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Mgarr United vs Zurrieq Prediction & Stats

Date: 25/10/2026
Time: 18:30
Mgarr United
Mgarr United
Vs
71%
17%
12%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Zurrieq
Zurrieq
Malta: Challenge League
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Mgarr United enter the match as clear favorites, the model assigning a 71% chance of a home win, a 17% draw and a 12% away win. Their recent 2-straight defeats have not dampened confidence, and the 2-4 loss to Zurrieq is an outlier in a season where they average 2.17 goals scored and 1.67 conceded at home against weaker opposition. Zurrieq, playing away against stronger opponents, averages 1.62 goals scored and 1.62 conceded, and their last outing was a 4-2 victory over Mgarr United, giving them a slight morale lift. The expected total goals is 3.9, with the most likely total of 3 goals occurring 20% of the time. The single most probable scoreline is 2-1, a 8.8% chance. Suggested picks include an away under 3.5 goals (97.2%), home +2 handicap (95.4%), under 7.5 (95.4%), home over 0.5 goals (93.8%), over 1.5 (90.8%), under 6.5 (89.9%), away under 2.5 goals (89.5%) and home or draw (87.8%). The model’s overall probabilities are 71% for a home win, 17% for a draw, and 12% for an away win.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Mgarr United win
71.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
16.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Zurrieq win
12.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Mgarr UnitedMgarr United

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-511D24L00D50W21W20W11D11D02L24LA·ZUR01/02H·FGU07/02A·GUD14/02H·MTA21/02A·MAR28/02A·ZEB08/03H·VIT15/03H·SAN06/04H·GUD12/04A·ZUR18/04
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.671.431.801.931.530.93
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (14)1.711.711.622.381.830.83
vs Weaker (16)1.621.192.001.431.331.00
Clean sheet %23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Zurrieq) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ZurrieqZurrieq

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-411D01L13L30W12L20W33D21W03L42WH·MGA01/02A·SIR07/02A·PIE14/02A·GUD21/02A·VIT28/02A·MTA07/03H·ZEB15/03H·MAR01/04A·SAN12/04H·MGA18/04
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.701.771.642.141.751.44
vs Stronger (25)1.601.761.581.921.621.62
vs Similar (3)2.672.672.003.504.001.00
vs Weaker (2)1.500.50--1.500.50
Clean sheet %20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Mgarr United) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

5%10%15%20%3%07%116%220%320%415%520%6+
The model estimates around 3.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (20%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
90.8%
Under 1.5
9.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
74.8%
Under 2.5
25.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
54.8%
Under 3.5
45.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
64.0%
No
36.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-1
8.8%
3-1
8.1%
2-0
7.8%
3-0
7.2%
1-1
6.9%
4-1
5.7%
4-0
5.0%
1-0
5.0%
Mgarr United goals ↓
Zurrieq goals →
01234
02.6%1.6%1.3%0.5%0.1%
15.0%6.9%3.6%1.3%0.4%
27.8%8.8%4.9%1.9%0.5%
37.2%8.1%4.6%1.7%0.5%
45.0%5.7%3.2%1.2%0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Mgarr United goals (down), columns = Zurrieq goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Tarxien Rainbows
2.82
Naxxar Lions
2.73
Swieqi United
2.14
Melita
1.67
Pietà Hotspurs
1.59
Sirens
1.59
Mgarr United
1.50
Fgura United
1.45
Gudja United
1.45
Victoria Hotspurs
1.40
Attard
1.40
Santa Lucía
1.36
Zurrieq
1.23
St. Andrews
1.23
Vittoriosa Stars
0.95
Zebbug Rangers
0.91
Mgarr United is 0.27 points better than Zurrieq in terms of average points per game (1.50 vs 1.23).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Tarxien Rainbows
3.33
Naxxar Lions
3.23
Sirens
2.27
Swieqi United
2.23
Pietà Hotspurs
1.91
Fgura United
1.86
Mgarr United
1.86
Melita
1.86
Santa Lucía
1.82
Victoria Hotspurs
1.65
Attard
1.65
Zurrieq
1.64
Gudja United
1.32
St. Andrews
1.18
Vittoriosa Stars
1.18
Zebbug Rangers
1.05
Mgarr United is 0.23 goals better than Zurrieq in terms of goals scored per game (1.86 vs 1.64).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Tarxien Rainbows
0.82
Naxxar Lions
0.85
Gudja United
1.14
Swieqi United
1.18
Melita
1.33
Santa Lucía
1.41
Sirens
1.50
Mgarr United
1.50
Vittoriosa Stars
1.50
Pietà Hotspurs
1.55
Victoria Hotspurs
1.65
Attard
1.65
Fgura United
1.68
Zurrieq
1.73
St. Andrews
1.73
Zebbug Rangers
2.05
Mgarr United is 0.23 goals better than Zurrieq in terms of goals conceded per game (1.50 vs 1.73).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Mgarr United or Draw
87.8%
Avg Implied -
71%
17%
12%
covers Mgarr United + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Mgarr United or Zurrieq
83.4%
Avg Implied -
71%
17%
12%
covers Mgarr United + Zurrieq
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Zurrieq
28.8%
Avg Implied -
71%
17%
12%
covers Draw + Zurrieq
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Mgarr United over/under 0.5
Over
93.8%
Under
6.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mgarr United over/under 1.5
Over
76.5%
Under
23.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mgarr United over/under 2.5
Over
52.6%
Under
47.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mgarr United over/under 3.5
Over
30.3%
Under
69.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zurrieq over/under 0.5
Over
67.6%
Under
32.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zurrieq over/under 1.5
Over
31.1%
Under
68.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zurrieq over/under 2.5
Over
10.5%
Under
89.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zurrieq over/under 3.5
Over
2.8%
Under
97.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 7. Handicap

