Metal Kharkiv host Oleksandria in a high-scoring matchup, with an expected total of 3.3 goals. The away side's recent form is impressive, coming off a 3-0 win over Inhulets, and their away scoring average of 2.67 goals per game against a weaker opponent suggests they can capitalize on Metal Kharkiv's defensive struggles, conceding 1.33 goals per game at home.
The model predicts an away win, with a 44% probability, and the most likely correct score is a 1-1 draw, occurring 10.9% of the time. Metal Kharkiv's home scoring average is 0.33 goals per game against a stronger opponent, while Oleksandria's away scoring average is 2.67 goals per game against a weaker opponent.
The model's selection is the away win, with the home win percentage at 31%, draw percentage at 25%, and away win percentage at 44%. The model's selection for the total goals is Over 1.5, occurring 85.2% of the time.
Results analysis
The win extends Metal Kharkiv's losing streak to five games, following a 0-2 defeat at home to Oleksandria. Meanwhile, Oleksandria's 2-game winning run continues, with a convincing 2-0 victory over Metal Kharkiv. The final score of 0-2 reflects the actual result of the match, an away win for Oleksandria. The model correctly predicted the outcome, selecting an away win as its pick, which carried a pre-match probability of 44%. The model's selection was correct. The model also suggested an Over 1.5 goals outcome, which hit with an 85.2% probability, and no other suggested picks were settled.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Metal Kharkiv win✗ Miss
31.1%
Avg Implied 19.5% · @ 4.64
Edge
+11.7%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
4.80
Betfair
4.75
Marathonbet
4.60
William Hil
4.60
1xBet
4.58
Draw✗ Miss
24.7%
Avg Implied 26.8% · @ 3.37
Edge
-2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
3.60
Dafabet
3.40
Bet365
3.40
1xBet
3.37
Marathonbet
3.34
Oleksandria win✓ Hit
44.2%
Avg Implied 53.7% · @ 1.68
Edge
-9.6%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
1.72
William Hil
1.70
1xBet
1.70
Marathonbet
1.68
Bet365
1.67
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Metal Kharkiv
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
1.13
1.43
1.00
0.88
1.25
vs Stronger (8)
0.38
1.88
0.67
1.33
0.20
2.20
vs Similar (22)
1.41
0.86
1.64
0.91
1.18
0.82
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Oleksandria) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Oleksandria
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
1.73
0.81
1.62
1.29
1.86
vs Stronger (5)
0.60
2.60
0.00
3.00
1.50
2.00
vs Similar (21)
0.90
1.48
1.00
1.45
0.80
1.50
vs Weaker (4)
2.25
2.00
1.00
0.50
3.50
3.50
Clean sheet %
7% (-25pp vs league)
This opponent (Metal Kharkiv) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
85.2%
@ 1.30+15.7%
Under 1.5
14.8%
@ 2.97-15.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.30
Marathonbet
1.30
Under
1xBet
2.97
Marathonbet
2.97
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
64.3%
@ 2.02+18.2%
Under 2.5
35.7%
@ 1.72-18.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.05
Marathonbet
2.00
1xBet
2.00
Under
Bet365
1.75
1xBet
1.71
Marathonbet
1.71
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
42.2%
@ 3.34+15.1%
Under 3.5
57.8%
@ 1.24-15.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
3.34
1xBet
3.34
Under
1xBet
1.24
Marathonbet
1.24
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
66.0%
@ 1.89+17.3%
No
34.0%
@ 1.79-17.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
William Hil
1.91
Marathonbet
1.90
1xBet
1.89
Betfair
1.85
No
Betfair
1.85
1xBet
1.80
Marathonbet
1.75
William Hil
1.75
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.9%@ 6.48+4.4%
