Metal Kharkiv vs Probiy Horodenka Result & Analysis

Date: 01/08/2026

Time: 10:00

Final 3-1

Metal Kharkiv

42%

33%

25%

■ Home ■ Draw ■ Away

Probiy Horodenka

Ukraine: Persha Liga

Referee: -

Match preview & prediction

Metal Kharkiv's defensive solidity has been evident in their recent form, having won two of their last four matches. The team has conceded just 0.92 goals on average at home, a testament to their organized backline. Probiy Horodenka, on the other hand, has struggled to find the net away from home, scoring an average of 0.62 goals against opponents of similar strength.

The model predicts a low-scoring match, with an expected total of 2 goals. The single most likely scoreline is 0-0, with a probability of 15.2%. The model's selection is the Home win, which has a 42% chance of occurring. The draw percentage stands at 33%, while the away win percentage is 25%.

The model's selection for the match result is the Home win. The model's selection for the total goals is Under 3.5, which has an 86.2% chance of occurring. The home side's home scoring average is 1.42 goals, and their home conceding average is 0.92 goals. The away side's away scoring average is 0.62 goals, and their away conceding average is 1 goal.

Results analysis

The win extends Metal Kharkiv's 2-game run. The final score was 3-1, a result that exceeded the model's expectations of a 2-goal total. The model correctly predicted a home win, with Metal Kharkiv being the favourite at 42% probability of winning. The model's selection was correct. The model also suggested an Under 3.5 total, which missed by a significant margin, with a probability of 86.2%. The most likely scores according to the model were 0-0, 1-0, and 1-1, each with a probability of around 15%. Metal Kharkiv's recent form has been impressive, with a 2-game winning streak, while Probiy Horodenka was coming off a draw.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Metal Kharkiv win✓ Hit

42.0%

Avg Implied 41.3% · @ 2.19

Edge

+0.7%

Best 5 market prices

Dafabet

2.21

Superbet

2.20

Betano

2.20

1xBet

2.20

Betfair

2.20

Draw✗ Miss

33.2%

Avg Implied 28.7% · @ 3.15

Edge

+4.4%

Best 5 market prices

Bet365

3.25

Dafabet

3.25

Marathonbet

3.18

Superbet

3.15

Betfair

3.10

Probiy Horodenka win✗ Miss

24.9%

Avg Implied 30.0% · @ 3.02

Edge

-5.1%

Best 5 market prices

Dafabet

3.10

1xBet

3.09

Betano

3.05

Betfair

3.00

Superbet

3.00

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Metal Kharkiv

Last 10 – goals for & against

Avg total

2.4

Avg scored

1.1

Avg conceded

1.3

Split	Total Scored	Total Conceded	Home Scored	Home Conceded	Away Scored	Away Conceded
Avg goals/game	1.03	1.17	1.29	1.00	0.81	1.31
vs Stronger (8)	0.25	1.88	0.33	1.33	0.20	2.20
vs Similar (22)	1.32	0.91	1.55	0.91	1.09	0.91
vs Weaker (0)	-	-	-	-	-	-
Clean sheet %	20% (-12pp vs league)

This opponent (Probiy Horodenka) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Probiy Horodenka

Last 10 – goals for & against

Avg total

2.1

Avg scored

1.1

Avg conceded

1.0

Split	Total Scored	Total Conceded	Home Scored	Home Conceded	Away Scored	Away Conceded
Avg goals/game	1.00	1.30	1.20	1.53	0.80	1.07
vs Stronger (17)	1.12	1.47	1.11	1.67	1.12	1.25
vs Similar (13)	0.85	1.08	1.33	1.33	0.43	0.86
vs Weaker (0)	-	-	-	-	-	-
Clean sheet %	37% (+5pp vs league)

This opponent (Metal Kharkiv) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

The model estimates around 2.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).

Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over

Over 1.5

60.0%

@ 1.42-3.9%

Under 1.5

40.0%

@ 2.51+3.9%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Superbet

1.44

1xBet

1.41

Marathonbet

1.41

Under

1xBet

2.52

Marathonbet

2.52

Superbet

2.50

Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over

Over 2.5

31.6%

@ 2.32-7.9%

Under 2.5

68.4%

@ 1.52+7.9%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Bet365

2.38

Superbet

2.35

1xBet

2.31

Marathonbet

2.31

Betano

2.27

Under

1xBet

1.53

Marathonbet

1.53

Bet365

1.53

Betano

1.50

Superbet

1.50

Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over

Over 3.5

13.8%

@ 4.30-7.1%

Under 3.5

86.2%

@ 1.14+7.1%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Marathonbet

4.33

1xBet

4.33

Superbet

4.25

Under

Marathonbet

1.14

1xBet

1.14

Superbet

1.14

Both teams to scoreActual: Yes

Yes

39.7%

@ 2.04-5.4%

60.3%

@ 1.67+5.4%

Best 5 market prices

Yes

Superbet

2.10

1xBet

2.05

Marathonbet

1.97

Marathonbet

1.69

1xBet

1.67

Superbet

1.66

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).

