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Melita vs Pietà Hotspurs Prediction & Stats

Date: 17/10/2026
Time: 14:30
Melita
Melita
Vs
45%
24%
31%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Pietà Hotspurs
Pietà Hotspurs
Malta: Challenge League
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Melita’s recent three-match losing streak is tempered by a solid home attack, scoring 1.56 goals per game and conceding 1.33, while Pietà Hotspurs, on the road, have averaged 1.67 goals scored but are vulnerable, conceding 2.33. The model projects a 45% chance of a home win, 24% draw, and 31% away win, with the home victory being the favoured outcome. An average of 3.4 goals is expected, centring on a 3-goal total that carries a 22% probability. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 10.7% chance. Suggested selections include Under 7.5 (97.8%), Under 6.5 (94.5%), Away under 3.5 goals (93.3%), Home under 3.5 goals (88.4%), Under 5.5 (87.6%), Over 1.5 (85.8%), Home +2 handicap (85.1%), and Home over 0.5 goals (84.2%). These figures reflect the model’s confidence that a modestly high-scoring, home-side victory is most probable.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Melita win
44.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
24.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Pietà Hotspurs win
30.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

MelitaMelita

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-522D20W10W20W12L01L30W05L01L02LA·SAN01/02H·BAL08/02A·VIT14/02H·SIR22/02A·BIR28/02A·PIE08/03H·ST.14/03A·SWI04/04H·FGU11/04A·BAL19/04
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.431.631.671.251.281.89
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (23)1.091.611.561.330.791.79
vs Weaker (7)2.571.712.001.003.002.25
Clean sheet %17% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Pietà Hotspurs) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Pietà HotspursPietà Hotspurs

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-611D60W31W13L13L10W22D40W43W22DH·GUD31/01A·MTA08/02H·ZUR14/02H·SWI22/02H·BAL28/02H·MEL08/03A·BIR14/03A·FGU04/04A·SIR12/04H·ST.19/04
Avg total
4.0
Avg scored
2.5
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.901.571.761.292.081.92
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (19)1.681.841.701.401.672.33
vs Weaker (11)2.271.091.861.143.001.00
Clean sheet %30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Melita) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

5%11%16%22%4%010%121%222%318%412%512%6+
The model estimates around 3.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
85.8%
Under 1.5
14.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
65.2%
Under 2.5
34.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
43.2%
Under 3.5
56.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
66.6%
No
33.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.7%
2-1
9.0%
1-2
7.3%
2-2
6.8%
2-0
5.9%
3-1
5.5%
1-0
5.5%
0-0
4.5%
Melita goals ↓
Pietà Hotspurs goals →
01234
04.5%4.3%4.0%2.0%0.8%
15.5%11%7.3%3.7%1.4%
25.9%9.0%6.8%3.4%1.3%
33.6%5.5%4.2%2.1%0.8%
41.7%2.5%1.9%1.0%0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Melita goals (down), columns = Pietà Hotspurs goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Tarxien Rainbows
2.82
Naxxar Lions
2.73
Swieqi United
2.14
Melita
1.67
Pietà Hotspurs
1.59
Sirens
1.59
Mgarr United
1.50
Fgura United
1.45
Gudja United
1.45
Victoria Hotspurs
1.40
Attard
1.40
Santa Lucía
1.36
Zurrieq
1.23
St. Andrews
1.23
Vittoriosa Stars
0.95
Zebbug Rangers
0.91
Melita is 0.08 points better than Pietà Hotspurs in terms of average points per game (1.67 vs 1.59).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Tarxien Rainbows
3.33
Naxxar Lions
3.23
Sirens
2.27
Swieqi United
2.23
Pietà Hotspurs
1.91
Fgura United
1.86
Mgarr United
1.86
Melita
1.86
Santa Lucía
1.82
Victoria Hotspurs
1.65
Attard
1.65
Zurrieq
1.64
Gudja United
1.32
St. Andrews
1.18
Vittoriosa Stars
1.18
Zebbug Rangers
1.05
Melita is 0.05 goals worse than Pietà Hotspurs in terms of goals scored per game (1.86 vs 1.91).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Tarxien Rainbows
0.82
Naxxar Lions
0.85
Gudja United
1.14
Swieqi United
1.18
Melita
1.33
Santa Lucía
1.41
Mgarr United
1.50
Sirens
1.50
Vittoriosa Stars
1.50
Pietà Hotspurs
1.55
Victoria Hotspurs
1.65
Attard
1.65
Fgura United
1.68
Zurrieq
1.73
St. Andrews
1.73
Zebbug Rangers
2.05
Melita is 0.21 goals better than Pietà Hotspurs in terms of goals conceded per game (1.33 vs 1.55).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Melita or Draw
69.2%
Avg Implied -
45%
24%
31%
covers Melita + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Melita or Pietà Hotspurs
75.6%
Avg Implied -
45%
24%
31%
covers Melita + Pietà Hotspurs
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Pietà Hotspurs
55.3%
Avg Implied -
45%
24%
31%
covers Draw + Pietà Hotspurs
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Melita over/under 0.5
Over
84.2%
Under
15.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Melita over/under 1.5
Over
55.0%
Under
45.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Melita over/under 2.5
Over
28.1%
Under
71.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Melita over/under 3.5
Over
11.6%
Under
88.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pietà Hotspurs over/under 0.5
Over
78.0%
Under
22.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pietà Hotspurs over/under 1.5
Over
44.6%
Under
55.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pietà Hotspurs over/under 2.5
Over
19.4%
Under
80.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pietà Hotspurs over/under 3.5
Over
6.7%
Under
93.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 7. Handicap

