The model favours an away win, with the odds 44% for Floriana, 30% for a draw and 26% for Marsaxlokk. The expected total is 2.3 goals, centring on a 2-goal total that carries a 28% probability. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, a 14.2% chance. Marsaxlokk, playing at home against a stronger side, averages 0.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded, while Floriana, on the road against a weaker opponent, averages 1.33 scored and 1.11 conceded. The model’s selection includes Under 3.5 with a 79.9% probability. The recent form narrative shows Marsaxlokk on a two-game winning run after a 2-1 win over Valletta FC, whereas Floriana remains unbeaten in five matches, having drawn 1-1 with Hamrun Spartans. The predicted outcome remains an away win for Floriana, with the 1-1 scoreline the most probable result.
Results analysis
Marsaxlokk’s two-game winning streak was halted as Floriana extended their unbeaten run to five games, finishing 1-5 for an away win that matched the model’s favourite. The Pythia model had predicted an away win with a 44% probability, and the call was correct. The expected total of 2.3 goals was far below the 6-goal outburst, and the most likely score of 1-1 was missed. The model’s only other selection, Under 3.5 with a 79.9% chance, also missed. The match delivered a clear 5-goal margin, leaving the predicted total well short of reality.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Marsaxlokk win✗ Miss
25.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
30.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Floriana win✓ Hit
43.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Marsaxlokk
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.08
1.33
0.92
1.75
1.25
0.92
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (17)
1.06
1.53
1.00
2.00
1.12
1.00
vs Weaker (4)
1.75
0.75
1.00
1.00
2.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
21% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (Floriana) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Floriana
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.88
0.81
0.85
0.54
0.92
1.08
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (8)
0.25
0.88
0.50
0.75
0.00
1.00
vs Weaker (18)
1.17
0.78
1.00
0.44
1.33
1.11
Clean sheet %
42% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Marsaxlokk) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
68.3%
Under 1.5
31.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
40.5%
Under 2.5
59.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
20.1%
Under 3.5
79.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
47.0%
No
53.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.2%
0-1
12.1%
0-0
11.3%
0-2
8.9%
1-2
8.6%
1-0
8.4%
2-1
6.2%
2-0
4.7%
Marsaxlokk goals ↓
Floriana goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
11%
12%
8.9%
4.0%
1.3%
1
8.4%
14%
8.6%
3.8%
1.3%
2
4.7%
6.2%
4.2%
1.9%
0.6%
3
1.5%
2.0%
1.3%
0.6%
0.2%
4
0.4%
0.5%
0.3%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Marsaxlokk goals (down), columns = Floriana goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Hamrun Spartans
2.65
Birkirkara
1.92
Gzira United
1.85
Mosta
1.77
Balzan FC
1.74
Hibernians
1.74
Floriana
1.42
Valletta FC
1.42
Sirens
1.27
Gudja United
1.12
Marsaxlokk
0.96
Santa Lucía
0.58
Zebbug Rangers
0.54
Pietà Hotspurs
0.46
Marsaxlokk is 0.46 points worse than Floriana in terms of average points per game (0.96 vs 1.42).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Birkirkara
1.92
Mosta
1.81
Gzira United
1.77
Hibernians
1.74
Hamrun Spartans
1.73
Balzan FC
1.44
Valletta FC
1.42
Floriana
1.15
Gudja United
1.08
Marsaxlokk
1.08
Sirens
0.96
Pietà Hotspurs
0.85
Zebbug Rangers
0.81
Santa Lucía
0.77
Marsaxlokk is 0.08 goals worse than Floriana in terms of goals scored per game (1.08 vs 1.15).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Hamrun Spartans
0.38
Gzira United
0.73
Birkirkara
0.77
Valletta FC
0.88
Floriana
1.00
Sirens
1.23
Balzan FC
1.26
Mosta
1.27
Hibernians
1.44
Marsaxlokk
1.46
Gudja United
1.50
Santa Lucía
1.88
Zebbug Rangers
2.23
Pietà Hotspurs
2.50
Marsaxlokk is 0.46 goals worse than Floriana in terms of goals conceded per game (1.46 vs 1.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Marsaxlokk
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.42
0.67
0.50
0.67
0.33
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
0.33
0.00
0.00
0.50
0.50
vs Similar (17)
0.65
0.47
0.67
0.56
0.62
0.38
vs Weaker (4)
1.00
0.25
1.00
0.50
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
71% (+40pp vs league)
This opponent (Floriana) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Floriana
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.31
0.46
0.38
0.15
0.23
0.77
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (8)
0.00
0.25
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.50
vs Weaker (18)
0.44
0.56
0.56
0.22
0.33
0.89
Clean sheet %
65% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Marsaxlokk) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Marsaxlokk over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marsaxlokk over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marsaxlokk over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Floriana over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Floriana over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Floriana over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Marsaxlokk
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.42
0.92
0.25
1.25
0.58
0.58
vs Stronger (3)
0.00
0.67
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.50
vs Similar (17)
0.41
1.06
0.33
1.44
0.50
0.62
vs Weaker (4)
0.75
0.50
0.00
0.50
1.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
29% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Floriana) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Floriana
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.58
0.35
0.46
0.38
0.69
0.31
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (8)
0.25
0.62
0.50
0.75
0.00
0.50
vs Weaker (18)
0.72
0.22
0.44
0.22
1.00
0.22
Clean sheet %
69% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Marsaxlokk) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Marsaxlokk over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marsaxlokk over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marsaxlokk over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Floriana over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Floriana over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Floriana over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
79.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HIB (28)
€5m
HS (23)
€5m
FLO (22)
€5m
VF (20)
€4m
MAR (22)
€4m
MOS (24)
€3m
GU (13)
€3m
BIR (12)
€3m
BF (10)
€2m
GU (1)
€0m
ZR (1)
€0m
Marsaxlokk's squad is €1m less valuable than Floriana's (€4m vs €5m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HIB (10)
€2m
FLO (7)
€2m
VF (7)
€2m
BIR (6)
€2m
MAR (8)
€1m
MOS (8)
€1m
HS (7)
€1m
BF (4)
€1m
GU (4)
€1m
GU (0)
€0m
ZR (0)
€0m
Marsaxlokk and Floriana have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HS (10)
€3m
MAR (6)
€2m
VF (5)
€1m
FLO (6)
€1m
MOS (4)
€1m
GU (3)
€1m
HIB (4)
€1m
BIR (2)
€1m
BF (2)
€0m
GU (1)
€0m
ZR (0)
€0m
Marsaxlokk and Floriana have a similar midfield value (both €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HIB (14)
€3m
FLO (9)
€2m
VF (8)
€2m
GU (6)
€1m
HS (6)
€1m
MOS (12)
€1m
BIR (4)
€1m
MAR (8)
€1m
BF (4)
€1m
ZR (1)
€0m
GU (0)
€0m
Marsaxlokk's defence is €1m less valuable than Floriana's (€1m vs €2m).
Malta: Premier League 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Malta: Premier League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Hamrun Spartans
Birkirkara
Gzira United
Hibernians
Balzan FC
Mosta
Valletta FC
Sirens
Gudja United
Santa Lucía
Zebbug Rangers
Pietà Hotspurs