Marsa is the clear favourite to take the win, with the model predicting a home win at 75%. This is largely due to the team's strong home form, particularly against weaker opponents, where they average 1 goal scored and 1.5 conceded. Mtarfa, on the other hand, has struggled on the road, particularly against stronger teams, where they average 0.77 goals scored and 4.31 conceded.
The most likely score is a 3-1 win for Marsa, with a probability of 8.1%. The expected total goals is 4.3, indicating a high-scoring match. The model suggests Over 1.5 goals at 93.3%, Over 2.5 goals at 80.4%, and Home win at 75.4%.
The home win percentage is 75%, the draw percentage is 14%, and the away win percentage is 10%. The model's selection for the match result is Home win, while its selections are Over 1.5 goals, Over 2.5 goals, and Home win.
Results analysis
The win extends Marsa's run, now at three consecutive victories, following a draw in their previous match. The final score was 5-0 in favour of the home team, with the actual result being a home win. The model's selection, Home win, was correct, having a pre-match probability of 75%. The model's call was well-supported as the selections largely came in. The model's selection of Home win hit, while the suggested picks of Over 1.5 and Over 2.5 both hit, with probabilities of 93.3% and 80.4% respectively.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Marsa win✓ Hit
75.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
14.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Mtarfa win✗ Miss
10.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Marsa
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
2.00
1.19
2.31
1.14
1.64
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (19)
1.05
2.11
1.20
2.20
0.89
2.00
vs Weaker (11)
1.36
1.82
1.17
2.50
1.60
1.00
Clean sheet %
10% (-16pp vs league)
This opponent (Mtarfa) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Mtarfa
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.5
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
4.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
3.40
0.79
2.57
0.81
4.12
vs Stronger (9)
0.33
2.89
0.43
2.43
0.00
4.50
vs Similar (9)
0.67
4.67
0.33
3.67
0.83
5.17
vs Weaker (12)
1.25
2.83
1.75
2.00
1.00
3.25
Clean sheet %
3% (-23pp vs league)
This opponent (Marsa) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 4.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 6+ (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
93.3%
Under 1.5
6.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
80.4%
Under 2.5
19.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
62.4%
Under 3.5
37.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
66.6%
No
33.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
3-1
8.1%
2-1
7.8%
3-0
6.9%
2-0
6.6%
4-1
6.4%
1-1
5.5%
4-0
5.4%
3-2
4.8%
Marsa goals ↓
Mtarfa goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
1.9%
1.1%
0.9%
0.4%
0.1%
1
3.7%
5.5%
2.9%
1.1%
0.3%
2
6.6%
7.8%
4.6%
1.8%
0.5%
3
6.9%
8.1%
4.8%
1.9%
0.6%
4
5.4%
6.4%
3.8%
1.5%
0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Marsa goals (down), columns = Mtarfa goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Balzan FC
2.18
Swieqi United
2.14
Birzebbuga
2.04
Melita
1.67
Sirens
1.59
Pietà Hotspurs
1.59
Mgarr United
1.50
Fgura United
1.45
Gudja United
1.45
Santa Lucía
1.36
Zurrieq
1.23
St. Andrews
1.23
Vittoriosa Stars
0.95
Zebbug Rangers
0.91
Marsa
0.86
Mtarfa
0.18
Marsa is 0.68 points better than Mtarfa in terms of average points per game (0.86 vs 0.18).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Sirens
2.27
Balzan FC
2.27
Swieqi United
2.23
Birzebbuga
2.09
Pietà Hotspurs
1.91
Fgura United
1.86
Mgarr United
1.86
Melita
1.86
Santa Lucía
1.82
Zurrieq
1.64
Marsa
1.45
Gudja United
1.32
St. Andrews
1.18
Vittoriosa Stars
1.18
Zebbug Rangers
1.05
Mtarfa
0.45
Marsa is 1.00 goals better than Mtarfa in terms of goals scored per game (1.45 vs 0.45).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Balzan FC
0.95
Gudja United
1.14
Swieqi United
1.18
Birzebbuga
1.22
Melita
1.33
Santa Lucía
1.41
Sirens
1.50
Mgarr United
1.50
Vittoriosa Stars
1.50
Pietà Hotspurs
1.55
Fgura United
1.68
Zurrieq
1.73
St. Andrews
1.73
Marsa
1.73
Zebbug Rangers
2.05
Mtarfa
4.27
Marsa is 2.55 goals better than Mtarfa in terms of goals conceded per game (1.73 vs 4.27).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Marsa
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
1.00
0.62
0.94
0.57
1.07
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (19)
0.37
1.00
0.40
0.80
0.33
1.22
vs Weaker (11)
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.17
1.00
0.80
Clean sheet %
30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Mtarfa) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Mtarfa
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
1.60
0.36
1.14
0.31
2.00
vs Stronger (9)
0.22
1.33
0.29
1.00
0.00
2.50
vs Similar (9)
0.11
2.44
0.00
1.67
0.17
2.83
vs Weaker (12)
0.58
1.17
0.75
1.00
0.50
1.25
Clean sheet %
20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Marsa) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Marsa over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marsa over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marsa over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mtarfa over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mtarfa over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mtarfa over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Marsa
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
1.00
0.56
1.38
0.57
0.57
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (19)
0.68
1.11
0.80
1.40
0.56
0.78
vs Weaker (11)
0.36
0.82
0.17
1.33
0.60
0.20
Clean sheet %
37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Mtarfa) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Mtarfa
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
0.0
Avg conceded
2.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
1.80
0.43
1.43
0.50
2.12
vs Stronger (9)
0.11
1.56
0.14
1.43
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (9)
0.56
2.22
0.33
2.00
0.67
2.33
vs Weaker (12)
0.67
1.67
1.00
1.00
0.50
2.00
Clean sheet %
20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Marsa) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Marsa over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marsa over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marsa over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mtarfa over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mtarfa over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mtarfa over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
93.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5
80.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home win
75.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Malta: Challenge League 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Malta: Challenge League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Balzan FC
Swieqi United
Birzebbuga
Sirens
Melita
Pietà Hotspurs
Mgarr United
Fgura United
Gudja United
Santa Lucía
Zurrieq
St. Andrews
Vittoriosa Stars
Zebbug Rangers