Metalac GM’s home form shows a modest 1.29 goals per game, conceding 1.21, while Loznica, on the road, averages 0.92 scored and 0.77 conceded against similar opposition. The model projects a tight affair with an expected 2.2 goals, most likely a 1-1 draw, and a 28% chance of exactly two goals. The predicted result favours an away win, with 37% probability for Loznica, 32% for a draw, and 31% for Metalac GM. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.8%), Under 6.5 (99.3%), Home under 2.5 HT goals (98.8%), Home under 2.5 2H goals (98.3%), Home under 3.5 goals (98.0%), Under 5.5 (97.6%), Away under 3.5 goals (97.0%), and Away under 2.5 2H goals (94.7%). Metalac GM is coming off a defeat, while Loznica follows a draw, setting the stage for a low-scoring, defensive showdown.
Results analysis
Metalac GM’s recent form, after two straight defeats, could not stop Loznica’s momentum, who were coming off a win. The match finished 2-4, an away victory that matched the model’s favourite pick, which carried a 37% probability. The predicted total of 2.2 goals was far below the actual six-goal tally. The model’s selections were largely accurate: Under 7.5 (99.8%) hit, Under 6.5 (99.3%) hit, Home under 2.5 HT goals (98.8%) hit, Home under 2.5 2H goals (98.3%) hit, Home under 3.5 goals (98.0%) hit. However, Under 5.5 (97.6%) missed, Away under 3.5 goals (97.0%) missed, and Away under 2.5 2H goals (94.7%) missed.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Metalac GM win✗ Miss
30.7%
Avg Implied 37.4% · @ 2.42
Edge
-6.8%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
2.46
Superbet
2.45
Betfair
2.40
Betano
2.40
1xBet
2.40
Draw✗ Miss
31.9%
Avg Implied 31.3% · @ 2.88
Edge
+0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
2.90
Betfair
2.90
1xBet
2.90
Bet365
2.88
Superbet
2.87
Loznica win✓ Hit
37.4%
Avg Implied 31.2% · @ 2.90
Edge
+6.2%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
3.04
Betano
2.90
Bet365
2.88
Betfair
2.88
Dafabet
2.85
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Metalac GM
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
1.00
1.33
1.13
0.73
0.87
vs Stronger (2)
1.50
0.50
2.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (28)
1.00
1.04
1.29
1.21
0.71
0.86
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Loznica) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Loznica
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.70
1.06
0.56
1.00
0.86
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (28)
1.11
0.75
1.21
0.64
1.00
0.86
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Metalac GM) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
65.2%
@ 1.49+3.5%
Under 1.5
34.8%
@ 2.40-3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.54
Betano
1.52
1xBet
1.45
Betfair
1.45
Under
1xBet
2.55
Betfair
2.55
Superbet
2.32
Betano
2.20
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
37.0%
@ 2.59+1.3%
Under 2.5
63.0%
@ 1.44-1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.65
Bet365
2.62
Betfair
2.55
1xBet
2.55
Under
1xBet
1.45
Betfair
1.45
Bet365
1.44
Superbet
1.43
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
17.5%
@ 5.18-0.4%
Under 3.5
82.5%
@ 1.13+0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
5.20
Betfair
5.20
Superbet
5.15
Under
Superbet
1.13
1xBet
1.13
Betfair
1.13
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
45.1%
@ 2.16+2.0%
No
54.9%
@ 1.63-2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Superbet
2.20
1xBet
2.18
Betfair
2.10
No
Betfair
1.65
1xBet
1.65
Superbet
1.60
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.7%@ 5.76+7.4%
0-0
12.7%@ 6.21+6.0%
0-1
11.8%@ 6.55+5.4%
1-0
10.3%@ 5.79+3.0%
1-2
7.7%@ 11.00+3.9%
0-2
7.6%@ 12.00+4.1%
2-1
6.8%@ 9.82+2.6%
2-0
5.9%@ 9.55+1.5%
Metalac GM goals ↓
Loznica goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
13%
12%
7.6%
2.9%
0.8%
1
10%
15%
7.7%
3.0%
0.9%
2
5.9%
6.8%
3.9%
1.5%
0.4%
3
2.0%
2.3%
1.3%
0.5%
0.1%
4
0.5%
0.6%
0.3%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Metalac GM goals (down), columns = Loznica goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Borac Cacak
2.50
TSC Backa Topola
2.00
OFK Vršac
2.00
Semendrija 1924
2.00
Javor
1.83
Napredak
1.67
Dubočica
1.67
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV
1.50
Loznica
1.17
FK Vozdovac
1.17
Teleoptik
0.83
OFK Bor 1919
0.83
Naftagas
0.67
Jedinstvo Ub
0.67
Metalac GM
0.67
Grafičar
0.67
Metalac GM is 0.50 points worse than Loznica in terms of average points per game (0.67 vs 1.17).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Javor
2.50
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV
2.33
Borac Cacak
2.00
Semendrija 1924
1.83
TSC Backa Topola
1.67
OFK Vršac
1.50
Dubočica
1.50
Teleoptik
1.33
Loznica
1.33
Naftagas
1.00
Jedinstvo Ub
1.00
Napredak
1.00
Metalac GM
1.00
Grafičar
1.00
OFK Bor 1919
0.83
FK Vozdovac
0.83
Metalac GM is 0.33 goals worse than Loznica in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 1.33).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
OFK Vršac
1.00
Javor
1.00
FK Vozdovac
1.00
Semendrija 1924
1.00
TSC Backa Topola
1.17
Loznica
1.17
Napredak
1.17
Dubočica
1.17
Borac Cacak
1.17
Naftagas
1.50
Jedinstvo Ub
1.83
OFK Bor 1919
1.83
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV
1.83
Metalac GM
