Metal Kharkiv’s defensive solidity is the headline, having conceded just 0.91 goals per game at home against similarly ranked opposition, while Chernihiv’s away defence has yielded 1.14 goals per match. The model favours a Metal Kharkiv victory, with a 44% chance of winning, 32% for a draw and 24% for Chernihiv. The expected total is 2.1 goals, centring on a 2-goal match, and the most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 14.3%. Metal Kharkiv’s home form shows 1.64 goals scored on average, whereas Chernihiv averages 0.57 goals away. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.9%), Under 6.5 (99.4%), Away under 3.5 goals (98.9%), Under 5.5 (98.0%), Home under 3.5 goals (96.2%), Away under 2.5 goals (94.7%), Under 4.5 (93.9%) and Home +2 handicap (91.9%). The match is poised for a tight, low-scoring affair with Metal Kharkiv the clear favourite.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Metal Kharkiv win
44.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
32.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Chernihiv win
22.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Metal Kharkiv
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
1.13
1.27
1.00
0.93
1.27
vs Stronger (9)
0.33
1.89
0.50
1.50
0.20
2.20
vs Similar (21)
1.43
0.81
1.55
0.82
1.30
0.80
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Chernihiv) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Chernihiv
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
1.13
1.38
1.25
0.57
1.00
vs Stronger (13)
0.92
1.15
1.29
1.43
0.50
0.83
vs Similar (16)
1.06
1.12
1.44
1.11
0.57
1.14
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
1.00
-
-
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
30% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Metal Kharkiv) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
60.6%
Under 1.5
39.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
32.3%
Under 2.5
67.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
14.3%
Under 3.5
85.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
39.5%
No
60.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0
15.2%
0-0
14.8%
1-1
14.2%
2-0
10.0%
0-1
9.3%
2-1
7.8%
1-2
5.1%
0-2
4.2%
Metal Kharkiv goals ↓
Chernihiv goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
15%
9.3%
4.2%
1.1%
0.2%
1
15%
14%
5.1%
1.3%
0.3%
2
10.0%
7.8%
3.1%
0.8%
0.2%
3
4.0%
3.2%
1.2%
0.3%
0.1%
4
1.2%
1.0%
0.4%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Metal Kharkiv goals (down), columns = Chernihiv goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Viktoriya Mykolaivka
3.00
SK Poltava
2.20
Oleksandria
2.20
Kulykiv
2.00
Prykarpattia
1.40
Ahrobiznes Volochysk
1.40
Metal Kharkiv
1.40
Inhulets
1.40
Yarud Mariupol'
1.20
Nyva Ternopil
1.20
UCSA
1.20
Chernihiv
0.80
Kolos Kovalivka II
0.60
Lokomotiv Kyiv
0.60
Polissya II
0.40
Probiy Horodenka
0.40
Metal Kharkiv is 0.60 points better than Chernihiv in terms of average points per game (1.40 vs 0.80).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Kulykiv
2.20
Oleksandria
2.20
Viktoriya Mykolaivka
1.80
Prykarpattia
1.60
SK Poltava
1.60
UCSA
1.60
Inhulets
1.40
Yarud Mariupol'
1.20
Polissya II
1.20
Metal Kharkiv
1.20
Chernihiv
1.00
Ahrobiznes Volochysk
1.00
Nyva Ternopil
1.00
Probiy Horodenka
0.80
Lokomotiv Kyiv
0.80
Kolos Kovalivka II
0.60
Metal Kharkiv is 0.20 goals better than Chernihiv in terms of goals scored per game (1.20 vs 1.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
SK Poltava
0.20
Viktoriya Mykolaivka
0.20
Oleksandria
1.00
Nyva Ternopil
1.00
Chernihiv
1.20
Prykarpattia
1.20
Kulykiv
1.20
Metal Kharkiv
1.20
Lokomotiv Kyiv
1.40
Kolos Kovalivka II
1.60
Yarud Mariupol'
1.60
UCSA
1.60
Polissya II
1.80
Ahrobiznes Volochysk
1.80
Inhulets
1.80
Probiy Horodenka
2.40
Metal Kharkiv and Chernihiv are level in goals conceded per game (both 1.20).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Metal Kharkiv or Draw
77.4%
Avg Implied -
45%
32%
23%
covers Metal Kharkiv + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Metal Kharkiv or Chernihiv
67.5%
Avg Implied -
45%
32%
23%
covers Metal Kharkiv + Chernihiv
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Chernihiv
55.1%
Avg Implied -
45%
32%
23%
covers Draw + Chernihiv
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Metal Kharkiv over/under 0.5
Over
70.3%
Under
29.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Metal Kharkiv over/under 1.5
Over
34.3%
Under
65.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Metal Kharkiv over/under 2.5
Over
12.4%
Under
87.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Metal Kharkiv over/under 3.5
Over
3.5%
Under
96.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chernihiv over/under 0.5
Over
54.3%
Under
45.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chernihiv over/under 1.5
Over
18.5%
Under
81.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chernihiv over/under 2.5
Over
4.5%
Under
95.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chernihiv over/under 3.5
Over
0.8%
