This opponent (VPS) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
VPS
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.7
Avg scored
2.6
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.97
1.30
1.08
1.23
2.65
1.35
vs Stronger (5)
3.40
1.00
0.50
1.50
5.33
0.67
vs Similar (22)
1.59
1.36
1.20
1.20
1.92
1.50
vs Weaker (3)
2.33
1.33
1.00
1.00
3.00
1.50
Clean sheet %
27% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Mariehamn) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
77.2%
Under 1.5
22.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
51.8%
Under 2.5
48.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
29.6%
Under 3.5
70.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
57.0%
No
43.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.3%
1-2
8.5%
2-1
8.1%
0-1 â
7.8%
0-0
7.6%
1-0
7.4%
0-2
6.3%
2-0
5.8%
Mariehamn goals ↓
VPS goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.6%
7.8%
6.3%
2.9%
1.0%
1
7.4%
13%
8.5%
4.0%
1.4%
2
5.8%
8.1%
5.7%
2.7%
0.9%
3
2.6%
3.6%
2.6%
1.2%
0.4%
4
0.9%
1.2%
0.9%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Mariehamn goals (down), columns = VPS goals (across).
ðŠ 3. Team Strengths Analysis
ð Total PPG
Points / game
KuPS
1.95
Inter Turku
1.91
HJK Helsinki
1.68
Gnistan
1.64
AC Oulu
1.55
VPS
1.50
Lahti
1.45
Turku PS
1.41
Ilves
1.14
SJK
0.86
FF Jaro
0.68
Mariehamn
0.64
Mariehamn is 0.86 points worse than VPS in terms of average points per game (0.64 vs 1.50).
âïļ Attack
Goals scored / game
KuPS
1.73
HJK Helsinki
1.64
Gnistan
1.64
Ilves
1.55
VPS
1.32
Inter Turku
1.32
Turku PS
1.27
Lahti
1.18
SJK
1.14
AC Oulu
1.14
FF Jaro
0.82
Mariehamn
0.77
Mariehamn is 0.55 goals worse than VPS in terms of goals scored per game (0.77 vs 1.32).
ðĄïļ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Inter Turku
0.73
Lahti
0.86
VPS
1.00
KuPS
1.05
Turku PS
1.05
AC Oulu
1.14
HJK Helsinki
1.23
Gnistan
1.32
SJK
1.50
Ilves
1.68
Mariehamn
1.95
FF Jaro
2.00
Mariehamn is 0.95 goals worse than VPS in terms of goals conceded per game (1.95 vs 1.00).
âąïļ Possession
Avg possession %
Inter Turku
58%
KuPS
57%
Lahti
56%
HJK Helsinki
55%
SJK
50%
Turku PS
50%
Ilves
49%
VPS
48%
AC Oulu
48%
FF Jaro
47%
Mariehamn
45%
Gnistan
44%
Mariehamn is 3.4 percentage points worse than VPS in terms of average possession (45% vs 48%).
ðē 4. Props Analysis
Mariehamn
For 3.1 · Against 7.1 · Total 10.2
ðĐ Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.2 · Against 1.8 · Total 3.0
ðĻ Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 8.8 · Against 10.4 · Total 19.2
â ïļ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
VPS
For 5.4 · Against 5.2 · Total 10.6
ðĐ Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 1.5 · Total 3.4
ðĻ Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.4 · Against 10.1 · Total 23.5
â ïļ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Mariehamn
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.3
10.8
9.4
0.9
1.5
0.5
19.8
20.7
18.2
vs Stronger (25)
10.6
10.0
11.5
0.7
1.0
0.5
22.8
23.7
21.5
vs Similar (25)
10.1
11.2
8.0
1.2
2.2
0.5
18.1
19.2
16.0
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
64%
67%
60%
14%
27%
4%
43%
44%
40%
% under line
36%
33%
40%
86%
73%
96%
57%
56%
60%
This opponent (VPS) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
VPS
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.6
9.8
11.4
0.7
0.7
0.7
23.5
22.0
25.0
vs Stronger (11)
8.5
8.5
-
0.6
1.8
0.0
19.0
19.0
-
vs Similar (35)
10.8
9.5
11.5
0.6
0.3
0.8
24.5
24.0
24.8
vs Weaker (4)
12.0
13.0
11.0
1.8
1.5
2.0
25.0
24.0
26.0
% over line
70%
60%
80%
8%
5%
11%
70%
60%
80%
% under line
30%
40%
20%
92%
95%
89%
30%
40%
20%
This opponent (Mariehamn) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
ðĐ Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Gnistan
12.3