1.83
Grafičar
1.83
Teleoptik
2.17
Metalac GM is 0.67 goals worse than Loznica in terms of goals conceded per game (1.83 vs 1.17).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Metalac GM or Draw✗ Miss
62.6%
Avg Implied 68.8% · @ 1.34
Edge
-6.3%
31%
32%
37%
covers Metalac GM + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
1.36
Betano
1.34
1xBet
1.34
Bet365
1.33
Superbet
1.32
Metalac GM or Loznica✓ Hit
68.1%
Avg Implied 68.7% · @ 1.34
Edge
-0.7%
31%
32%
37%
covers Metalac GM + Loznica
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
1.36
1xBet
1.36
Betano
1.34
Bet365
1.33
Superbet
1.31
Draw or Loznica✓ Hit
69.3%
Avg Implied 62.4% · @ 1.48
Edge
+6.9%
31%
32%
37%
covers Draw + Loznica
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.51
Bet365
1.50
Betfair
1.50
Betano
1.45
Superbet
1.42
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Metalac GM over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
63.9%
@ 1.41-1.1%
Under
36.1%
@ 2.62+1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.42
1xBet
1.40
Under
Superbet
2.65
1xBet
2.59
Metalac GM over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
27.2%
@ 2.94-4.1%
Under
72.8%
@ 1.33+4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
3.00
1xBet
2.87
Under
Superbet
1.34
1xBet
1.33
Metalac GM over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
8.4%
@ 7.12-4.6%
Under
91.6%
@ 1.06+4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
7.40
1xBet
6.85
Under
1xBet
1.07
Superbet
1.06
Metalac GM over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
2.0%
Under
98.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Loznica over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
68.4%
@ 1.50+7.1%
Under
31.6%
@ 2.38-7.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.51
1xBet
1.48
Under
Superbet
2.40
1xBet
2.35
Loznica over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
32.1%
@ 3.35+4.6%
Under
67.9%
@ 1.27-4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
3.40
1xBet
3.30
Under
1xBet
1.27
Superbet
1.27
Loznica over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
11.1%
@ 8.22-0.2%
Under
88.9%
@ 1.04+0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
8.60
1xBet
7.85
Under
1xBet
1.05
Superbet
1.04
Loznica over/under 3.5Actual: Over
Over
3.0%
Under
97.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Metalac GM, so a minus line means Metalac GM give that many goals of a start and Loznica receive them. At -1, Metalac GM must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Metalac GM win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Metalac GM)Actual: Loznica
Metalac GM -2
3.5%
Draw -2
8.6%
Loznica +2
87.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Metalac GM)Actual: Loznica
Metalac GM -1
12.1%
@ 5.50-3.8%
Draw -1
18.6%
@ 3.75-4.8%
Loznica +1
69.3%
@ 1.44+8.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
5.50
Draw
Betfair
3.75
Away
Betfair
1.44
Handicap +1 (Metalac GM)Actual: Loznica
Metalac GM +1
62.6%
Draw +1
21.2%
Loznica -1
16.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Metalac GM)Actual: Draw
Metalac GM +2
83.8%
Draw +2
11.0%
Loznica -2
5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Metalac GM
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.53
0.40
0.60
0.27
0.47
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
0.50
1.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (28)
0.29
0.54
0.36
0.64
0.21
0.43
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Loznica) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Loznica
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.5
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.17
0.50
0.12
0.43
0.21
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (28)
0.50
0.18
0.57
0.14
0.43
0.21
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
87% (+53pp vs league)
This opponent (Metalac GM) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
66.8%
@ 1.54+7.4%
Under 0.5
33.2%
@ 2.25-7.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.59
Betano
1.55
1xBet
1.52
Betfair
1.50
Under
Betfair
2.40
1xBet
2.36
Superbet
2.20
Betano
2.05
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
28.4%
@ 3.70+3.5%
Under 1.5
71.6%
@ 1.23-3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
3.80
Superbet
3.70
1xBet
3.60
Under
Superbet
1.23
1xBet
1.23
Betfair
1.22
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
10.9%
@ 10.00+1.6%
Under 2.5
89.1%
@ 1.02-1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
10.00
Superbet
10.00
Betfair
10.00
Under
Superbet
1.03
Betfair
1.02
1xBet
1.01
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Metalac GM over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
37.0%
@ 2.37-1.7%
Under
63.0%
@ 1.50+1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.40
1xBet
2.34
Under
Superbet
1.51
1xBet
1.49
Metalac GM over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
7.9%
@ 7.30-4.8%
Under
92.1%
@ 1.06+4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
7.30
Under
1xBet
1.06
Metalac GM over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.2%
@ 11.00-7.2%
Under
98.8%
@ 1.01+7.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
11.00
Under
1xBet
1.01
Loznica over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
44.1%
