Mgarr United face a likely defeat as the model favours an away win, with a 47 % chance for Tarxien Rainbows, 28 % for a home victory and 26 % for a draw. The expected total is 3.1 goals, but the most probable total is two, with a 23 % chance of exactly 2 goals. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 11.8 % probability, and that is the only scoreline to mention. Mgarr United, playing at home against a similarly-matched opponent, average 1.62 goals scored and 1.88 conceded, while Tarxien Rainbows, on the road, average 1.0 scored and 2.0 conceded against similar opposition. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (98.7 %), Under 6.5 (96.3 %), Home under 3.5 goals (95.6 %), Under 5.5 (91.0 %), Away under 3.5 goals (89.8 %), Away +2 handicap (87.8 %), Home under 2.5 goals (85.5 %) and Away over 0.5 goals (82.7 %).
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Mgarr United win
28.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
28.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Tarxien Rainbows win
44.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Mgarr United
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.67
1.43
1.80
1.93
1.53
0.93
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
1.71
1.71
1.62
2.38
1.83
0.83
vs Weaker (16)
1.62
1.19
2.00
1.43
1.33
1.00
Clean sheet %
23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Tarxien Rainbows) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Tarxien Rainbows
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
1.80
1.13
1.80
0.80
1.80
vs Stronger (4)
1.00
1.50
1.50
1.00
0.50
2.00
vs Similar (26)
0.96
1.85
1.08
1.92
0.85
1.77
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
10% (-16pp vs league)
This opponent (Mgarr United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
75.7%
Under 1.5
24.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
49.7%
Under 2.5
50.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
27.8%
Under 3.5
72.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
54.6%
No
45.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.4%
0-1
9.3%
1-2
9.1%
0-0
8.2%
0-2
7.9%
2-1
7.0%
1-0
6.9%
2-2
5.3%
Mgarr United goals ↓
Tarxien Rainbows goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.2%
9.3%
7.9%
4.0%
1.5%
1
6.9%
13%
9.1%
4.6%
1.7%
2
4.7%
7.0%
5.3%
2.7%
1.0%
3
1.8%
2.7%
2.0%
1.0%
0.4%
4
0.5%
0.8%
0.6%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Mgarr United goals (down), columns = Tarxien Rainbows goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Tarxien Rainbows
2.82
Naxxar Lions
2.73
Swieqi United
2.14
Melita
1.67
Pietà Hotspurs
1.59
Sirens
1.59
Mgarr United
1.50
Fgura United
1.45
Gudja United
1.45
Victoria Hotspurs
1.40
Attard
1.40
Santa Lucía
1.36
Zurrieq
1.23
St. Andrews
1.23
Vittoriosa Stars
0.95
Zebbug Rangers
0.91
Mgarr United is 1.32 points worse than Tarxien Rainbows in terms of average points per game (1.50 vs 2.82).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Tarxien Rainbows
3.33
Naxxar Lions
3.23
Sirens
2.27
Swieqi United
2.23
Pietà Hotspurs
1.91
Fgura United
1.86
Mgarr United
1.86
Melita
1.86
Santa Lucía
1.82
Victoria Hotspurs
1.65
Attard
1.65
Zurrieq
1.64
Gudja United
1.32
St. Andrews
1.18
Vittoriosa Stars
1.18
Zebbug Rangers
1.05
Mgarr United is 1.47 goals worse than Tarxien Rainbows in terms of goals scored per game (1.86 vs 3.33).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Tarxien Rainbows
0.82
Naxxar Lions
0.85
Gudja United
1.14
Swieqi United
1.18
Melita
1.33
Santa Lucía
1.41
Mgarr United
1.50
Sirens
1.50
Vittoriosa Stars
1.50
Pietà Hotspurs
1.55
Victoria Hotspurs
1.65
Attard
1.65
Fgura United
1.68
Zurrieq
1.73
St. Andrews
1.73
Zebbug Rangers
2.05
Mgarr United is 0.68 goals worse than Tarxien Rainbows in terms of goals conceded per game (1.50 vs 0.82).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Mgarr United or Draw
56.0%
Avg Implied -
28%
28%
44%
covers Mgarr United + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Mgarr United or Tarxien Rainbows
72.0%
Avg Implied -
28%
28%
44%
covers Mgarr United + Tarxien Rainbows
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Tarxien Rainbows
72.0%
Avg Implied -
28%
28%
44%
covers Draw + Tarxien Rainbows
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Mgarr United over/under 0.5
Over
68.6%
Under
31.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mgarr United over/under 1.5
Over
32.2%
Under
67.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mgarr United over/under 2.5
Over
11.1%
Under
88.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mgarr United over/under 3.5
Over
3.0%
Under
97.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tarxien Rainbows over/under 0.5
Over
77.8%
Under
22.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tarxien Rainbows over/under 1.5
Over
44.4%
Under
55.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tarxien Rainbows over/under 2.5
Over
19.2%
Under
80.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tarxien Rainbows over/under 3.5
Over
6.6%
Under
93.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Mgarr United, so a minus line means Mgarr United give that many goals of a start and Tarxien Rainbows receive them. At -1, Mgarr United must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Mgarr United win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Mgarr United)