Turku PS
11.2
FF Jaro
10.8
SJK
10.6
Mariehamn
10.5
Ilves
10.5
Inter Turku
10.3
HJK Helsinki
10.3
VPS
10.1
Lahti
9.9
AC Oulu
9.9
KuPS
9.9
ðĻ Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Turku PS
6.8
Lahti
4.8
Mariehamn
4.2
Gnistan
4.2
SJK
4.0
Inter Turku
4.0
Ilves
4.0
AC Oulu
3.9
VPS
3.6
KuPS
3.6
FF Jaro
3.5
HJK Helsinki
3.1
â ïļ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Turku PS
31.8
SJK
24.1
Ilves
24.0
Inter Turku
23.7
Lahti
23.5
Mariehamn
23.2
VPS
22.4
AC Oulu
22.3
KuPS
22.3
Gnistan
22.1
HJK Helsinki
20.9
FF Jaro
18.2
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
58.9%
Under 9.5
41.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
47.9%
Under 3.5
52.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
52.5%
Under 21.5
47.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ð 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
ðĨ 6. Home & Away Over/Under
âïļ 7. Handicap
âąïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Mariehamn
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.60
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.69
vs Stronger (16)
0.44
0.69
0.75
0.50
0.12
0.88
vs Similar (14)
0.57
0.50
0.17
0.50
0.88
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (VPS) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
VPS
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.50
0.77
0.46
1.06
0.53
vs Stronger (5)
1.20
0.40
0.00
0.00
2.00
0.67
vs Similar (22)
0.91
0.55
1.00
0.60
0.83
0.50
vs Weaker (3)
0.67
0.33
0.00
0.00
1.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
60% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Mariehamn) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Mariehamn over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mariehamn over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mariehamn over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
VPS over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
VPS over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
VPS over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
âąïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Mariehamn
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
1.23
0.93
1.29
1.00
1.19
vs Stronger (16)
0.62
1.56
0.62
1.62
0.62
1.50
vs Similar (14)
1.36
0.86
1.33
0.83
1.38
0.88
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (VPS) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
VPS
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.80
0.31
0.77
1.59
0.82
vs Stronger (5)
2.20
0.60
0.50
1.50
3.33
0.00
vs Similar (22)
0.68
0.82
0.20
0.60
1.08
1.00
vs Weaker (3)
1.67
1.00
1.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Mariehamn) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Mariehamn over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mariehamn over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mariehamn over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
VPS over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
VPS over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
VPS over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 5.5 cards
84.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 25.5 fouls
78.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
77.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Miss
Under 4.5 cards
71.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 8.5 corners
70.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
70.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
ð― 13. Player market rates
Mariehamn
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Sebastian DahlstrÃķm33%
A. Larsson29%
M. HyvÃķnen17%
Anttoni Huttunen14%
E. Patut10%
Noah Nurmi0%
J. van der Heyden0%
M. Riikonen0%
J. Nissinen0%
Yeboah Amankwah0%
Pontus Lindgren0%
