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Maritsa Plovdiv vs Marek Result & Analysis

Date: 18/09/2023
Time: 14:00
Final 0-1
Maritsa Plovdiv
Maritsa Plovdiv
Vs
51%
28%
21%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Marek
Marek
Bulgaria: Second League
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Maritsa Plovdiv win✗ Miss
51.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
28.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Marek win✓ Hit
20.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Maritsa PlovdivMaritsa Plovdiv

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-403L13L21W13L31W14L33D10W20W02LH·CSK30/05A·STR04/06H·SPA15/07A·CSK22/07H·SPO31/07A·YAN05/08H·CHE13/08A·BDI20/08H·BEL29/08A·SPA03/09
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
2.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.171.471.621.000.642.00
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (27)1.191.521.641.070.692.00
vs Weaker (3)1.001.001.500.500.002.00
Clean sheet %30% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Marek) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

MarekMarek

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-420W00D10W10W00D11D04L10WA·CHE18/07H·MON23/07A·BDI29/07H·CHE05/08A·BEL15/08H·LIT20/08A·SPA27/08H·LUD01/09
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.750.620.750.250.751.00
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (8)0.750.620.750.250.751.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %75% (+40pp vs league)
This opponent (Maritsa Plovdiv) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%20%27%10%019%127%221%313%46%54%6+
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
70.8%
Under 1.5
29.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
43.6%
Under 2.5
56.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
22.6%
Under 3.5
77.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
47.4%
No
52.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.3%
1-0
12.4%
2-0
10.4%
0-0
10.1%
2-1
9.3%
0-1 ✓
6.7%
1-2
5.4%
3-0
5.3%
Maritsa Plovdiv goals ↓
Marek goals →
01234
010%6.7%3.5%1.1%0.2%
112%13%5.4%1.6%0.4%
210%9.3%4.1%1.2%0.3%
35.3%4.7%2.1%0.6%0.1%
42.0%1.8%0.8%0.2%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Maritsa Plovdiv goals (down), columns = Marek goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Spartak Varna
2.12
Septemvri Sofia
1.91
Marek
1.79
Montana
1.68
Strumska Slava
1.50
Dobrudzha
1.47
CSKA 1948 Sofia II
1.47
Yantra 2019
1.38
Dunav Ruse
1.35
Spartak Pleven
1.32
Litex
1.32
Ludogorets II
1.29
Belasitsa
1.26
Sportist Svoge
1.18
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
1.12
Chernomorets Balchik
1.06
Maritsa Plovdiv
0.88
Bdin
0.65
Maritsa Plovdiv is 0.91 points worse than Marek in terms of average points per game (0.88 vs 1.79).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Spartak Varna
1.76
Septemvri Sofia
1.35
Montana
1.35
Dobrudzha
1.26
Yantra 2019
1.15
CSKA 1948 Sofia II
1.15
Ludogorets II
1.15
Belasitsa
1.09
Marek
1.06
Chernomorets Balchik
1.06
Sportist Svoge
1.06
Strumska Slava
1.00
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
0.97
Maritsa Plovdiv
0.91
Dunav Ruse
0.88
Litex
0.88
Spartak Pleven
0.85
Bdin
0.56
Maritsa Plovdiv is 0.15 goals worse than Marek in terms of goals scored per game (0.91 vs 1.06).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Marek
0.76
Septemvri Sofia
0.76
Spartak Varna
0.82
Strumska Slava
0.82
Montana
0.91
Spartak Pleven
0.94
Belasitsa
0.97
Dobrudzha
1.00
Dunav Ruse
1.06
CSKA 1948 Sofia II
1.06
Litex
1.06
Yantra 2019
1.09
Ludogorets II
1.15
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
1.21
Sportist Svoge
1.32
Chernomorets Balchik
1.44
Bdin
1.47
Maritsa Plovdiv
1.65
Maritsa Plovdiv is 0.88 goals worse than Marek in terms of goals conceded per game (1.65 vs 0.76).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Maritsa PlovdivMaritsa Plovdiv