0-0

15.2%@ 6.98+9.4%

1-0

14.7%@ 5.77+7.6%

1-1

14.5%@ 5.83+7.5%

0-1

10.1%@ 6.92+4.2%

2-0

9.2%@ 8.54+4.4%

2-1

7.6%@ 8.86+3.0%

1-2

5.4%@ 10.53+1.6%

0-2

4.7%@ 12.30+1.4%

Metal Kharkiv goals ↓

	Probiy Horodenka goals →
	0	1	2	3	4
0	15%	10%	4.7%	1.3%	0.3%
1	15%	14%	5.4%	1.5%	0.3%
2	9.2%	7.6%	3.1%	0.9%	0.2%
3	3.5%	2.9%	1.2%	0.3%	0.1%
4	1.0%	0.8%	0.3%	0.1%	0.0%

Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Metal Kharkiv goals (down), columns = Probiy Horodenka goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game

Oleksandria

1.96

Polissya II

1.79

Ahrobiznes Volochysk

1.77

SK Poltava

1.61

Inhulets

1.53

Kulykiv

1.38

Metal Kharkiv

1.23

Yarud Mariupol'

1.20

Probiy Horodenka

1.20

UCSA

1.20

Viktoriya Mykolaivka

1.20

Prykarpattia

1.17

Nyva Ternopil

1.17

Lokomotiv Kyiv

1.04

Chernihiv

1.03

Kolos Kovalivka II

0.92

Metal Kharkiv is 0.03 points better than Probiy Horodenka in terms of average points per game (1.23 vs 1.20).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game

Oleksandria

1.62

Polissya II

1.48

Inhulets

1.37

SK Poltava

1.33

Viktoriya Mykolaivka

1.23

Ahrobiznes Volochysk

1.20

Kulykiv

1.14

Prykarpattia

1.03

Yarud Mariupol'

1.03

Metal Kharkiv

1.03

Chernihiv

1.00

UCSA

1.00

Probiy Horodenka

0.97

Lokomotiv Kyiv

0.86

Nyva Ternopil

0.83

Kolos Kovalivka II

0.76

Metal Kharkiv is 0.07 goals better than Probiy Horodenka in terms of goals scored per game (1.03 vs 0.97).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better

Oleksandria

0.80

Polissya II

0.88

Ahrobiznes Volochysk

0.93

SK Poltava

0.98

Yarud Mariupol'

1.07

Inhulets

1.07

Nyva Ternopil

1.07

Prykarpattia

1.14

Kulykiv

1.14

Metal Kharkiv

1.17

Chernihiv

1.20

Probiy Horodenka

1.23

Viktoriya Mykolaivka

1.27

UCSA

1.33

Lokomotiv Kyiv

1.51

Kolos Kovalivka II

1.71

Metal Kharkiv is 0.07 goals better than Probiy Horodenka in terms of goals conceded per game (1.17 vs 1.23).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.

Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🔢 6. Odd / Even

🥅 7. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 8. Handicap

🔥 9. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.

Pick	Probability	Avg odds	Best 1	Best 2	Best 3	Best 4	Best 5	Edge	Result
Under 3.5	86.2%	1.14	Marathonbet 1.14	1xBet 1.14	Superbet 1.14	-	-	+7.1%	✗ Miss

💰 10. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)

SP (25)

€5m

No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)

SP (7)

€1m

No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)

SP (7)

€2m

No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)

SP (11)

€2m

No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 11. Games History

Head-to-head

Metal Kharkiv vs Probiy Horodenka · H/A from MK

Date	H/A	Game	Score
22/03/26	A	Probiy Horodenka Vs MK	1-2
30/08/25	H	MK Vs Probiy Horodenka	1-1

Metal Kharkiv

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result

Date	H/A	Game	Score
26/07/26	A	Kulykiv Vs MK	2-1
01/06/26	A	Chornomorets Vs MK	1-0
26/05/26	A	Chernihiv Vs MK	1-2
23/05/26	H	MK Vs UCSA	2-0
17/05/26	A	Vorskla Poltava Vs MK	1-1
09/05/26	H	MK Vs Podillya Khmelnytskyi	3-0
02/05/26	A	Nyva Ternopil Vs MK	2-0
25/04/26	H	MK Vs Yarud Mariupol'	1-1
17/04/26	H	MK Vs Bukovyna	1-2
13/04/26	A	Livyi Bereh Vs MK	3-0

Probiy Horodenka

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result

Date	H/A	Game	Score
26/07/26	H	PH Vs Inhulets	2-2
01/06/26	H	PH Vs Prykarpattia	0-3
23/05/26	A	Viktoriya Mykolaivka Vs PH	0-1
17/05/26	A	Yarud Mariupol' Vs PH	0-0
10/05/26	H	PH Vs Ahrobiznes Volochysk	1-0
03/05/26	A	Inhulets Vs PH	3-1
25/04/26	H	PH Vs Metalurh Zaporizhya	3-1
18/04/26	A	Chornomorets Vs PH	1-0
12/04/26	H	PH Vs UCSA	1-0
08/04/26	A	Vorskla Poltava Vs PH	0-2

