Defensive solidity is the headline, with both sides averaging just over one goal per match against similar opposition. The model sees a 37% chance of a home win, 35% for a draw, and 29% for an away win, making a Marko victory the favourite. The expected total is 1.9 goals, with the most likely total of two goals at 28%. The single most probable scoreline is 0-0, carrying a 16.9% chance. Marko’s home form shows 1.38 goals scored and 1.0 conceded, while Kallithea’s away form is 0.9 scored and 0.7 conceded. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.9%), Under 6.5 (99.7%), Away under 3.5 goals (98.9%), Under 5.5 (98.8%), Home under 3.5 goals (98.1%), Under 4.5 (95.9%), Away under 2.5 goals (94.4%), and Home under 2.5 goals (91.9%). Marko’s recent draw streak and Kallithea’s recent defeat hint at a tight, low-scoring encounter.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Marko win
36.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
34.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Kallithea win
28.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Marko
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
1.00
1.40
1.00
0.87
1.00
vs Stronger (3)
1.00
2.33
2.00
2.00
0.50
2.50
vs Similar (25)
1.16
0.92
1.38
1.00
0.92
0.83
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Kallithea) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kallithea
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
0.90
1.12
1.06
1.15
0.69
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
2.00
-
-
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (25)
1.04
0.92
1.13
1.07
0.90
0.70
vs Weaker (4)
1.75
0.50
1.00
1.00
2.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Marko) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 1.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
56.9%
Under 1.5
43.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
28.6%
Under 2.5
71.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
11.9%
Under 3.5
88.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
37.8%
No
62.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-0
16.9%
1-1
14.7%
1-0
14.3%
0-1
12.0%
2-0
7.8%
2-1
6.7%
1-2
5.7%
0-2
5.7%
Marko goals ↓
Kallithea goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
17%
12%
5.7%
1.6%
0.3%
1
14%
15%
5.7%
1.6%
0.4%
2
7.8%
6.7%
2.9%
0.8%
0.2%
3
2.6%
2.3%
1.0%
0.3%
0.1%
4
0.7%
0.6%
0.2%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Marko goals (down), columns = Kallithea goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Panionios
2.08
Niki Volos
2.00
Larisa
1.80
Anagennisi Karditsas
1.71
Marko
1.67
PAOK II
1.64
Kallithea
1.61
Ellas Syros
1.61
Asteras Tripolis II
1.54
Nestos Chrisoupolis
1.43
Pyrgos 1968
1.41
Zakynthos
1.41
Panthrakikos
1.41
Panserraikos
1.36
Olympiakos Piraeus II
1.29
Apollon Pontou
1.18
Marko is 0.06 points better than Kallithea in terms of average points per game (1.67 vs 1.61).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Niki Volos
1.92
PAOK II
1.57
Larisa
1.48
Panionios
1.46
Ellas Syros
1.43
Asteras Tripolis II
1.21
Anagennisi Karditsas
1.17
Pyrgos 1968
1.16
Zakynthos
1.16
Panthrakikos
1.16
Kallithea
1.14
Marko
1.12
Panserraikos
1.12
Olympiakos Piraeus II
1.08
Nestos Chrisoupolis
1.07
Apollon Pontou
0.97
Marko is 0.02 goals worse than Kallithea in terms of goals scored per game (1.12 vs 1.14).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Niki Volos
0.50
Panionios
0.54
Marko
0.71
Anagennisi Karditsas
0.75
Kallithea
0.79
Ellas Syros
0.86
Larisa
0.89
Nestos Chrisoupolis
0.93
PAOK II
1.11
Asteras Tripolis II
1.12
Pyrgos 1968
1.13
Zakynthos
1.13
Panthrakikos
1.13
Panserraikos
1.17
Apollon Pontou
1.35
Olympiakos Piraeus II
1.58
Marko is 0.08 goals better than Kallithea in terms of goals conceded per game (0.71 vs 0.79).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Marko or Draw
71.4%
Avg Implied -
37%
35%
29%
covers Marko + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Marko or Kallithea
65.2%
Avg Implied -
37%
35%
29%
covers Marko + Kallithea
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Kallithea
63.4%
Avg Implied -
37%
35%
29%
covers Draw + Kallithea
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Marko over/under 0.5
Over
63.4%
Under
36.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marko over/under 1.5
Over
26.6%
Under
73.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marko over/under 2.5
Over
8.1%
Under
91.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marko over/under 3.5
Over
1.9%
Under
98.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kallithea over/under 0.5
Over
57.6%
Under
