This opponent (VPS) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
VPS
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.70
1.47
1.00
1.36
2.31
1.56
vs Stronger (7)
2.29
1.14
0.50
1.50
3.00
1.00
vs Similar (21)
1.38
1.62
1.09
1.36
1.70
1.90
vs Weaker (2)
3.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
5.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
20% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Mariehamn) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
85.5%
Under 1.5
14.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
64.7%
Under 2.5
35.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
42.6%
Under 3.5
57.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
64.9%
No
35.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.5%
1-2
9.5%
0-2
7.0%
2-1 â
6.5%
2-2
6.4%
1-3
6.2%
0-1
6.1%
0-3
4.6%
Mariehamn goals ↓
VPS goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.5%
6.1%
7.0%
4.6%
2.3%
1
3.9%
11%
9.5%
6.2%
3.1%
2
3.3%
6.5%
6.4%
4.2%
2.1%
3
1.5%
2.9%
2.9%
1.9%
0.9%
4
0.5%
1.0%
1.0%
0.6%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Mariehamn goals (down), columns = VPS goals (across).
ðŠ 3. Team Strengths Analysis
ð Total PPG
Points / game
Turku PS
3.00
KuPS
2.09
Inter Turku
1.91
Ilves
1.88
SJK
1.84
HJK Helsinki
1.53
FF Jaro
1.26
Mariehamn
1.19
VPS
1.15
Gnistan
1.03
AC Oulu
1.00
Kooteepee
0.72
Haka
0.63
Mariehamn is 0.04 points better than VPS in terms of average points per game (1.19 vs 1.15).
âïļ Attack
Goals scored / game
Turku PS
3.00
HJK Helsinki
2.31
SJK
2.19
Ilves
2.12
KuPS
1.94
Inter Turku
1.88
Gnistan
1.47
VPS
1.37
FF Jaro
1.30
AC Oulu
1.30
Mariehamn
1.26
Kooteepee
1.14
Haka
1.11
Mariehamn is 0.11 goals worse than VPS in terms of goals scored per game (1.26 vs 1.37).
ðĄïļ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Turku PS
1.00
Inter Turku
1.03
KuPS
1.06
Ilves
1.41
VPS
1.56
SJK
1.59
HJK Helsinki
1.62
FF Jaro
1.63
Haka
1.85
Mariehamn
1.96
AC Oulu
1.96
Gnistan
2.03
Kooteepee
2.31
Mariehamn is 0.41 goals worse than VPS in terms of goals conceded per game (1.96 vs 1.56).
âąïļ Possession
Avg possession %
HJK Helsinki
58%
Ilves
54%
KuPS
53%
VPS
50%
Kooteepee
50%
Inter Turku
50%
SJK
49%
AC Oulu
49%
FF Jaro
49%
Mariehamn
48%
Gnistan
44%
Haka
44%
Turku PS
37%
Mariehamn is 2.6 percentage points worse than VPS in terms of average possession (48% vs 50%).
ðē 4. Props Analysis
Mariehamn
For 5.0 · Against 6.4 · Total 11.4
ðĐ Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.4 · Against 2.1 · Total 3.6
ðĻ Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 8.2 · Against 12.9 · Total 21.1
â ïļ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
VPS
For 6.2 · Against 5.2 · Total 11.4
ðĐ Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 2.2 · Total 4.0
ðĻ Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.8 · Against 10.0 · Total 22.8
â ïļ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Mariehamn
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.4
11.5
11.3
0.6
1.1
0.3
21.1
20.8
21.7
vs Stronger (24)
11.3
11.0
11.5
0.4
0.3
0.5
23.0
26.0
21.5
vs Similar (26)
11.5
11.6
11.0
0.8
1.9
0.1
20.2
19.8
22.0
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
89%
83%
100%
8%
17%
0%
56%
50%
67%
% under line
11%
17%
0%
92%
83%
100%
44%
50%
33%
This opponent (VPS) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
VPS
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.4
10.0
13.5
0.4
0.5
0.4
22.8
20.7
26.0
vs Stronger (12)
8.5
8.5
-
0.6
1.4
0.0
19.0
19.0
-
vs Similar (32)
16.0
-
16.0
0.2
0.0
0.3
26.0
-
26.0
vs Weaker (6)
12.0
13.0
11.0
1.2
1.0
1.3
25.0
24.0
26.0
% over line
80%
67%
100%
6%
5%
7%
80%
67%
100%
% under line
20%
33%
0%
94%
95%
93%
20%
33%
0%
This opponent (Mariehamn) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
ðĐ Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Gnistan
13.2
FF Jaro
12.0
Kooteepee
11.4
Haka
10.8
SJK
10.7
Mariehamn
10.6
Ilves
10.5
AC Oulu
10.4
KuPS
10.1
VPS
10.1
Inter Turku
9.9
HJK Helsinki
9.7
ðĻ Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Gnistan
5.3
AC Oulu
4.7
Kooteepee
4.7
Inter Turku
4.4
