This opponent (Lorient) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lorient
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
1.50
1.36
0.86
0.81
2.06
vs Stronger (6)
1.33
2.17
1.50
0.50
1.25
3.00
vs Similar (20)
0.90
1.40
1.11
0.89
0.73
1.82
vs Weaker (4)
1.50
1.00
2.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
17% (-11pp vs league)
This opponent (Metz) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
78.7%
Under 1.5
21.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
54.0%
@ 2.11+8.8%
Under 2.5
46.0%
@ 1.74-8.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
31.7%
Under 3.5
68.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
58.4%
No
41.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.9%
2-1
8.9%
1-2
7.8%
1-0
7.7%
0-0
7.0%
2-0
6.7%
0-1
6.6%
2-2
5.9%
Metz goals ↓
Lorient goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.0%
6.6%
5.1%
2.3%
0.8%
1
7.7%
13%
7.8%
3.4%
1.1%
2
6.7%
8.9%
5.9%
2.6%
0.9%
3
3.4%
4.5%
3.0%
1.3%
0.4%
4
1.3%
1.7%
1.1%
0.5%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Metz goals (down), columns = Lorient goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Paris Saint Germain
2.26
Marseille
1.87
Monaco
1.82
Nice
1.76
Rennes
1.74
Strasbourg
1.66
Lens
1.63
Lyon
1.63
Lille
1.45
Nantes
1.45
Stade Brestois 29
1.26
Reims
1.21
Montpellier
1.13
Angers
1.08
Estac Troyes
1.00
Clermont Foot
0.95
Lorient
0.95
Saint Etienne
0.84
Bordeaux
0.82
Metz
0.82
Metz is 0.13 points worse than Lorient in terms of average points per game (0.82 vs 0.95).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Paris Saint Germain
2.37
Rennes
2.16
Lyon
1.74
Monaco
1.71
Marseille
1.66
Lens
1.63
Strasbourg
1.58
Nantes
1.45
Nice
1.37
Bordeaux
1.37
Stade Brestois 29
1.29
Montpellier
1.29
Lille
1.26
Angers
1.16
Reims
1.13
Saint Etienne
1.11
Clermont Foot
1.00
Estac Troyes
0.97
Metz
0.92
Lorient
0.92
Metz and Lorient are level in goals scored per game (both 0.92).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Nice
0.95
Paris Saint Germain
0.95
Marseille
1.00
Rennes
1.05
Monaco
1.05
Strasbourg
1.13
Reims
1.16
Lille
1.26
Nantes
1.26
Lens
1.26
Lyon
1.34
Estac Troyes
1.39
Angers
1.45
Stade Brestois 29
1.50
Montpellier
1.61
Lorient
1.66
Clermont Foot
1.82
Metz
1.82
Saint Etienne
2.03
Bordeaux
2.39
Metz is 0.16 goals worse than Lorient in terms of goals conceded per game (1.82 vs 1.66).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Metz
For 4.1 · Against 6.9 · Total 11.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.4 · Against 1.8 · Total 4.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.0 · Against 11.5 · Total 24.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Lorient
For 4.3 · Against 5.2 · Total 9.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.3 · Against 1.8 · Total 3.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.4 · Against 11.2 · Total 22.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Metz
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.7
9.7
9.6
4.4
4.2
4.5
26.3
25.9
26.8
vs Stronger (19)
10.5
10.6
10.3
4.6
4.2
5.1
24.8
24.3
25.4
vs Similar (24)
9.4
9.9
8.9
4.3
4.5
4.2
27.3
27.3
27.3
vs Weaker (7)
8.4
7.0
10.3
3.7
3.5
4.0
27.1
26.2
28.3
% over line
52%
56%
48%
64%
56%
72%
90%
92%
88%
% under line
48%
44%
52%
36%
44%
28%
10%
8%
12%
This opponent (Lorient) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lorient
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.3
8.6
9.9
4.1
4.5
3.8
24.3
24.8
23.7
vs Stronger (13)
9.9
9.7
10.1
4.0
4.7
3.4
23.2
23.2
23.1
vs Similar (29)
8.6
7.5
9.5
4.1
4.4
3.9
24.2
24.8
23.8
vs Weaker (8)
10.6
10.0
11.7
4.1
4.4
3.7
26.1
26.8
25.0
% over line
46%
38%
54%
62%
71%
54%
72%
75%
69%
% under line
54%
62%
46%
38%
29%
46%
28%
25%
31%
This opponent (Metz) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Lyon
10.2
Montpellier
10.1
Lens
10.1
Saint Etienne
10.0
Bordeaux
10.0
Paris Saint Germain
9.9
Strasbourg
9.8
Nice
9.7
Marseille
9.7
Metz
9.7
Stade Brestois 29
9.6
Nantes
9.5
Lorient
9.3
Lille
9.2
Angers
9.2
Reims
9.2
Rennes
9.2
Estac Troyes
