This opponent (Ilves) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ilves
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
2.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.20
1.10
2.62
1.06
1.71
1.14
vs Stronger (4)
1.50
2.00
1.50
1.00
1.50
3.00
vs Similar (23)
2.22
1.09
2.67
1.25
1.73
0.91
vs Weaker (3)
3.00
0.00
3.50
0.00
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Mariehamn) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
75.5%
Under 1.5
24.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
49.7%
Under 2.5
50.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
27.8%
Under 3.5
72.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
48.7%
No
51.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.7%
0-1
11.6%
0-2
11.6%
1-2
9.7%
0-0
8.0%
0-3
7.0%
1-3
5.9%
1-0
4.8%
Mariehamn goals ↓
Ilves goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.0%
12%
12%
7.0%
3.2%
1
4.8%
12%
9.7%
5.9%
2.7%
2
2.5%
4.5%
4.1%
2.5%
1.1%
3
0.7%
1.3%
1.1%
0.7%
0.3%
4
0.1%
0.3%
0.2%
0.1%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Mariehamn goals (down), columns = Ilves goals (across).
ðŠ 3. Team Strengths Analysis
ð Total PPG
Points / game
Turku PS
3.00
KuPS
2.09
Inter Turku
1.91
Ilves
1.88
SJK
1.84
HJK Helsinki
1.53
FF Jaro
1.26
Mariehamn
1.19
VPS
1.15
Gnistan
1.03
AC Oulu
1.00
Kooteepee
0.72
Haka
0.63
Mariehamn is 0.69 points worse than Ilves in terms of average points per game (1.19 vs 1.88).
âïļ Attack
Goals scored / game
Turku PS
3.00
HJK Helsinki
2.31
SJK
2.19
Ilves
2.12
KuPS
1.94
Inter Turku
1.88
Gnistan
1.47
VPS
1.37
FF Jaro
1.30
AC Oulu
1.30
Mariehamn
1.26
Kooteepee
1.14
Haka
1.11
Mariehamn is 0.87 goals worse than Ilves in terms of goals scored per game (1.26 vs 2.12).
ðĄïļ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Turku PS
1.00
Inter Turku
1.03
KuPS
1.06
Ilves
1.41
VPS
1.56
SJK
1.59
HJK Helsinki
1.62
FF Jaro
1.63
Haka
1.85
Mariehamn
1.96
AC Oulu
1.96
Gnistan
2.03
Kooteepee
2.31
Mariehamn is 0.56 goals worse than Ilves in terms of goals conceded per game (1.96 vs 1.41).
âąïļ Possession
Avg possession %
HJK Helsinki
58%
Ilves
54%
KuPS
53%
VPS
50%
Kooteepee
50%
Inter Turku
50%
SJK
49%
AC Oulu
49%
FF Jaro
49%
Mariehamn
48%
Gnistan
44%
Haka
44%
Turku PS
37%
Mariehamn is 6.5 percentage points worse than Ilves in terms of average possession (48% vs 54%).
ðē 4. Props Analysis
Mariehamn
ðĐ Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
ðĻ Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
â ïļ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Ilves
For 3.5 · Against 6.5 · Total 10.0
ðĐ Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.0 · Against 3.5 · Total 6.5
ðĻ Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.5 · Against 14.0 · Total 25.5
â ïļ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Mariehamn
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.4
12.0
9.1
0.9
1.0
0.9
22.4
23.0
21.9
vs Stronger (25)
8.6
10.3
7.2
0.8
0.8
0.8
24.1
23.3
24.8
vs Similar (25)
12.1
13.7
11.0
1.0
1.2
0.9
20.6
22.7
19.0
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
57%
67%
50%
10%
14%
7%
57%
67%
50%
% under line
43%
33%
50%
90%
86%
93%
43%
33%
50%
This opponent (Ilves) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ilves
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.4
10.7
10.1
1.3
1.0
1.7
26.8
27.6
26.1
vs Stronger (4)
10.0
12.0
8.0
3.2
3.0
3.5
25.5
28.0
23.0
vs Similar (40)
10.9
11.8
10.4
1.3
0.9
1.6
27.9
30.2
26.6
vs Weaker (6)
8.0
8.0
-
0.3
0.5
0.0
22.0
22.0
-
% over line
60%
71%
50%
24%
19%
29%
87%
86%
88%
% under line
40%
29%
50%
76%
81%
71%
13%
14%
12%
This opponent (Mariehamn) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
ðĐ Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Gnistan
12.5
Kooteepee
11.3
SJK
10.6
Haka
10.5
Mariehamn
10.4
VPS
9.9
KuPS
9.7
Inter Turku
9.7
Ilves
9.6
HJK Helsinki
9.3
ðĻ Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Kooteepee
4.8
Gnistan
4.5
Mariehamn
4.5
Inter Turku
4.4
Haka
4.4
KuPS
4.4
SJK
4.0
Ilves
3.9
VPS
3.7
HJK Helsinki
3.3
