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Mārupe vs Ogre United Result & Analysis

Date: 06/07/2024
Time: 16:00
Final 3-2
Mārupe
Mārupe
Vs
51%
25%
23%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Ogre United
Ogre United
Latvia: 1. Liga
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Mārupe win✓ Hit
51.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
25.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Ogre United win✗ Miss
23.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

MārupeMārupe

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-411D01L24L12L10W10W04L21W10W11DA·SKA06/04H·JDF14/04A·LEE20/04H·RĪG28/04A·TUK05/05H·JFK11/05A·VAL18/05H·PRO25/05A·SMI15/06A·RĒZ30/06
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.001.401.001.001.001.67
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (7)1.001.291.331.000.751.50
vs Weaker (3)1.001.670.001.001.502.00
Clean sheet %30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Ogre United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Ogre UnitedOgre United

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-500D11D03L01L05L10W02L40W33D22DA·RIG07/04H·SKA14/04H·JDF20/04H·LEE28/04A·RĪG04/05H·TUK11/05A·JFK19/05H·VAL26/05A·PRO16/06H·SMI29/06
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.101.701.331.170.752.50
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (6)1.672.172.331.001.003.33
vs Weaker (4)0.251.000.331.330.000.00
Clean sheet %30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Mārupe) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%18%24%6%013%124%222%317%410%58%6+
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
80.8%
Under 1.5
19.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
57.1%
Under 2.5
42.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
34.7%
Under 3.5
65.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
58.6%
No
41.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.8%
2-1
9.7%
2-0
8.4%
1-0
8.2%
1-2
6.3%
0-0
6.2%
3-1
5.9%
2-2
5.7%
Mārupe goals ↓
Ogre United goals →
01234
06.2%4.9%3.5%1.3%0.4%
18.2%12%6.3%2.4%0.7%
28.4%9.7%5.7%2.2%0.6%
35.1%5.9%3.4%1.3%0.4%
42.3%2.7%1.6%0.6%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Mārupe goals (down), columns = Ogre United goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Super Nova
2.50
Rīgas FS II
2.42
JDFS Alberts
2.23
Riga FC II
1.85
Skanste
1.58
Valmiera II
1.31
Mārupe
1.27
Leevon / PPK
1.19
Progress / AFA Olaine
1.15
JFK Ventspils
1.15
Ogre United
1.12
Tukums II
0.73
Smiltene
0.65
Rēzekne FA
0.54
Mārupe is 0.15 points better than Ogre United in terms of average points per game (1.27 vs 1.12).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Rīgas FS II
2.73
Super Nova
2.50
Riga FC II
2.27
JDFS Alberts
2.04
Progress / AFA Olaine
1.73
Valmiera II
1.58
Skanste
1.50
Ogre United
1.42
Leevon / PPK
1.38
JFK Ventspils
1.23
Mārupe
0.96
Tukums II
0.96
Smiltene
0.92
Rēzekne FA
0.69
Mārupe is 0.46 goals worse than Ogre United in terms of goals scored per game (0.96 vs 1.42).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Super Nova
0.42
Rīgas FS II
0.69
JDFS Alberts
0.81
Riga FC II
1.00
Skanste
1.08
JFK Ventspils
1.42
Leevon / PPK
1.46
Valmiera II
1.50
Ogre United
1.69
Mārupe
1.69
Progress / AFA Olaine
1.92
Smiltene
2.38
Tukums II
2.62
Rēzekne FA
3.23
Mārupe and Ogre United are level in goals conceded per game (both 1.69).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

MārupeMārupe

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D00D12L01L00D00D01L00D00D00DA·SKA06/04H·JDF14/04A·LEE20/04H·RĪG28/04A·TUK05/05H·JFK11/05A·VAL18/05H·PRO25/05A·SMI15/06A·RĒZ30/06
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.200.500.000.250.330.67
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (7)0.140.430.000.330.250.50
vs Weaker (3)0.330.670.000.000.501.00
Clean sheet %60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Ogre United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Ogre UnitedOgre United

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D00D02L00D01L10W01L30W10W22DA·RIG07/04H·SKA14/04H·JDF20/04H·LEE28/04A·RĪG04/05H·TUK11/05A·JFK19/05H·VAL26/05A·PRO16/06H·SMI29/06
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.700.601.000.670.250.50
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (6)1.000.671.670.670.330.67
vs Weaker (4)0.250.500.330.670.000.00
Clean sheet %60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Mārupe) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Mārupe over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mārupe over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mārupe over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ogre United over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ogre United over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ogre United over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

MārupeMārupe

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D01L12L11D10W10W03L21W10W11DA·SKA06/04H·JDF14/04A·LEE20/04H·RĪG28/04A·TUK05/05H·JFK11/05A·VAL18/05H·PRO25/05A·SMI15/06A·RĒZ30/06
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.800.901.000.750.671.00
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (7)0.860.861.330.670.501.00
vs Weaker (3)0.671.000.001.001.001.00
Clean sheet %40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Ogre United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Ogre UnitedOgre United

