
0.74
0.96
0.62
1.31
0.86
0.64
vs Weaker (3)
0.67
0.00
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Mariehamn) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Mariehamn over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mariehamn over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mariehamn over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ilves over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ilves over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ilves over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
85.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
79.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
76.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Miss
Under 5.5 cards
75.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 21.5 fouls
74.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 8.5 corners
71.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
70.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
ð― 13. Player market rates
Mariehamn · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Sebastian DahlstrÃķm33%
A. Larsson29%
M. HyvÃķnen17%
Anttoni Huttunen14%
E. Patut10%
Noah Nurmi0%
J. van der Heyden0%
M. Riikonen0%
J. Nissinen0%
Yeboah Amankwah0%
Pontus Lindgren0%
Nikolaos Dosis0%
Tuomas Koivisto0%
A. Stroud0%
Leo Andersson0%
A. Soiniemi0%
K. Lund0%
Luke Pearce0%
Samson Ngulube0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Sebastian DahlstrÃķm33%
Pontus Lindgren33%
E. Patut30%
J. Nissinen29%
A. Soiniemi25%
Luke Pearce20%
Nikolaos Dosis17%
Tuomas Koivisto17%
Noah Nurmi11%
J. van der Heyden0%
M. Riikonen0%
Anttoni Huttunen0%
A. Larsson0%
Yeboah Amankwah0%
M. HyvÃķnen0%
A. Stroud0%
Leo Andersson0%
K. Lund0%
Samson Ngulube0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Yeboah Amankwah20%
Luke Pearce20%
Tuomas Koivisto17%
A. Stroud14%
E. Patut10%
Noah Nurmi0%
J. van der Heyden0%
M. Riikonen0%
J. Nissinen0%
Sebastian DahlstrÃķm0%
Anttoni Huttunen0%
A. Larsson0%
Pontus Lindgren0%
Nikolaos Dosis0%
M. HyvÃķnen0%
Leo Andersson0%
A. Soiniemi0%
K. Lund0%
Samson Ngulube0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
A. Larsson29%
E. Patut20%
Tuomas Koivisto17%
A. Stroud14%
Noah Nurmi0%
J. van der Heyden0%
M. Riikonen0%
J. Nissinen0%
Sebastian DahlstrÃķm0%
Anttoni Huttunen0%
Yeboah Amankwah0%
Pontus Lindgren0%
Nikolaos Dosis0%
M. HyvÃķnen0%
Leo Andersson0%
A. Soiniemi0%
K. Lund0%
Luke Pearce0%
Samson Ngulube0%
Ilves · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
T. HytÃķnen43%
J. Kanga43%
R. Riski33%
J. Veteli25%
Maksim Stjopin20%
Otto Tiitinen17%
Oliver Pettersson12%
T. Miettunen0%
A. Popovitch0%
M. Rale0%
F. KrkaliÄ0%
K. Wallius0%
J. Kilo0%
Stanislav Baranov0%
Y. Raap0%
Oskari Multala0%
V. Kumpu0%
Abdoul Goudouss Bamba0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
K. Wallius33%
Y. Raap29%
T. Miettunen25%
Maksim Stjopin20%
R. Riski17%
J. Kanga14%
A. Popovitch12%
J. Veteli0%
M. Rale0%
F. KrkaliÄ0%
T. HytÃķnen0%
Oliver Pettersson0%
J. Kilo0%
Stanislav Baranov0%
Oskari Multala0%
Otto Tiitinen0%
V. Kumpu0%
Abdoul Goudouss Bamba0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
J. Kilo50%
J. Kanga29%
R. Riski0%
T. Miettunen0%
A. Popovitch0%
J. Veteli0%
M. Rale0%
F. KrkaliÄ0%
Maksim Stjopin0%
K. Wallius0%
T. HytÃķnen0%
Oliver Pettersson0%
Stanislav Baranov0%
Y. Raap0%
Oskari Multala0%
Otto Tiitinen0%
V. Kumpu0%
Abdoul Goudouss Bamba0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
T. HytÃķnen29%
Maksim Stjopin20%
J. Kanga14%
J. Kilo12%
R. Riski0%
T. Miettunen0%
A. Popovitch0%
J. Veteli0%
M. Rale0%
F. KrkaliÄ0%
K. Wallius0%
Oliver Pettersson0%
Stanislav Baranov0%
Y. Raap0%
Oskari Multala0%
Otto Tiitinen0%
V. Kumpu0%
Abdoul Goudouss Bamba0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
ð° 14. Squad value
ð° Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KUP (30)
€7m
HH (28)
€7m
IT (25)
€5m
ILV (23)
€4m
SJK (26)
€4m
AO (23)
€4m
VPS (22)
€3m
GNI (21)
€3m
LAH (22)
€3m
MAR (23)
€2m
FJ (20)
€2m
HAK (21)
€1m
EIF (20)
€1m
Mariehamn's squad is €2m less valuable than Ilves's (€2m vs €4m).
âïļ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HH (10)
€2m
KUP (9)
€2m
IT (9)
€2m
SJK (8)
€1m
VPS (5)
€1m
ILV (7)
€1m
AO (6)
€1m
GNI (6)
€1m
LAH (9)
€1m
MAR (9)
€1m
FJ (7)
€1m
EIF (9)
€0m
HAK (7)
€0m
Mariehamn and Ilves have a similar attack value (both €1m).
ð§ Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KUP (9)
€3m
HH (6)
€1m
ILV (5)
€1m
IT (5)
€1m
AO (6)
€1m
SJK (9)
€1m
FJ (6)
€1m
VPS (5)
€1m
MAR (4)
€1m
GNI (5)
€1m
LAH (3)
€1m
HAK (5)
€0m
EIF (4)
€0m
Mariehamn and Ilves have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
ðĄïļ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HH (12)
€3m
KUP (12)
€3m
IT (11)
€2m
ILV (11)
€2m
SJK (9)
€2m
VPS (12)
€1m
AO (11)
€1m
GNI (10)
€1m
LAH (10)
€1m
MAR (10)
€1m
HAK (9)
€1m
FJ (7)
€1m
EIF (7)
€0m
Mariehamn's defence is €1m less valuable than Ilves's (€1m vs €2m).
Finland: Veikkausliiga 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Finland: Veikkausliiga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
KuPS
HJK Helsinki
SJK
Inter Turku
Gnistan
Haka
VPS
AC Oulu
Lahti
EIF
FF Jaro