@ 2.56+8.3%
Under
55.9%
@ 1.43-8.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.60
1xBet
2.52
Under
Superbet
1.44
1xBet
1.42
Loznica over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
12.8%
@ 8.45+1.9%
Under
87.2%
@ 1.04-1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
8.45
Under
1xBet
1.04
Loznica over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
5.7%
@ 11.00-2.8%
Under
94.3%
@ 1.01+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
11.00
Under
1xBet
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Metalac GM
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.47
0.93
0.53
0.47
0.40
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (28)
0.71
0.50
0.93
0.57
0.50
0.43
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
70% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Loznica) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Loznica
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.53
0.56
0.44
0.57
0.64
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (28)
0.61
0.57
0.64
0.50
0.57
0.64
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
67% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Metalac GM) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
77.3%
@ 1.38+10.0%
Under 0.5
22.7%
@ 2.83-10.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.38
1xBet
1.37
Under
1xBet
2.85
Superbet
2.80
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
42.0%
@ 2.73+8.3%
Under 1.5
58.0%
@ 1.39-8.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.77
1xBet
2.70
Under
Superbet
1.39
1xBet
1.39
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
16.4%
@ 6.75+2.7%
Under 2.5
83.6%
@ 1.07-2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
6.80
Superbet
6.70
Under
Superbet
1.08
1xBet
1.06
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Metalac GM over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
45.6%
@ 2.02-0.2%
Under
54.4%
@ 1.71+0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.02
1xBet
2.01
Under
1xBet
1.71
Superbet
1.70
Metalac GM over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
12.0%
@ 5.85-3.8%
Under
88.0%
@ 1.10+3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
5.85
Under
1xBet
1.10
Metalac GM over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
1.7%
@ 11.00-6.7%
Under
98.3%
@ 1.01+6.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
11.00
Under
1xBet
1.01
Loznica over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
54.9%
@ 2.15+12.0%
Under
45.1%
@ 1.61-12.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.17
1xBet
2.13
Under
Superbet
1.62
1xBet
1.61
Loznica over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
22.6%
@ 6.50+8.4%
Under
77.4%
@ 1.08-8.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
6.50
Under
1xBet
1.08
Loznica over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
5.3%
@ 11.00-3.1%
Under
94.7%
@ 1.01+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
11.00
Under
1xBet
1.01
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
99.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.8%
1.01
1xBet
1.01
-
-
-
-
+7.2%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
98.3%
1.01
1xBet
1.01
-
-
-
-
+6.7%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
98.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
97.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Away under 3.5 goals
97.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Away under 2.5 2H goals
94.7%
1.01
1xBet
1.01
-
-
-
-
+3.1%
✗ Miss
Away under 2.5 HT goals
94.3%
1.01
1xBet
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.8%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
93.0%
1.03
Superbet
1.03
1xBet
1.03
-
-
-
+2.8%
✗ Miss
Home under 1.5 HT goals
92.1%
1.06
1xBet
1.06
-
-
-
-
+4.8%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
91.6%
1.06
1xBet
1.07
Superbet
1.06
-
-
-
+4.6%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
89.1%
1.02
Superbet
1.03
Betfair
1.02
1xBet
1.01
-
-
-1.6%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
88.9%
1.04
1xBet
1.05
Superbet
1.04
-
-
-
+0.2%
✗ Miss
Home under 1.5 2H goals
88.0%
1.10
1xBet
1.10
-
-
-
-
+3.8%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
87.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
87.2%
1.04
1xBet
1.04
-
-
-
-
-1.9%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
83.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 2.5 2H goals
83.6%
1.07
Superbet
1.08
1xBet
1.06
-
-
-
-2.7%
✗ Miss
Under 3.5
82.5%
1.13
Superbet
1.13
1xBet
1.13
Betfair
1.13
-
-
+0.4%
✗ Miss
Away under 1.5 2H goals
77.4%
1.08
1xBet
1.08
-
-
-
-
-8.4%
✗ Miss
Over 0.5 2H goals
77.3%
1.38
Superbet
1.38
1xBet
1.37
-
-
-
+10.0%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 goals
72.8%
1.33
Superbet
1.34
1xBet
1.33
-
-
-
+4.1%
✗ Miss
Under 1.5 HT goals
71.6%
1.23
Superbet
1.23
1xBet
1.23
Betfair
1.22
-
-
-3.5%
✗ Miss
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Serbia: Prva Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Serbia: Prva Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Borac Cacak
Semendrija 1924
TSC Backa Topola
OFK Vršac
Javor
Dubočica
Napredak
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV
FK Vozdovac
Teleoptik
OFK Bor 1919
Naftagas
Jedinstvo Ub
Grafičar