📊 12. Overall Statistics

Metal Kharkiv

Ukraine: Persha Liga

Recent: 3 Wins / 2 Draws / 5 Losses

Form	Results	PPG
Overall	DWWLL	1.32
Home	WLDWW	1.44
Away	LDWLL	1.20

Stats	Overall	Home	Away
Win %	36%	40%	32%
AVG goals	2.24	2.04	2.44
Over 1.5 %	72%	68%	76%
Over 2.5 %	44%	36%	52%
Over 3.5 %	8%	4%	12%
Scored	1.16	1.16	1.16
Conceded	1.08	0.88	1.28
BTTS	46%	44%	48%
Clean Sheet	26%	32%	20%
Corners	-	-	-
Cards	-	-	-

Probiy Horodenka

Ukraine: Persha Liga

Recent: 5 Wins / 2 Draws / 3 Losses

Form	Results	PPG
Overall	WDWLD	1.19
Home	WWWLD	1.25
Away	WLLDW	1.13

Stats	Overall	Home	Away
Win %	32%	38%	27%
AVG goals	2.26	2.62	1.87
Over 1.5 %	61%	69%	53%
Over 2.5 %	42%	50%	33%
Over 3.5 %	23%	25%	20%
Scored	1.00	1.19	0.80
Conceded	1.26	1.44	1.07
BTTS	35%	38%	33%
Clean Sheet	39%	31%	47%
Corners	-	-	-
Cards	-	-	-

🏆 13. League Table

Record						Goals							Props / game						Squad value €m				Strengths
Rank	Team	MP	Pts	Win%	PPG	GF	GA	GD	G/G	O1.5	O2.5	O3.5	Cor	Cor O%	Crd	Crd O%	Fls	Fls O%	Tot	Att	Mid	Def	Att/g	Def/g	Poss%
1	Viktoriya Mykolaivka	4	12	100%	3.0	6	1	+5	1.8	50%	25%	0%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.5	0.2	-
2	SK Poltava	4	8	50%	2.0	7	1	+6	2.0	75%	50%	0%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	5	1	2	2	1.8	0.2	-
3	Oleksandria	4	8	50%	2.0	10	5	+5	3.8	100%	50%	25%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	2.5	1.2	-
4	Kulykiv	4	7	50%	1.8	6	5	+1	2.8	100%	75%	0%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.5	1.2	-
5	Ahrobiznes Volochysk	4	7	50%	1.8	4	4	+0	2.0	75%	50%	0%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.0	1.0	-
6	UCSA	4	6	25%	1.5	7	6	+1	3.2	50%	50%	50%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.8	1.5	-
7	Metal Kharkiv	4	6	50%	1.5	5	5	+0	2.5	75%	50%	25%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.2	1.2	-
8	Nyva Ternopil	4	5	25%	1.2	4	4	+0	2.0	75%	25%	0%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.0	1.0	-
9	Prykarpattia	4	4	25%	1.0	6	5	+1	2.8	75%	75%	25%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.5	1.2	-
10	Chernihiv	4	4	0%	1.0	5	5	+0	2.5	100%	25%	25%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.2	1.2	-
11	Inhulets	4	4	25%	1.0	5	8	-3	3.2	100%	100%	25%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.2	2.0	-
12	Lokomotiv Kyiv	4	3	0%	0.8	3	4	-1	1.8	50%	25%	25%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	0.8	1.0	-
13	Yarud Mariupol'	4	3	25%	0.8	3	7	-4	2.5	75%	50%	25%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	0.8	1.8	-
14	Kolos Kovalivka II	4	3	25%	0.8	3	7	-4	2.5	75%	50%	25%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	0.8	1.8	-
15	Polissya II	4	2	0%	0.5	5	7	-2	3.0	75%	75%	50%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.2	1.8	-
16	Probiy Horodenka	4	2	0%	0.5	4	9	-5	3.2	100%	75%	50%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.0	2.2	-

Ukraine: Persha Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Ukraine: Persha Liga stats & trends →

← all matches

Metal Kharkiv vs Probiy Horodenka Result & Analysis

🎯 1. Model Analysis

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Metal Kharkiv

Probiy Horodenka

Total goals distribution

Correct score

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

⚔️ Attack

🛡️ Defense

⏱️ Possession

🎲 4. Props Analysis

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

🔢 6. Odd / Even

🥅 7. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 8. Handicap

🔥 9. Top picks for this game

💰 10. Squad value

💰 Total value

⚔️ Attack

🧠 Midfield

🛡️ Defence

🤝 11. Games History

Head-to-head

Metal Kharkiv

Probiy Horodenka

📊 12. Overall Statistics

🏆 13. League Table

A Pro feature