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-400D11D01L01L04L00D01L10W23L00DA·RIG07/04H·SKA14/04H·JDF20/04H·LEE28/04A·RĪG04/05H·TUK11/05A·JFK19/05H·VAL26/05A·PRO16/06H·SMI29/06
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.401.100.330.500.502.00
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (6)0.671.500.670.330.672.67
vs Weaker (4)0.000.500.000.670.000.00
Clean sheet %40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Mārupe) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Mārupe over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mārupe over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mārupe over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ogre United over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ogre United over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ogre United over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.580.8%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OU (27)
€3m
SN (24)
€3m
L/P (1)
€0m
RFI (1)
€0m
TI (2)
€0m
JA (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OU (12)
€2m
SN (8)
€1m
RFI (1)
€0m
TI (1)
€0m
L/P (0)
€0m
JA (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SN (6)
€1m
OU (4)
€1m
L/P (1)
€0m
JA (0)
€0m
RFI (0)
€0m
TI (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OU (11)
€1m
SN (10)
€1m
JA (1)
€0m
TI (1)
€0m
L/P (0)
€0m
RFI (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

No previous meetings
0
MĀR wins
0
Draws
0
OU wins

Head-to-head

Mārupe vs Ogre United · H/A from MĀR
DateH/AGameScore
No games.

MārupeMārupe

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
30/06/24ARēzekne FA Vs MĀR1-1
15/06/24ASmiltene Vs MĀR0-1
25/05/24HMĀR Vs Progress / AFA Olaine2-1
18/05/24AValmiera II Vs MĀR4-0
11/05/24HMĀR Vs JFK Ventspils1-0
05/05/24ATukums II Vs MĀR0-1
28/04/24HMĀR Vs Rīgas FS II1-2
20/04/24ALeevon / PPK Vs MĀR4-2
14/04/24HMĀR Vs JDFS Alberts0-1
06/04/24ASkanste Vs MĀR1-1

Ogre UnitedOgre United

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
29/06/24HOU Vs Smiltene2-2
16/06/24AProgress / AFA Olaine Vs OU3-3
26/05/24HOU Vs Valmiera II4-0
19/05/24AJFK Ventspils Vs OU2-0
11/05/24HOU Vs Tukums II1-0
04/05/24ARīgas FS II Vs OU5-0
28/04/24HOU Vs Leevon / PPK0-1
20/04/24HOU Vs JDFS Alberts0-3
14/04/24HOU Vs Skanste1-1
07/04/24ARiga FC II Vs OU0-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Mārupe
Mārupe
Latvia: 1. Liga
Recent: 4 Wins / 2 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLWWD1.40
HomeLLWW1.50
AwayLWLWD1.33
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %40%50%33%
AVG goals2.402.002.67
Over 1.5 %60%50%67%
Over 2.5 %40%50%33%
Over 3.5 %20%0%33%
Scored1.001.001.00
Conceded1.401.001.67
BTTS50%50%50%
Clean Sheet30%25%33%
Corners---
Cards---
Ogre United
Ogre United
Latvia: 1. Liga
Recent: 2 Wins / 4 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLWDD1.00
HomeLLWWD1.33
AwayDLLD0.50
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %20%33%0%
AVG goals2.802.503.25
Over 1.5 %70%67%75%
Over 2.5 %50%50%50%
Over 3.5 %40%33%50%
Scored1.101.330.75
Conceded1.701.172.50
BTTS30%33%25%
Clean Sheet30%33%25%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Super NovaSuper Nova2665
81%
2.5
6511+54
2.9
73%
54%
35%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1112.50.4
-
2Rīgas FS IIRīgas FS II2663
77%
2.4
7118+53
3.4
88%
69%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.70.7
-
3JDFS AlbertsJDFS Alberts2658
73%
2.2
5321+32
2.8
77%
50%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.00.8
-
4Riga FC IIRiga FC II2648
50%
1.8
5926+33
3.3
77%
65%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.31.0
-
5SkansteSkanste2641
46%
1.6
3928+11
2.6
58%
46%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.1
-
6Valmiera IIValmiera II2634
38%
1.3
4139+2
3.1
85%
65%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.61.5
-
7MārupeMārupe2633
35%
1.3
2544-19
2.7
65%
50%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.7
-
8Leevon / PPKLeevon / PPK2631
35%
1.2
3638-2
2.8
73%
54%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.5
-
9Progress / AFA OlaineProgress / AFA Olaine2630
31%
1.2
4550-5
3.7
92%
73%
62%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.71.9
-
10JFK VentspilsJFK Ventspils2630
31%
1.2
3237-5
2.7
77%
46%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.4
-
11Ogre UnitedOgre United2629
27%
1.1
3744-7
3.1
85%
58%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
2111.41.7
-
12Tukums IITukums II2619
19%
0.7
2568-43
3.6
88%
62%
46%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.6
-
13SmilteneSmiltene2617
15%
0.7
2462-38
3.3
92%
65%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.92.4
-
14Rēzekne FARēzekne FA2614
12%
0.5
1884-66
3.9
92%
73%
54%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.73.2
-
Latvia: 1. Liga 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Latvia: 1. Liga stats & trends →

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