â ïļ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Ilves
25.2
Inter Turku
24.7
Mariehamn
24.5
SJK
24.0
KuPS
23.9
HJK Helsinki
23.1
Kooteepee
22.8
Haka
22.4
VPS
22.1
Gnistan
21.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
57.6%
Under 9.5
42.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
60.9%
Under 3.5
39.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
70.6%
Under 21.5
29.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ð 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
ðĨ 6. Home & Away Over/Under
âïļ 7. Handicap
âąïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Mariehamn
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.27
0.83
0.31
0.69
0.24
0.94
vs Stronger (14)
0.14
0.71
0.29
0.57
0.00
0.86
vs Similar (16)
0.38
0.94
0.33
0.83
0.40
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Ilves) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ilves
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.53
1.31
0.56
0.64
0.50
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
1.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (23)
0.96
0.52
1.33
0.75
0.55
0.27
vs Weaker (3)
2.00
0.00
2.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
63% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Mariehamn) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Mariehamn over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mariehamn over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mariehamn over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ilves over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ilves over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ilves over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
âąïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Mariehamn
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.80
0.62
0.85
0.94
0.76
vs Stronger (14)
0.93
1.21
0.57
1.29
1.29
1.14
vs Similar (16)
0.69
0.44
0.67
0.33
0.70
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Ilves) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ilves
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
0.57
1.31
0.50
1.07
0.64
vs Stronger (4)
1.00
1.00
1.50
1.00
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (23)
1.26
0.57
1.33
0.50
1.18
0.64
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Mariehamn) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Mariehamn over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mariehamn over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mariehamn over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ilves over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ilves over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ilves over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
83.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
79.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
75.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Under 5.5 cards
74.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
72.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Miss
Over 21.5 fouls
70.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
ð― 13. Player market rates
Mariehamn
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Korede Adedoyin55%
Leo Andersson40%
Olawale Muhamed Tehe29%
Emmanuel Okereke20%
Jelle van der Heyden10%
Jiri Nissinen9%
Daniel Enqvist8%
Niilo Kujasalo8%
Noah Nurmi0%
Matias Riikonen0%
Sebastian DahlstrÃķm0%
Anttoni Huttunen0%
Hugo Alexandre Santos Cardoso0%
Admiral Muskwe0%
Pontus Lindgren0%
Jayden Reid0%
Michael Fonsell0%
Emmanuel Patut0%
Arvid Lundberg0%
Wille NuÃąez0%
Emir El Kathemi0%
Rasmus Holmberg0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Korede Adedoyin27%
Emmanuel Patut27%
Hugo Alexandre Santos Cardoso20%
Jayden Reid20%
Olawale Muhamed Tehe14%
Matias Riikonen12%
Pontus Lindgren11%
Emmanuel Okereke10%
Jiri Nissinen9%
Sebastian DahlstrÃķm9%
Daniel Enqvist8%
Noah Nurmi0%
Jelle van der Heyden0%
Anttoni Huttunen0%
Admiral Muskwe0%
Michael Fonsell0%
Niilo Kujasalo0%
Arvid Lundberg0%
