The model favours an away win, with the Spartans holding a 53% chance of triumph, 26% for a draw and 21% for a Marsaxlokk victory. The expected total of 2.8 goals points to a moderately high-scoring affair, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 12.4% probability. Marsaxlokk’s home form shows a 2-game winning streak, yet their last outing ended 2-1 against Valletta FC, while Hamrun Spartans, playing away against a weaker side, average 2.2 goals scored and 1.2 conceded. The model’s selections include an 77.4% chance of Over 1.5 goals and a 70.1% chance of Under 3.5 goals, with the latter hitting. The Spartans’ recent draw-heavy run, coming off a 1-1 with Floriana, underscores their resilience. Overall, the prediction points to a narrow away victory, with the Spartans likely to edge the game in a 1-1 or 0-1 result.
Results analysis
The match finished 0-1 in favour of Hamrun Spartans, extending their recent win streak and confirming the model’s pick of an away win, which it had assigned a 53% probability to. The Pythia prediction that the final score would be 1-1 was wrong, but the overall outcome was correct. The model’s suggested Over 1.5 goals, at 77.4%, missed as only one goal was scored, while its Under 3.5, with 70.1% confidence, hit, as the total was well below three and a half. The home side’s 2-game winning run was halted, whereas the Spartans, coming off a draw, finished strongly.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Marsaxlokk win✗ Miss
21.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
26.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Hamrun Spartans win✓ Hit
52.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Marsaxlokk
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.15
1.31
1.14
1.86
1.17
0.67
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.00
-
-
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (9)
1.00
1.56
1.14
1.86
0.50
0.50
vs Weaker (2)
2.50
0.50
-
-
2.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
23% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (Hamrun Spartans) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hamrun Spartans
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.62
0.86
1.80
0.60
1.45
1.09
vs Stronger (4)
1.50
2.25
1.50
2.00
1.50
2.50
vs Similar (7)
1.29
0.29
2.33
0.33
0.50
0.25
vs Weaker (10)
1.90
0.70
1.60
0.20
2.20
1.20
Clean sheet %
52% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Marsaxlokk) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
77.4%
Under 1.5
22.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
52.1%
Under 2.5
47.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
29.9%
Under 3.5
70.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
54.0%
No
46.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.4%
0-1 ✓
9.8%
1-2
9.8%
0-2
9.5%
0-0
7.4%
2-1
5.8%
1-3
5.6%
0-3
5.5%
Marsaxlokk goals ↓
Hamrun Spartans goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.4%
9.8%
9.5%
5.5%
2.4%
1
5.4%
12%
9.8%
5.6%
2.4%
2
3.4%
5.8%
5.0%
2.9%
1.3%
3
1.2%
2.0%
1.7%
1.0%
0.4%
4
0.3%
0.5%
0.4%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Marsaxlokk goals (down), columns = Hamrun Spartans goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Hamrun Spartans
2.65
Birkirkara
1.92
Gzira United
1.85
Mosta
1.77
Balzan FC
1.74
Hibernians
1.74
Floriana
1.42
Valletta FC
1.42
Sirens
1.27
Gudja United
1.12
Marsaxlokk
0.96
Santa Lucía
0.58
Zebbug Rangers
0.54
Pietà Hotspurs
0.46
Marsaxlokk is 1.69 points worse than Hamrun Spartans in terms of average points per game (0.96 vs 2.65).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Birkirkara
1.92
Mosta
1.81
Gzira United
1.77
Hibernians
1.74
Hamrun Spartans
1.73
Balzan FC
1.44
Valletta FC
1.42
Floriana
1.15
Gudja United
1.08
Marsaxlokk
1.08
Sirens
0.96
Pietà Hotspurs
0.85
Zebbug Rangers
0.81
Santa Lucía
0.77
Marsaxlokk is 0.65 goals worse than Hamrun Spartans in terms of goals scored per game (1.08 vs 1.73).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Hamrun Spartans
0.38
Gzira United
0.73
Birkirkara
0.77
Valletta FC
0.88
Floriana
1.00
Sirens
1.23
Balzan FC
1.26
Mosta
1.27
Hibernians
1.44
Marsaxlokk
1.46
Gudja United
1.50
Santa Lucía
1.88
Zebbug Rangers
2.23
Pietà Hotspurs
2.50
Marsaxlokk is 1.08 goals worse than Hamrun Spartans in terms of goals conceded per game (1.46 vs 0.38).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Marsaxlokk
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.62
0.38
0.71
0.57
0.50
0.17
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.50
-
-
0.50
0.50
vs Similar (9)
0.56
0.44
0.71
0.57
0.00
0.00
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
77% (+46pp vs league)
This opponent (Hamrun Spartans) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hamrun Spartans
