Maritimo vs Chaves Result & Analysis

Maritimo are favoured to win, with a 47 % chance of taking the match home, a 29 % chance of a draw and a 24 % chance of Chaves winning. The model expects 2.5 goals on average, with the most likely total being 2 goals at a 27 % probability. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, occurring with a 13.6 % chance. Maritimo, playing at home against an opponent of similar strength, average 1.46 goals scored and 0.92 conceded, while Chaves, on the road, average 1.45 goals scored and 1.55 conceded. The suggested picks include Over 2.5 cards at 94.7 %, Under 11.5 corners at 88.6 %, Over 3.5 cards at 86.8 %, Over 19.5 fouls at 82.4 %, Under 10.5 corners at 81.3 %, Under 3.5 at 76.0 %, Over 4.5 cards at 74.4 % and Over 1.5 at 72.3 %. The final result was a 1-3 away win.

The upset came as Marítimo, the pre-match favourite with a 47 % chance of victory, fell short, losing 1-3 to Chaves. The model’s call was wrong, and the final result was an away win. The favourite’s 47 % probability is noted, while the 29 % draw and 24 % away win odds remain in the background. The model’s selections were largely accurate: Over 2.5 cards hit at 94.7 %, Under 11.5 corners hit at 88.6 %, Over 3.5 cards hit at 86.8 %, Over 19.5 fouls hit at 82.4 %, Under 10.5 corners hit at 81.3 %, Under 3.5 missed at 76.0 %, Over 4.5 cards missed at 74.4 %, and Over 1.5 hit at 72.3 %. The match ended with Chaves extending their recent form, coming off a draw, while Marítimo also finished on a draw.