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Marsa vs Vittoriosa Stars Result & Analysis

Date: 21/02/2026
Time: 13:00
Final 2-2
Marsa
Marsa
Vs
29%
23%
49%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Vittoriosa Stars
Vittoriosa Stars
Malta: Challenge League
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Marsa win✗ Miss
28.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
22.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Vittoriosa Stars win✗ Miss
48.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

MarsaMarsa

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-401L23L21W01L12L23L22D01L11D14LA·PIE22/11H·MGA29/11A·SWI10/12A·BIR14/12H·ST.21/12A·MEL11/01H·SAN18/01H·ZEB31/01A·VIT08/02H·BAL15/02
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.171.831.192.061.141.57
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (17)0.942.181.122.250.782.11
vs Weaker (13)1.461.381.251.881.800.60
Clean sheet %13% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Vittoriosa Stars) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Vittoriosa StarsVittoriosa Stars

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-421W23L01L02L40W14L11D33D11D01LA·MTA22/11H·FGU30/11A·GUD09/12H·SAN13/12A·ZEB20/12A·BAL10/01H·BIR17/01A·ST.01/02H·MAR08/02H·MEL14/02
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.031.800.711.711.461.92
vs Stronger (2)1.001.001.001.00--
vs Similar (23)0.962.040.581.921.362.18
vs Weaker (5)1.401.001.001.332.000.50
Clean sheet %20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Marsa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

5%11%16%21%3%08%118%221%319%414%516%6+
The model estimates around 3.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
88.8%
Under 1.5
11.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
70.6%
Under 2.5
29.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
49.5%
Under 3.5
50.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
70.2%
No
29.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
9.3%
1-2
8.8%
2-2 ✓
6.9%
2-1
6.7%
1-3
6.1%
0-2
5.6%
2-3
4.8%
0-1
4.6%
Marsa goals ↓
Vittoriosa Stars goals →
01234
03.5%4.6%5.6%3.9%2.0%
13.2%9.3%8.8%6.1%3.2%
23.2%6.7%6.9%4.8%2.5%
31.7%3.5%3.6%2.5%1.3%
40.7%1.4%1.4%1.0%0.5%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Marsa goals (down), columns = Vittoriosa Stars goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Balzan FC
2.18
Swieqi United
2.14
Birzebbuga
2.04
Melita
1.67
Sirens
1.59
Pietà Hotspurs
1.59
Mgarr United
1.50
Fgura United
1.45
Gudja United
1.45
Santa Lucía
1.36
Zurrieq
1.23
St. Andrews
1.23
Vittoriosa Stars
0.95
Zebbug Rangers
0.91
Marsa
0.86
Mtarfa
0.18
Marsa is 0.09 points worse than Vittoriosa Stars in terms of average points per game (0.86 vs 0.95).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Sirens
2.27
Balzan FC
2.27
Swieqi United
2.23
Birzebbuga
2.09
Pietà Hotspurs
1.91
Fgura United
1.86
Mgarr United
1.86
Melita
1.86
Santa Lucía
1.82
Zurrieq
1.64
Marsa
1.45
Gudja United
1.32
St. Andrews
1.18
Vittoriosa Stars
1.18
Zebbug Rangers
1.05
Mtarfa
0.45
Marsa is 0.27 goals better than Vittoriosa Stars in terms of goals scored per game (1.45 vs 1.18).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Balzan FC
0.95
Gudja United
1.14
Swieqi United
1.18
Birzebbuga
1.22
Melita
1.33
Santa Lucía
1.41
Sirens
1.50
Mgarr United
1.50
Vittoriosa Stars
1.50
Pietà Hotspurs
1.55
Fgura United
1.68
Zurrieq
1.73
St. Andrews
1.73
Marsa
1.73
Zebbug Rangers
2.05
Mtarfa
4.27
Marsa is 0.23 goals worse than Vittoriosa Stars in terms of goals conceded per game (1.73 vs 1.50).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

MarsaMarsa

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L11D11D01L00D03L11D00D11D02LA·PIE22/11H·MGA29/11A·SWI10/12A·BIR14/12H·ST.21/12A·MEL11/01H·SAN18/01H·ZEB31/01A·VIT08/02H·BAL15/02
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.570.900.620.810.501.00
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (17)0.241.060.250.880.221.22
vs Weaker (13)1.000.691.000.751.000.60
Clean sheet %37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Vittoriosa Stars) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Vittoriosa StarsVittoriosa Stars

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-410W11D00D01L10W04L01L02L11D00DA·MTA22/11H·FGU30/11A·GUD09/12H·SAN13/12A·ZEB20/12A·BAL10/01H·BIR17/01A·ST.01/02H·MAR08/02H·MEL14/02
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.500.900.380.880.640.93
vs Stronger (2)0.000.000.000.00--
vs Similar (24)0.541.040.421.000.671.08
vs Weaker (4)0.500.500.501.000.500.00
Clean sheet %40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Marsa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Marsa over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marsa over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marsa over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vittoriosa Stars over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vittoriosa Stars over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vittoriosa Stars over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

MarsaMarsa

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D12L10W00D12L20W11D01L00D12LA·PIE22/11H·MGA29/11A·SWI10/12A·BIR14/12H·ST.21/12A·MEL11/01H·SAN18/01H·ZEB31/01A·VIT08/02H·BAL15/02
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.600.930.561.250.640.57
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (17)0.711.120.881.380.560.89
vs Weaker (13)0.460.690.251.120.800.00
Clean sheet %40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Vittoriosa Stars) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Vittoriosa StarsVittoriosa Stars