42.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kallithea over/under 1.5
Over
21.2%
Under
78.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kallithea over/under 2.5
Over
5.6%
Under
94.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kallithea over/under 3.5
Over
1.1%
Under
98.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Marko, so a minus line means Marko give that many goals of a start and Kallithea receive them. At -1, Marko must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Marko win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Marko)
Marko -2
4.2%
Draw -2
10.4%
Kallithea +2
85.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Marko)
Marko -1
14.6%
Draw -1
22.0%
Kallithea +1
63.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Marko)
Marko +1
71.4%
Draw +1
18.6%
Kallithea -1
10.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Marko)
Marko +2
90.0%
Draw +2
7.5%
Kallithea -2
2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Marko
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.43
0.73
0.40
0.33
0.47
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
1.67
1.00
1.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (25)
0.60
0.32
0.77
0.38
0.42
0.25
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
63% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Kallithea) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kallithea
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.53
0.41
0.65
0.31
0.38
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (25)
0.32
0.60
0.40
0.67
0.20
0.50
vs Weaker (4)
0.50
0.25
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Marko) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
64.5%
Under 0.5
35.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
28.4%
Under 1.5
71.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
9.1%
Under 2.5
90.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Marko over/under 0.5 HT
Over
41.8%
Under
58.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marko over/under 1.5 HT
Over
12.0%
Under
88.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marko over/under 2.5 HT
Over
2.1%
Under
97.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kallithea over/under 0.5 HT
Over
35.7%
Under
64.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kallithea over/under 1.5 HT
Over
7.1%
Under
92.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kallithea over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.2%
Under
98.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Marko
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.57
0.67
0.60
0.53
0.53
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
0.67
1.00
1.00
0.50
0.50
vs Similar (25)
0.56
0.60
0.62
0.62
0.50
0.58
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Kallithea) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kallithea
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.37
0.71
0.41
0.85
0.31
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
2.00
-
-
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (25)
0.72
0.32
0.73
0.40
0.70
0.20
vs Weaker (4)
1.25
0.25
0.50
0.50
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
73% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Marko) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
73.2%
Under 0.5
26.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
37.5%
Under 1.5
62.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
14.3%
Under 2.5
85.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Marko over/under 0.5 2H
Over
51.1%
Under
48.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marko over/under 1.5 2H
Over
14.6%
Under
85.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marko over/under 2.5 2H
Over
3.3%
Under
96.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kallithea over/under 0.5 2H
Over
41.6%
Under
58.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kallithea over/under 1.5 2H
Over
11.1%
Under
88.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kallithea over/under 2.5 2H
Over
1.8%
Under
98.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
99.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
98.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
98.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
98.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
98.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
96.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
95.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
94.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
92.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
91.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
