This opponent (Montpellier) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Montpellier
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.8
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
2.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
1.83
1.69
1.69
1.00
2.00
vs Stronger (16)
1.50
2.44
2.25
2.00
0.75
2.88
vs Similar (10)
1.10
1.20
1.17
1.50
1.00
0.75
vs Weaker (4)
1.50
1.00
1.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
17% (-11pp vs league)
This opponent (Metz) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
73.1%
Under 1.5
26.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
46.4%
@ 2.24+3.9%
Under 2.5
53.6%
@ 1.65-3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
24.9%
Under 3.5
75.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
50.7%
No
49.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
13.4%
1-0
11.0%
2-1
9.3%
2-0
9.3%
0-0
9.2%
0-1
6.8%
1-2
6.1%
3-1
4.7%
Metz goals ↓
Montpellier goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.2%
6.8%
4.0%
1.3%
0.3%
1
11%
13%
6.1%
2.0%
0.5%
2
9.3%
9.3%
4.7%
1.6%
0.4%
3
4.7%
4.7%
2.4%
0.8%
0.2%
4
1.8%
1.8%
0.9%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Metz goals (down), columns = Montpellier goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Lille
2.18
Paris Saint Germain
2.16
Monaco
2.05
Lyon
2.00
Marseille
1.58
Rennes
1.53
Lens
1.50
Montpellier
1.42
Nice
1.37
Metz
1.24
Saint Etienne
1.21
Bordeaux
1.18
Angers
1.16
Reims
1.11
Strasbourg
1.11
Lorient
1.11
Stade Brestois 29
1.08
Nantes
1.05
Nimes
0.92
Dijon
0.55
Metz is 0.18 points worse than Montpellier in terms of average points per game (1.24 vs 1.42).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Paris Saint Germain
2.26
Lyon
2.13
Monaco
2.00
Lille
1.68
Montpellier
1.58
Lens
1.45
Marseille
1.42
Rennes
1.37
Nice
1.32
Stade Brestois 29
1.32
Lorient
1.32
Strasbourg
1.29
Nantes
1.24
Metz
1.16
Reims
1.11
Saint Etienne
1.11
Bordeaux
1.11
Nimes
1.05
Angers
1.05
Dijon
0.66
Metz is 0.42 goals worse than Montpellier in terms of goals scored per game (1.16 vs 1.58).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Lille
0.61
Paris Saint Germain
0.74
Rennes
1.05
Monaco
1.11
Lyon
1.13
Marseille
1.24
Metz
1.26
Reims
1.32
Nice
1.39
Lens
1.42
Saint Etienne
1.42
Nantes
1.45
Bordeaux
1.47
Angers
1.53
Strasbourg
1.53
Montpellier
1.63
Stade Brestois 29
1.74
Lorient
1.79
Nimes
1.87
Dijon
1.92
Metz is 0.37 goals better than Montpellier in terms of goals conceded per game (1.26 vs 1.63).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Metz
For 3.9 · Against 5.4 · Total 9.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.3 · Against 1.6 · Total 3.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.3 · Against 12.8 · Total 27.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Montpellier
For 4.7 · Against 5.0 · Total 9.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.2 · Against 2.0 · Total 4.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.3 · Against 11.9 · Total 25.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Metz
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.0
10.3
9.7
3.8
3.4
4.2
25.6
25.8
25.4
vs Stronger (18)
10.2
10.6
9.8
3.7
3.3
4.1
25.1
25.9
24.2
vs Similar (22)
9.7
9.5
9.8
3.8
3.8
3.8
25.9
26.8
24.9
vs Weaker (10)
10.4
11.6
9.2
3.9
2.6
5.2
26.0
23.6
28.4
% over line
58%
60%
56%
50%
44%
56%
78%
80%
76%
% under line
42%
40%
44%
50%
56%
44%
22%
20%
24%
This opponent (Montpellier) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Montpellier
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.9
10.0
9.7
4.7
4.9
4.5
28.2
28.2
28.3
vs Stronger (24)
10.4
11.5
9.1
5.1
5.2
5.0
27.4
28.9
25.6
vs Similar (19)
8.7
8.6
8.8
4.2
4.4
4.0
28.4
26.3
30.7
vs Weaker (7)
11.3
8.7
13.2
4.6
5.0
4.2
30.6
31.0
30.2
% over line
48%
54%
42%
66%
73%
58%
88%
88%
88%
% under line
52%
46%
58%
34%
27%
42%
12%
12%
12%
This opponent (Metz) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Bordeaux
