Mgarr United’s recent form shows a team that can find the net, averaging 2.17 goals at home against weaker opposition, while conceding 1.67. Vittoriosa Stars, playing away against stronger sides, have scored only 1.0 and conceded 1.0 on average. The model projects a high-scoring affair, with an expected total of 3.4 goals and a most likely total of three, a 22% chance. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 10.6% probability. Home win is the favoured outcome, with a 39% chance, draw 25%, and away win 37%. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (97.7%), Under 6.5 (94.2%), Away under 3.5 goals (91.1%), Home under 3.5 goals (90.4%), Under 5.5 (87.1%), Over 1.5 (86.2%), Home over 0.5 goals (82.1%), and Away over 0.5 goals (81.3%). Mgarr United’s recent five matches ended with two straight defeats, and their last game against Zurrieq ended 2-4. Vittoriosa Stars also finished with two straight defeats, losing 2-3 to Gudja United. The model’s selection points to a tight contest with both sides likely to score.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Mgarr United win
38.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
24.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Vittoriosa Stars win
36.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Mgarr United
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.67
1.43
1.80
1.93
1.53
0.93
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
1.71
1.71
1.62
2.38
1.83
0.83
vs Weaker (16)
1.62
1.19
2.00
1.43
1.33
1.00
Clean sheet %
23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Vittoriosa Stars) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Vittoriosa Stars
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
1.57
0.94
1.31
1.57
1.86
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
0.50
1.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (20)
1.20
1.80
0.78
1.33
1.55
2.18
vs Weaker (8)
1.38
1.25
1.17
1.50
2.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Mgarr United) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
86.2%
Under 1.5
13.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
66.0%
Under 2.5
34.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
44.1%
Under 3.5
55.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
67.7%
No
32.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.6%
2-1
8.3%
1-2
8.1%
2-2
7.0%
2-0
5.0%
1-0
4.8%
3-1
4.8%
0-2
4.7%
Mgarr United goals ↓
Vittoriosa Stars goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.3%
4.6%
4.7%
2.6%
1.1%
1
4.8%
11%
8.1%
4.5%
1.9%
2
5.0%
8.3%
7.0%
3.9%
1.6%
3
2.8%
4.8%
4.0%
2.2%
0.9%
4
1.2%
2.1%
1.7%
1.0%
0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Mgarr United goals (down), columns = Vittoriosa Stars goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Tarxien Rainbows
2.82
Naxxar Lions
2.73
Swieqi United
2.14
Melita
1.67
Pietà Hotspurs
1.59
Sirens
1.59
Mgarr United
1.50
Fgura United
1.45
Gudja United
1.45
Victoria Hotspurs
1.40
Attard
1.40
Santa Lucía
1.36
Zurrieq
1.23
St. Andrews
1.23
Vittoriosa Stars
0.95
Zebbug Rangers
0.91
Mgarr United is 0.55 points better than Vittoriosa Stars in terms of average points per game (1.50 vs 0.95).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Tarxien Rainbows
3.33
Naxxar Lions
3.23
Sirens
2.27
Swieqi United
2.23
Pietà Hotspurs
1.91
Fgura United
1.86
Mgarr United
1.86
Melita
1.86
Santa Lucía
1.82
Victoria Hotspurs
1.65
Attard
1.65
Zurrieq
1.64
Gudja United
1.32
St. Andrews
1.18
Vittoriosa Stars
1.18
Zebbug Rangers
1.05
Mgarr United is 0.68 goals better than Vittoriosa Stars in terms of goals scored per game (1.86 vs 1.18).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Tarxien Rainbows
0.82
Naxxar Lions
0.85
Gudja United
1.14
Swieqi United
1.18
Melita
1.33
Santa Lucía
1.41
Mgarr United
1.50
Sirens
1.50
Vittoriosa Stars
1.50
Pietà Hotspurs
1.55
Victoria Hotspurs
1.65
Attard
1.65
Fgura United
1.68
Zurrieq
1.73
St. Andrews
1.73
Zebbug Rangers
2.05
Mgarr United and Vittoriosa Stars are level in goals conceded per game (both 1.50).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Mgarr United or Draw
63.3%
Avg Implied -
39%
25%
37%
covers Mgarr United + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Mgarr United or Vittoriosa Stars
75.4%
Avg Implied -
39%
25%
37%
covers Mgarr United + Vittoriosa Stars
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Vittoriosa Stars
61.3%
Avg Implied -
39%
25%
37%
covers Draw + Vittoriosa Stars
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Mgarr United over/under 0.5
Over
82.1%
Under
17.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mgarr United over/under 1.5
Over
51.4%
Under
48.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mgarr United over/under 2.5
Over
24.9%
Under
75.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mgarr United over/under 3.5
Over
9.6%
Under
90.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vittoriosa Stars over/under 0.5
Over
81.3%
Under
18.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vittoriosa Stars over/under 1.5
Over
49.9%
Under
50.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vittoriosa Stars over/under 2.5
Over
23.6%
Under
76.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vittoriosa Stars over/under 3.5
Over
8.9%
Under
91.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Mgarr United, so a minus line means Mgarr United give that many goals of a start and Vittoriosa Stars receive them. At -1, Mgarr United must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Mgarr United win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Mgarr United)
Mgarr United -2
8.6%
Draw -2
11.8%
Vittoriosa Stars +2
79.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Mgarr United)
Mgarr United -1
20.5%
Draw -1
18.2%
Vittoriosa Stars +1
61.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Mgarr United)
Mgarr United +1
63.3%
Draw +1
17.7%
Vittoriosa Stars -1
19.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Mgarr United)
Mgarr United +2
81.0%
Draw +2
11.2%
Vittoriosa Stars -2
7.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Mgarr United
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.63
0.80
0.93
0.47
0.33
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
0.64
0.93
0.75
1.25
0.50
0.50
vs Weaker (16)
0.62
0.38
0.86
0.57
0.44
0.22
Clean sheet %
53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Vittoriosa Stars) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Vittoriosa Stars
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.87
0.31
0.88
0.71
0.86
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (21)
0.52
0.90
0.20
0.80
0.82
1.00
vs Weaker (7)
0.57
0.86
0.60
1.20
0.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Mgarr United) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Mgarr United over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mgarr United over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mgarr United over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vittoriosa Stars over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vittoriosa Stars over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vittoriosa Stars over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Mgarr United
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.80
1.00
1.00
1.07
0.60
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
1.07
0.79
0.88
1.12
1.33
0.33
vs Weaker (16)
1.00
0.81
1.14
0.86
0.89
0.78
Clean sheet %
43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Vittoriosa Stars) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Vittoriosa Stars
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.77
0.56
0.56
0.86
1.00
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (21)
0.62
0.90
0.50
0.60
0.73
1.18
vs Weaker (7)
0.86
0.57
0.60
0.60
1.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Mgarr United) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Mgarr United over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mgarr United over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mgarr United over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vittoriosa Stars over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vittoriosa Stars over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vittoriosa Stars over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
97.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
94.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
91.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
90.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
87.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
86.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
82.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
81.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
81.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
79.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
76.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
75.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
75.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
74.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Malta: Challenge League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Malta: Challenge League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Attard
Sirens
Naxxar Lions
Zurrieq
Tarxien Rainbows
St. Andrews
Pietà Hotspurs
Melita
Swieqi United
Santa Lucía
Fgura United
Gudja United
Zebbug Rangers
Victoria Hotspurs