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Middelfart vs HB Koge Result & Analysis

Date: 16/05/2026
Time: 12:00
Final 0-4
Middelfart
Middelfart
Vs
25%
25%
50%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
HB Koge
HB Koge
Denmark: 1. Division
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Middelfart winâś— Miss
24.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Drawâś— Miss
25.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
HB Koge winâś“ Hit
50.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš˝ 2. Goal Analysis

MiddelfartMiddelfart

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-612L14L01L25L02L06L15L12L01L31WH·HVI07/03A·LYN13/03H·HOB21/03H·AAL04/04A·HB 10/04H·HOB18/04A·AAR22/04A·B 926/04H·AAR01/05A·AAL08/05
Avg total
3.8
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
2.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.032.271.002.201.072.33
vs Stronger (21)0.862.480.832.250.892.78
vs Similar (9)1.441.781.672.001.331.67
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %7% (-20pp vs league)
This opponent (HB Koge) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

HB KogeHB Koge

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L02L33D20W20W21W21W11D32W00DH·ESB06/03A·B 913/03H·LYN21/03H·AAR06/04H·MID10/04A·B 917/04A·HOB22/04H·AAL26/04H·B 901/05A·AAR09/05
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.371.631.331.131.402.13
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (30)1.371.631.331.131.402.13
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %17% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (Middelfart) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%23%6%012%123%222%317%411%59%6+
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
82.1%
Under 1.5
17.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
59.1%
Under 2.5
40.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
36.7%
Under 3.5
63.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
60.6%
No
39.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.6%
1-2
9.6%
0-2
7.8%
0-1
7.5%
2-1
6.5%
2-2
6.0%
1-3
5.9%
0-0
5.7%
Middelfart goals ↓
HB Koge goals →
01234
05.7%7.5%7.8%4.8%2.2%
14.7%12%9.6%5.9%2.7%
23.6%6.5%6.0%3.6%1.7%
31.5%2.7%2.5%1.5%0.7%
40.5%0.8%0.8%0.5%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Middelfart goals (down), columns = HB Koge goals (across).

đź’Ş 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Lyngby
1.88
AC Horsens
1.69
Esbjerg
1.62
Hillerød
1.56
Aalborg
1.44
Hvidovre
1.44
Aarhus Fremad
1.38
Hobro
1.31
HB Koge
1.25
Kolding IF
1.19
B 93
1.16
Middelfart
0.47
Middelfart is 0.78 points worse than HB Koge in terms of average points per game (0.47 vs 1.25).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Lyngby
2.16
Aarhus Fremad
1.62
Aalborg
1.56
Esbjerg
1.41
B 93
1.38
Hvidovre
1.34
Hillerød
1.31
AC Horsens
1.31
HB Koge
1.31
Hobro
1.25
Kolding IF
1.16
Middelfart
1.00
Middelfart is 0.31 goals worse than HB Koge in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 1.31).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
AC Horsens
0.84
Lyngby
1.12
Aarhus Fremad
1.16
Hvidovre
1.22
Kolding IF
1.25
Hobro
1.34
Hillerød
1.34
Esbjerg
1.34
Aalborg
1.47
HB Koge
1.50
B 93
1.81
Middelfart
2.41
Middelfart is 0.91 goals worse than HB Koge in terms of goals conceded per game (2.41 vs 1.50).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

MiddelfartMiddelfart

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W12L01L20W00D03L13L11D00D10WH·HVI07/03A·LYN13/03H·HOB21/03H·AAL04/04A·HB 10/04H·HOB18/04A·AAR22/04A·B 926/04H·AAR01/05A·AAL08/05
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.600.800.530.730.670.87
vs Stronger (21)0.430.900.420.830.441.00
vs Similar (9)1.000.561.000.331.000.67
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (HB Koge) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

HB KogeHB Koge

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D01L21W00D00D10W10W11D12L00DH·ESB06/03A·B 913/03H·LYN21/03H·AAR06/04H·MID10/04A·B 917/04A·HOB22/04H·AAL26/04H·B 901/05A·AAR09/05
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.470.730.530.330.401.13
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (30)0.470.730.530.330.401.13
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Middelfart) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Middelfart over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Middelfart over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Middelfart over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HB Koge over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HB Koge over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HB Koge over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

MiddelfartMiddelfart

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
50-502L02L00D05L02L03L02L01L01L21WH·HVI07/03A·LYN13/03H·HOB21/03H·AAL04/04A·HB 10/04H·HOB18/04A·AAR22/04A·B 926/04H·AAR01/05A·AAL08/05
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
1.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.431.470.471.470.401.47
vs Stronger (21)0.431.570.421.420.441.78
vs Similar (9)0.441.220.671.670.331.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (HB Koge) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

HB KogeHB Koge

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L01L12L20W20W11D11D00D20W00DH·ESB06/03A·B 913/03H·LYN21/03H·AAR06/04H·MID10/04A·B 917/04A·HOB22/04H·AAL26/04H·B 901/05A·AAR09/05
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.900.900.800.801.001.00
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (30)0.900.900.800.801.001.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %37% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Middelfart) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Middelfart over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Middelfart over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Middelfart over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HB Koge over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HB Koge over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HB Koge over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.582.1%-------âś“ Hit