10.6
Dijon
10.6
Nice
10.4
Paris Saint Germain
10.2
Lyon
10.1
Stade Brestois 29
10.0
Metz
10.0
Nimes
9.9
Marseille
9.9
Montpellier
9.9
Lorient
9.8
Nantes
9.8
Monaco
9.6
Angers
9.4
Saint Etienne
9.4
Lille
9.3
Reims
9.2
Rennes
9.1
Strasbourg
9.0
Lens
8.9
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Marseille
4.9
Nimes
4.9
Lens
4.8
Montpellier
4.7
Nice
4.7
Monaco
4.6
Nantes
4.4
Lyon
4.4
Bordeaux
4.3
Saint Etienne
4.3
Rennes
4.2
Lorient
4.2
Lille
4.1
Paris Saint Germain
4.0
Reims
3.9
Metz
3.8
Angers
3.7
Strasbourg
3.7
Stade Brestois 29
3.5
Dijon
3.4
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Lens
30.0
Montpellier
28.2
Rennes
28.0
Saint Etienne
26.9
Reims
26.8
Nantes
26.6
Nimes
26.5
Lille
26.4
Bordeaux
26.4
Lorient
26.0
Dijon
25.8
Marseille
25.8
Metz
25.6
Monaco
25.5
Strasbourg
25.1
Angers
24.7
Lyon
24.6
Nice
24.5
Paris Saint Germain
24.2
Stade Brestois 29
23.8
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
50.9%
Under 9.5
49.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
53.8%
Under 3.5
46.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
81.3%
Under 21.5
18.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Metz
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.40
0.60
0.53
0.47
0.27
vs Stronger (10)
0.20
0.30
0.25
0.75
0.17
0.00
vs Similar (14)
0.64
0.57
0.71
0.57
0.57
0.57
vs Weaker (6)
0.83
0.17
0.75
0.25
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Montpellier) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Montpellier
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.73
0.69
0.75
0.29
0.71
vs Stronger (16)
0.50
1.06
0.75
1.00
0.25
1.12
vs Similar (10)
0.70
0.40
0.83
0.67
0.50
0.00
vs Weaker (4)
0.00
0.25
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
53% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Metz) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Metz over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Metz over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Metz over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Montpellier over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Montpellier over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Montpellier over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Metz
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.50
0.73
0.53
0.60
0.47
vs Stronger (10)
0.50
0.90
0.50
0.75
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (14)
1.00
0.21
1.14
0.29
0.86
0.14
vs Weaker (6)
0.17
0.50
0.25
0.75
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Montpellier) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Montpellier
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
1.10
1.00
0.94
0.71
1.29
vs Stronger (16)
1.00
1.38
1.50
1.00
0.50
1.75
vs Similar (10)
0.40
0.80
0.33
0.83
0.50
0.75
vs Weaker (4)
1.50
0.75
1.00
1.00
2.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
23% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Metz) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Metz over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Metz over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Metz over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Montpellier over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Montpellier over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Montpellier over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
90.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
81.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
80.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 3.5
75.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
74.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
73.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
72.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Metz · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Pape Moussa Fall50%
Giorgi Abuashvili25%
Nampalys Mendy0%
Jean Ruiz0%
Florian Miguel0%
