The model favours an away win, with Larisa’s 45% chance of triumph outweighing Marko’s 25% and the 30% draw. The expected total of 2.4 goals points to a modestly low-scoring affair, and the most likely scoreline is 1-1, a 14% probability. Marko, at home against a similarly-sized opponent, averages 1.38 goals scored and 1.0 conceded, while Larisa, on the road, averages 1.42 scored and 1.83 conceded. Marko’s recent five games (DDWWL) leave them on a draw, whereas Larisa’s last five (WWLWD) see them on a two-game winning run, having beaten Kallithea 3-1. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.7%), Under 6.5 (98.9%), Home under 3.5 goals (98.2%), Under 5.5 (96.5%), Away under 3.5 goals (94.6%), Home under 2.5 goals (92.3%), Under 4.5 (90.6%) and Away +2 handicap (90.6%). All probabilities are expressed as percentages.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Marko win
25.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
29.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Larisa win
45.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Marko
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
1.00
1.40
1.00
0.87
1.00
vs Stronger (3)
1.00
2.33
2.00
2.00
0.50
2.50
vs Similar (25)
1.16
0.92
1.38
1.00
0.92
0.83
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Larisa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Larisa
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
1.50
0.86
1.36
1.19
1.62
vs Stronger (8)
0.75
1.38
1.00
1.75
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (22)
1.14
1.55
0.80
1.20
1.42
1.83
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-15pp vs league)
This opponent (Marko) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
70.0%
Under 1.5
30.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
42.5%
Under 2.5
57.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
21.7%
Under 3.5
78.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
48.3%
No
51.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.0%
0-1
11.7%
0-0
10.5%
0-2
9.1%
1-2
8.9%
1-0
7.8%
2-1
6.2%
2-0
4.4%
Marko goals ↓
Larisa goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
11%
12%
9.1%
4.2%
1.5%
1
7.8%
14%
8.9%
4.2%
1.5%
2
4.4%
6.2%
4.4%
2.0%
0.7%
3
1.4%
2.0%
1.4%
0.7%
0.2%
4
0.4%
0.5%
0.3%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Marko goals (down), columns = Larisa goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Panionios
2.08
Niki Volos
2.00
Larisa
1.80
Anagennisi Karditsas
1.71
Marko
1.67
PAOK II
1.64
Kallithea
1.61
Ellas Syros
1.61
Asteras Tripolis II
1.54
Nestos Chrisoupolis
1.43
Pyrgos 1968
1.41
Zakynthos
1.41
Panthrakikos
1.41
Panserraikos
1.36
Olympiakos Piraeus II
1.29
Apollon Pontou
1.18
Marko is 0.13 points worse than Larisa in terms of average points per game (1.67 vs 1.80).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Niki Volos
1.92
PAOK II
1.57
Larisa
1.48
Panionios
1.46
Ellas Syros
1.43
Asteras Tripolis II
1.21
Anagennisi Karditsas
1.17
Pyrgos 1968
1.16
Zakynthos
1.16
Panthrakikos
1.16
Kallithea
1.14
Marko
1.12
Panserraikos
1.12
Olympiakos Piraeus II
1.08
Nestos Chrisoupolis
1.07
Apollon Pontou
0.97
Marko is 0.35 goals worse than Larisa in terms of goals scored per game (1.12 vs 1.48).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Niki Volos
0.50
Panionios
0.54
Marko
0.71
Anagennisi Karditsas
0.75
Kallithea
0.79
Ellas Syros
0.86
Larisa
0.89
Nestos Chrisoupolis
0.93
PAOK II
1.11
Asteras Tripolis II
1.12
Pyrgos 1968
1.13
Zakynthos
1.13
Panthrakikos
1.13
Panserraikos
1.17
Apollon Pontou
1.35
Olympiakos Piraeus II
1.58
Marko is 0.18 goals better than Larisa in terms of goals conceded per game (0.71 vs 0.89).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Marko or Draw
54.6%
Avg Implied -
25%
30%
45%
covers Marko + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Marko or Larisa
70.4%
Avg Implied -
25%
30%
45%
covers Marko + Larisa
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Larisa
75.0%
Avg Implied -
25%
30%
45%
covers Draw + Larisa
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Marko over/under 0.5
Over
62.4%
Under
37.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marko over/under 1.5
Over
25.7%
Under
