This opponent (Mafra) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Mafra
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
1.47
1.07
1.36
0.75
1.56
vs Stronger (9)
0.56
1.33
0.75
0.75
0.40
1.80
vs Similar (20)
1.00
1.55
1.20
1.60
0.80
1.50
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
1.00
-
-
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
27% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Maritimo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
70.4%
Under 1.5
29.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
43.0%
Under 2.5
57.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
22.1%
Under 3.5
77.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
48.4%
No
51.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.8%
1-0
11.7%
0-0
10.3%
2-0 ✓
9.3%
2-1
9.0%
0-1
7.5%
1-2
6.1%
3-0
4.5%
Maritimo goals ↓
Mafra goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
10%
7.5%
4.2%
1.4%
0.3%
1
12%
14%
6.1%
2.0%
0.5%
2
9.3%
9.0%
4.4%
1.4%
0.3%
3
4.5%
4.3%
2.1%
0.7%
0.2%
4
1.6%
1.5%
0.7%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Maritimo goals (down), columns = Mafra goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Tondela
1.88
Alverca
1.85
Vizela
1.82
Benfica B
1.62
Torreense
1.59
União de Leiria
1.53
Chaves
1.50
CF Os Belenenses
1.50
Feirense
1.44
Felgueiras 1932
1.35
Academico Viseu
1.32
Penafiel
1.32
Maritimo
1.26
Leixoes
1.21
FC Porto B
1.03
Portimonense
1.00
Pacos Ferreira
1.00
Oliveirense
0.85
Mafra
0.79
Maritimo is 0.47 points better than Mafra in terms of average points per game (1.26 vs 0.79).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Alverca
1.71
Tondela
1.71
Benfica B
1.56
Vizela
1.47
Torreense
1.44
União de Leiria
1.44
Penafiel
1.32
Academico Viseu
1.26
Felgueiras 1932
1.26
Maritimo
1.24
Chaves
1.18
Portimonense
1.12
Leixoes
1.09
FC Porto B
1.06
Feirense
1.03
Pacos Ferreira
1.03
CF Os Belenenses
1.00
Oliveirense
0.88
Mafra
0.85
Maritimo is 0.38 goals better than Mafra in terms of goals scored per game (1.24 vs 0.85).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Vizela
0.88
Chaves
1.00
Alverca
1.00
Feirense
1.00
Tondela
1.03
União de Leiria
1.09
Benfica B
1.12
Felgueiras 1932
1.12
Academico Viseu
1.21
Torreense
1.24
Leixoes
1.24
Penafiel
1.38
FC Porto B
1.38
Maritimo
1.41
Pacos Ferreira
1.44
CF Os Belenenses
1.50
Portimonense
1.59
Mafra
1.59
Oliveirense
1.88
Maritimo is 0.18 goals better than Mafra in terms of goals conceded per game (1.41 vs 1.59).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Vizela
62%
Felgueiras 1932
57%
Chaves
56%
União de Leiria
55%
Benfica B
53%
Oliveirense
51%
Maritimo
51%
FC Porto B
51%
Leixoes
51%
Mafra
50%
Torreense
50%
Feirense
50%
Academico Viseu
48%
Alverca
48%
Penafiel
47%
Tondela
47%
Portimonense
40%
Pacos Ferreira
39%
Maritimo is 0.4 percentage points better than Mafra in terms of average possession (51% vs 50%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Maritimo
For 3.5 · Against 6.0 · Total 9.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.1 · Against 2.1 · Total 4.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.8 · Against 4.2 · Total 8.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Mafra
For 2.7 · Against 2.7 · Total 5.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.3 · Against 1.6 · Total 3.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.4 · Against 3.1 · Total 5.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Maritimo
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.2
9.1
9.2
4.1
4.2
4.0
19.0
20.1
17.5
vs Stronger (8)
9.7
9.7
-
5.8
7.6
2.7
23.5
30.3
3.0
vs Similar (40)
9.0
8.9
9.1
3.8
3.3
4.2
17.8
17.2
18.5
vs Weaker (2)
9.5
9.0
10.0
4.5
4.0
5.0
24.5
29.0
20.0
% over line
55%
50%
62%
66%
68%
64%
52%