Handicap

The handicap is applied to Mgarr United, so a minus line means Mgarr United give that many goals of a start and Zurrieq receive them. At -1, Mgarr United must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Mgarr United win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Mgarr United)
Mgarr United -2
31.7%
Draw -2
19.8%
Zurrieq +2
48.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Mgarr United)
Mgarr United -1
51.6%
Draw -1
19.7%
Zurrieq +1
28.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Mgarr United)
Mgarr United +1
87.8%
Draw +1
7.6%
Zurrieq -1
4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Mgarr United)
Mgarr United +2
95.4%
Draw +2
3.3%
Zurrieq -2
1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Mgarr UnitedMgarr United

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D01L00D30W01L00D10W00D01L11DA·ZUR01/02H·FGU07/02A·GUD14/02H·MTA21/02A·MAR28/02A·ZEB08/03H·VIT15/03H·SAN06/04H·GUD12/04A·ZUR18/04
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.630.630.800.930.470.33
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (14)0.640.930.751.250.500.50
vs Weaker (16)0.620.380.860.570.440.22
Clean sheet %53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Zurrieq) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ZurrieqZurrieq

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D01L03L10W12L10W12L11D02L11DH·MGA01/02A·SIR07/02A·PIE14/02A·GUD21/02A·VIT28/02A·MTA07/03H·ZEB15/03H·MAR01/04A·SAN12/04H·MGA18/04
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.571.000.361.000.751.00
vs Stronger (25)0.521.040.330.830.691.23
vs Similar (3)1.001.330.502.002.000.00
vs Weaker (2)0.500.00--0.500.00
Clean sheet %40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Mgarr United) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Mgarr United over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mgarr United over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mgarr United over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zurrieq over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zurrieq over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zurrieq over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Mgarr UnitedMgarr United

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D23L00D20W20W20W01L11D01L13LA·ZUR01/02H·FGU07/02A·GUD14/02H·MTA21/02A·MAR28/02A·ZEB08/03H·VIT15/03H·SAN06/04H·GUD12/04A·ZUR18/04
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.030.801.001.001.070.60
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (14)1.070.790.881.121.330.33
vs Weaker (16)1.000.811.140.860.890.78
Clean sheet %43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Zurrieq) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ZurrieqZurrieq

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D00D10W20W00D10W21W10W01L31WH·MGA01/02A·SIR07/02A·PIE14/02A·GUD21/02A·VIT28/02A·MTA07/03H·ZEB15/03H·MAR01/04A·SAN12/04H·MGA18/04
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.130.771.291.141.000.44
vs Stronger (25)1.080.721.251.080.920.38
vs Similar (3)1.671.331.501.502.001.00
vs Weaker (2)1.000.50--1.000.50
Clean sheet %43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Mgarr United) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Mgarr United over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mgarr United over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mgarr United over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zurrieq over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zurrieq over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zurrieq over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5Edge
Away under 3.5 goals97.2%-------
Home +2 handicap95.4%-------
Under 7.595.4%-------
Home over 0.5 goals93.8%-------
Over 1.590.8%-------
Under 6.589.9%-------
Away under 2.5 goals89.5%-------
Home or Draw87.8%-------
Home +1 handicap87.8%-------
Home or Away83.4%-------
Under 5.580.0%-------
Home over 1.5 goals76.5%-------
Over 2.574.8%-------
Home win71.2%-------