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D12L10W11D11D12L22D10W10W01LH·CSK30/05A·STR04/06H·SPA15/07A·CSK22/07H·SPO31/07A·YAN05/08H·CHE13/08A·BDI20/08H·BEL29/08A·SPA03/09
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.530.630.620.380.430.93
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (27)0.560.590.640.360.460.85
vs Weaker (3)0.331.000.500.500.002.00
Clean sheet %53% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Marek) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

MarekMarek

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-220W00D00D00D00D00D01L00DA·CHE18/07H·MON23/07A·BDI29/07H·CHE05/08A·BEL15/08H·LIT20/08A·SPA27/08H·LUD01/09
Avg total
0.4
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.250.120.000.000.500.25
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (8)0.250.120.000.000.500.25
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %88% (+53pp vs league)
This opponent (Maritsa Plovdiv) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Maritsa Plovdiv over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maritsa Plovdiv over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maritsa Plovdiv over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marek over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marek over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marek over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Maritsa PlovdivMaritsa Plovdiv

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-303L01L11D02L20W02L11D00D10W01LH·CSK30/05A·STR04/06H·SPA15/07A·CSK22/07H·SPO31/07A·YAN05/08H·CHE13/08A·BDI20/08H·BEL29/08A·SPA03/09
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.630.831.000.620.211.07
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (27)0.630.931.000.710.231.15
vs Weaker (3)0.670.001.000.000.000.00
Clean sheet %43% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Marek) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

MarekMarek

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D00D10W10W00D11D03L10WA·CHE18/07H·MON23/07A·BDI29/07H·CHE05/08A·BEL15/08H·LIT20/08A·SPA27/08H·LUD01/09
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.500.500.750.250.250.75
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (8)0.500.500.750.250.250.75
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %75% (+40pp vs league)
This opponent (Maritsa Plovdiv) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Maritsa Plovdiv over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maritsa Plovdiv over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maritsa Plovdiv over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marek over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marek over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marek over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.577.4%-------✓ Hit
Over 1.570.8%-------✗ Miss

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SV (22)
€6m
DR (22)
€4m
SS (20)
€3m
Y2 (18)
€3m
C1B (19)
€2m
MON (17)
€2m
MAR (19)
€2m
SP (19)
€1m
DOB (10)
€1m
LI (13)
€1m
SS (12)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SV (7)
€2m
DR (6)
€1m
Y2 (6)
€1m
SS (8)
€1m
MON (8)
€1m
C1B (4)
€1m
SP (8)
€1m
LI (6)
€1m
DOB (5)
€0m
MAR (4)
€0m
SS (5)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DR (5)
€1m
SV (4)
€1m
SS (4)
€1m
C1B (6)
€1m
MAR (6)
€1m
DOB (3)
€0m
Y2 (2)
€0m
MON (3)
€0m
SP (5)
€0m
LI (3)
€0m
SS (4)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SV (11)
€3m
DR (11)
€2m
SS (8)
€2m
Y2 (10)
€2m
MAR (9)
€1m
C1B (9)
€1m
MON (6)
€1m
SP (6)
€0m
LI (4)
€0m
DOB (2)
€0m
SS (3)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

No previous meetings
0
MP wins
0
Draws
0
MAR wins

Head-to-head

Maritsa Plovdiv vs Marek · H/A from MP
DateH/AGameScore
No games.

