Metal Kharkiv’s defensive record at home is solid, conceding just under a goal per match, while Nyva Ternopil’s away form shows a higher average of 1.15 goals allowed. The model favours a Metal Kharkiv win, with a 45% chance, a 31% draw, and a 24% chance for Nyva. The expected total goals is 2.2, centring on a 2-goal total at 28%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 14.3% probability. Metal Kharkiv will score an average of 1.64 goals at home and concede 0.91, whereas Nyva will average 0.92 goals away and concede 1.15 against similar opposition. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.8%), Under 6.5 (99.3%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.8%), Away under 3.5 goals (98.7%), Away under 2.5 2H goals (98.0%), Under 5.5 (97.6%), Home under 2.5 HT goals (97.3%), and Home under 2.5 2H goals (96.5%). Metal Kharkiv’s recent form shows a return from defeat, while Nyva comes off a win, adding a subtle edge to the home side’s confidence.
Results analysis
The match ended 1-1, a draw that left the pre-match favourite, Home win, disappointed. The model had given Metal Kharkiv a 45% chance to triumph, but the result was a stalemate. The model’s selection was therefore wrong. Every suggested pick proved accurate: Under 7.5 (99.8%) hit, Under 6.5 (99.3%) hit, Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.8%) hit, Away under 3.5 goals (98.7%) hit, Away under 2.5 2H goals (97.9%) hit, Under 5.5 (97.6%) hit, Home under 2.5 HT goals (97.4%) hit, and Home under 2.5 2H goals (96.2%) hit. Both sides finished the game level after coming off a draw in their previous fixtures.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Metal Kharkiv win✗ Miss
44.7%
Avg Implied 44.8% · @ 2.04
Edge
-0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
2.07
Superbet
2.02
1xBet
2.02
Draw✓ Hit
31.1%
Avg Implied 28.5% · @ 3.21
Edge
+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
3.30
Superbet
3.20
1xBet
3.12
Nyva Ternopil win✗ Miss
24.2%
Avg Implied 26.7% · @ 3.42
Edge
-2.6%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
3.50
Dafabet
3.40
Superbet
3.35
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Metal Kharkiv
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
1.17
1.33
1.07
0.93
1.27
vs Stronger (9)
0.33
1.89
0.50
1.50
0.20
2.20
vs Similar (21)
1.48
0.86
1.64
0.91
1.30
0.80
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Nyva Ternopil) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Nyva Ternopil
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
1.10
0.77
1.15
0.88
1.06
vs Stronger (8)
0.50
0.88
0.25
1.00
0.75
0.75
vs Similar (22)
0.95
1.18
1.00
1.22
0.92
1.15
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Metal Kharkiv) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
65.2%
@ 1.41-0.3%
Under 1.5
34.8%
@ 2.68+0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.41
Under
1xBet
2.68
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
37.1%
@ 2.25-4.0%
Under 2.5
62.9%
@ 1.57+4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.25
Under
1xBet
1.57
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
17.6%
Under 3.5
82.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
43.8%
@ 2.06-2.3%
No
56.2%
@ 1.76+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
1xBet
2.06
No
1xBet
1.76
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
14.3%@ 4.82+6.4%
1-0
13.4%@ 4.60+5.1%
0-0
12.7%@ 5.96+6.3%
2-0
9.5%@ 6.62+3.8%
0-1
8.7%@ 6.37+2.8%
2-1
8.4%@ 6.95+2.9%
1-2
5.7%@ 9.65+1.8%
0-2
4.4%@ 12.90+1.5%
Metal Kharkiv goals ↓
Nyva Ternopil goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
13%
8.7%
4.4%
1.3%
0.3%
1
13%
14%
5.7%
1.7%
0.4%
2
9.5%
8.4%
3.7%
1.1%
0.2%
3
4.1%
3.6%
1.6%
0.5%
0.1%
4
1.3%
1.2%
0.5%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Metal Kharkiv goals (down), columns = Nyva Ternopil goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Viktoriya Mykolaivka
3.00
SK Poltava
2.20
Oleksandria
2.20
Kulykiv
2.00
Prykarpattia
1.40
Ahrobiznes Volochysk
1.40
Metal Kharkiv
1.40
Inhulets
1.40
Yarud Mariupol'
1.20
Nyva Ternopil
1.20
UCSA
1.20
Chernihiv
0.80
Kolos Kovalivka II
0.60
Lokomotiv Kyiv
0.60
Polissya II
0.40
Probiy Horodenka
0.40
Metal Kharkiv is 0.20 points better than Nyva Ternopil in terms of average points per game (1.40 vs 1.20).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Kulykiv
2.20
Oleksandria
2.20
Viktoriya Mykolaivka
1.80
Prykarpattia
1.60
SK Poltava
1.60
UCSA
1.60
Inhulets
1.40
Yarud Mariupol'
1.20
Polissya II
1.20
Metal Kharkiv
1.20
Chernihiv
1.00
Ahrobiznes Volochysk
1.00
Nyva Ternopil
1.00
Probiy Horodenka
0.80
Lokomotiv Kyiv
0.80
Kolos Kovalivka II
0.60
Metal Kharkiv is 0.20 goals better than Nyva Ternopil in terms of goals scored per game (1.20 vs 1.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