Under
99.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Metal Kharkiv, so a minus line means Metal Kharkiv give that many goals of a start and Chernihiv receive them. At -1, Metal Kharkiv must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Metal Kharkiv win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Metal Kharkiv)
Metal Kharkiv -2
7.0%
Draw -2
13.6%
Chernihiv +2
79.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Metal Kharkiv)
Metal Kharkiv -1
20.6%
Draw -1
24.4%
Chernihiv +1
55.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Metal Kharkiv)
Metal Kharkiv +1
77.4%
Draw +1
15.3%
Chernihiv -1
7.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Metal Kharkiv)
Metal Kharkiv +2
92.7%
Draw +2
5.7%
Chernihiv -2
1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Metal Kharkiv
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.53
0.47
0.27
0.40
0.80
vs Stronger (9)
0.11
0.89
0.25
0.50
0.00
1.20
vs Similar (21)
0.57
0.38
0.55
0.18
0.60
0.60
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Chernihiv) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Chernihiv
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.53
0.81
0.56
0.21
0.50
vs Stronger (13)
0.46
0.69
0.57
0.71
0.33
0.67
vs Similar (16)
0.62
0.44
1.00
0.44
0.14
0.43
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Metal Kharkiv) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Metal Kharkiv over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Metal Kharkiv over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Metal Kharkiv over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chernihiv over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chernihiv over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chernihiv over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Metal Kharkiv
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.60
0.80
0.73
0.53
0.47
vs Stronger (9)
0.22
1.00
0.25
1.00
0.20
1.00
vs Similar (21)
0.86
0.43
1.00
0.64
0.70
0.20
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Chernihiv) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Chernihiv
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.60
0.56
0.69
0.36
0.50
vs Stronger (13)
0.46
0.46
0.71
0.71
0.17
0.17
vs Similar (16)
0.44
0.69
0.44
0.67
0.43
0.71
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
1.00
-
-
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Metal Kharkiv) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Metal Kharkiv over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Metal Kharkiv over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Metal Kharkiv over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chernihiv over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chernihiv over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chernihiv over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
99.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
98.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
96.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
95.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
94.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
92.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
87.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
85.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
81.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
79.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
77.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
77.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
70.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OLE (25)
€8m
SP (22)
€4m
YM (21)
€3m
NT (23)
€3m
MK (17)
€3m
UCS (23)
€2m
AV (18)
€2m
CHE (22)
€2m
VM (19)
€2m
PRY (18)
€2m
PH (20)
€1m
INH (15)
€1m
PI (5)
€1m
KKI (3)
€0m
LK (7)
€0m
Metal Kharkiv and Chernihiv have a similar squad value (both €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OLE (10)
€3m
YM (6)
€1m
SP (5)
€1m
UCS (8)
€1m
NT (9)
€1m
VM (5)
€1m
PRY (6)
€1m
PH (11)
€1m
PI (2)
€0m
MK (4)
€0m
AV (3)
€0m
CHE (4)
€0m
INH (6)
€0m
KKI (1)
€0m
LK (3)
€0m
Metal Kharkiv and Chernihiv have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
YM (7)
€1m
OLE (4)
€1m
CHE (8)
€1m
SP (7)
€1m
NT (5)
€1m
VM (8)
€1m
AV (4)
€1m
PRY (6)
€1m
MK (5)
€1m
UCS (5)
€1m
PI (1)
€0m
PH (3)
€0m
INH (5)
€0m
KKI (1)
€0m
LK (0)
€0m
Metal Kharkiv and Chernihiv have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OLE (11)
€3m
SP (10)
€2m
MK (8)
€2m
AV (11)
€1m
NT (9)
€1m
UCS (10)
€1m
CHE (10)
€1m
INH (4)
€1m
PRY (6)
€1m
YM (8)
€1m
VM (6)
€1m
PH (6)
€0m
PI (2)
€0m
LK (4)
€0m
KKI (1)
€0m
Metal Kharkiv and Chernihiv have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Ukraine: Persha Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Ukraine: Persha Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Viktoriya Mykolaivka
SK Poltava
Oleksandria
Kulykiv
Prykarpattia
Inhulets
Ahrobiznes Volochysk
UCSA
Nyva Ternopil
Yarud Mariupol'
Lokomotiv Kyiv
Kolos Kovalivka II
Polissya II
Probiy Horodenka