Haka
4.3
KuPS
4.3
Mariehamn
4.2
FF Jaro
4.1
SJK
4.0
Ilves
4.0
VPS
3.7
HJK Helsinki
3.3
â ïļ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Ilves
24.6
Inter Turku
24.2
KuPS
23.8
Mariehamn
23.7
AC Oulu
23.3
SJK
23.3
Gnistan
22.8
HJK Helsinki
22.6
Kooteepee
22.5
VPS
22.2
Haka
22.0
FF Jaro
17.3
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
76.0%
Under 9.5
24.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
62.5%
Under 3.5
37.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
44.9%
Under 21.5
55.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ð 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
ðĨ 6. Home & Away Over/Under
âïļ 7. Handicap
âąïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Mariehamn
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.67
0.53
0.40
0.33
0.93
vs Stronger (15)
0.47
0.67
0.75
0.25
0.14
1.14
vs Similar (15)
0.40
0.67
0.29
0.57
0.50
0.75
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (VPS) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
VPS
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.57
0.36
0.50
0.75
0.62
vs Stronger (7)
0.71
0.43
0.00
0.00
1.00
0.60
vs Similar (21)
0.52
0.67
0.45
0.64
0.60
0.70
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Mariehamn) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Mariehamn over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mariehamn over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mariehamn over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
VPS over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
VPS over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
VPS over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
âąïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Mariehamn
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
1.27
0.80
1.47
0.93
1.07
vs Stronger (15)
0.67
1.80
0.50
2.00
0.86
1.57
vs Similar (15)
1.07
0.73
1.14
0.86
1.00
0.62
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (VPS) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
VPS
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
0.90
0.64
0.86
1.56
0.94
vs Stronger (7)
1.57
0.71
0.50
1.50
2.00
0.40
vs Similar (21)
0.86
0.95
0.64
0.73
1.10
1.20
vs Weaker (2)
2.50
1.00
1.00
1.00
4.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
30% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Mariehamn) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Mariehamn over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mariehamn over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mariehamn over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
VPS over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
VPS over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
VPS over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
85.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Over 8.5 corners
84.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 25.5 fouls
83.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
80.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 9.5 corners
76.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
73.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 23.5 fouls
71.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
ð― 13. Player market rates
Mariehamn
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Korede Adedoyin55%
Leo Andersson40%
Olawale Muhamed Tehe29%
Emmanuel Okereke20%
Jelle van der Heyden10%
Jiri Nissinen9%
Daniel Enqvist8%
Niilo Kujasalo8%
Noah Nurmi0%
Matias Riikonen0%
Sebastian DahlstrÃķm0%
Anttoni Huttunen0%
Hugo Alexandre Santos Cardoso0%
Admiral Muskwe0%
Pontus Lindgren0%
Jayden Reid0%
Michael Fonsell0%
Emmanuel Patut0%
Arvid Lundberg0%
Wille NuÃąez0%
Emir El Kathemi0%
Rasmus Holmberg0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Korede Adedoyin27%
Emmanuel Patut27%
Hugo Alexandre Santos Cardoso20%
Jayden Reid20%
Olawale Muhamed Tehe14%
Matias Riikonen12%
Pontus Lindgren11%
Emmanuel Okereke10%
Jiri Nissinen9%
Sebastian DahlstrÃķm9%
Daniel Enqvist8%
Noah Nurmi0%
Jelle van der Heyden0%