Jessy Deminguet0%
Jonathan Fischer0%
Cristian Castro0%
Ibou Sane0%
Idris Mohamed0%
Believe Munongo0%
Hamza Kadamani0%
Nathan Mbala0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Idris Mohamed67%
Nampalys Mendy25%
Florian Miguel25%
Jessy Deminguet25%
Pape Moussa Fall25%
Jean Ruiz0%
Giorgi Abuashvili0%
Jonathan Fischer0%
Cristian Castro0%
Ibou Sane0%
Believe Munongo0%
Hamza Kadamani0%
Nathan Mbala0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Jessy Deminguet25%
Nampalys Mendy0%
Jean Ruiz0%
Florian Miguel0%
Giorgi Abuashvili0%
Jonathan Fischer0%
Cristian Castro0%
Ibou Sane0%
Pape Moussa Fall0%
Idris Mohamed0%
Believe Munongo0%
Hamza Kadamani0%
Nathan Mbala0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Pape Moussa Fall50%
Giorgi Abuashvili25%
Nampalys Mendy0%
Jean Ruiz0%
Florian Miguel0%
Jessy Deminguet0%
Jonathan Fischer0%
Cristian Castro0%
Ibou Sane0%
Idris Mohamed0%
Believe Munongo0%
Hamza Kadamani0%
Nathan Mbala0%
Montpellier · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Yael Mouanga33%
Nicolas Pays25%
Yanis Issoufou25%
Julien Laporte0%
Théo Sainte-Luce0%
Daylam Meddah0%
Simon Ngapandouetnbu0%
Nordan Mukiele0%
Naoufel El Hannach0%
Noah Vidal0%
Hichem Abderrebi0%
Laciné Megnan-Pave0%
Daryll Benlahlou0%
Gregory Ayem0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Daylam Meddah67%
Yael Mouanga67%
Naoufel El Hannach33%
Gregory Ayem33%
Théo Sainte-Luce25%
Nordan Mukiele25%
Laciné Megnan-Pave25%
Julien Laporte0%
Simon Ngapandouetnbu0%
Nicolas Pays0%
Yanis Issoufou0%
Noah Vidal0%
Hichem Abderrebi0%
Daryll Benlahlou0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Théo Sainte-Luce25%
Laciné Megnan-Pave25%
Julien Laporte0%
Daylam Meddah0%
Simon Ngapandouetnbu0%
Nicolas Pays0%
Yael Mouanga0%
Yanis Issoufou0%
Nordan Mukiele0%
Naoufel El Hannach0%
Noah Vidal0%
Hichem Abderrebi0%
Daryll Benlahlou0%
Gregory Ayem0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Laciné Megnan-Pave50%
Julien Laporte0%
Théo Sainte-Luce0%
Daylam Meddah0%
Simon Ngapandouetnbu0%
Nicolas Pays0%
Yael Mouanga0%
Yanis Issoufou0%
Nordan Mukiele0%
Naoufel El Hannach0%
Noah Vidal0%
Hichem Abderrebi0%
Daryll Benlahlou0%
Gregory Ayem0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (26)
€1477m
MON (26)
€326m
LIL (27)
€312m
STR (32)
€304m
LYO (32)
€293m
REN (26)
€241m
MAR (22)
€225m
LEN (27)
€187m
NIC (28)
€152m
SE (30)
€93m
LOR (24)
€87m
NAN (25)
€82m
ANG (23)
€73m
REI (30)
€72m
SB2 (20)
€64m
MET (26)
€43m
MON (24)
€29m
DIJ (20)
€5m
Metz's squad is €14m more valuable than Montpellier's (€43m vs €29m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (10)
€638m
MON (9)
€148m
LIL (13)
€133m
LYO (9)
€122m
STR (13)
€112m
MAR (9)
€91m
REN (8)
€87m
NIC (8)
€62m
SE (10)
€54m
LEN (8)
€52m
REI (12)
€38m
NAN (8)
€31m
ANG (9)
€30m
SB2 (6)
€25m
LOR (8)
€20m
MET (11)
€17m
MON (9)
€11m
DIJ (7)
€1m
Metz's attack is €6m more valuable than Montpellier's (€17m vs €11m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (5)
€430m
LIL (4)
€102m
MON (5)
€84m
LYO (8)
€82m
MAR (5)
€68m
STR (6)
€56m
REN (5)
€44m
LOR (5)
€32m
NIC (9)
€31m
LEN (5)
€24m
SB2 (6)
€20m
MET (5)
€18m
NAN (7)
€16m
REI (6)
€13m
ANG (3)
€11m
SE (7)
€11m
MON (5)
€6m
DIJ (6)
€2m
Metz's midfield is €12m more valuable than Montpellier's (€18m vs €6m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (11)
€409m
STR (13)
€136m
LEN (14)
€112m
REN (13)
€109m
MON (12)
€93m
LYO (15)
€89m
LIL (10)
€76m
MAR (8)
€66m
NIC (11)
€60m
LOR (11)
€35m
NAN (10)
€34m
ANG (11)
€32m
SE (13)
€28m
REI (12)
€21m
SB2 (8)
€19m
MON (10)
€12m
MET (10)
€8m
DIJ (7)
€2m
Metz's defence is €5m less valuable than Montpellier's (€8m vs €12m).
France: Ligue 1 2020/21 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full France: Ligue 1 stats & trends →
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Lille
Paris Saint Germain
Monaco
Lyon
Marseille
Rennes
Lens
Nice
Saint Etienne
Bordeaux
Angers
Reims
Strasbourg
Lorient
Stade Brestois 29
Nantes
Nimes
Dijon