1-2
9.0%@ 7.92+3.6%
2-1
7.4%@ 14.50+4.5%
2-2
6.7%@ 15.10+3.9%
0-2 ✓
6.0%@ 7.10+0.0%
0-1
5.6%@ 5.80-1.7%
1-3
5.4%@ 13.95+2.4%
0-0
4.6%@ 8.28-0.5%
Metal Kharkiv goals ↓
Oleksandria goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.6%
5.6%
6.0%
3.6%
1.6%
1
4.5%
11%
9.0%
5.4%
2.5%
2
4.1%
7.4%
6.7%
4.1%
1.8%
3
2.1%
3.7%
3.4%
2.0%
0.9%
4
0.8%
1.4%
1.3%
0.8%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Metal Kharkiv goals (down), columns = Oleksandria goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Viktoriya Mykolaivka
3.00
SK Poltava
2.20
Oleksandria
2.20
Kulykiv
2.00
Prykarpattia
1.40
Ahrobiznes Volochysk
1.40
Metal Kharkiv
1.40
Inhulets
1.40
Yarud Mariupol'
1.20
Nyva Ternopil
1.20
UCSA
1.20
Chernihiv
0.80
Kolos Kovalivka II
0.60
Lokomotiv Kyiv
0.60
Polissya II
0.40
Probiy Horodenka
0.40
Metal Kharkiv is 0.80 points worse than Oleksandria in terms of average points per game (1.40 vs 2.20).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Kulykiv
2.20
Oleksandria
2.20
Viktoriya Mykolaivka
1.80
Prykarpattia
1.60
SK Poltava
1.60
UCSA
1.60
Inhulets
1.40
Yarud Mariupol'
1.20
Polissya II
1.20
Metal Kharkiv
1.20
Chernihiv
1.00
Ahrobiznes Volochysk
1.00
Nyva Ternopil
1.00
Probiy Horodenka
0.80
Lokomotiv Kyiv
0.80
Kolos Kovalivka II
0.60
Metal Kharkiv is 1.00 goals worse than Oleksandria in terms of goals scored per game (1.20 vs 2.20).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
SK Poltava
0.20
Viktoriya Mykolaivka
0.20
Oleksandria
1.00
Nyva Ternopil
1.00
Chernihiv
1.20
Prykarpattia
1.20
Kulykiv
1.20
Metal Kharkiv
1.20
Lokomotiv Kyiv
1.40
Kolos Kovalivka II
1.60
Yarud Mariupol'
1.60
UCSA
1.60
Polissya II
1.80
Ahrobiznes Volochysk
1.80
Inhulets
1.80
Probiy Horodenka
2.40
Metal Kharkiv is 0.20 goals worse than Oleksandria in terms of goals conceded per game (1.20 vs 1.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Metal Kharkiv
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.57
0.57
0.29
0.38
0.81
vs Stronger (8)
0.12
1.00
0.33
0.67
0.00
1.20
vs Similar (22)
0.59
0.41
0.64
0.18
0.55
0.64
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Oleksandria) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Oleksandria
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.60
0.38
0.69
0.57
0.50
vs Stronger (5)
0.20
0.80
0.00
1.00
0.50
0.50
vs Similar (21)
0.33
0.57
0.36
0.73
0.30
0.40
vs Weaker (4)
1.50
0.50
1.00
0.00
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Metal Kharkiv) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Metal Kharkiv over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Metal Kharkiv over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Metal Kharkiv over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Oleksandria over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Oleksandria over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Oleksandria over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Metal Kharkiv
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.57
0.86
0.71
0.50
0.44
vs Stronger (8)
0.25
0.88
0.33
0.67
0.20
1.00
vs Similar (22)
0.82
0.45
1.00
0.73
0.64
0.18
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Oleksandria) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Oleksandria
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
1.13
0.44
0.94
0.71
1.36
vs Stronger (5)
0.40
1.80
0.00
2.00
1.00
1.50
vs Similar (21)
0.57
0.90
0.64
0.73
0.50
1.10
vs Weaker (4)
0.75
1.50
0.00
0.50
1.50
2.50
Clean sheet %
23% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Metal Kharkiv) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Metal Kharkiv over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Metal Kharkiv over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Metal Kharkiv over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Oleksandria over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Oleksandria over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Oleksandria over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
85.2%
1.30
1xBet
1.30
Marathonbet
1.30
-
-
-
+15.7%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Oleksandria · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Papa Ndiaga Yade17%
Bryan Castillo11%
Hussayn Touati11%
Jota11%
Miguel Campos9%
Tedi Cara8%
Bogdan Butko0%
Serhii Buletsa0%
Mauro Rodrigues0%
Dmytro Myshnyov0%
Artem Kozak0%
Théo Ndicka Matam0%
Danil Skorko0%
Andrii Kulakov0%
Fernando Henrique0%
Denys Shostak0%
Anton Bol0%
Jocelin Behiratche0%
Illia Ukhan0%
Mykola Oharkov0%
Dmytro Chernysh0%
Vaschenko Daniel0%
Viktor Dolhyi0%
Nazar Makarenko0%
Mateus Amaral0%
Jonathan Ferreira da Silva0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Denys Shostak50%
Jocelin Behiratche50%
Illia Ukhan50%
Danil Skorko43%
Papa Ndiaga Yade33%
Théo Ndicka Matam33%
Jonathan Ferreira da Silva29%
Vaschenko Daniel27%
Bryan Castillo22%
Hussayn Touati22%
Bogdan Butko20%
Mykola Oharkov20%
Fernando Henrique18%
Dmytro Myshnyov15%
Andrii Kulakov12%
Miguel Campos9%
Anton Bol9%
Tedi Cara8%
Serhii Buletsa0%
Mauro Rodrigues0%
Artem Kozak0%
Jota0%
Dmytro Chernysh0%
Viktor Dolhyi0%
Nazar Makarenko0%
Mateus Amaral0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Bryan Castillo11%
Hussayn Touati11%
Jota11%
Mykola Oharkov10%
Bogdan Butko0%
Serhii Buletsa0%
Tedi Cara0%
Mauro Rodrigues0%
Dmytro Myshnyov0%
Artem Kozak0%
Papa Ndiaga Yade0%
Miguel Campos0%
Théo Ndicka Matam0%
Danil Skorko0%
Andrii Kulakov0%
Fernando Henrique0%
Denys Shostak0%
Anton Bol0%
Jocelin Behiratche0%
Illia Ukhan0%
Dmytro Chernysh0%
Vaschenko Daniel0%
Viktor Dolhyi0%
Nazar Makarenko0%
Mateus Amaral0%
Jonathan Ferreira da Silva0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Papa Ndiaga Yade17%
Andrii Kulakov12%
Miguel Campos9%
Anton Bol9%
Bogdan Butko0%
Serhii Buletsa0%
Tedi Cara0%
Mauro Rodrigues0%
Bryan Castillo0%
Dmytro Myshnyov0%
Artem Kozak0%
Théo Ndicka Matam0%
Danil Skorko0%
Hussayn Touati0%
Fernando Henrique0%
Denys Shostak0%
Jocelin Behiratche0%
Illia Ukhan0%
Jota0%
Mykola Oharkov0%
Dmytro Chernysh0%
Vaschenko Daniel0%
Viktor Dolhyi0%
Nazar Makarenko0%
Mateus Amaral0%
Jonathan Ferreira da Silva0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OLE (25)
€8m
SP (22)
€4m
YM (21)
€3m
NT (23)
€3m
MK (17)
€3m
UCS (23)
€2m
AV (18)
€2m
CHE (22)
€2m
VM (19)
€2m
PRY (18)
€2m
PH (20)
€1m
INH (15)
€1m
PI (5)
€1m
KKI (3)
€0m
LK (7)
€0m
Metal Kharkiv's squad is €5m less valuable than Oleksandria's (€3m vs €8m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OLE (10)
€3m
YM (6)
€1m
SP (5)
€1m
UCS (8)
€1m
NT (9)
€1m
VM (5)
€1m
PRY (6)
€1m
PH (11)
€1m
PI (2)
€0m
MK (4)
€0m
AV (3)
€0m
CHE (4)
€0m
INH (6)
€0m
KKI (1)
€0m
LK (3)
€0m
Metal Kharkiv's attack is €3m less valuable than Oleksandria's (€0m vs €3m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
YM (7)
€1m
OLE (4)
€1m
CHE (8)
€1m
SP (7)
€1m
NT (5)
€1m
VM (8)
€1m
AV (4)
€1m
PRY (6)
€1m
MK (5)
€1m
UCS (5)
€1m
PI (1)
€0m
PH (3)
€0m
INH (5)
€0m
KKI (1)
€0m
LK (0)
€0m
Metal Kharkiv and Oleksandria have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OLE (11)
€3m
SP (10)
€2m
MK (8)
€2m
AV (11)
€1m
NT (9)
€1m
UCS (10)
€1m
CHE (10)
€1m
INH (4)
€1m
PRY (6)
€1m
YM (8)
€1m
VM (6)
€1m
PH (6)
€0m
PI (2)
€0m
LK (4)
€0m
KKI (1)
€0m
Metal Kharkiv's defence is €2m less valuable than Oleksandria's (€2m vs €3m).
Ukraine: Persha Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Ukraine: Persha Liga stats & trends →