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Mārupe vs Riga FC II Result & Analysis

Date: 27/07/2024
Time: 16:00
Final 0-0
Mārupe
Mārupe
Vs
21%
22%
57%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Riga FC II
Riga FC II
Latvia: 1. Liga
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Mārupe win✗ Miss
20.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
22.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Riga FC II win✗ Miss
56.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

MārupeMārupe

Last 10 – goals for & against
70-724L12L10W10W04L21W10W11D32W07LA·LEE20/04H·RĪG28/04A·TUK05/05H·JFK11/05A·VAL18/05H·PRO25/05A·SMI15/06A·RĒZ30/06H·OGR06/07A·SUP20/07
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
2.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.081.921.401.200.862.43
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (9)1.112.001.751.250.602.60
vs Weaker (3)1.001.670.001.001.502.00
Clean sheet %25% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Riga FC II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Riga FC IIRiga FC II

Last 10 – goals for & against
70-760W00D22D21W03L70W11D21W41W51WH·RĒZ20/04H·SKA28/04H·JDF04/05H·LEE11/05A·RĪG18/05A·TUK26/05A·JFK15/06H·VAL30/06A·PRO06/07H·SMI20/07
Avg total
3.9
Avg scored
2.9
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game3.000.773.310.812.640.71
vs Stronger (21)2.620.813.110.782.250.83
vs Similar (6)3.670.673.670.67--
vs Weaker (3)4.330.673.002.005.000.00
Clean sheet %43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Mārupe) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

5%11%16%22%4%010%120%222%318%412%513%6+
The model estimates around 3.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
85.9%
Under 1.5
14.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
65.5%
Under 2.5
34.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
43.5%
Under 3.5
56.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
63.6%
No
36.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.0%
1-2
9.7%
0-2
7.8%
1-3
6.9%
0-1
6.4%
2-2
6.0%
2-1
5.7%
0-3
5.5%
Mārupe goals ↓
Riga FC II goals →
01234
04.3%6.4%7.8%5.5%2.9%
13.4%10%9.7%6.9%3.6%
22.7%5.7%6.0%4.3%2.3%
31.1%2.3%2.5%1.8%0.9%
40.3%0.7%0.8%0.5%0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Mārupe goals (down), columns = Riga FC II goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Super Nova
2.50
Rīgas FS II
2.42
JDFS Alberts
2.23
Riga FC II
1.85
Skanste
1.58
Valmiera II
1.31
Mārupe
1.27
Leevon / PPK
1.19
Progress / AFA Olaine
1.15
JFK Ventspils
1.15
Ogre United
1.12
Tukums II
0.73
Smiltene
0.65
Rēzekne FA
0.54
Mārupe is 0.58 points worse than Riga FC II in terms of average points per game (1.27 vs 1.85).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Rīgas FS II
2.73
Super Nova
2.50
Riga FC II
2.27
JDFS Alberts
2.04
Progress / AFA Olaine
1.73
Valmiera II
1.58
Skanste
1.50
Ogre United
1.42
Leevon / PPK
1.38
JFK Ventspils
1.23
Mārupe
0.96
Tukums II
0.96
Smiltene
0.92
Rēzekne FA
0.69
Mārupe is 1.31 goals worse than Riga FC II in terms of goals scored per game (0.96 vs 2.27).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Super Nova
0.42
Rīgas FS II
0.69
JDFS Alberts
0.81
Riga FC II
1.00
Skanste
1.08
JFK Ventspils
1.42
Leevon / PPK
1.46
Valmiera II
1.50
Ogre United
1.69
Mārupe
1.69
Progress / AFA Olaine
1.92
Smiltene
2.38
Tukums II
2.62
Rēzekne FA
3.23
Mārupe is 0.69 goals worse than Riga FC II in terms of goals conceded per game (1.69 vs 1.00).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

MārupeMārupe

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-412L01L00D00D01L00D00D00D10W04LA·LEE20/04H·RĪG28/04A·TUK05/05H·JFK11/05A·VAL18/05H·PRO25/05A·SMI15/06A·RĒZ30/06H·OGR06/07A·SUP20/07
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.250.750.200.200.291.14
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (9)0.220.780.250.250.201.20
vs Weaker (3)0.330.670.000.000.501.00
Clean sheet %58% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Riga FC II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Riga FC IIRiga FC II

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W00D12L11D02L10W01L00D21W30WH·RĒZ20/04H·SKA28/04H·JDF04/05H·LEE11/05A·RĪG18/05A·TUK26/05A·JFK15/06H·VAL30/06A·PRO06/07H·SMI20/07
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.270.401.310.381.210.43
vs Stronger (21)1.190.331.220.111.170.50
vs Similar (6)1.500.501.500.50--
vs Weaker (3)1.330.671.002.001.500.00
Clean sheet %70% (+44pp vs league)
This opponent (Mārupe) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Mārupe over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mārupe over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mārupe over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga FC II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga FC II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga FC II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

MārupeMārupe

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-312L11D10W10W03L21W10W11D22D03LA·LEE20/04H·RĪG28/04A·TUK05/05H·JFK11/05A·VAL18/05H·PRO25/05A·SMI15/06A·RĒZ30/06H·OGR06/07A·SUP20/07
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.831.171.201.000.571.29
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (9)0.891.221.501.000.401.40
vs Weaker (3)0.671.000.001.001.001.00
Clean sheet %33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Riga FC II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Riga FC IIRiga FC II