SK Poltava
0.20
Viktoriya Mykolaivka
0.20
Oleksandria
1.00
Nyva Ternopil
1.00
Chernihiv
1.20
Prykarpattia
1.20
Kulykiv
1.20
Metal Kharkiv
1.20
Lokomotiv Kyiv
1.40
Kolos Kovalivka II
1.60
Yarud Mariupol'
1.60
UCSA
1.60
Polissya II
1.80
Ahrobiznes Volochysk
1.80
Inhulets
1.80
Probiy Horodenka
2.40
Metal Kharkiv is 0.20 goals worse than Nyva Ternopil in terms of goals conceded per game (1.20 vs 1.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Metal Kharkiv or Draw✓ Hit
75.8%
Avg Implied -
45%
31%
24%
covers Metal Kharkiv + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Metal Kharkiv or Nyva Ternopil✗ Miss
68.9%
Avg Implied -
45%
31%
24%
covers Metal Kharkiv + Nyva Ternopil
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Nyva Ternopil✓ Hit
55.3%
Avg Implied -
45%
31%
24%
covers Draw + Nyva Ternopil
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Metal Kharkiv over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
72.5%
@ 1.27+0.6%
Under
27.5%
@ 3.25-0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.27
Under
1xBet
3.25
Metal Kharkiv over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
37.0%
@ 2.31-3.0%
Under
63.0%
@ 1.54+3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.31
Under
1xBet
1.54
Metal Kharkiv over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
14.1%
Under
85.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Metal Kharkiv over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
4.2%
Under
95.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nyva Ternopil over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
58.6%
@ 1.52-1.6%
Under
41.4%
@ 2.30+1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.52
Under
1xBet
2.30
Nyva Ternopil over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
22.1%
@ 3.47-4.5%
Under
77.9%
@ 1.26+4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
3.47
Under
1xBet
1.26
Nyva Ternopil over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
6.0%
Under
94.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nyva Ternopil over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
1.3%
Under
98.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Metal Kharkiv, so a minus line means Metal Kharkiv give that many goals of a start and Nyva Ternopil receive them. At -1, Metal Kharkiv must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Metal Kharkiv win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Metal Kharkiv)Actual: Nyva Ternopil
Metal Kharkiv -2
7.6%
Draw -2
13.7%
Nyva Ternopil +2
78.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Metal Kharkiv)Actual: Nyva Ternopil
Metal Kharkiv -1
21.2%
Draw -1
23.5%
Nyva Ternopil +1
55.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Metal Kharkiv)Actual: Metal Kharkiv
Metal Kharkiv +1
75.8%
Draw +1
15.6%
Nyva Ternopil -1
8.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Metal Kharkiv)Actual: Metal Kharkiv
Metal Kharkiv +2
91.5%
Draw +2
6.4%
Nyva Ternopil -2
2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Metal Kharkiv
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.53
0.53
0.27
0.40
0.80
vs Stronger (9)
0.11
0.89
0.25
0.50
0.00
1.20
vs Similar (21)
0.62
0.38
0.64
0.18
0.60
0.60
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Nyva Ternopil) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Nyva Ternopil
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.33
0.54
0.31
0.29
0.35
vs Stronger (8)
0.00
0.38
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.25
vs Similar (22)
0.55
0.32
0.78
0.22
0.38
0.38
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
70% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Metal Kharkiv) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
66.0%
@ 1.48+3.5%
Under 0.5
34.0%
@ 2.47-3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.48
Under
1xBet
2.47
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
28.8%
@ 3.20-0.1%
Under 1.5
71.2%
@ 1.30+0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
3.20
Under
1xBet
1.30
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
9.6%
Under 2.5
90.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Metal Kharkiv over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
45.8%
@ 2.57+10.2%
Under
54.2%
@ 1.42-10.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.57
Under
1xBet
1.42
Metal Kharkiv over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
13.2%
Under
86.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Metal Kharkiv over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
2.6%
Under
97.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nyva Ternopil over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
34.6%
@ 2.02-10.6%