Leo Andersson0%
Wille NuÃąez0%
Emir El Kathemi0%
Rasmus Holmberg0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Anttoni Huttunen33%
Hugo Alexandre Santos Cardoso20%
Jayden Reid20%
Jiri Nissinen9%
Korede Adedoyin9%
Emmanuel Patut9%
Daniel Enqvist8%
Niilo Kujasalo8%
Noah Nurmi0%
Jelle van der Heyden0%
Matias Riikonen0%
Sebastian DahlstrÃķm0%
Olawale Muhamed Tehe0%
Admiral Muskwe0%
Pontus Lindgren0%
Michael Fonsell0%
Arvid Lundberg0%
Leo Andersson0%
Emmanuel Okereke0%
Wille NuÃąez0%
Emir El Kathemi0%
Rasmus Holmberg0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Korede Adedoyin27%
Hugo Alexandre Santos Cardoso20%
Leo Andersson20%
Niilo Kujasalo17%
Olawale Muhamed Tehe14%
Jayden Reid10%
Noah Nurmi0%
Jelle van der Heyden0%
Matias Riikonen0%
Jiri Nissinen0%
Sebastian DahlstrÃķm0%
Anttoni Huttunen0%
Admiral Muskwe0%
Pontus Lindgren0%
Daniel Enqvist0%
Michael Fonsell0%
Emmanuel Patut0%
Arvid Lundberg0%
Emmanuel Okereke0%
Wille NuÃąez0%
Emir El Kathemi0%
Rasmus Holmberg0%
Ilves
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Roope Riski33%
Teemu HytÃķnen29%
Jardell Kanga23%
Jesse Kilo20%
Tatu Miettunen18%
Adeleke Akinola Akinyemi18%
Joona Veteli17%
Oiva Jukkola17%
Marius SÃķderbÃĪck15%
Anton Popovitch8%
Maksim Stjopin8%
Matias Rale8%
Sauli VÃĪisÃĪnen0%
Otso Virtanen0%
Aapo MÃĪenpÃĪÃĪ0%
Faris KrkaliÄ0%
Kalle Wallius0%
AndrÃĐ Raymond0%
Vincent Ulundu0%
Otto Tiitinen0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Sauli VÃĪisÃĪnen30%
Anton Popovitch25%
Faris KrkaliÄ17%
Oiva Jukkola17%
Matias Rale15%
Jardell Kanga15%
Otso Virtanen12%
Tatu Miettunen9%
Adeleke Akinola Akinyemi9%
Roope Riski8%
Joona Veteli8%
Aapo MÃĪenpÃĪÃĪ0%
Maksim Stjopin0%
Kalle Wallius0%
Teemu HytÃķnen0%
AndrÃĐ Raymond0%
Marius SÃķderbÃĪck0%
Jesse Kilo0%
Vincent Ulundu0%
Otto Tiitinen0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Marius SÃķderbÃĪck31%
Vincent Ulundu20%
Roope Riski17%
Maksim Stjopin17%
Matias Rale15%
Jardell Kanga15%
AndrÃĐ Raymond14%
Sauli VÃĪisÃĪnen10%
Joona Veteli8%
Oiva Jukkola8%
Tatu Miettunen0%
Otso Virtanen0%
Aapo MÃĪenpÃĪÃĪ0%
Anton Popovitch0%
Adeleke Akinola Akinyemi0%
Faris KrkaliÄ0%
Kalle Wallius0%
Teemu HytÃķnen0%
Jesse Kilo0%
Otto Tiitinen0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Jesse Kilo20%
Roope Riski17%
Anton Popovitch8%
Joona Veteli8%
Oiva Jukkola8%
Sauli VÃĪisÃĪnen0%
Tatu Miettunen0%
Otso Virtanen0%
Aapo MÃĪenpÃĪÃĪ0%
Adeleke Akinola Akinyemi0%
Matias Rale0%
Faris KrkaliÄ0%
Maksim Stjopin0%
Kalle Wallius0%
Teemu HytÃķnen0%
AndrÃĐ Raymond0%
Jardell Kanga0%
Marius SÃķderbÃĪck0%
Vincent Ulundu0%
Otto Tiitinen0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
ð° 14. Squad value
ð° Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KUP (30)
€7m
HH (28)
€7m
IT (25)
€5m
ILV (23)
€4m
SJK (26)
€4m
AO (23)
€4m
VPS (22)
€3m
GNI (21)
€3m
MAR (23)
€2m
TP (22)
€2m
FJ (20)
€2m
HAK (21)
€1m
KOO (19)
€1m
Mariehamn's squad is €2m less valuable than Ilves's (€2m vs €4m).
âïļ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HH (10)
€2m
KUP (9)
€2m
IT (9)
€2m
SJK (8)
€1m
VPS (5)
€1m
ILV (7)
€1m
AO (6)
€1m
GNI (6)
€1m
TP (8)
€1m
MAR (9)
€1m
FJ (7)
€1m
KOO (10)
€1m
HAK (7)
€0m
Mariehamn and Ilves have a similar attack value (both €1m).
ð§ Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KUP (9)
€3m
HH (6)
€1m
ILV (5)
€1m
IT (5)
€1m
AO (6)
€1m
SJK (9)
€1m
FJ (6)
€1m
VPS (5)
€1m
MAR (4)
€1m
GNI (5)
€1m
TP (4)
€0m
HAK (5)
€0m
KOO (2)
€0m
Mariehamn and Ilves have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
ðĄïļ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HH (12)
€3m
KUP (12)
€3m
IT (11)
€2m
ILV (11)
€2m
SJK (9)
€2m
VPS (12)
€1m
AO (11)
€1m
GNI (10)
€1m
TP (10)
€1m
MAR (10)
€1m
HAK (9)
€1m
FJ (7)
€1m
KOO (7)
€0m
Mariehamn's defence is €1m less valuable than Ilves's (€1m vs €2m).
Finland: Veikkausliiga 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Finland: Veikkausliiga stats & trends →
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KuPS
Inter Turku
SJK
HJK Helsinki
FF Jaro
Gnistan
VPS
AC Oulu
Kooteepee
Haka
Turku PS