The contest between Metal Kharkiv and Viktoriya Mykolaivka is finely balanced, with the model favouring a home win. The odds are 36% for Metal Kharkiv, 31% for a draw and 33% for Viktoriya. The expected total of 2.3 goals points to a modestly low-scoring game, with the most likely total being two goals at 28%. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 14.6% chance. Metal Kharkiv, playing at home against an opponent of similar strength, averages 1.55 goals scored and 0.82 conceded, while Viktoriya, on the road, averages 1.2 goals scored and 1.4 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.7%), Under 6.5 (99.1%), Away under 3.5 goals (97.2%), Under 5.5 (97.0%), Home under 3.5 goals (96.8%), Under 4.5 (91.6%), Away under 2.5 goals (89.4%) and Home under 2.5 goals (88.5%). Metal Kharkiv’s recent draw and Viktoriya’s five-game winning streak add intrigue, but the prediction remains a narrow home advantage.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Metal Kharkiv win
35.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
31.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Viktoriya Mykolaivka win
33.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Metal Kharkiv
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
1.13
1.27
1.00
0.93
1.27
vs Stronger (9)
0.33
1.89
0.50
1.50
0.20
2.20
vs Similar (21)
1.43
0.81
1.55
0.82
1.30
0.80
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Viktoriya Mykolaivka) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Viktoriya Mykolaivka
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
1.07
1.64
0.79
1.19
1.31
vs Stronger (2)
1.50
2.00
1.50
2.00
-
-
vs Similar (26)
1.38
1.08
1.64
0.64
1.20
1.40
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
0.00
2.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Metal Kharkiv) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
68.4%
Under 1.5
31.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
40.5%
Under 2.5
59.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
20.2%
Under 3.5
79.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
48.1%
No
51.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.6%
0-0
11.3%
1-0
10.4%
0-1
10.0%
2-1
7.8%
1-2
7.5%
2-0
6.9%
0-2
6.4%
Metal Kharkiv goals ↓
Viktoriya Mykolaivka goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
11%
10.0%
6.4%
2.4%
0.7%
1
10%
15%
7.5%
2.8%
0.8%
2
6.9%
7.8%
4.4%
1.7%
0.5%
3
2.7%
3.0%
1.7%
0.6%
0.2%
4
0.8%
0.9%
0.5%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Metal Kharkiv goals (down), columns = Viktoriya Mykolaivka goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Viktoriya Mykolaivka
3.00
SK Poltava
2.20
Oleksandria
2.20
Kulykiv
2.00
Prykarpattia
1.40
Ahrobiznes Volochysk
1.40
Metal Kharkiv
1.40
Inhulets
1.40
Yarud Mariupol'
1.20
Nyva Ternopil
1.20
UCSA
1.20
Chernihiv
0.80
Kolos Kovalivka II
0.60
Lokomotiv Kyiv
0.60
Polissya II
0.40
Probiy Horodenka
0.40
Metal Kharkiv is 1.60 points worse than Viktoriya Mykolaivka in terms of average points per game (1.40 vs 3.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Kulykiv
2.20
Oleksandria
2.20
Viktoriya Mykolaivka
1.80
Prykarpattia
1.60
SK Poltava
1.60
UCSA
1.60
Inhulets
1.40
Yarud Mariupol'
1.20
Polissya II
1.20
Metal Kharkiv
1.20
Chernihiv
1.00
Ahrobiznes Volochysk
1.00
Nyva Ternopil
1.00
Probiy Horodenka
0.80
Lokomotiv Kyiv
0.80
Kolos Kovalivka II
0.60
Metal Kharkiv is 0.60 goals worse than Viktoriya Mykolaivka in terms of goals scored per game (1.20 vs 1.80).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
SK Poltava
0.20
Viktoriya Mykolaivka
0.20
Oleksandria
1.00
Nyva Ternopil
1.00
Chernihiv
1.20
Prykarpattia
1.20
Kulykiv
1.20
Metal Kharkiv
1.20
Lokomotiv Kyiv
1.40
Kolos Kovalivka II
1.60
Yarud Mariupol'
1.60
UCSA
1.60
Polissya II
1.80
Ahrobiznes Volochysk
1.80
Inhulets
1.80
Probiy Horodenka
2.40
Metal Kharkiv is 1.00 goals worse than Viktoriya Mykolaivka in terms of goals conceded per game (1.20 vs 0.20).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Metal Kharkiv or Draw
66.6%
Avg Implied -
36%
31%
33%
covers Metal Kharkiv + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Metal Kharkiv or Viktoriya Mykolaivka
69.0%
Avg Implied -
36%
31%
33%
covers Metal Kharkiv + Viktoriya Mykolaivka
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Viktoriya Mykolaivka
64.4%
Avg Implied -
36%
31%
33%
covers Draw + Viktoriya Mykolaivka
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Metal Kharkiv over/under 0.5
Over
69.1%
Under
30.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Metal Kharkiv over/under 1.5
Over
32.8%
Under
67.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Metal Kharkiv over/under 2.5
Over
11.5%
Under
88.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Metal Kharkiv over/under 3.5
Over
3.2%
Under
96.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Viktoriya Mykolaivka over/under 0.5
Over
67.7%
Under
32.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Viktoriya Mykolaivka over/under 1.5
Over
31.2%
Under
68.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Viktoriya Mykolaivka over/under 2.5
Over
10.6%
Under
89.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Viktoriya Mykolaivka over/under 3.5