Handicap

The handicap is applied to Melita, so a minus line means Melita give that many goals of a start and Pietà Hotspurs receive them. At -1, Melita must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Melita win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Melita)
Melita -2
11.2%
Draw -2
13.8%
Pietà Hotspurs +2
75.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Melita)
Melita -1
25.0%
Draw -1
19.7%
Pietà Hotspurs +1
55.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Melita)
Melita +1
69.2%
Draw +1
16.0%
Pietà Hotspurs -1
14.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Melita)
Melita +2
85.1%
Draw +2
9.2%
Pietà Hotspurs -2
5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

MelitaMelita

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L10W00D10W10W00D20W02L01L01LA·SAN01/02H·BAL08/02A·VIT14/02H·SIR22/02A·BIR28/02A·PIE08/03H·ST.14/03A·SWI04/04H·FGU11/04A·BAL19/04
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.770.601.170.500.500.67
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (23)0.700.651.220.560.360.71
vs Weaker (7)1.000.431.000.331.000.50
Clean sheet %47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Pietà Hotspurs) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Pietà HotspursPietà Hotspurs

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W30W30W02L01L00D01L00D12L01LH·GUD31/01A·MTA08/02H·ZUR14/02H·SWI22/02H·BAL28/02H·MEL08/03A·BIR14/03A·FGU04/04A·SIR12/04H·ST.19/04
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.870.630.940.410.770.92
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (19)0.740.790.700.400.781.22
vs Weaker (11)1.090.361.290.430.750.25
Clean sheet %57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Melita) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Melita over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Melita over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Melita over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pietà Hotspurs over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pietà Hotspurs over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pietà Hotspurs over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

MelitaMelita

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-321W10W10W10W02L01L10W03L00D01LA·SAN01/02H·BAL08/02A·VIT14/02H·SIR22/02A·BIR28/02A·PIE08/03H·ST.14/03A·SWI04/04H·FGU11/04A·BAL19/04
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.671.030.500.750.781.22
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (23)0.390.960.330.780.431.07
vs Weaker (7)1.571.291.000.672.001.75
Clean sheet %37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Pietà Hotspurs) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Pietà HotspursPietà Hotspurs

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-401L30W01L11D12L10W21W40W31W21WH·GUD31/01A·MTA08/02H·ZUR14/02H·SWI22/02H·BAL28/02H·MEL08/03A·BIR14/03A·FGU04/04A·SIR12/04H·ST.19/04
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.030.930.820.881.311.00
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (19)0.951.051.001.000.891.11
vs Weaker (11)1.180.730.570.712.250.75
Clean sheet %40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Melita) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Melita over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Melita over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Melita over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pietà Hotspurs over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pietà Hotspurs over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pietà Hotspurs over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5Edge
Under 7.597.8%-------
Under 6.594.5%-------
Away under 3.5 goals93.3%-------
Home under 3.5 goals88.4%-------
Under 5.587.6%-------
Over 1.585.8%-------
Home +2 handicap85.1%-------
Home over 0.5 goals84.2%-------
Away under 2.5 goals80.6%-------
Away over 0.5 goals78.0%-------
Home or Away75.6%-------
Under 4.575.2%-------
Away +2 handicap75.0%-------
Home under 2.5 goals71.9%-------