61%
38%
% under line
45%
50%
38%
34%
32%
36%
48%
39%
62%
This opponent (Mafra) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Mafra
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.2
9.3
9.0
2.9
2.8
3.0
17.4
19.8
15.1
vs Stronger (15)
9.5
12.0
7.0
2.5
2.4
2.6
19.8
22.2
17.8
vs Similar (34)
9.0
8.2
10.2
3.1
2.9
3.4
16.3
18.8
13.8
vs Weaker (1)
-
-
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
47%
45%
50%
50%
44%
56%
48%
50%
47%
% under line
53%
55%
50%
50%
56%
44%
52%
50%
53%
This opponent (Maritimo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Torreense
11.1
Oliveirense
11.0
Portimonense
11.0
FC Porto B
10.8
Tondela
10.7
Chaves
10.6
Academico Viseu
10.5
Pacos Ferreira
10.4
União de Leiria
10.4
Penafiel
10.3
Vizela
10.2
Benfica B
10.2
Feirense
9.6
Leixoes
9.4
CF Os Belenenses
9.3
Mafra
9.3
Maritimo
9.3
Felgueiras 1932
9.0
Alverca
7.7
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Felgueiras 1932
5.7
Oliveirense
5.6
Leixoes
5.5
Maritimo
5.4
Benfica B
5.3
Chaves
5.3
Torreense
5.2
Penafiel
5.2
Tondela
5.1
União de Leiria
5.0
Pacos Ferreira
5.0
Portimonense
4.9
Vizela
4.8
FC Porto B
4.5
Feirense
4.5
Academico Viseu
4.5
Alverca
4.3
CF Os Belenenses
4.1
Mafra
3.9
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
CF Os Belenenses
25.0
Leixoes
24.0
Tondela
23.3
Vizela
20.9
Feirense
20.5
Pacos Ferreira
20.2
Chaves
20.0
Oliveirense
19.8
União de Leiria
19.8
Maritimo
19.4
Portimonense
19.2
Academico Viseu
18.8
Torreense
18.5
FC Porto B
18.2
Mafra
17.9
Penafiel
17.9
Benfica B
16.7
Alverca
7.1
Felgueiras 1932
7.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
50.8%
Under 9.5
49.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
72.9%
Under 3.5
27.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
0.2%
Under 21.5
99.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Maritimo
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.70
0.43
0.64
0.50
0.75
vs Stronger (6)
0.17
1.17
0.33
1.00
0.00
1.33
vs Similar (24)
0.54
0.58
0.45
0.55
0.62
0.62
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Mafra) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Mafra
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.50
0.43
0.57
0.38
0.44
vs Stronger (9)
0.44
0.33
0.50
0.25
0.40
0.40
vs Similar (20)
0.40
0.60
0.40
0.70
0.40
0.50
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Maritimo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Maritimo over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maritimo over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maritimo over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mafra over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mafra over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mafra over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Maritimo
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.77
0.64
0.71
0.81
0.81
vs Stronger (6)
0.83
0.33
0.67
0.00
1.00
0.67
vs Similar (24)
0.71
0.88
0.64
0.91
0.77
0.85
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Mafra) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Mafra
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.97
0.64
0.79
0.38
1.12
vs Stronger (9)
0.11
1.00
0.25
0.50
0.00
1.40
vs Similar (20)
0.60
0.95
0.80
0.90
0.40
1.00
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
1.00
-
-
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Maritimo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Maritimo over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maritimo over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maritimo over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mafra over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mafra over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mafra over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 25.5 fouls