Over
2.8%
Under
97.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Metal Kharkiv, so a minus line means Metal Kharkiv give that many goals of a start and Viktoriya Mykolaivka receive them. At -1, Metal Kharkiv must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Metal Kharkiv win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Metal Kharkiv)
Metal Kharkiv -2
5.0%
Draw -2
10.5%
Viktoriya Mykolaivka +2
84.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Metal Kharkiv)
Metal Kharkiv -1
15.5%
Draw -1
20.1%
Viktoriya Mykolaivka +1
64.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Metal Kharkiv)
Metal Kharkiv +1
66.6%
Draw +1
19.3%
Viktoriya Mykolaivka -1
14.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Metal Kharkiv)
Metal Kharkiv +2
85.9%
Draw +2
9.7%
Viktoriya Mykolaivka -2
4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Metal Kharkiv
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.53
0.47
0.27
0.40
0.80
vs Stronger (9)
0.11
0.89
0.25
0.50
0.00
1.20
vs Similar (21)
0.57
0.38
0.55
0.18
0.60
0.60
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Viktoriya Mykolaivka) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Viktoriya Mykolaivka
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.43
0.43
0.21
0.44
0.62
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.50
-
-
vs Similar (26)
0.46
0.46
0.45
0.18
0.47
0.67
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
63% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Metal Kharkiv) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Metal Kharkiv over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Metal Kharkiv over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Metal Kharkiv over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Viktoriya Mykolaivka over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Viktoriya Mykolaivka over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Viktoriya Mykolaivka over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Metal Kharkiv
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.60
0.80
0.73
0.53
0.47
vs Stronger (9)
0.22
1.00
0.25
1.00
0.20
1.00
vs Similar (21)
0.86
0.43
1.00
0.64
0.70
0.20
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Viktoriya Mykolaivka) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Viktoriya Mykolaivka
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.63
1.21
0.57
0.75
0.69
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
1.50
1.00
1.50
-
-
vs Similar (26)
0.92
0.62
1.18
0.45
0.73
0.73
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
0.00
2.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
63% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Metal Kharkiv) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Metal Kharkiv over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Metal Kharkiv over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Metal Kharkiv over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Viktoriya Mykolaivka over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Viktoriya Mykolaivka over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Viktoriya Mykolaivka over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
97.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
97.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
96.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
91.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
89.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
88.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
85.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
84.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
79.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OLE (25)
€8m
SP (22)
€4m
YM (21)
€3m
NT (23)
€3m
MK (17)
€3m
UCS (23)
€2m
AV (18)
€2m
CHE (22)
€2m
VM (19)
€2m
PRY (18)
€2m
PH (20)
€1m
INH (15)
€1m
PI (5)
€1m
KKI (3)
€0m
LK (7)
€0m
Metal Kharkiv and Viktoriya Mykolaivka have a similar squad value (both €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OLE (10)
€3m
YM (6)
€1m
SP (5)
€1m
UCS (8)
€1m
NT (9)
€1m
VM (5)
€1m
PRY (6)
€1m
PH (11)
€1m
PI (2)
€0m
MK (4)
€0m
AV (3)
€0m
CHE (4)
€0m
INH (6)
€0m
KKI (1)
€0m
LK (3)
€0m
Metal Kharkiv and Viktoriya Mykolaivka have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
YM (7)
€1m
OLE (4)
€1m
CHE (8)
€1m
SP (7)
€1m
NT (5)
€1m
VM (8)
€1m
AV (4)
€1m
PRY (6)
€1m
MK (5)
€1m
UCS (5)
€1m
PI (1)
€0m
PH (3)
€0m
INH (5)
€0m
KKI (1)
€0m
LK (0)
€0m
Metal Kharkiv and Viktoriya Mykolaivka have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OLE (11)
€3m
SP (10)
€2m
MK (8)
€2m
AV (11)
€1m
NT (9)
€1m
UCS (10)
€1m
CHE (10)
€1m
INH (4)
€1m
PRY (6)
€1m
YM (8)
€1m
VM (6)
€1m
PH (6)
€0m
PI (2)
€0m
LK (4)
€0m
KKI (1)
€0m
Metal Kharkiv's defence is €1m more valuable than Viktoriya Mykolaivka's (€2m vs €1m).
Ukraine: Persha Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Ukraine: Persha Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
SK Poltava
Oleksandria
Kulykiv
Prykarpattia
Inhulets
Ahrobiznes Volochysk
UCSA
Nyva Ternopil
Yarud Mariupol'
Chernihiv
Lokomotiv Kyiv
Kolos Kovalivka II
Polissya II
Probiy Horodenka