Mgarr United -2
3.7%
Draw -2
8.1%
Tarxien Rainbows +2
88.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Mgarr United)
Mgarr United -1
11.7%
Draw -1
16.3%
Tarxien Rainbows +1
72.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Mgarr United)
Mgarr United +1
56.0%
Draw +1
21.5%
Tarxien Rainbows -1
22.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Mgarr United)
Mgarr United +2
77.5%
Draw +2
13.6%
Tarxien Rainbows -2
8.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Mgarr United
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.63
0.80
0.93
0.47
0.33
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
0.64
0.93
0.75
1.25
0.50
0.50
vs Weaker (16)
0.62
0.38
0.86
0.57
0.44
0.22
Clean sheet %
53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Tarxien Rainbows) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Tarxien Rainbows
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.90
0.47
0.93
0.20
0.87
vs Stronger (4)
0.25
0.75
0.50
0.50
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (26)
0.35
0.92
0.46
1.00
0.23
0.85
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Mgarr United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
70.5%
Under 0.5
29.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
34.6%
Under 1.5
65.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
13.6%
Under 2.5
86.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Mgarr United over/under 0.5 HT
Over
47.0%
Under
53.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mgarr United over/under 1.5 HT
Over
14.7%
Under
85.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mgarr United over/under 2.5 HT
Over
3.0%
Under
97.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tarxien Rainbows over/under 0.5 HT
Over
47.5%
Under
52.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tarxien Rainbows over/under 1.5 HT
Over
13.4%
Under
86.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tarxien Rainbows over/under 2.5 HT
Over
2.0%
Under
98.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Mgarr United
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.80
1.00
1.00
1.07
0.60
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
1.07
0.79
0.88
1.12
1.33
0.33
vs Weaker (16)
1.00
0.81
1.14
0.86
0.89
0.78
Clean sheet %
43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Tarxien Rainbows) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Tarxien Rainbows
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.90
0.67
0.87
0.60
0.93
vs Stronger (4)
0.75
0.75
1.00
0.50
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (26)
0.62
0.92
0.62
0.92
0.62
0.92
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Mgarr United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
81.3%
Under 0.5
18.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
46.7%
Under 1.5
53.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
20.6%
Under 2.5
79.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Mgarr United over/under 0.5 2H
Over
53.6%
Under
46.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mgarr United over/under 1.5 2H
Over
21.2%
Under
78.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mgarr United over/under 2.5 2H
Over
4.5%
Under
95.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tarxien Rainbows over/under 0.5 2H
Over
52.5%
Under
47.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tarxien Rainbows over/under 1.5 2H
Over
19.5%
Under
80.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tarxien Rainbows over/under 2.5 2H
Over
6.2%
Under
93.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
97.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
95.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
94.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
93.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
93.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
88.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
88.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
86.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
86.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
86.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
85.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
81.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
80.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
80.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
79.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
78.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
77.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
77.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
75.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
72.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
72.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
72.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
72.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 HT goals
70.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Malta: Challenge League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Malta: Challenge League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Attard
Sirens
Naxxar Lions
Zurrieq
St. Andrews
Pietà Hotspurs
Melita
Swieqi United
Santa Lucía
Fgura United
Gudja United
Zebbug Rangers
Victoria Hotspurs
Vittoriosa Stars