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Melita vs Fgura United Result & Analysis

Date: 11/04/2026
Time: 16:00
Final 0-1
Melita
Melita
Vs
51%
24%
25%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Fgura United
Fgura United
Malta: Challenge League
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Top picks for this game10 Squad value11 Games History12 Overall Statistics13 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Pythia gives Melita a 51% win probability against Fgura United in the Malta: Challenge League on 2026-04-11, with 24% for the draw and 25% for Fgura United. The model estimates around 3.4 total goals, with 3 the most likely total (22%) and 1-1 the most likely scoreline (10.4%). High-confidence angles (70%+): Over 1.5 (86%).

Results analysis

Melita finished 0-1 against Fgura United (Away win). Pythia had modelled a 51% home win, 24% draw and 25% away win. Missed: Over 1.5 (86%).

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Melita win✗ Miss
51.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
23.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Fgura United win✓ Hit
25.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

MelitaMelita

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-532W41W22D20W10W20W12L01L30W05LH·MAR11/01A·ZEB17/01A·SAN01/02H·BAL08/02A·VIT14/02H·SIR22/02A·BIR28/02A·PIE08/03H·ST.14/03A·SWI04/04
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.531.731.831.581.331.83
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (16)1.121.941.502.120.751.75
vs Weaker (14)2.001.502.500.501.801.90
Clean sheet %17% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Fgura United) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Fgura UnitedFgura United

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-511D01L15L42W12L13L20W12L23L04LH·GUD11/01A·PIE18/01H·SIR01/02A·MGA07/02A·SWI15/02A·BIR22/02H·ST.01/03H·BAL10/03A·SIR15/03H·PIE04/04
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
2.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.231.602.331.602.131.60
vs Stronger (22)1.821.731.751.831.901.60
vs Similar (4)4.251.508.000.003.002.00
vs Weaker (4)2.501.003.001.002.001.00
Clean sheet %20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Melita) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

5%11%16%22%4%010%121%222%318%412%512%6+
The model estimates around 3.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
85.8%
Under 1.5
14.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
65.2%
Under 2.5
34.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
43.2%
Under 3.5
56.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
65.2%
No
34.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.4%
2-1
9.5%
2-0
7.0%
1-2
6.4%
2-2
6.4%
3-1
6.3%
1-0
6.0%
3-0
4.6%
Melita goals ↓
Fgura United goals →
01234
04.4%3.8%3.2%1.5%0.5%
16.0%10%6.4%2.9%1.0%
27.0%9.5%6.4%2.9%1.0%
34.6%6.3%4.3%1.9%0.7%
42.3%3.2%2.1%1.0%0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Melita goals (down), columns = Fgura United goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Balzan FC
2.18
Swieqi United
2.14
Birzebbuga
2.04
Melita
1.67
Sirens
1.59
Pietà Hotspurs
1.59
Mgarr United
1.50
Fgura United
1.45
Gudja United
1.45
Santa Lucía
1.36
Zurrieq
1.23
St. Andrews
1.23
Vittoriosa Stars
0.95
Zebbug Rangers
0.91
Marsa
0.86
Mtarfa
0.18
Melita is 0.21 points better than Fgura United in terms of average points per game (1.67 vs 1.45).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Sirens
2.27
Balzan FC
2.27
Swieqi United
2.23
Birzebbuga
2.09
Pietà Hotspurs
1.91
Fgura United
1.86
Mgarr United
1.86
Melita
1.86
Santa Lucía
1.82
Zurrieq
1.64
Marsa
1.45
Gudja United
1.32
St. Andrews
1.18
Vittoriosa Stars
1.18
Zebbug Rangers
1.05
Mtarfa
0.45
Melita is 0.01 goals worse than Fgura United in terms of goals scored per game (1.86 vs 1.86).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Balzan FC
0.95
Gudja United
1.14
Swieqi United
1.18
Birzebbuga
1.22
Melita
1.33
Santa Lucía
1.41
Sirens
1.50
Mgarr United
1.50
Vittoriosa Stars
1.50
Pietà Hotspurs
1.55
Fgura United
1.68
Zurrieq
1.73
St. Andrews
1.73
Marsa
1.73
Zebbug Rangers
2.05
Mtarfa
4.27
Melita is 0.35 goals better than Fgura United in terms of goals conceded per game (1.33 vs 1.68).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

MelitaMelita

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-330W10W01L10W00D10W10W00D20W02LH·MAR11/01A·ZEB17/01A·SAN01/02H·BAL08/02A·VIT14/02H·SIR22/02A·BIR28/02A·PIE08/03H·ST.14/03A·SWI04/04
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.870.571.330.500.560.61
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (16)1.000.811.380.750.620.88
vs Weaker (14)0.710.291.250.000.500.40
Clean sheet %50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Fgura United) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Fgura UnitedFgura United

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D00D11D10W10W02L00D02L01L00DH·GUD11/01A·PIE18/01H·SIR01/02A·MGA07/02A·SWI15/02A·BIR22/02H·ST.01/03H·BAL10/03A·SIR15/03H·PIE04/04
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.900.600.800.731.000.47
vs Stronger (22)0.730.680.670.830.800.50
vs Similar (4)1.500.503.000.001.000.67
vs Weaker (4)1.250.250.500.502.000.00
Clean sheet %53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Melita) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 9. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.585.8%-------✗ Miss