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NL (16)
€1m
TR (8)
€1m
SU (2)
€0m
GU (1)
€0m
ZUR (1)
€0m
ZR (1)
€0m
FU (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NL (4)
€0m
TR (2)
€0m
SU (2)
€0m
FU (1)
€0m
GU (0)
€0m
ZUR (0)
€0m
ZR (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NL (5)
€0m
TR (2)
€0m
GU (1)
€0m
SU (0)
€0m
ZUR (0)
€0m
ZR (0)
€0m
FU (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NL (7)
€1m
TR (4)
€0m
ZUR (1)
€0m
ZR (1)
€0m
SU (0)
€0m
GU (0)
€0m
FU (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

4 previous meetings
0
MU wins
2
Draws
2
ZUR wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Mgarr United vs Zurrieq · H/A from MU
DateH/AGameScore
18/04/26AZurrieq Vs MU4-2
01/02/26AZurrieq Vs MU1-1
05/04/25HMU Vs Zurrieq0-2
09/02/25AZurrieq Vs MU1-1

Mgarr UnitedMgarr United

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
18/04/26AZurrieq Vs MU4-2
12/04/26HMU Vs Gudja United0-2
06/04/26HMU Vs Santa Lucía1-1
15/03/26HMU Vs Vittoriosa Stars1-1
08/03/26AZebbug Rangers Vs MU0-2
28/02/26AMarsa Vs MU1-2
21/02/26HMU Vs Mtarfa5-0
14/02/26AGudja United Vs MU0-0
07/02/26HMU Vs Fgura United2-4
01/02/26AZurrieq Vs MU1-1

ZurrieqZurrieq

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
18/04/26HZUR Vs Mgarr United4-2
12/04/26ASanta Lucía Vs ZUR3-0
01/04/26HZUR Vs Marsa2-1
15/03/26HZUR Vs Zebbug Rangers3-3
07/03/26AMtarfa Vs ZUR0-2
28/02/26AVittoriosa Stars Vs ZUR2-1
21/02/26AGudja United Vs ZUR0-3
14/02/26APietà Hotspurs Vs ZUR3-1
07/02/26ASirens Vs ZUR1-0
01/02/26HZUR Vs Mgarr United1-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Mgarr United
Mgarr United
Malta: Challenge League
Recent: 3 Wins / 4 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDDLL1.45
HomeLWDDL1.27
AwayDDWWL1.64
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %36%32%41%
AVG goals3.053.322.77
Over 1.5 %82%86%77%
Over 2.5 %48%59%36%
Over 3.5 %36%45%27%
Scored1.661.731.59
Conceded1.391.591.18
BTTS61%68%55%
Clean Sheet27%18%36%
Corners---
Cards---
Zurrieq
Zurrieq
Malta: Challenge League
Recent: 4 Wins / 2 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDWLW1.32
HomeDDDWW1.04
AwayLWLWL1.58
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %38%25%50%
AVG goals3.143.253.04
Over 1.5 %82%83%81%
Over 2.5 %60%58%62%
Over 3.5 %38%38%38%
Scored1.521.381.65
Conceded1.621.881.38
BTTS58%71%46%
Clean Sheet24%17%31%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1AttardAttard00
0%
0.0
00+0
-
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.00.0
-
2SirensSirens00
0%
0.0
00+0
-
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.00.0
-
3Mgarr UnitedMgarr United00
0%
0.0
00+0
-
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.00.0
-
4Naxxar LionsNaxxar Lions00
0%
0.0
00+0
-
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0010.00.0
-
5ZurrieqZurrieq00
0%
0.0
00+0
-
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.00.0
-
6Tarxien RainbowsTarxien Rainbows00
0%
0.0
00+0
-
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0000.00.0
-
7St. AndrewsSt. Andrews00
0%
0.0
00+0
-
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.00.0
-
8Pietà HotspursPietà Hotspurs00
0%
0.0
00+0
-
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.00.0
-
9MelitaMelita00
0%
0.0
00+0
-
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.00.0
-
10Swieqi UnitedSwieqi United00
0%
0.0
00+0
-
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.00.0
-
11Santa LucíaSanta Lucía00
0%
0.0
00+0
-
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.00.0
-
12Fgura UnitedFgura United00
0%
0.0
00+0
-
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.00.0
-
13Gudja UnitedGudja United00
0%
0.0
00+0
-
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.00.0
-
14Zebbug RangersZebbug Rangers00
0%
0.0
00+0
-
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.00.0
-
15Victoria HotspursVictoria Hotspurs00
0%
0.0
00+0
-
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.00.0
-
16Vittoriosa StarsVittoriosa Stars00
0%
0.0
00+0
-
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.00.0
-
Malta: Challenge League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Malta: Challenge League stats & trends →

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