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Marsaxlokk vs Birkirkara Result & Analysis

Date: 23/10/2022
Time: 15:30
Final 1-0
Marsaxlokk
Marsaxlokk
Vs
17%
22%
61%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Birkirkara
Birkirkara
Malta: Premier League
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Marsaxlokk winâś“ Hit
17.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Drawâś— Miss
22.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Birkirkara winâś— Miss
60.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš˝ 2. Goal Analysis

MarsaxlokkMarsaxlokk

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-414L00D01L12L30W22D21WH·MOS27/08A·GZI04/09A·HAM07/09H·BAL11/09A·ZEB01/10H·SAN08/10A·GUD17/10
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.291.431.332.671.250.50
vs Stronger (1)0.001.00--0.001.00
vs Similar (4)1.002.001.332.670.000.00
vs Weaker (2)2.500.50--2.500.50
Clean sheet %29% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Birkirkara) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

BirkirkaraBirkirkara

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-420W21W10W40W30W11D00DH·SIR19/08A·ZEB27/08H·FLO03/09A·SAN11/09H·VAL02/10A·GUD08/10H·HAM15/10
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.860.291.500.002.330.67
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (5)2.000.001.500.004.000.00
vs Weaker (2)1.501.00--1.501.00
Clean sheet %71% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Marsaxlokk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%22%5%011%122%222%318%411%511%6+
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
84.0%
Under 1.5
16.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
62.3%
Under 2.5
37.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
40.0%
Under 3.5
60.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
59.0%
No
41.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.2%
1-2
9.9%
0-2
9.2%
0-1
7.7%
1-3
7.1%
0-3
6.6%
2-2
5.3%
2-1
5.0%
Marsaxlokk goals ↓
Birkirkara goals →
01234
04.9%7.7%9.2%6.6%3.5%
13.4%10%9.9%7.1%3.8%
22.3%5.0%5.3%3.8%2.0%
30.8%1.8%1.9%1.4%0.7%
40.2%0.5%0.5%0.4%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Marsaxlokk goals (down), columns = Birkirkara goals (across).

đź’Ş 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Hamrun Spartans
2.65
Birkirkara
1.92
Gzira United
1.85
Mosta
1.77
Balzan FC
1.74
Hibernians
1.74
Floriana
1.42
Valletta FC
1.42
Sirens
1.27
Gudja United
1.12
Marsaxlokk
0.96
Santa LucĂ­a
0.58
Zebbug Rangers
0.54
PietĂ  Hotspurs
0.46
Marsaxlokk is 0.96 points worse than Birkirkara in terms of average points per game (0.96 vs 1.92).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Birkirkara
1.92
Mosta
1.81
Gzira United
1.77
Hibernians
1.74
Hamrun Spartans
1.73
Balzan FC
1.44
Valletta FC
1.42
Floriana
1.15
Gudja United
1.08
Marsaxlokk
1.08
Sirens
0.96
PietĂ  Hotspurs
0.85
Zebbug Rangers
0.81
Santa LucĂ­a
0.77
Marsaxlokk is 0.85 goals worse than Birkirkara in terms of goals scored per game (1.08 vs 1.92).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Hamrun Spartans
0.38
Gzira United
0.73
Birkirkara
0.77
Valletta FC
0.88
Floriana
1.00
Sirens
1.23
Balzan FC
1.26
Mosta
1.27
Hibernians
1.44
Marsaxlokk
1.46
Gudja United
1.50
Santa LucĂ­a
1.88
Zebbug Rangers
2.23
PietĂ  Hotspurs
2.50
Marsaxlokk is 0.69 goals worse than Birkirkara in terms of goals conceded per game (1.46 vs 0.77).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

MarsaxlokkMarsaxlokk

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-313L00D01L10W20W21W00DH·MOS27/08A·GZI04/09A·HAM07/09H·BAL11/09A·ZEB01/10H·SAN08/10A·GUD17/10
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.860.711.331.330.500.25
vs Stronger (1)0.001.00--0.001.00
vs Similar (4)1.001.001.331.330.000.00
vs Weaker (2)1.000.00--1.000.00
Clean sheet %57% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Birkirkara) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

BirkirkaraBirkirkara

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
10-100D11D00D00D10W01L00DH·SIR19/08A·ZEB27/08H·FLO03/09A·SAN11/09H·VAL02/10A·GUD08/10H·HAM15/10
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.290.290.250.000.330.67
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (5)0.200.000.250.000.000.00
vs Weaker (2)0.501.00--0.501.00
Clean sheet %71% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Marsaxlokk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Marsaxlokk over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marsaxlokk over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marsaxlokk over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Birkirkara over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Birkirkara over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Birkirkara over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

MarsaxlokkMarsaxlokk

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L00D00D02L10W01L21WH·MOS27/08A·GZI04/09A·HAM07/09H·BAL11/09A·ZEB01/10H·SAN08/10A·GUD17/10
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.430.710.001.330.750.25
vs Stronger (1)0.000.00--0.000.00
vs Similar (4)0.001.000.001.330.000.00
vs Weaker (2)1.500.50--1.500.50
Clean sheet %43% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Birkirkara) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

BirkirkaraBirkirkara

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-420W10W10W40W20W10W00DH·SIR19/08A·ZEB27/08H·FLO03/09A·SAN11/09H·VAL02/10A·GUD08/10H·HAM15/10
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
0.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.570.001.250.002.000.00
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (5)1.800.001.250.004.000.00
vs Weaker (2)1.000.00--1.000.00
Clean sheet %100% (+69pp vs league)
This opponent (Marsaxlokk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Marsaxlokk over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marsaxlokk over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marsaxlokk over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Birkirkara over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Birkirkara over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Birkirkara over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.584.0%-------âś— Miss