74.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marko over/under 2.5
Over
7.7%
Under
92.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marko over/under 3.5
Over
1.8%
Under
98.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Larisa over/under 0.5
Over
75.4%
Under
24.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Larisa over/under 1.5
Over
40.9%
Under
59.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Larisa over/under 2.5
Over
16.7%
Under
83.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Larisa over/under 3.5
Over
5.4%
Under
94.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Marko, so a minus line means Marko give that many goals of a start and Larisa receive them. At -1, Marko must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Marko win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Marko)
Marko -2
2.6%
Draw -2
6.8%
Larisa +2
90.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Marko)
Marko -1
9.4%
Draw -1
15.6%
Larisa +1
75.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Marko)
Marko +1
54.6%
Draw +1
22.9%
Larisa -1
22.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Marko)
Marko +2
77.5%
Draw +2
14.0%
Larisa -2
8.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Marko
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.43
0.73
0.40
0.33
0.47
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
1.67
1.00
1.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (25)
0.60
0.32
0.77
0.38
0.42
0.25
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
63% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Larisa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Larisa
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.77
0.43
0.71
0.38
0.81
vs Stronger (8)
0.25
0.62
0.50
0.75
0.00
0.50
vs Similar (22)
0.45
0.82
0.40
0.70
0.50
0.92
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Marko) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Marko over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marko over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marko over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Larisa over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Larisa over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Larisa over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Marko
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.57
0.67
0.60
0.53
0.53
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
0.67
1.00
1.00
0.50
0.50
vs Similar (25)
0.56
0.60
0.62
0.62
0.50
0.58
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Larisa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Larisa
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.73
0.43
0.64
0.81
0.81
vs Stronger (8)
0.50
0.75
0.50
1.00
0.50
0.50
vs Similar (22)
0.68
0.73
0.40
0.50
0.92
0.92
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Marko) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Marko over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marko over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marko over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Larisa over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Larisa over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Larisa over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
98.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
96.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
94.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
92.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
90.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
90.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
83.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
78.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
77.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
75.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
75.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
75.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 goals
74.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
70.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
70.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Larisa · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Ángelo Sagal21%