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
60-650W00D10W10W01L60W10W21W20W21WH·RĒZ20/04H·SKA28/04H·JDF04/05H·LEE11/05A·RĪG18/05A·TUK26/05A·JFK15/06H·VAL30/06A·PRO06/07H·SMI20/07
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.730.372.000.441.430.29
vs Stronger (21)1.430.481.890.671.080.33
vs Similar (6)2.170.172.170.17--
vs Weaker (3)3.000.002.000.003.500.00
Clean sheet %67% (+40pp vs league)
This opponent (Mārupe) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Mārupe over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mārupe over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mārupe over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga FC II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga FC II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga FC II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.585.9%-------✗ Miss

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OU (27)
€3m
SN (24)
€3m
L/P (1)
€0m
RFI (1)
€0m
TI (2)
€0m
JA (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OU (12)
€2m
SN (8)
€1m
RFI (1)
€0m
TI (1)
€0m
L/P (0)
€0m
JA (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SN (6)
€1m
OU (4)
€1m
L/P (1)
€0m
JA (0)
€0m
RFI (0)
€0m
TI (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OU (11)
€1m
SN (10)
€1m
JA (1)
€0m
TI (1)
€0m
L/P (0)
€0m
RFI (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

No previous meetings
0
MĀR wins
0
Draws
0
RFI wins

Head-to-head

Mārupe vs Riga FC II · H/A from MĀR
DateH/AGameScore
No games.

MārupeMārupe

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
20/07/24ASuper Nova Vs MĀR7-0
06/07/24HMĀR Vs Ogre United3-2
30/06/24ARēzekne FA Vs MĀR1-1
15/06/24ASmiltene Vs MĀR0-1
25/05/24HMĀR Vs Progress / AFA Olaine2-1
18/05/24AValmiera II Vs MĀR4-0
11/05/24HMĀR Vs JFK Ventspils1-0
05/05/24ATukums II Vs MĀR0-1
28/04/24HMĀR Vs Rīgas FS II1-2
20/04/24ALeevon / PPK Vs MĀR4-2

Riga FC IIRiga FC II

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
20/07/24HRFI Vs Smiltene5-1
06/07/24AProgress / AFA Olaine Vs RFI1-4
30/06/24HRFI Vs Valmiera II2-1
15/06/24AJFK Ventspils Vs RFI1-1
26/05/24ATukums II Vs RFI0-7
18/05/24ARīgas FS II Vs RFI3-0
11/05/24HRFI Vs Leevon / PPK2-1
04/05/24HRFI Vs JDFS Alberts2-2
28/04/24HRFI Vs Skanste0-0
20/04/24HRFI Vs Rēzekne FA6-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Mārupe
Mārupe
Latvia: 1. Liga
Recent: 5 Wins / 1 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWDWL1.42
HomeLLWWW1.80
AwayWLWDL1.14
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %42%60%29%
AVG goals3.002.603.29
Over 1.5 %67%60%71%
Over 2.5 %50%60%43%
Over 3.5 %33%20%43%
Scored1.081.400.86
Conceded1.921.202.43
BTTS50%60%43%
Clean Sheet25%20%29%
Corners---
Cards---
Riga FC II
Riga FC II
Latvia: 1. Liga
Recent: 6 Wins / 3 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDWWW2.24
HomeDDWWW2.24
AwayWLWDW2.24
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %68%68%68%
AVG goals3.924.043.80
Over 1.5 %84%80%88%
Over 2.5 %72%76%68%
Over 3.5 %54%56%52%
Scored3.103.203.00
Conceded0.820.840.80
BTTS46%44%48%
Clean Sheet46%48%44%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Super NovaSuper Nova2665
81%
2.5
6511+54
2.9
73%
54%
35%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1112.50.4
-
2Rīgas FS IIRīgas FS II2663
77%
2.4
7118+53
3.4
88%
69%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.70.7
-
3JDFS AlbertsJDFS Alberts2658
73%
2.2
5321+32
2.8
77%
50%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.00.8
-
4Riga FC IIRiga FC II2648
50%
1.8
5926+33
3.3
77%
65%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.31.0
-
5SkansteSkanste2641
46%
1.6
3928+11
2.6
58%
46%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.1
-
6Valmiera IIValmiera II2634
38%
1.3
4139+2
3.1
85%
65%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.61.5
-
7MārupeMārupe2633
35%
1.3
2544-19
2.7
65%
50%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.7
-
8Leevon / PPKLeevon / PPK2631
35%
1.2
3638-2
2.8
73%
54%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.5
-
9Progress / AFA OlaineProgress / AFA Olaine2630
31%
1.2
4550-5
3.7
92%
73%
62%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.71.9
-
10JFK VentspilsJFK Ventspils2630
31%
1.2
3237-5
2.7
77%
46%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.4
-
11Ogre UnitedOgre United2629
27%
1.1
3744-7
3.1
85%
58%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
2111.41.7
-
12Tukums IITukums II2619
19%
0.7
2568-43
3.6
88%
62%
46%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.6
-
13SmilteneSmiltene2617
15%
0.7
2462-38
3.3
92%
65%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.92.4
-
14Rēzekne FARēzekne FA2614
12%
0.5
1884-66
3.9
92%
73%
54%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.73.2
-
Latvia: 1. Liga 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Latvia: 1. Liga stats & trends →

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