Anttoni Huttunen0%
Admiral Muskwe0%
Michael Fonsell0%
Niilo Kujasalo0%
Arvid Lundberg0%
Leo Andersson0%
Wille NuÃąez0%
Emir El Kathemi0%
Rasmus Holmberg0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Anttoni Huttunen33%
Hugo Alexandre Santos Cardoso20%
Jayden Reid20%
Jiri Nissinen9%
Korede Adedoyin9%
Emmanuel Patut9%
Daniel Enqvist8%
Niilo Kujasalo8%
Noah Nurmi0%
Jelle van der Heyden0%
Matias Riikonen0%
Sebastian DahlstrÃķm0%
Olawale Muhamed Tehe0%
Admiral Muskwe0%
Pontus Lindgren0%
Michael Fonsell0%
Arvid Lundberg0%
Leo Andersson0%
Emmanuel Okereke0%
Wille NuÃąez0%
Emir El Kathemi0%
Rasmus Holmberg0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Korede Adedoyin27%
Hugo Alexandre Santos Cardoso20%
Leo Andersson20%
Niilo Kujasalo17%
Olawale Muhamed Tehe14%
Jayden Reid10%
Noah Nurmi0%
Jelle van der Heyden0%
Matias Riikonen0%
Jiri Nissinen0%
Sebastian DahlstrÃķm0%
Anttoni Huttunen0%
Admiral Muskwe0%
Pontus Lindgren0%
Daniel Enqvist0%
Michael Fonsell0%
Emmanuel Patut0%
Arvid Lundberg0%
Emmanuel Okereke0%
Wille NuÃąez0%
Emir El Kathemi0%
Rasmus Holmberg0%
VPS
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Maissa Fall40%
Jesper EngstrÃķm25%
Yassin Daoussi17%
Olli Jakonen14%
Prosper Ahiabu14%
Martti Haukioja12%
Tyler Reid0%
Tristan Dekker0%
Pedro Justiniano0%
Rasmus Leislahti0%
Antti-Ville RÃĪisÃĪnen0%
Miika Niemi0%
Yassine El Ouatki0%
Antonio Almen0%
William Wilson0%
Kalle Huhta0%
Nicolas Fleuriau Chateau0%
Alfie Cicale0%
Mamadou Jalloh0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Prosper Ahiabu43%
Tyler Reid29%
Martti Haukioja25%
Rasmus Leislahti20%
William Wilson20%
Pedro Justiniano17%
Yassin Daoussi17%
Miika Niemi14%
Antti-Ville RÃĪisÃĪnen12%
Yassine El Ouatki12%
Maissa Fall0%
Tristan Dekker0%
Jesper EngstrÃķm0%
Olli Jakonen0%
Antonio Almen0%
Kalle Huhta0%
Nicolas Fleuriau Chateau0%
Alfie Cicale0%
Mamadou Jalloh0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Yassine El Ouatki38%
Alfie Cicale25%
Olli Jakonen14%
Antti-Ville RÃĪisÃĪnen12%
Tyler Reid0%
Maissa Fall0%
Tristan Dekker0%
Pedro Justiniano0%
Rasmus Leislahti0%
Jesper EngstrÃķm0%
Martti Haukioja0%
Miika Niemi0%
Yassin Daoussi0%
Prosper Ahiabu0%
Antonio Almen0%
William Wilson0%
Kalle Huhta0%
Nicolas Fleuriau Chateau0%
Mamadou Jalloh0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Maissa Fall40%
Prosper Ahiabu14%
Martti Haukioja12%
Tyler Reid0%
Tristan Dekker0%
Pedro Justiniano0%
Rasmus Leislahti0%
Jesper EngstrÃķm0%
Antti-Ville RÃĪisÃĪnen0%
Miika Niemi0%
Yassin Daoussi0%
Olli Jakonen0%
Yassine El Ouatki0%
Antonio Almen0%
William Wilson0%
Kalle Huhta0%
Nicolas Fleuriau Chateau0%
Alfie Cicale0%
Mamadou Jalloh0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
ð° 14. Squad value
ð° Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KUP (30)
€7m
HH (28)
€7m
IT (25)
€5m
ILV (23)
€4m
SJK (26)
€4m
AO (23)
€4m
VPS (22)
€3m
GNI (21)
€3m
MAR (23)
€2m
TP (22)
€2m
FJ (20)
€2m
HAK (21)
€1m
KOO (19)
€1m
Mariehamn's squad is €1m less valuable than VPS's (€2m vs €3m).
âïļ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HH (10)
€2m
KUP (9)
€2m
IT (9)
€2m
SJK (8)
€1m
VPS (5)
€1m
ILV (7)
€1m
AO (6)
€1m
GNI (6)
€1m
TP (8)
€1m
MAR (9)
€1m
FJ (7)
€1m
KOO (10)
€1m
HAK (7)
€0m
Mariehamn and VPS have a similar attack value (both €1m).
ð§ Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KUP (9)
€3m
HH (6)
€1m
ILV (5)
€1m
IT (5)
€1m
AO (6)
€1m
SJK (9)
€1m
FJ (6)
€1m
VPS (5)
€1m
MAR (4)
€1m
GNI (5)
€1m
TP (4)
€0m
HAK (5)
€0m
KOO (2)
€0m
Mariehamn and VPS have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
ðĄïļ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HH (12)
€3m
KUP (12)
€3m
IT (11)
€2m
ILV (11)
€2m
SJK (9)
€2m
VPS (12)
€1m
AO (11)
€1m
GNI (10)
€1m
TP (10)
€1m
MAR (10)
€1m
HAK (9)
€1m
FJ (7)
€1m
KOO (7)
€0m
Mariehamn and VPS have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Finland: Veikkausliiga 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Finland: Veikkausliiga stats & trends →
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KuPS
Inter Turku
Ilves
SJK
HJK Helsinki
FF Jaro
Gnistan
AC Oulu
Kooteepee
Haka
Turku PS