Metalac GM’s defensive record at home is impeccable, conceding none in recent matches, yet their recent form shows a dip after a loss to FK Vozdovac. Grafićar, playing away against a weaker side, has struggled defensively, conceding over a goal per game, and also came off a defeat to Naftagas. The model favours an away win, with a 36 % chance, while both a home win and a draw sit at 32 % each. The expected total goals hover at 2.2, with the most likely total being 2 goals at 28 %. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 14.7 % probability. Metalac GM’s average home scoring of 2.0 goals contrasts with Grafićar’s 0.64 away scoring, and their respective conceding figures (0.0 vs 1.09) underline a tight, low-scoring encounter. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.8 %), Under 6.5 (99.2 %), Home under 3.5 goals (97.7 %), Under 5.5 (97.5 %), Away under 3.5 goals (97.1 %), Under 4.5 (92.6 %), Home under 2.5 goals (90.8 %), and Away under 2.5 goals (89.1 %).
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Metalac GM win
28.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
28.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Grafičar win
42.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Metalac GM
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
1.13
1.47
1.40
0.73
0.87
vs Stronger (2)
1.50
0.50
2.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (28)
1.07
1.18
1.43
1.50
0.71
0.86
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (-0pp vs league)
This opponent (Grafičar) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Grafičar
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
1.00
1.50
1.00
0.57
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
0.93
0.93
1.38
0.88
0.33
1.00
vs Weaker (16)
1.19
1.06
1.62
1.12
0.75
1.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Metalac GM) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
73.6%
Under 1.5
26.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
47.0%
Under 2.5
53.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
25.4%
Under 3.5
74.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
52.6%
No
47.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.8%
0-1
9.9%
0-0
9.0%
1-2
8.9%
0-2
7.9%
1-0
7.5%
2-1
7.0%
2-2
5.0%
Metalac GM goals ↓
Grafičar goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.0%
9.9%
7.9%
3.8%
1.3%
1
7.5%
14%
8.9%
4.2%
1.5%
2
4.9%
7.0%
5.0%
2.4%
0.9%
3
1.9%
2.6%
1.9%
0.9%
0.3%
4
0.5%
0.7%
0.5%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Metalac GM goals (down), columns = Grafičar goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Borac Cacak
2.50
TSC Backa Topola
2.00
OFK Vršac
2.00
Semendrija 1924
2.00
Javor
1.83
Napredak
1.67
Dubočica
1.67
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV
1.50
Loznica
1.17
FK Vozdovac
1.17
Teleoptik
0.83
OFK Bor 1919
0.83
Naftagas
0.67
Jedinstvo Ub
0.67
Metalac GM
0.67
Grafičar
0.67
Metalac GM and Grafičar are level in average points per game (both 0.67).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Javor
2.50
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV
2.33
Borac Cacak
2.00
Semendrija 1924
1.83
TSC Backa Topola
1.67
OFK Vršac
1.50
Dubočica
1.50
Teleoptik
1.33
Loznica
1.33
Naftagas
1.00
Jedinstvo Ub
1.00
Napredak
1.00
Metalac GM
1.00
Grafičar
1.00
OFK Bor 1919
0.83
FK Vozdovac
0.83
Metalac GM and Grafičar are level in goals scored per game (both 1.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
OFK Vršac
1.00
Javor
1.00
FK Vozdovac
1.00
Semendrija 1924
1.00
TSC Backa Topola
1.17
Loznica
1.17
Napredak
1.17
Dubočica
1.17
Borac Cacak
1.17
Naftagas
1.50
Jedinstvo Ub
1.83
OFK Bor 1919
1.83
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV
1.83
Metalac GM
1.83
Grafičar
1.83
Teleoptik
2.17
Metalac GM and Grafičar are level in goals conceded per game (both 1.83).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Metalac GM or Draw
57.3%
Avg Implied -
29%
29%
43%
covers Metalac GM + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Metalac GM or Grafičar
71.2%
Avg Implied -
29%
29%
43%
covers Metalac GM + Grafičar
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Grafičar
71.5%
Avg Implied -
29%
29%
43%
covers Draw + Grafičar
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Metalac GM over/under 0.5
Over
67.6%
Under
32.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Metalac GM over/under 1.5
Over
31.0%
Under
69.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Metalac GM over/under 2.5
Over
10.5%
Under
89.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Metalac GM over/under 3.5
Over
2.8%
Under
97.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grafičar over/under 0.5
Over
76.0%
Under
24.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grafičar over/under 1.5
Over
41.7%
Under
58.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grafičar over/under 2.5
Over
17.3%
Under
82.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grafičar over/under 3.5
Over
5.7%
Under
94.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Metalac GM, so a minus line means Metalac GM give that many goals of a start and Grafičar receive them. At -1, Metalac GM must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Metalac GM win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Metalac GM)
Metalac GM -2
3.6%
Draw -2
8.2%
Grafičar +2
88.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Metalac GM)
Metalac GM -1
11.8%
Draw -1
16.7%
Grafičar +1
71.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Metalac GM)
Metalac GM +1
57.3%
Draw +1
21.5%
Grafičar -1
21.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Metalac GM)
Metalac GM +2
78.8%
Draw +2
13.1%
Grafičar -2
8.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Metalac GM
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.57
0.47
0.67
0.27
0.47
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
0.50
1.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (28)
0.32
0.57
0.43
0.71
0.21
0.43
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Grafičar) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Grafičar
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.37
0.56
0.38
0.21
0.36
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
0.36
0.29
0.50
0.12
0.17
0.50
vs Weaker (16)
0.44
0.44
0.62
0.62
0.25
0.25
Clean sheet %
67% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Metalac GM) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Metalac GM over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Metalac GM over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Metalac GM over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grafičar over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grafičar over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grafičar over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Metalac GM
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.57
1.00
0.73
0.47
0.40
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (28)
0.75
0.61
1.00
0.79
0.50
0.43
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
67% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Grafičar) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Grafičar
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.63
0.94
0.62
0.36
0.64
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
0.57
0.64
0.88
0.75
0.17
0.50
vs Weaker (16)
0.75
0.62
1.00
0.50
0.50
0.75
Clean sheet %
57% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Metalac GM) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Metalac GM over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Metalac GM over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Metalac GM over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grafičar over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grafičar over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grafičar over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
97.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
95.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
94.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
89.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
88.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
88.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
82.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
78.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
76.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
74.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
73.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
71.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
71.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
71.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Serbia: Prva Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Serbia: Prva Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Borac Cacak
Semendrija 1924
TSC Backa Topola
OFK Vršac
Javor
Dubočica
Napredak
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV
Loznica
FK Vozdovac
Teleoptik
OFK Bor 1919
Naftagas
Jedinstvo Ub