8.9
Clermont Foot
8.8
Monaco
8.5
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Lens
4.7
Monaco
4.6
Estac Troyes
4.5
Marseille
4.5
Lille
4.4
Metz
4.4
Montpellier
4.3
Nantes
4.2
Saint Etienne
4.2
Lorient
4.1
Reims
3.9
Lyon
3.9
Rennes
3.9
Angers
3.9
Bordeaux
3.8
Stade Brestois 29
3.8
Paris Saint Germain
3.8
Nice
3.8
Strasbourg
3.6
Clermont Foot
3.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Estac Troyes
28.2
Metz
26.3
Nantes
26.3
Saint Etienne
26.3
Monaco
25.8
Montpellier
25.2
Rennes
25.0
Angers
24.9
Lille
24.3
Strasbourg
24.3
Lens
24.3
Lorient
24.3
Bordeaux
24.1
Marseille
24.1
Clermont Foot
24.0
Lyon
23.9
Reims
23.9
Stade Brestois 29
23.6
Nice
23.5
Paris Saint Germain
22.6
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
50.1%
Under 9.5
49.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
58.5%
Under 3.5
41.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
65.8%
Under 21.5
34.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Metz
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.93
0.43
1.07
0.69
0.81
vs Stronger (13)
0.38
1.31
0.43
1.14
0.33
1.50
vs Similar (13)
0.69
0.62
0.40
1.00
0.88
0.38
vs Weaker (4)
0.75
0.75
0.50
1.00
1.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Lorient) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lorient
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.50
0.71
0.21
0.50
0.75
vs Stronger (6)
0.83
0.33
1.00
0.50
0.75
0.25
vs Similar (20)
0.50
0.60
0.56
0.11
0.45
1.00
vs Weaker (4)
0.75
0.25
1.00
0.33
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
63% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Metz) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Metz over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Metz over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Metz over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lorient over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lorient over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lorient over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Metz
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
1.10
0.50
1.14
0.56
1.06
vs Stronger (13)
0.38
1.31
0.57
1.29
0.17
1.33
vs Similar (13)
0.31
0.85
0.20
0.60
0.38
1.00
vs Weaker (4)
1.75
1.25
1.00
2.00
2.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
33% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Lorient) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lorient
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
1.00
0.64
0.64
0.31
1.31
vs Stronger (6)
0.50
1.83
0.50
0.00
0.50
2.75
vs Similar (20)
0.40
0.80
0.56
0.78
0.27
0.82
vs Weaker (4)
0.75
0.75
1.00
0.67
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Metz) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Metz over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Metz over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Metz over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lorient over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lorient over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lorient over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
79.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
78.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
77.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
77.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
73.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Metz · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Pape Moussa Fall50%
Giorgi Abuashvili25%
Nampalys Mendy0%
Jean Ruiz0%
Florian Miguel0%
Jessy Deminguet0%
Jonathan Fischer0%
Cristian Castro0%
Ibou Sane0%
Idris Mohamed0%
Believe Munongo0%
Hamza Kadamani0%
Nathan Mbala0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Idris Mohamed67%
Nampalys Mendy25%
Florian Miguel25%
Jessy Deminguet25%
Pape Moussa Fall25%
Jean Ruiz0%
Giorgi Abuashvili0%
Jonathan Fischer0%
Cristian Castro0%
Ibou Sane0%
Believe Munongo0%
Hamza Kadamani0%
Nathan Mbala0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Jessy Deminguet25%