đź’° 14. Squad value

đź’° Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HIB (28)
€5m
HS (23)
€5m
FLO (22)
€5m
VF (20)
€4m
MAR (22)
€4m
MOS (24)
€3m
GU (13)
€3m
BIR (12)
€3m
BF (10)
€2m
GU (1)
€0m
ZR (1)
€0m
Marsaxlokk's squad is €1m more valuable than Birkirkara's (€4m vs €3m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HIB (10)
€2m
FLO (7)
€2m
VF (7)
€2m
BIR (6)
€2m
MAR (8)
€1m
MOS (8)
€1m
HS (7)
€1m
BF (4)
€1m
GU (4)
€1m
GU (0)
€0m
ZR (0)
€0m
Marsaxlokk and Birkirkara have a similar attack value (both €1m).

đź§  Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HS (10)
€3m
MAR (6)
€2m
VF (5)
€1m
FLO (6)
€1m
MOS (4)
€1m
GU (3)
€1m
HIB (4)
€1m
BIR (2)
€1m
BF (2)
€0m
GU (1)
€0m
ZR (0)
€0m
Marsaxlokk's midfield is €1m more valuable than Birkirkara's (€2m vs €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HIB (14)
€3m
FLO (9)
€2m
VF (8)
€2m
GU (6)
€1m
HS (6)
€1m
MOS (12)
€1m
BIR (4)
€1m
MAR (8)
€1m
BF (4)
€1m
ZR (1)
€0m
GU (0)
€0m
Marsaxlokk and Birkirkara have a similar defence value (both €1m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

No previous meetings
0
MAR wins
0
Draws
0
BIR wins

Head-to-head

Marsaxlokk vs Birkirkara · H/A from MAR
DateH/AGameScore
No games.

MarsaxlokkMarsaxlokk

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
17/10/22AGudja United Vs MAR1-2
08/10/22HMAR Vs Santa LucĂ­a2-2
01/10/22AZebbug Rangers Vs MAR0-3
11/09/22HMAR Vs Balzan FC1-2
07/09/22AHamrun Spartans Vs MAR1-0
04/09/22AGzira United Vs MAR0-0
27/08/22HMAR Vs Mosta1-4

BirkirkaraBirkirkara

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
15/10/22HBIR Vs Hamrun Spartans0-0
08/10/22AGudja United Vs BIR1-1
02/10/22HBIR Vs Valletta FC3-0
11/09/22ASanta LucĂ­a Vs BIR0-4
03/09/22HBIR Vs Floriana1-0
27/08/22AZebbug Rangers Vs BIR1-2
19/08/22HBIR Vs Sirens2-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Marsaxlokk
Marsaxlokk
Malta: Premier League
Recent: 2 Wins / 2 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLWDW1.14
HomeLLD0.33
AwayDLWW1.75
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %29%0%50%
AVG goals2.714.001.75
Over 1.5 %71%100%50%
Over 2.5 %71%100%50%
Over 3.5 %29%67%0%
Scored1.291.331.25
Conceded1.432.670.50
BTTS57%100%25%
Clean Sheet29%0%50%
Corners---
Cards---
Birkirkara
Birkirkara
Malta: Premier League
Recent: 5 Wins / 2 Draws / 0 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWWDD2.43
HomeWWWD2.50
AwayWWD2.33
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %71%75%67%
AVG goals2.141.503.00
Over 1.5 %71%50%100%
Over 2.5 %43%25%67%
Over 3.5 %14%0%33%
Scored1.861.502.33
Conceded0.290.000.67
BTTS29%0%67%
Clean Sheet71%100%33%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Hamrun SpartansHamrun Spartans2669
85%
2.7
4510+35
2.1
58%
35%
15%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1311.70.4
-
2BirkirkaraBirkirkara2650
54%
1.9
5020+30
2.7
81%
50%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
2111.90.8
-
3Gzira UnitedGzira United2648
54%
1.8
4619+27
2.5
73%
46%
23%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.80.7
-
4HiberniansHibernians2747
52%
1.7
4739+8
3.2
85%
56%
41%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2131.71.4
-
5Balzan FCBalzan FC2747
52%
1.7
3934+5
2.7
70%
59%
41%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.41.3
-
6MostaMosta2646
54%
1.8
4733+14
3.1
96%
69%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.81.3
-
7Valletta FCValletta FC2637
35%
1.4
3723+14
2.3
62%
42%
23%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2121.40.9
-
8FlorianaFloriana2637
38%
1.4
3026+4
2.2
58%
27%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.21.0
-
9SirensSirens2633
31%
1.3
2532-7
2.2
58%
38%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.2
-
10Gudja UnitedGudja United2629
31%
1.1
2839-11
2.6
77%
50%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.5
-
11MarsaxlokkMarsaxlokk2625
19%
1.0
2838-10
2.5
77%
50%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1211.11.5
-
12Santa LucĂ­aSanta LucĂ­a2615
15%
0.6
2049-29
2.7
81%
54%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.81.9
-
13Zebbug RangersZebbug Rangers2614
15%
0.5
2158-37
3.0
81%
54%
35%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.82.2
-
14PietĂ  HotspursPietĂ  Hotspurs2612
12%
0.5
2265-43
3.3
85%
65%
46%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.82.5
-
Malta: Premier League 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Malta: Premier League stats & trends →

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