Metalac GM’s recent form shows a shaky start with two straight defeats, while Dubočica comes off a win and has been more prolific away. The model projects a high-scoring encounter, with an expected 3.5 goals and a 22% chance of exactly three goals. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 10.4% probability, and the model favours an away win. Home win odds stand at 37%, a draw at 24%, and an away win at 39%. Metalac averages 1.43 goals scored and 1.5 conceded at home against similar opposition, whereas Dubočica averages 1.08 scored and 2.17 conceded on the road against similar teams. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (97.5%), Under 6.5 (93.8%), Home under 3.5 goals (90.7%), Away under 3.5 goals (89.9%), Over 1.5 (86.8%), Under 5.5 (86.4%), Away over 0.5 goals (82.6%) and Home over 0.5 goals (81.7%).
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Metalac GM win
36.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
24.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Dubočica win
39.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Metalac GM
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
1.13
1.47
1.40
0.73
0.87
vs Stronger (2)
1.50
0.50
2.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (28)
1.07
1.18
1.43
1.50
0.71
0.86
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (-0pp vs league)
This opponent (Dubočica) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dubočica
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
1.63
1.07
1.00
1.19
2.19
vs Stronger (5)
1.40
2.00
1.00
1.00
1.50
2.25
vs Similar (25)
1.08
1.56
1.08
1.00
1.08
2.17
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Metalac GM) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
86.8%
Under 1.5
13.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
67.0%
Under 2.5
33.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
45.3%
Under 3.5
54.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
68.5%
No
31.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.4%
1-2
8.3%
2-1
8.0%
2-2
7.0%
0-2
4.9%
1-3
4.9%
0-1
4.6%
2-0
4.5%
Metalac GM goals ↓
Dubočica goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.1%
4.6%
4.9%
2.9%
1.3%
1
4.4%
10%
8.3%
4.9%
2.1%
2
4.5%
8.0%
7.0%
4.1%
1.8%
3
2.6%
4.5%
4.0%
2.3%
1.0%
4
1.1%
1.9%
1.7%
1.0%
0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Metalac GM goals (down), columns = Dubočica goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Borac Cacak
2.50
TSC Backa Topola
2.00
OFK Vršac
2.00
Semendrija 1924
2.00
Javor
1.83
Napredak
1.67
Dubočica
1.67
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV
1.50
Loznica
1.17
FK Vozdovac
1.17
Teleoptik
0.83
OFK Bor 1919
0.83
Naftagas
0.67
Jedinstvo Ub
0.67
Metalac GM
0.67
Grafičar
0.67
Metalac GM is 1.00 points worse than Dubočica in terms of average points per game (0.67 vs 1.67).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Javor
2.50
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV
2.33
Borac Cacak
2.00
Semendrija 1924
1.83
TSC Backa Topola
1.67
OFK Vršac
1.50
Dubočica
1.50
Teleoptik
1.33
Loznica
1.33
Naftagas
1.00
Jedinstvo Ub
1.00
Napredak
1.00
Metalac GM
1.00
Grafičar
1.00
OFK Bor 1919
0.83
FK Vozdovac
0.83
Metalac GM is 0.50 goals worse than Dubočica in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 1.50).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
OFK Vršac
1.00
Javor
1.00
FK Vozdovac
1.00
Semendrija 1924
1.00
TSC Backa Topola
1.17
Loznica
1.17
Napredak
1.17
Dubočica
1.17
Borac Cacak
1.17
Naftagas
1.50
Jedinstvo Ub
1.83
OFK Bor 1919
1.83
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV
1.83
Metalac GM
1.83
Grafičar
1.83
Teleoptik
2.17
Metalac GM is 0.67 goals worse than Dubočica in terms of goals conceded per game (1.83 vs 1.17).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Metalac GM or Draw
60.8%
Avg Implied -
36%
24%
39%
covers Metalac GM + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Metalac GM or Dubočica
75.7%
Avg Implied -
36%
24%
39%
covers Metalac GM + Dubočica
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Dubočica
63.6%
Avg Implied -
36%
24%
39%
covers Draw + Dubočica
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Metalac GM over/under 0.5
Over
81.6%
Under
18.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Metalac GM over/under 1.5
Over
50.4%
Under
49.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Metalac GM over/under 2.5
Over
24.0%
Under
76.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Metalac GM over/under 3.5
Over
9.2%
Under
90.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dubočica over/under 0.5
Over
82.8%
Under
17.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dubočica over/under 1.5
Over
52.5%
Under
47.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dubočica over/under 2.5
Over
25.8%
Under
74.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dubočica over/under 3.5
Over
10.2%
Under
89.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Metalac GM, so a minus line means Metalac GM give that many goals of a start and Dubočica receive them. At -1, Metalac GM must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Metalac GM win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Metalac GM)
Metalac GM -2
7.8%
Draw -2
11.1%
Dubočica +2
81.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Metalac GM)
Metalac GM -1
18.9%
Draw -1
17.5%
Dubočica +1
63.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Metalac GM)
Metalac GM +1
60.8%
Draw +1
18.2%
Dubočica -1
21.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Metalac GM)
Metalac GM +2
79.0%
Draw +2
12.0%
Dubočica -2
9.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Metalac GM
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.57
0.47
0.67
0.27
0.47
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
0.50
1.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (28)
0.32
0.57
0.43
0.71
0.21
0.43
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Dubočica) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dubočica
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.40
0.79
0.21
0.56
0.56
vs Stronger (5)
0.40
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.50
1.25
vs Similar (25)
0.72
0.28
0.85
0.23
0.58
0.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
70% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Metalac GM) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
74.3%
Under 0.5
25.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
37.7%
Under 1.5
62.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
16.6%
Under 2.5
83.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Metalac GM over/under 0.5 HT
Over
47.3%
Under
52.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Metalac GM over/under 1.5 HT
Over
12.1%
Under
87.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Metalac GM over/under 2.5 HT
Over
2.1%
Under
97.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dubočica over/under 0.5 HT
Over
44.8%
Under
55.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dubočica over/under 1.5 HT
Over
10.8%
Under
89.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dubočica over/under 2.5 HT
Over
4.7%
Under
95.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Metalac GM
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.57
1.00
0.73
0.47
0.40
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (28)
0.75
0.61
1.00
0.79
0.50
0.43
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
67% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Dubočica) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dubočica
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
1.23
0.29
0.79
0.62
1.62
vs Stronger (5)
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (25)
0.36
1.28
0.23
0.77
0.50
1.83
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (Metalac GM) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
82.1%
Under 0.5
17.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
45.2%
Under 1.5
54.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
22.5%
Under 2.5
77.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Metalac GM over/under 0.5 2H
Over
51.7%
Under
48.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Metalac GM over/under 1.5 2H
Over
20.1%
Under
79.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Metalac GM over/under 2.5 2H
Over
4.0%
Under
96.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dubočica over/under 0.5 2H
Over
53.3%
Under
46.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dubočica over/under 1.5 2H
Over
17.2%
Under
82.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dubočica over/under 2.5 2H
Over
4.1%
Under
95.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
97.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
96.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
95.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
95.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
93.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
90.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
89.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
89.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
87.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
86.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
86.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
83.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
82.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
82.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
82.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
81.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
81.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
79.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
79.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
77.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
76.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
75.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 HT goals
74.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
74.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
73.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Serbia: Prva Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Serbia: Prva Liga stats & trends →