Maritsa PlovdivMaritsa Plovdiv

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
03/09/23ASpartak Varna Vs MP2-0
29/08/23HMP Vs Belasitsa2-0
20/08/23ABdin Vs MP0-1
13/08/23HMP Vs Chernomorets 1919 Burgas3-3
05/08/23AYantra 2019 Vs MP4-1
31/07/23HMP Vs Sportist Svoge3-1
22/07/23ACSKA 1948 Sofia II Vs MP3-1
15/07/23HMP Vs Spartak Pleven2-1
04/06/23AStrumska Slava Vs MP3-1
30/05/23HMP Vs CSKA 1948 Sofia II0-3

MarekMarek

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
01/09/23HMAR Vs Ludogorets II1-0
27/08/23ASpartak Varna Vs MAR4-0
20/08/23HMAR Vs Litex1-1
15/08/23ABelasitsa Vs MAR0-0
05/08/23HMAR Vs Chernomorets Balchik1-0
29/07/23ABdin Vs MAR0-1
23/07/23HMAR Vs Montana0-0
18/07/23AChernomorets 1919 Burgas Vs MAR0-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Maritsa Plovdiv
Maritsa Plovdiv
Bulgaria: Second League
Recent: 4 Wins / 1 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDWWL1.43
HomeLWWDW2.14
AwayLLLWL0.71
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %43%67%19%
AVG goals2.602.522.67
Over 1.5 %71%67%76%
Over 2.5 %57%57%57%
Over 3.5 %26%19%33%
Scored1.171.670.67
Conceded1.430.862.00
BTTS45%43%48%
Clean Sheet33%48%19%
Corners---
Cards---
Marek
Marek
Bulgaria: Second League
Recent: 4 Wins / 3 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDDLW1.88
HomeDWDW2.00
AwayWWDL1.75
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %50%50%50%
AVG goals1.381.001.75
Over 1.5 %38%25%50%
Over 2.5 %12%0%25%
Over 3.5 %12%0%25%
Scored0.750.750.75
Conceded0.620.251.00
BTTS12%25%0%
Clean Sheet75%75%75%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Spartak VarnaSpartak Varna3472
68%
2.1
6028+32
2.6
79%
50%
24%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2131.80.8
-
2Septemvri SofiaSeptemvri Sofia3465
56%
1.9
4626+20
2.1
74%
38%
9%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1121.40.8
-
3MarekMarek3461
47%
1.8
3626+10
1.8
50%
29%
15%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0111.10.8
-
4MontanaMontana3457
47%
1.7
4631+15
2.3
68%
35%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.40.9
-
5Strumska SlavaStrumska Slava3451
41%
1.5
3428+6
1.8
53%
21%
15%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.00.8
-
6DobrudzhaDobrudzha3450
41%
1.5
4334+9
2.3
68%
32%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.31.0
-
7CSKA 1948 Sofia IICSKA 1948 Sofia II3450
38%
1.5
3936+3
2.2
65%
41%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.1
-
8Yantra 2019Yantra 20193447
35%
1.4
3937+2
2.2
71%
47%
15%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1021.11.1
-
9Dunav RuseDunav Ruse3446
35%
1.4
3036-6
1.9
71%
24%
6%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1120.91.1
-
10Spartak PlevenSpartak Pleven3445
38%
1.3
2932-3
1.8
53%
26%
6%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1000.90.9
-
11LitexLitex3445
35%
1.3
3036-6
1.9
56%
38%
9%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.91.1
-
12Ludogorets IILudogorets II3444
32%
1.3
3939+0
2.3
68%
38%
24%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1001.11.1
-
13BelasitsaBelasitsa3443
35%
1.3
3733+4
2.1
65%
29%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.0
-
14Sportist SvogeSportist Svoge3440
29%
1.2
3645-9
2.4
71%
35%
24%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.11.3
-
15Chernomorets 1919 BurgasChernomorets 1919 Burgas3438
26%
1.1
3341-8
2.2
68%
35%
15%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.01.2
-
16Chernomorets BalchikChernomorets Balchik3436
29%
1.1
3649-13
2.5
76%
47%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.4
-
17Maritsa PlovdivMaritsa Plovdiv3430
26%
0.9
3156-25
2.6
65%
41%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.91.6
-
18BdinBdin3422
15%
0.6
1950-31
2.0
47%
26%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.61.5
-
Bulgaria: Second League 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Bulgaria: Second League stats & trends →

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