Nikolaos Dosis0%
Tuomas Koivisto0%
A. Stroud0%
Leo Andersson0%
A. Soiniemi0%
K. Lund0%
Luke Pearce0%
Samson Ngulube0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Sebastian DahlstrÃķm33%
Pontus Lindgren33%
E. Patut30%
J. Nissinen29%
A. Soiniemi25%
Luke Pearce20%
Nikolaos Dosis17%
Tuomas Koivisto17%
Noah Nurmi11%
J. van der Heyden0%
M. Riikonen0%
Anttoni Huttunen0%
A. Larsson0%
Yeboah Amankwah0%
M. HyvÃķnen0%
A. Stroud0%
Leo Andersson0%
K. Lund0%
Samson Ngulube0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Yeboah Amankwah20%
Luke Pearce20%
Tuomas Koivisto17%
A. Stroud14%
E. Patut10%
Noah Nurmi0%
J. van der Heyden0%
M. Riikonen0%
J. Nissinen0%
Sebastian DahlstrÃķm0%
Anttoni Huttunen0%
A. Larsson0%
Pontus Lindgren0%
Nikolaos Dosis0%
M. HyvÃķnen0%
Leo Andersson0%
A. Soiniemi0%
K. Lund0%
Samson Ngulube0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
A. Larsson29%
E. Patut20%
Tuomas Koivisto17%
A. Stroud14%
Noah Nurmi0%
J. van der Heyden0%
M. Riikonen0%
J. Nissinen0%
Sebastian DahlstrÃķm0%
Anttoni Huttunen0%
Yeboah Amankwah0%
Pontus Lindgren0%
Nikolaos Dosis0%
M. HyvÃķnen0%
Leo Andersson0%
A. Soiniemi0%
K. Lund0%
Luke Pearce0%
Samson Ngulube0%
VPS
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Luka Smyth62%
Olavi Keturi25%
Oluwaseyi Ogunniyi20%
A. RÃĪisÃĪnen14%
L. Mane14%
M. Haukioja10%
J. Turfkruier10%
K. Kouassivi-Benissan0%
S. Lindholm0%
M. Niemi0%
Y. Daoussi0%
Jonathan Muzinga0%
Paulo Lima0%
V. RÃķnnberg0%
E. Okereke0%
Mamadou Jalloh0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Paulo Lima33%
J. Turfkruier30%
V. RÃķnnberg20%
K. Kouassivi-Benissan14%
S. Lindholm14%
A. RÃĪisÃĪnen14%
Y. Daoussi14%
L. Mane14%
Luka Smyth12%
M. Haukioja10%
M. Niemi0%
Jonathan Muzinga0%
E. Okereke0%
Olavi Keturi0%
Mamadou Jalloh0%
Oluwaseyi Ogunniyi0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
J. Turfkruier20%
K. Kouassivi-Benissan14%
Y. Daoussi14%
M. Haukioja10%
Jonathan Muzinga10%
S. Lindholm0%
A. RÃĪisÃĪnen0%
M. Niemi0%
Paulo Lima0%
V. RÃķnnberg0%
Luka Smyth0%
E. Okereke0%
Olavi Keturi0%
Mamadou Jalloh0%
L. Mane0%
Oluwaseyi Ogunniyi0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
A. RÃĪisÃĪnen14%
Luka Smyth12%
K. Kouassivi-Benissan0%
M. Haukioja0%
S. Lindholm0%
M. Niemi0%
Y. Daoussi0%
Jonathan Muzinga0%
Paulo Lima0%
V. RÃķnnberg0%
J. Turfkruier0%
E. Okereke0%
Olavi Keturi0%
Mamadou Jalloh0%
L. Mane0%
Oluwaseyi Ogunniyi0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
ð° 14. Squad value
ð° Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KUP (30)
€7m
HH (28)
€7m
IT (25)
€5m
ILV (23)
€4m
SJK (26)
€4m
AO (23)
€4m
VPS (22)
€3m
GNI (21)
€3m
LAH (22)
€3m
MAR (23)
€2m
TP (22)
€2m
FJ (20)
€2m
Mariehamn's squad is €1m less valuable than VPS's (€2m vs €3m).
âïļ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HH (10)
€2m
KUP (9)
€2m
IT (9)
€2m
SJK (8)
€1m
VPS (5)
€1m
ILV (7)
€1m
AO (6)
€1m
GNI (6)
€1m
LAH (9)
€1m
TP (8)
€1m
MAR (9)
€1m
FJ (7)
€1m
Mariehamn and VPS have a similar attack value (both €1m).
ð§ Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KUP (9)
€3m
HH (6)
€1m
ILV (5)
€1m
IT (5)
€1m
AO (6)
€1m
SJK (9)
€1m
FJ (6)
€1m
VPS (5)
€1m
MAR (4)
€1m
GNI (5)
€1m
LAH (3)
€1m
TP (4)
€0m
Mariehamn and VPS have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
ðĄïļ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HH (12)
€3m
KUP (12)
€3m
IT (11)
€2m
ILV (11)
€2m
SJK (9)
€2m
VPS (12)
€1m
AO (11)
€1m
GNI (10)
€1m
LAH (10)
€1m
TP (10)
€1m
MAR (10)
€1m
FJ (7)
€1m
Mariehamn and VPS have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Finland: Veikkausliiga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Finland: Veikkausliiga stats & trends →
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KuPS
Inter Turku
HJK Helsinki
Gnistan
AC Oulu
Lahti
Turku PS
Ilves
SJK
FF Jaro