100.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 23.5 fouls
100.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 21.5 fouls
99.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 19.5 fouls
99.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
87.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
77.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
72.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
72.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
70.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Maritimo
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Alexandre Guedes50%
Fábio China25%
Ibrahima Guirassy20%
Martim Tavares20%
Patrick Fernandes17%
Igor Julião0%
Romain Correia0%
Vladan Danilović0%
Carlos Daniel0%
Enrique Peña Zauner0%
Michel Costa0%
Erivaldo Almeida0%
Tomás Domingos0%
Noah Madsen0%
Afonso Freitas0%
Fabio Blanco0%
Gonçalo Tabuaço0%
Francisco França0%
Dani Benchi0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Igor Julião50%
Tomás Domingos50%
Ibrahima Guirassy40%
Michel Costa33%
Afonso Freitas33%
Alexandre Guedes25%
Fábio China25%
Martim Tavares20%
Patrick Fernandes0%
Romain Correia0%
Vladan Danilović0%
Carlos Daniel0%
Enrique Peña Zauner0%
Erivaldo Almeida0%
Noah Madsen0%
Fabio Blanco0%
Gonçalo Tabuaço0%
Francisco França0%
Dani Benchi0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Fábio China25%
Tomás Domingos25%
Francisco França17%
Igor Julião0%
Alexandre Guedes0%
Patrick Fernandes0%
Romain Correia0%
Vladan Danilović0%
Carlos Daniel0%
Enrique Peña Zauner0%
Ibrahima Guirassy0%
Michel Costa0%
Erivaldo Almeida0%
Noah Madsen0%
Afonso Freitas0%
Fabio Blanco0%
Gonçalo Tabuaço0%
Martim Tavares0%
Dani Benchi0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Patrick Fernandes50%
Alexandre Guedes25%
Fabio Blanco25%
Noah Madsen20%
Igor Julião0%
Fábio China0%
Romain Correia0%
Vladan Danilović0%
Carlos Daniel0%
Enrique Peña Zauner0%
Ibrahima Guirassy0%
Michel Costa0%
Erivaldo Almeida0%
Tomás Domingos0%
Afonso Freitas0%
Gonçalo Tabuaço0%
Francisco França0%
Martim Tavares0%
Dani Benchi0%
Mafra
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Rodrigo Matos33%
Pontus Texel25%
Stanley Iheanacho25%
Rodrigo Freitas0%
Bryan Passi0%
Vítor Gonçalves0%
Guilherme0%
Martin Fraisl0%
Chris Kouakou0%
Diogo Capitão0%
Miguel Falé0%
Andreas Hansen0%
Friday Etim0%
Beni Junior0%
Yacouba Maiga0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Guilherme40%
Rodrigo Freitas33%
Martin Fraisl25%
Stanley Iheanacho25%
Yacouba Maiga25%
Bryan Passi0%
Vítor Gonçalves0%
Chris Kouakou0%
Diogo Capitão0%
Miguel Falé0%
Rodrigo Matos0%
Andreas Hansen0%
Pontus Texel0%
Friday Etim0%
Beni Junior0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Friday Etim33%
Bryan Passi25%
Vítor Gonçalves25%
Rodrigo Freitas0%
Guilherme0%
Martin Fraisl0%
Chris Kouakou0%
Diogo Capitão0%
Miguel Falé0%
Rodrigo Matos0%
Andreas Hansen0%
Pontus Texel0%
Beni Junior0%
Stanley Iheanacho0%
Yacouba Maiga0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Rodrigo Matos33%
Friday Etim33%
Stanley Iheanacho25%
Guilherme20%
Rodrigo Freitas0%
Bryan Passi0%
Vítor Gonçalves0%
Martin Fraisl0%
Chris Kouakou0%
Diogo Capitão0%
Miguel Falé0%
Andreas Hansen0%
Pontus Texel0%
Beni Junior0%
Yacouba Maiga0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
Portugal: Segunda Liga 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Portugal: Segunda Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Tondela
Alverca
Vizela
Benfica B
Torreense
União de Leiria
Chaves
Feirense
Felgueiras 1932
Academico Viseu
Penafiel
Leixoes
Pacos Ferreira
FC Porto B
Portimonense
Oliveirense
CF Os Belenenses