💰 10. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BF (32)
€1m
BIR (28)
€0m
SU (27)
€0m
FU (45)
€0m
ZR (43)
€0m
ZUR (38)
€0m
GU (30)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BF (0)
€0m
BIR (0)
€0m
FU (0)
€0m
GU (0)
€0m
SU (0)
€0m
ZR (0)
€0m
ZUR (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BF (0)
€0m
BIR (0)
€0m
FU (0)
€0m
GU (0)
€0m
SU (0)
€0m
ZR (0)
€0m
ZUR (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BF (0)
€0m
BIR (0)
€0m
FU (0)
€0m
GU (0)
€0m
SU (0)
€0m
ZR (0)
€0m
ZUR (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 11. Games History

Head-to-head

Melita vs Fgura United · H/A from MEL
DateH/AGameScore
25/10/25AFgura United Vs MEL2-3
17/12/23AFgura United Vs MEL4-4
08/09/22HMEL Vs Fgura United2-4

MelitaMelita

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
04/04/26ASwieqi United Vs MEL5-0
14/03/26HMEL Vs St. Andrews3-0
08/03/26APietà Hotspurs Vs MEL1-0
28/02/26ABirzebbuga Vs MEL2-1
22/02/26HMEL Vs Sirens2-0
14/02/26AVittoriosa Stars Vs MEL0-1
08/02/26HMEL Vs Balzan FC2-0
01/02/26ASanta Lucía Vs MEL2-2
17/01/26AZebbug Rangers Vs MEL1-4
11/01/26HMEL Vs Marsa3-2

Fgura UnitedFgura United

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
04/04/26HFU Vs Pietà Hotspurs0-4
15/03/26ASirens Vs FU3-2
10/03/26HFU Vs Balzan FC1-2
01/03/26HFU Vs St. Andrews2-0
22/02/26ABirzebbuga Vs FU3-1
15/02/26ASwieqi United Vs FU2-1
07/02/26AMgarr United Vs FU2-4
01/02/26HFU Vs Sirens1-5
18/01/26APietà Hotspurs Vs FU1-0
11/01/26HFU Vs Gudja United1-1

📊 12. Overall Statistics

Melita
Melita
Malta: Challenge League
Recent: 6 Wins / 1 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLLWL1.20
HomeLWWWW1.33
AwayDWLLL1.08
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %34%42%27%
AVG goals3.123.253.00
Over 1.5 %86%88%85%
Over 2.5 %58%58%58%
Over 3.5 %42%42%42%
Scored1.441.541.35
Conceded1.681.711.65
BTTS50%42%58%
Clean Sheet22%33%12%
Corners---
Cards---
Fgura United
Fgura United
Malta: Challenge League
Recent: 2 Wins / 1 Draws / 7 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWLLL1.44
HomeDLWLL1.04
AwayLWLLL1.84
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %42%28%56%
AVG goals2.983.082.88
Over 1.5 %72%80%64%
Over 2.5 %58%52%64%
Over 3.5 %34%28%40%
Scored1.641.641.64
Conceded1.341.441.24
BTTS56%56%56%
Clean Sheet26%20%32%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 13. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Balzan FCBalzan FC2248
68%
2.2
5021+29
3.2
86%
64%
45%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0002.31.0
-
2Swieqi UnitedSwieqi United2247
64%
2.1
4926+23
3.4
91%
64%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.21.2
-
3BirzebbugaBirzebbuga2347
61%
2.0
4828+20
3.3
78%
65%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.11.2
-
4SirensSirens2235
50%
1.6
5033+17
3.8
82%
68%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.31.5
-
5MelitaMelita2135
52%
1.7
3928+11
3.2
81%
62%
48%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.91.3
-
6Pietà HotspursPietà Hotspurs2235
45%
1.6
4234+8
3.5
82%
64%
64%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.91.5
-
7Mgarr UnitedMgarr United2233
41%
1.5
4133+8
3.4
82%
55%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.91.5
-
8Fgura UnitedFgura United2232
45%
1.5
4137+4
3.5
86%
68%
45%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.91.7
-
9Gudja UnitedGudja United2232
36%
1.5
2925+4
2.5
73%
45%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.1
-
10Santa LucíaSanta Lucía2230
32%
1.4
4031+9
3.2
82%
55%
41%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.4
-
11ZurrieqZurrieq2227
36%
1.2
3638-2
3.4
82%
68%
45%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.61.7
-
12St. AndrewsSt. Andrews2227
36%
1.2
2638-12
2.9
82%
64%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.7
-
13Vittoriosa StarsVittoriosa Stars2221
23%
1.0
2633-7
2.7
68%
41%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.5
-
14Zebbug RangersZebbug Rangers2220
23%
0.9
2345-22
3.1
77%
59%
41%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.0
-
15MarsaMarsa2219
18%
0.9
3238-6
3.2
82%
64%
45%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.7
-
16MtarfaMtarfa224
5%
0.2
1094-84
4.7
95%
77%
64%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.54.3
-
Malta: Challenge League 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Malta: Challenge League stats & trends →

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