Under
65.4%
@ 1.67+10.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.02
Under
1xBet
1.67
Nyva Ternopil over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
8.2%
Under
91.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nyva Ternopil over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.2%
Under
98.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Metal Kharkiv
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.63
0.80
0.80
0.53
0.47
vs Stronger (9)
0.22
1.00
0.25
1.00
0.20
1.00
vs Similar (21)
0.86
0.48
1.00
0.73
0.70
0.20
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Nyva Ternopil) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Nyva Ternopil
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.77
0.23
0.85
0.59
0.71
vs Stronger (8)
0.50
0.50
0.25
0.50
0.75
0.50
vs Similar (22)
0.41
0.86
0.22
1.00
0.54
0.77
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Metal Kharkiv) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
75.6%
@ 1.31+5.0%
Under 0.5
24.4%
@ 3.15-5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.31
Under
1xBet
3.15
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
38.8%
Under 1.5
61.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
13.8%
Under 2.5
86.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Metal Kharkiv over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
52.6%
Under
47.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Metal Kharkiv over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
16.8%
Under
83.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Metal Kharkiv over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
3.8%
Under
96.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nyva Ternopil over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
42.0%
Under
58.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nyva Ternopil over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
11.1%
Under
88.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nyva Ternopil over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.1%
Under
97.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
99.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
98.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
97.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
96.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
95.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
94.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
93.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
91.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
91.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
90.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
88.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
86.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
86.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
85.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
83.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
82.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
78.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 goals
77.9%
1.26
1xBet
1.26
-
-
-
-
+4.5%
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
75.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
75.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
75.6%
1.31
1xBet
1.31
-
-
-
-
+5.0%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
72.5%
1.27
1xBet
1.27
-
-
-
-
+0.6%
✓ Hit
Under 1.5 HT goals
71.2%
1.30
1xBet
1.30
-
-
-
-
+0.1%
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OLE (25)
€8m
SP (22)
€4m
YM (21)
€3m
NT (23)
€3m
MK (17)
€3m
UCS (23)
€2m
AV (18)
€2m
CHE (22)
€2m
VM (19)
€2m
PRY (18)
€2m
PH (20)
€1m
INH (15)
€1m
PI (5)
€1m
KKI (3)
€0m
LK (7)
€0m
Metal Kharkiv and Nyva Ternopil have a similar squad value (both €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OLE (10)
€3m
YM (6)
€1m
SP (5)
€1m
UCS (8)
€1m
NT (9)
€1m
VM (5)
€1m
PRY (6)
€1m
PH (11)
€1m
PI (2)
€0m
MK (4)
€0m
AV (3)
€0m
CHE (4)
€0m
INH (6)
€0m
KKI (1)
€0m
LK (3)
€0m
Metal Kharkiv and Nyva Ternopil have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
YM (7)
€1m
OLE (4)
€1m
CHE (8)
€1m
SP (7)
€1m
NT (5)
€1m
VM (8)
€1m
AV (4)
€1m
PRY (6)
€1m
MK (5)
€1m
UCS (5)
€1m
PI (1)
€0m
PH (3)
€0m
INH (5)
€0m
KKI (1)
€0m
LK (0)
€0m
Metal Kharkiv and Nyva Ternopil have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OLE (11)
€3m
SP (10)
€2m
MK (8)
€2m
AV (11)
€1m
NT (9)
€1m
UCS (10)
€1m
CHE (10)
€1m
INH (4)
€1m
PRY (6)
€1m
YM (8)
€1m
VM (6)
€1m
PH (6)
€0m
PI (2)
€0m
LK (4)
€0m
KKI (1)
€0m
Metal Kharkiv and Nyva Ternopil have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Ukraine: Persha Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Ukraine: Persha Liga stats & trends →