Ľubomír Tupta20%
Giannis Pasas15%
Petros Bagalianis14%
Leandro Garate14%
Amr Warda12%
Facundo Pérez12%
Gaël Kakuta8%
Soufiane Chakla8%
Konstantinos Apostolakis7%
Yvann Maçon6%
Jani Atanasov3%
Christos Giousis0%
Dylan Batubinsika0%
Athanasios Papageorgiou0%
Nikolaos Melissas0%
Epameinondas Pantelakis0%
Paschalis Staikos0%
Panagiotis Deligiannidis0%
Theodoros Venetikidis0%
Erick Ferigra0%
Lazar Rosić0%
Bojan Kovačević0%
Pione Sisto0%
Julien Ngoy0%
Davíð Kristján Ólafsson0%
Alexandros Anagnostopoulos0%
Savvas Mourgos0%
Goni Naor0%
Zisis Chatzistravos0%
Vasilios Sourlis0%
Luca Andrada0%
Theocharis Iliadis0%
Ahmed Ouattara Kossonou0%
King Faisal0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Lazar Rosić43%
Epameinondas Pantelakis40%
Bojan Kovačević38%
Yvann Maçon33%
Jani Atanasov32%
Soufiane Chakla31%
Theocharis Iliadis30%
Konstantinos Apostolakis29%
Petros Bagalianis29%
Savvas Mourgos26%
Ángelo Sagal25%
Facundo Pérez24%
Theodoros Venetikidis22%
Ahmed Ouattara Kossonou22%
Vasilios Sourlis22%
Goni Naor21%
Leandro Garate21%
Athanasios Papageorgiou18%
Davíð Kristján Ólafsson18%
Paschalis Staikos17%
Nikolaos Melissas15%
Christos Giousis14%
Alexandros Anagnostopoulos14%
Amr Warda12%
Dylan Batubinsika12%
Erick Ferigra11%
Pione Sisto10%
Zisis Chatzistravos9%
Panagiotis Deligiannidis8%
Giannis Pasas7%
Ľubomír Tupta6%
Gaël Kakuta0%
Julien Ngoy0%
Luca Andrada0%
King Faisal0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Gaël Kakuta17%
Amr Warda12%
Ángelo Sagal11%
Pione Sisto10%
Athanasios Papageorgiou9%
Savvas Mourgos9%
Paschalis Staikos8%
Panagiotis Deligiannidis8%
Davíð Kristján Ólafsson6%
Ľubomír Tupta6%
Ahmed Ouattara Kossonou6%
Erick Ferigra5%
Goni Naor5%
Giannis Pasas4%
Leandro Garate3%
Jani Atanasov3%
Christos Giousis0%
Dylan Batubinsika0%
Yvann Maçon0%
Nikolaos Melissas0%
Epameinondas Pantelakis0%
Konstantinos Apostolakis0%
Theodoros Venetikidis0%
Lazar Rosić0%
Bojan Kovačević0%
Julien Ngoy0%
Alexandros Anagnostopoulos0%
Petros Bagalianis0%
Soufiane Chakla0%
Facundo Pérez0%
Zisis Chatzistravos0%
Vasilios Sourlis0%
Luca Andrada0%
Theocharis Iliadis0%
King Faisal0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Jani Atanasov23%
Ľubomír Tupta20%
Christos Giousis14%
Ángelo Sagal14%
Pione Sisto10%
Leandro Garate7%
Yvann Maçon6%
Zisis Chatzistravos4%
Facundo Pérez3%
Amr Warda0%
Dylan Batubinsika0%
Athanasios Papageorgiou0%
Nikolaos Melissas0%
Epameinondas Pantelakis0%
Konstantinos Apostolakis0%
Paschalis Staikos0%
Panagiotis Deligiannidis0%
Theodoros Venetikidis0%
Giannis Pasas0%
Erick Ferigra0%
Lazar Rosić0%
Bojan Kovačević0%
Gaël Kakuta0%
Julien Ngoy0%
Davíð Kristján Ólafsson0%
Alexandros Anagnostopoulos0%
Petros Bagalianis0%
Savvas Mourgos0%
Goni Naor0%
Soufiane Chakla0%
Vasilios Sourlis0%
Luca Andrada0%
Theocharis Iliadis0%
Ahmed Ouattara Kossonou0%
King Faisal0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PAN (27)
€6m
NV (24)
€6m
PI (21)
€5m
KAL (27)
€5m
PAN (24)
€5m
LAR (23)
€5m
MAR (27)
€5m
AK (25)
€4m
OPI (22)
€4m
ATI (23)
€4m
NC (23)
€3m
ES (20)
€3m
AP (16)
€2m
Marko and Larisa have a similar squad value (both €5m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PAN (13)
€3m
PAN (11)
€2m
PI (9)
€2m
MAR (11)
€2m
NV (7)
€2m
OPI (9)
€2m
LAR (7)
€2m
KAL (9)
€2m
AK (7)
€1m
NC (9)
€1m
ES (9)
€1m
ATI (6)
€1m
AP (6)
€1m
Marko and Larisa have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NV (6)
€1m
PI (4)
€1m
ATI (7)
€1m
PAN (3)
€1m
AK (6)
€1m
LAR (3)
€1m
KAL (4)
€1m
NC (5)
€1m
AP (4)
€1m
ES (3)
€1m
MAR (4)
€0m
OPI (3)
€0m
PAN (1)
€0m
Marko and Larisa have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KAL (14)
€3m
PAN (13)
€3m
NV (11)
€3m
LAR (13)
€2m
MAR (12)
€2m
PI (8)
€2m
OPI (10)
€2m
PAN (10)
€2m
AK (12)
€2m
NC (9)
€1m
ATI (10)
€1m
ES (8)
€1m
AP (6)
€1m
Marko and Larisa have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Greece: Super League 2 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Greece: Super League 2 stats & trends →
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Panserraikos
Ellas Syros
Panionios
Anagennisi Karditsas
Niki Volos
Zakynthos
PAOK II
Nestos Chrisoupolis
Apollon Pontou
Kallithea
Asteras Tripolis II
Olympiakos Piraeus II
Pyrgos 1968
Panthrakikos