đź’° 14. Squad value

đź’° Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LYN (22)
€13m
AH (27)
€10m
AAL (24)
€10m
ESB (23)
€7m
HOB (23)
€7m
KI (21)
€6m
HVI (21)
€5m
HK (19)
€5m
HIL (18)
€4m
AF (21)
€3m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AH (9)
€4m
LYN (5)
€3m
AAL (7)
€2m
ESB (8)
€2m
HVI (6)
€2m
KI (8)
€2m
HOB (9)
€2m
HIL (5)
€1m
HK (5)
€1m
AF (6)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

đź§  Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LYN (8)
€5m
AH (6)
€2m
HOB (5)
€2m
AAL (5)
€2m
KI (5)
€2m
ESB (6)
€2m
HK (6)
€2m
HVI (6)
€1m
AF (8)
€1m
HIL (5)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AAL (12)
€6m
LYN (9)
€5m
AH (12)
€4m
HOB (9)
€3m
ESB (9)
€3m
HK (8)
€2m
HVI (9)
€2m
KI (8)
€2m
HIL (8)
€2m
AF (7)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

3 previous meetings
1
MID wins
1
Draws
1
HK wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Middelfart vs HB Koge · H/A from MID
DateH/AGameScore
10/04/26AHB Koge Vs MID2-0
29/11/25AHB Koge Vs MID1-2
16/08/25HMID Vs HB Koge2-2

MiddelfartMiddelfart

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
08/05/26AAalborg Vs MID1-3
01/05/26HMID Vs Aarhus Fremad0-1
26/04/26AB 93 Vs MID2-1
22/04/26AAarhus Fremad Vs MID5-1
18/04/26HMID Vs Hobro0-6
10/04/26AHB Koge Vs MID2-0
04/04/26HMID Vs Aalborg2-5
21/03/26HMID Vs Hobro0-1
13/03/26ALyngby Vs MID4-1
07/03/26HMID Vs Hvidovre1-2

HB KogeHB Koge

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
09/05/26AAarhus Fremad Vs HK0-0
01/05/26HHK Vs B 933-2
26/04/26HHK Vs Aalborg1-1
22/04/26AHobro Vs HK1-2
17/04/26AB 93 Vs HK1-2
10/04/26HHK Vs Middelfart2-0
06/04/26HHK Vs Aarhus Fremad2-0
21/03/26HHK Vs Lyngby3-3
13/03/26AB 93 Vs HK2-0
06/03/26HHK Vs Esbjerg0-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Middelfart
Middelfart
Denmark: 1. Division
Recent: 1 Wins / 0 Draws / 9 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLLLW0.68
HomeLLLLL0.67
AwayLLLLW0.69
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %15%11%19%
AVG goals3.213.063.38
Over 1.5 %76%72%81%
Over 2.5 %68%67%69%
Over 3.5 %44%39%50%
Scored1.061.061.06
Conceded2.152.002.31
BTTS62%61%62%
Clean Sheet9%11%6%
Corners---
Cards---
HB Koge
HB Koge
Denmark: 1. Division
Recent: 5 Wins / 3 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWDWD1.30
HomeDWWDW1.54
AwayDLWWD1.04
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %34%46%21%
AVG goals2.842.653.04
Over 1.5 %82%77%88%
Over 2.5 %52%38%67%
Over 3.5 %30%19%42%
Scored1.281.311.25
Conceded1.561.351.79
BTTS60%46%75%
Clean Sheet18%23%12%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1LyngbyLyngby3260
56%
1.9
6936+33
3.3
91%
69%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
13
3552.21.1
-
2AC HorsensAC Horsens3254
47%
1.7
4227+15
2.2
56%
41%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
10
4241.30.8
-
3EsbjergEsbjerg3252
47%
1.6
4543+2
2.8
75%
47%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
7
2231.41.3
-
4HillerødHillerød3250
41%
1.6
4243-1
2.7
81%
59%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1121.31.3
-
5HvidovreHvidovre3246
34%
1.4
4339+4
2.6
81%
50%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.31.2
-
6AalborgAalborg3246
38%
1.4
5047+3
3.0
78%
56%
41%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
10
2261.61.5
-
7Aarhus FremadAarhus Fremad3244
34%
1.4
5237+15
2.8
72%
53%
41%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.61.2
-
8HobroHobro3242
34%
1.3
4043-3
2.6
72%
41%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
7
2231.21.3
-
9HB KogeHB Koge3240
34%
1.2
4248-6
2.8
81%
53%
34%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1221.31.5
-
10Kolding IFKolding IF3238
31%
1.2
3740-3
2.4
72%
50%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2221.21.2
-
11B 93B 933237
31%
1.2
4458-14
3.2
81%
66%
41%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.8
-
12MiddelfartMiddelfart3215
9%
0.5
3277-45
3.4
78%
72%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.4
-
Denmark: 1. Division 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Denmark: 1. Division stats & trends →

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