90.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
90.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
88.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
88.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
88.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
85.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
85.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
85.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
78.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 goals
73.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
73.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 1.5 HT goals
71.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5
71.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
71.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
71.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Kallithea · 2024/25
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Migouel Alfarela47%
Giannis Loukinas17%
Keelan Lebon15%
Elia Giani13%
Thierry Moutinho10%
Mathieu Valbuena9%
Pyry Soiri9%
Nicolas Isimat-Mirin8%
Miguel Mellado7%
Roberts Uldriķis7%
Nikolaos Kenourgios5%
Mor Ndiaye4%
Triantafyllos Pasalidis4%
Javier Matilla4%
Demethryus3%
Ioannis Gelios0%
Georgios Manthatis0%
James McGarry0%
Bernabé Barragán0%
Andreas Vasilogiannis0%
Matěj Hanousek0%
Josua Mejías0%
Giannis Tsivelekidis0%
Georgios Vrakas0%
Alessandro Mercati0%
Andrei Moțoc0%
Dimitrios Metaxas0%
Samba Diba0%
François Régis Mughe0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Triantafyllos Pasalidis46%
Josua Mejías38%
Nicolas Isimat-Mirin33%
Alessandro Mercati30%
Georgios Vrakas27%
Miguel Mellado27%
Mor Ndiaye26%
Andreas Vasilogiannis25%
Andrei Moțoc25%
Javier Matilla23%
Elia Giani22%
Georgios Manthatis21%
François Régis Mughe20%
Nikolaos Kenourgios15%
Dimitrios Metaxas14%
Giannis Tsivelekidis14%
James McGarry12%
Samba Diba12%
Thierry Moutinho10%
Matěj Hanousek8%
Giannis Loukinas7%
Mathieu Valbuena6%
Pyry Soiri6%
Demethryus6%
Migouel Alfarela6%
Ioannis Gelios0%
Bernabé Barragán0%
Roberts Uldriķis0%
Keelan Lebon0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Mor Ndiaye13%
Thierry Moutinho10%
Mathieu Valbuena9%
Demethryus9%
Elia Giani9%
Andrei Moțoc8%
Javier Matilla8%
Keelan Lebon8%
Pyry Soiri6%
Josua Mejías4%
Georgios Manthatis4%
Giannis Loukinas3%
Alessandro Mercati3%
Nicolas Isimat-Mirin0%
Migouel Alfarela0%
Ioannis Gelios0%
Triantafyllos Pasalidis0%
Miguel Mellado0%
Nikolaos Kenourgios0%
James McGarry0%
Bernabé Barragán0%
Roberts Uldriķis0%
Andreas Vasilogiannis0%
Matěj Hanousek0%
Giannis Tsivelekidis0%
Georgios Vrakas0%
Dimitrios Metaxas0%
Samba Diba0%
François Régis Mughe0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Migouel Alfarela29%
Roberts Uldriķis20%
Giannis Loukinas14%
Elia Giani13%
Thierry Moutinho10%
Andreas Vasilogiannis8%
Demethryus6%
Alessandro Mercati3%
Mathieu Valbuena3%
Nicolas Isimat-Mirin0%
Pyry Soiri0%
Ioannis Gelios0%
Georgios Manthatis0%
Triantafyllos Pasalidis0%
Miguel Mellado0%
Nikolaos Kenourgios0%
James McGarry0%
Bernabé Barragán0%
Matěj Hanousek0%
Javier Matilla0%
Keelan Lebon0%
Josua Mejías0%
Mor Ndiaye0%
Giannis Tsivelekidis0%
Georgios Vrakas0%
Andrei Moțoc0%
Dimitrios Metaxas0%
Samba Diba0%
François Régis Mughe0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PAN (27)
€6m
NV (24)
€6m
PI (21)
€5m
KAL (27)
€5m
PAN (24)
€5m
LAR (23)
€5m
MAR (27)
€5m
AK (25)
€4m
OPI (22)
€4m
ATI (23)
€4m
NC (23)
€3m
ES (20)
€3m
AP (16)
€2m
Marko and Kallithea have a similar squad value (both €5m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PAN (13)
€3m
PAN (11)
€2m
PI (9)
€2m
MAR (11)
€2m
NV (7)
€2m
OPI (9)
€2m
LAR (7)
€2m
KAL (9)
€2m
AK (7)
€1m
NC (9)
€1m
ES (9)
€1m
ATI (6)
€1m
AP (6)
€1m
Marko and Kallithea have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NV (6)
€1m
PI (4)
€1m
ATI (7)
€1m
PAN (3)
€1m
AK (6)
€1m
LAR (3)
€1m
KAL (4)
€1m
NC (5)
€1m
AP (4)
€1m
ES (3)
€1m
MAR (4)
€0m
OPI (3)
€0m
PAN (1)
€0m
Marko and Kallithea have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KAL (14)
€3m
PAN (13)
€3m
NV (11)
€3m
LAR (13)
€2m
MAR (12)
€2m
PI (8)
€2m
OPI (10)
€2m
PAN (10)
€2m
AK (12)
€2m
NC (9)
€1m
ATI (10)
€1m
ES (8)
€1m
AP (6)
€1m
Marko and Kallithea have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Greece: Super League 2 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Greece: Super League 2 stats & trends →
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Panserraikos
Ellas Syros
Panionios
Anagennisi Karditsas
Niki Volos
Zakynthos
PAOK II
Nestos Chrisoupolis
Apollon Pontou
Asteras Tripolis II
Olympiakos Piraeus II
Larisa
Pyrgos 1968
Panthrakikos