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NL (16)
€1m
TR (8)
€1m
SU (2)
€0m
GU (1)
€0m
ZUR (1)
€0m
ZR (1)
€0m
FU (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NL (4)
€0m
TR (2)
€0m
SU (2)
€0m
FU (1)
€0m
GU (0)
€0m
ZUR (0)
€0m
ZR (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NL (5)
€0m
TR (2)
€0m
GU (1)
€0m
SU (0)
€0m
ZUR (0)
€0m
ZR (0)
€0m
FU (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NL (7)
€1m
TR (4)
€0m
ZUR (1)
€0m
ZR (1)
€0m
SU (0)
€0m
GU (0)
€0m
FU (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

5 previous meetings
3
MEL wins
1
Draws
1
PH wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Melita vs Pietà Hotspurs · H/A from MEL
DateH/AGameScore
08/03/26APietà Hotspurs Vs MEL1-0
30/11/25HMEL Vs Pietà Hotspurs3-1
27/04/24HMEL Vs Pietà Hotspurs5-1
09/03/24APietà Hotspurs Vs MEL0-1
24/09/23APietà Hotspurs Vs MEL2-2

MelitaMelita

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
19/04/26ABalzan FC Vs MEL2-0
11/04/26HMEL Vs Fgura United0-1
04/04/26ASwieqi United Vs MEL5-0
14/03/26HMEL Vs St. Andrews3-0
08/03/26APietà Hotspurs Vs MEL1-0
28/02/26ABirzebbuga Vs MEL2-1
22/02/26HMEL Vs Sirens2-0
14/02/26AVittoriosa Stars Vs MEL0-1
08/02/26HMEL Vs Balzan FC2-0
01/02/26ASanta Lucía Vs MEL2-2

Pietà HotspursPietà Hotspurs

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
19/04/26HPH Vs St. Andrews2-2
12/04/26ASirens Vs PH3-4
04/04/26AFgura United Vs PH0-4
14/03/26ABirzebbuga Vs PH2-2
08/03/26HPH Vs Melita1-0
28/02/26HPH Vs Balzan FC1-3
22/02/26HPH Vs Swieqi United1-3
14/02/26HPH Vs Zurrieq3-1
08/02/26AMtarfa Vs PH0-6
31/01/26HPH Vs Gudja United1-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Melita
Melita
Malta: Challenge League
Recent: 4 Wins / 1 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWLLL1.20
HomeWWWWL1.33
AwayWLLLL1.08
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %34%42%27%
AVG goals3.023.082.96
Over 1.5 %84%83%85%
Over 2.5 %54%54%54%
Over 3.5 %40%38%42%
Scored1.381.461.31
Conceded1.641.621.65
BTTS46%38%54%
Clean Sheet22%33%12%
Corners---
Cards---
Pietà Hotspurs
Pietà Hotspurs
Malta: Challenge League
Recent: 5 Wins / 3 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDWWD1.52
HomeWLLWD1.78
AwayLWDWW1.22
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %44%52%35%
AVG goals3.263.003.57
Over 1.5 %78%70%87%
Over 2.5 %66%59%74%
Over 3.5 %48%44%52%
Scored1.681.741.61
Conceded1.581.261.96
BTTS62%59%65%
Clean Sheet24%30%17%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1AttardAttard00
0%
0.0
00+0
-
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.00.0
-
2SirensSirens00
0%
0.0
00+0
-
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.00.0
-
3Mgarr UnitedMgarr United00
0%
0.0
00+0
-
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.00.0
-
4Naxxar LionsNaxxar Lions00
0%
0.0
00+0
-
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0010.00.0
-
5ZurrieqZurrieq00
0%
0.0
00+0
-
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.00.0
-
6Tarxien RainbowsTarxien Rainbows00
0%
0.0
00+0
-
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0000.00.0
-
7St. AndrewsSt. Andrews00
0%
0.0
00+0
-
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.00.0
-
8Pietà HotspursPietà Hotspurs00
0%
0.0
00+0
-
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.00.0
-
9MelitaMelita00
0%
0.0
00+0
-
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.00.0
-
10Swieqi UnitedSwieqi United00
0%
0.0
00+0
-
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.00.0
-
11Santa LucíaSanta Lucía00
0%
0.0
00+0
-
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.00.0
-
12Fgura UnitedFgura United00
0%
0.0
00+0
-
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.00.0
-
13Gudja UnitedGudja United00
0%
0.0
00+0
-
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.00.0
-
14Zebbug RangersZebbug Rangers00
0%
0.0
00+0
-
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.00.0
-
15Victoria HotspursVictoria Hotspurs00
0%
0.0
00+0
-
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.00.0
-
16Vittoriosa StarsVittoriosa Stars00
0%
0.0
00+0
-
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.00.0
-
Malta: Challenge League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Malta: Challenge League stats & trends →

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