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D12L01L01L30W10W10W31W00D01LA·MTA22/11H·FGU30/11A·GUD09/12H·SAN13/12A·ZEB20/12A·BAL10/01H·BIR17/01A·ST.01/02H·MAR08/02H·MEL14/02
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.600.870.440.750.791.00
vs Stronger (2)1.001.001.001.00--
vs Similar (24)0.500.880.330.670.671.08
vs Weaker (4)1.000.750.501.001.500.50
Clean sheet %47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Marsa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Marsa over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marsa over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marsa over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vittoriosa Stars over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vittoriosa Stars over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vittoriosa Stars over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.588.8%-------✓ Hit
Over 2.570.6%-------✓ Hit
BTTS Yes70.2%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BIR (14)
€3m
BF (10)
€2m
SU (2)
€0m
GU (1)
€0m
ZUR (1)
€0m
ZR (1)
€0m
FU (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BF (4)
€1m
BIR (4)
€1m
SU (2)
€0m
FU (1)
€0m
GU (0)
€0m
ZUR (0)
€0m
ZR (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BIR (6)
€2m
BF (2)
€0m
GU (1)
€0m
SU (0)
€0m
ZUR (0)
€0m
ZR (0)
€0m
FU (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BIR (4)
€1m
BF (4)
€1m
ZUR (1)
€0m
ZR (1)
€0m
SU (0)
€0m
GU (0)
€0m
FU (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

3 previous meetings
1
MAR wins
2
Draws
0
VS wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Marsa vs Vittoriosa Stars · H/A from MAR
DateH/AGameScore
08/02/26AVittoriosa Stars Vs MAR1-1
05/04/23AVittoriosa Stars Vs MAR1-4
27/08/22HMAR Vs Vittoriosa Stars1-1

MarsaMarsa

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
15/02/26HMAR Vs Balzan FC1-4
08/02/26AVittoriosa Stars Vs MAR1-1
31/01/26HMAR Vs Zebbug Rangers0-1
18/01/26HMAR Vs Santa Lucía2-2
11/01/26AMelita Vs MAR3-2
21/12/25HMAR Vs St. Andrews1-2
14/12/25ABirzebbuga Vs MAR1-0
10/12/25ASwieqi United Vs MAR1-2
29/11/25HMAR Vs Mgarr United2-3
22/11/25APietà Hotspurs Vs MAR1-0

Vittoriosa StarsVittoriosa Stars

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
14/02/26HVS Vs Melita0-1
08/02/26HVS Vs Marsa1-1
01/02/26ASt. Andrews Vs VS3-3
17/01/26HVS Vs Birzebbuga1-1
10/01/26ABalzan FC Vs VS4-1
20/12/25AZebbug Rangers Vs VS0-4
13/12/25HVS Vs Santa Lucía0-2
09/12/25AGudja United Vs VS1-0
30/11/25HVS Vs Fgura United2-3
22/11/25AMtarfa Vs VS1-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Marsa
Marsa
Malta: Challenge League
Recent: 1 Wins / 2 Draws / 7 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDLDL1.20
HomeLLDLL1.04
AwayLWLLD1.38
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %32%27%38%
AVG goals2.963.082.83
Over 1.5 %76%73%79%
Over 2.5 %56%62%50%
Over 3.5 %42%50%33%
Scored1.421.351.50
Conceded1.541.731.33
BTTS60%62%58%
Clean Sheet20%23%17%
Corners---
Cards---
Vittoriosa Stars
Vittoriosa Stars
Malta: Challenge League
Recent: 2 Wins / 3 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDDDL0.79
HomeLLDDL0.91
AwayWLWLD0.65
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %21%26%15%
AVG goals2.912.483.40
Over 1.5 %74%65%85%
Over 2.5 %53%43%65%
Over 3.5 %35%26%45%
Scored1.020.831.25
Conceded1.881.652.15
BTTS47%30%65%
Clean Sheet21%26%15%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Balzan FCBalzan FC2248
68%
2.2
5021+29
3.2
86%
64%
45%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1012.31.0
-
2Swieqi UnitedSwieqi United2247
64%
2.1
4926+23
3.4
91%
64%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.21.2
-
3BirzebbugaBirzebbuga2347
61%
2.0
4828+20
3.3
78%
65%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1212.11.2
-
4SirensSirens2235
50%
1.6
5033+17
3.8
82%
68%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.31.5
-
5MelitaMelita2135
52%
1.7
3928+11
3.2
81%
62%
48%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.91.3
-
6Pietà HotspursPietà Hotspurs2235
45%
1.6
4234+8
3.5
82%
64%
64%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.91.5
-
7Mgarr UnitedMgarr United2233
41%
1.5
4133+8
3.4
82%
55%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.91.5
-
8Fgura UnitedFgura United2232
45%
1.5
4137+4
3.5
86%
68%
45%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.91.7
-
9Gudja UnitedGudja United2232
36%
1.5
2925+4
2.5
73%
45%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.1
-
10Santa LucíaSanta Lucía2230
32%
1.4
4031+9
3.2
82%
55%
41%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.4
-
11ZurrieqZurrieq2227
36%
1.2
3638-2
3.4
82%
68%
45%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.61.7
-
12St. AndrewsSt. Andrews2227
36%
1.2
2638-12
2.9
82%
64%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.7
-
13Vittoriosa StarsVittoriosa Stars2221
23%
1.0
2633-7
2.7
68%
41%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.5
-
14Zebbug RangersZebbug Rangers2220
23%
0.9
2345-22
3.1
77%
59%
41%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.0
-
15MarsaMarsa2219
18%
0.9
3238-6
3.2
82%
64%
45%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.7
-
16MtarfaMtarfa224
5%
0.2
1094-84
4.7
95%
77%
64%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.54.3
-
Malta: Challenge League 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Malta: Challenge League stats & trends →

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