Nampalys Mendy0%
Jean Ruiz0%
Florian Miguel0%
Giorgi Abuashvili0%
Jonathan Fischer0%
Cristian Castro0%
Ibou Sane0%
Pape Moussa Fall0%
Idris Mohamed0%
Believe Munongo0%
Hamza Kadamani0%
Nathan Mbala0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Pape Moussa Fall50%
Giorgi Abuashvili25%
Nampalys Mendy0%
Jean Ruiz0%
Florian Miguel0%
Jessy Deminguet0%
Jonathan Fischer0%
Cristian Castro0%
Ibou Sane0%
Idris Mohamed0%
Believe Munongo0%
Hamza Kadamani0%
Nathan Mbala0%
Lorient · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Ahmadou Bamba Dieng44%
Pablo Pagis28%
Aiyegun Tosin18%
Noah Cadiou13%
Jean-Victor Makengo11%
Mohamed Bamba11%
Sambou Soumano9%
Théo Le Bris6%
Karim Dermane6%
Arthur Avom Ebong6%
Arsène Kouassi6%
Panos Katseris6%
Igor Silva5%
Laurent Abergel3%
Yvon Mvogo0%
Bingourou Kamara0%
Montassar Talbi0%
Darlin Yongwa0%
Joel Mugisha Mvuka0%
Bamo Meïté0%
Nathaniel Adjei0%
Abdoulaye Faye0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Abdoulaye Faye42%
Laurent Abergel27%
Bamo Meïté21%
Panos Katseris17%
Darlin Yongwa16%
Ahmadou Bamba Dieng16%
Mohamed Bamba16%
Arsène Kouassi15%
Bingourou Kamara14%
Montassar Talbi13%
Arthur Avom Ebong12%
Noah Cadiou6%
Sambou Soumano6%
Karim Dermane6%
Jean-Victor Makengo6%
Igor Silva5%
Aiyegun Tosin4%
Pablo Pagis3%
Yvon Mvogo0%
Joel Mugisha Mvuka0%
Théo Le Bris0%
Nathaniel Adjei0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Arsène Kouassi18%
Pablo Pagis12%
Panos Katseris11%
Igor Silva11%
Mohamed Bamba11%
Bamo Meïté10%
Théo Le Bris9%
Sambou Soumano6%
Karim Dermane6%
Joel Mugisha Mvuka6%
Jean-Victor Makengo6%
Darlin Yongwa4%
Ahmadou Bamba Dieng4%
Noah Cadiou3%
Montassar Talbi3%
Arthur Avom Ebong3%
Yvon Mvogo0%
Laurent Abergel0%
Bingourou Kamara0%
Aiyegun Tosin0%
Nathaniel Adjei0%
Abdoulaye Faye0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Ahmadou Bamba Dieng32%
Pablo Pagis25%
Aiyegun Tosin11%
Mohamed Bamba11%
Arthur Avom Ebong6%
Jean-Victor Makengo6%
Nathaniel Adjei6%
Noah Cadiou3%
Sambou Soumano3%
Igor Silva0%
Yvon Mvogo0%
Laurent Abergel0%
Bingourou Kamara0%
Montassar Talbi0%
Darlin Yongwa0%
Joel Mugisha Mvuka0%
Théo Le Bris0%
Bamo Meïté0%
Karim Dermane0%
Panos Katseris0%
Arsène Kouassi0%
Abdoulaye Faye0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (26)
€1477m
MON (26)
€326m
LIL (27)
€312m
STR (32)
€304m
LYO (32)
€293m
REN (26)
€241m
MAR (22)
€225m
LEN (27)
€187m
NIC (28)
€152m
SE (30)
€93m
LOR (24)
€87m
NAN (25)
€82m
ANG (23)
€73m
REI (30)
€72m
SB2 (20)
€64m
MET (26)
€43m
ET (23)
€36m
MON (24)
€29m
CF (21)
€15m
Metz's squad is €44m less valuable than Lorient's (€43m vs €87m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (10)
€638m
MON (9)
€148m
LIL (13)
€133m
LYO (9)
€122m
STR (13)
€112m
MAR (9)
€91m
REN (8)
€87m
NIC (8)
€62m
SE (10)
€54m
LEN (8)
€52m
REI (12)
€38m
NAN (8)
€31m
ANG (9)
€30m
SB2 (6)
€25m
LOR (8)
€20m
MET (11)
€17m
MON (9)
€11m
ET (7)
€7m
CF (5)
€2m
Metz's attack is €3m less valuable than Lorient's (€17m vs €20m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (5)
€430m
LIL (4)
€102m
MON (5)
€84m
LYO (8)
€82m
MAR (5)
€68m
STR (6)
€56m
REN (5)
€44m
LOR (5)
€32m
NIC (9)
€31m
LEN (5)
€24m
SB2 (6)
€20m
MET (5)
€18m
NAN (7)
€16m
REI (6)
€13m
ANG (3)
€11m
ET (6)
€11m
SE (7)
€11m
MON (5)
€6m
CF (4)
€3m
Metz's midfield is €14m less valuable than Lorient's (€18m vs €32m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (11)
€409m
STR (13)
€136m
LEN (14)
€112m
REN (13)
€109m
MON (12)
€93m
LYO (15)
€89m
LIL (10)
€76m
MAR (8)
€66m
NIC (11)
€60m
LOR (11)
€35m
NAN (10)
€34m
ANG (11)
€32m
SE (13)
€28m
REI (12)
€21m
SB2 (8)
€19m
ET (10)
€17m
MON (10)
€12m
CF (12)
€10m
MET (10)
€8m
Metz's defence is €27m less valuable than Lorient's (€8m vs €35m).
France: Ligue 1 2021/22 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full France: Ligue 1 stats & trends →
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Paris Saint Germain
Marseille
Monaco
Nice
Rennes
Strasbourg
Lyon
Lens
Nantes
Lille
Stade Brestois 29
Reims
Montpellier
Angers
Estac Troyes
Clermont Foot
Saint Etienne
Bordeaux