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.38
0.70
0.10
0.64
0.64
vs Stronger (4)
0.25
1.00
0.50
0.50
0.00
1.50
vs Similar (7)
0.57
0.14
0.67
0.00
0.50
0.25
vs Weaker (10)
0.90
0.30
0.80
0.00
1.00
0.60
Clean sheet %
76% (+45pp vs league)
This opponent (Marsaxlokk) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Marsaxlokk over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marsaxlokk over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marsaxlokk over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hamrun Spartans over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hamrun Spartans over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hamrun Spartans over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Marsaxlokk
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.54
0.92
0.43
1.29
0.67
0.50
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
0.50
-
-
0.00
0.50
vs Similar (9)
0.44
1.11
0.43
1.29
0.50
0.50
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
0.50
-
-
1.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
31% (+0pp vs league)
This opponent (Hamrun Spartans) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hamrun Spartans
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.95
0.48
1.10
0.50
0.82
0.45
vs Stronger (4)
1.25
1.25
1.00
1.50
1.50
1.00
vs Similar (7)
0.71
0.14
1.67
0.33
0.00
0.00
vs Weaker (10)
1.00
0.40
0.80
0.20
1.20
0.60
Clean sheet %
62% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Marsaxlokk) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Marsaxlokk over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marsaxlokk over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marsaxlokk over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hamrun Spartans over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hamrun Spartans over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hamrun Spartans over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
77.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 3.5
70.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Hamrun Spartans · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Semir Smajlagić20%
Mouad El Fanis20%
Ante Ćorić17%
N'Dri Koffi17%
Stijn Meijer0%
Ognjen Bjeličić0%
Ederson0%
Henry Bonello0%
Joseph Mbong0%
Jovan Čađenović0%
Domantas Šimkus0%
Emerson0%
Matias Garcia0%
Ryan Camenzuli0%
Vincenzo Polito0%
Rafael Compri0%
Sven Xerri0%
Serigne Saliou Thioune0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Ederson40%
Joseph Mbong40%
Vincenzo Polito40%
Matias Garcia25%
Emerson20%
Mouad El Fanis20%
Ognjen Bjeličić17%
Henry Bonello17%
Jovan Čađenović17%
N'Dri Koffi17%
Ante Ćorić0%
Stijn Meijer0%
Domantas Šimkus0%
Semir Smajlagić0%
Ryan Camenzuli0%
Rafael Compri0%
Sven Xerri0%
Serigne Saliou Thioune0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Jovan Čađenović17%
Rafael Compri17%
N'Dri Koffi17%
Ante Ćorić0%
Stijn Meijer0%
Ognjen Bjeličić0%
Ederson0%
Henry Bonello0%
Joseph Mbong0%
Domantas Šimkus0%
Semir Smajlagić0%
Emerson0%
Matias Garcia0%
Ryan Camenzuli0%
Vincenzo Polito0%
Sven Xerri0%
Serigne Saliou Thioune0%
Mouad El Fanis0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
N'Dri Koffi50%
Matias Garcia25%
Ederson20%
Semir Smajlagić20%
Serigne Saliou Thioune20%
Ante Ćorić0%
Stijn Meijer0%
Ognjen Bjeličić0%
Henry Bonello0%
Joseph Mbong0%
Jovan Čađenović0%
Domantas Šimkus0%
Emerson0%
Ryan Camenzuli0%
Vincenzo Polito0%
Rafael Compri0%
Sven Xerri0%
Mouad El Fanis0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HIB (28)
€5m
HS (23)
€5m
FLO (22)
€5m
VF (20)
€4m
MAR (22)
€4m
MOS (24)
€3m
GU (13)
€3m
BIR (12)
€3m
BF (10)
€2m
GU (1)
€0m
ZR (1)
€0m
Marsaxlokk's squad is €1m less valuable than Hamrun Spartans's (€4m vs €5m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HIB (10)
€2m
FLO (7)
€2m
VF (7)
€2m
BIR (6)
€2m
MAR (8)
€1m
MOS (8)
€1m
HS (7)
€1m
BF (4)
€1m
GU (4)
€1m
GU (0)
€0m
ZR (0)
€0m
Marsaxlokk and Hamrun Spartans have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HS (10)
€3m
MAR (6)
€2m
VF (5)
€1m
FLO (6)
€1m
MOS (4)
€1m
GU (3)
€1m
HIB (4)
€1m
BIR (2)
€1m
BF (2)
€0m
GU (1)
€0m
ZR (0)
€0m
Marsaxlokk's midfield is €1m less valuable than Hamrun Spartans's (€2m vs €3m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HIB (14)
€3m
FLO (9)
€2m
VF (8)
€2m
GU (6)
€1m
HS (6)
€1m
MOS (12)
€1m
BIR (4)
€1m
MAR (8)
€1m
BF (4)
€1m
ZR (1)
€0m
GU (0)
€0m
Marsaxlokk and Hamrun Spartans have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Malta: Premier League 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Malta: Premier League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Birkirkara
Gzira United
Hibernians
Balzan FC
Mosta
Valletta FC
Floriana
Sirens
Gudja United
Santa Lucía
Zebbug Rangers
Pietà Hotspurs