Miedz Legnica is expected to emerge victorious in this Poland: I Liga match, with a 49% chance of a home win. The match is likely to be a low-scoring affair, with an expected total of 2.4 goals and the most likely total being 2 goals, occurring with a 27% probability. The most likely score is 1-1, happening with a 13.6% probability. Miedz Legnica has a strong home record, scoring 2.5 goals on average while conceding just 1. Miedz Legnica also performs well against stronger opponents, a characteristic of Arka Gdynia. Arka Gdynia, on the other hand, struggles to score away from home, averaging just 0.5 goals per match. The model predicts a home win, with a 23% chance of an away win and a 29% chance of a draw. The model's selections include Under 3.5 with a 77.2% probability and Over 1.5 with a 71% probability. Miedz Legnica has a 49% chance of winning, a 29% chance of drawing, and a 23% chance of losing.
Results analysis
Miedz Legnica extended their two-game winning run, beating Arka Gdynia 2-0 to confirm the model’s home win pick and the 2-0 final score. The pre-match favourite, Home win, had a 49 % probability and was correct. Every model selection landed: Under 7.5 goals hit at 99.6 %, Home under 2.5 HT goals hit at 99.2 %, Under 6.5 hit at 98.8 %, Away under 3.5 goals hit at 98.4 %, Under 5.5 hit at 96.3 %, Home under 2.5 2H goals hit at 96.2 %, Away under 2.5 HT goals hit at 95.9 %, and Away under 2.5 2H goals hit at 95.3 %. The match matched the model’s expectations, with Miedz Legnica’s form and Arka Gdynia’s defensive struggles reflected in the outcome.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Miedz Legnica win✓ Hit
48.5%
Avg Implied 40.6% · @ 2.24
Edge
+7.9%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
2.33
Pinnacle
2.31
Superbet
2.30
Dafabet
2.29
Betano
2.25
Draw✗ Miss
28.7%
Avg Implied 27.0% · @ 3.37
Edge
+1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
3.60
Pinnacle
3.52
BetVictor
3.50
Dafabet
3.45
Bet365
3.40
Arka Gdynia win✗ Miss
22.8%
Avg Implied 32.3% · @ 2.82
Edge
-9.6%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.01
Betano
2.95
Dafabet
2.90
1xBet
2.89
Bet365
2.88
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Miedz Legnica
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.60
1.20
1.72
1.22
1.42
1.17
vs Stronger (2)
2.00
3.00
2.00
3.00
2.00
3.00
vs Similar (23)
1.57
1.09
1.71
1.14
1.33
1.00
vs Weaker (5)
1.60
1.00
1.67
1.00
1.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
20% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Arka Gdynia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Arka Gdynia
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
1.83
1.75
1.31
0.71
2.43
vs Stronger (7)
1.00
2.57
1.50
2.50
0.33
2.67
vs Similar (21)
1.43
1.67
1.83
0.92
0.89
2.67
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
1.00
-
-
0.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
23% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Miedz Legnica) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
71.0%
@ 1.20-6.4%
Under 1.5
29.0%
@ 4.10+6.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.22
Pinnacle
1.21
Betfair
1.20
BetVictor
1.20
888Sport
1.20
Under
Pinnacle
4.37
Betfair
4.33
Bet365
4.33
888Sport
4.20
Superbet
4.10
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
43.8%
@ 1.67-11.9%
Under 2.5
56.2%
@ 2.10+11.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.72
Betano
1.67
BetVictor
1.67
Bet365
1.67
Marathonbet
1.67
Under
Bet365
2.15
Pinnacle
2.15
Betano
2.12
Superbet
2.10
Betfair
2.10
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
22.7%
@ 2.63-12.5%
Under 3.5
77.3%
@ 1.43+12.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.77
BetVictor
2.75
Betfair
2.70
888Sport
2.63
Bet365
2.62
Under
Betano
1.45
Betfair
1.44
888Sport
1.44
Superbet
1.44
Bet365
1.44
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
48.5%
@ 1.55-11.1%
No
51.5%
@ 2.28+11.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Betfair
1.57
Bet365
1.57
1xBet
1.55
BetVictor
1.55
William Hil
1.55
No
Betano
2.32
Betfair
2.30
888Sport
2.30
Superbet
2.30
William Hil
2.30
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.6%@ 6.35+6.6%
1-0
11.9%@ 9.01+6.9%
0-0
10.1%@ 12.00+6.3%
2-0 ✓
9.7%@ 11.50+5.8%
2-1
9.2%@ 8.27+3.8%
0-1
7.1%@ 10.38+2.8%
1-2
5.8%@ 9.51+1.1%
3-0
4.8%@ 20.90+2.7%
Miedz Legnica goals ↓
Arka Gdynia goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
10%
7.1%
3.9%
1.2%
0.3%
1
12%
14%
5.8%
1.8%
0.4%
2
9.7%
9.2%
4.3%
1.4%
0.3%
3
4.8%
4.5%
2.1%
0.7%
0.2%
4
1.8%
1.7%
0.8%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Miedz Legnica goals (down), columns = Arka Gdynia goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Miedz Legnica
2.17
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
2.00
ŁKS Łódź
1.83
Arka Gdynia
1.67
Chrobry Głogów
1.67
Polonia Warszawa
1.67
Warta Poznań
1.50
Pogoń Siedlce
1.33
Stal Mielec
1.33
Odra Opole
1.33
Nieciecza
1.17
Ruch Chorzów
1.17
Lechia Gdansk
1.17
Puszcza Niepołomice
1.00
Unia Skierniewice
1.00
Polonia Bytom
1.00
Podbeskidzie
0.83
Stal Rzeszów
0.83
Miedz Legnica is 0.50 points better than Arka Gdynia in terms of average points per game (2.17 vs 1.67).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Polonia Bytom
2.00
Warta Poznań
1.83
Stal Mielec
1.83
Chrobry Głogów
1.67
Polonia Warszawa
1.67
Miedz Legnica
1.67
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
1.67
ŁKS Łódź
1.67
Arka Gdynia
1.50
Nieciecza
1.50
Podbeskidzie
1.33
Pogoń Siedlce
1.17
Lechia Gdansk
1.17
Odra Opole
1.00
Puszcza Niepołomice
0.83
Unia Skierniewice
0.83
Stal Rzeszów
0.67
Ruch Chorzów
0.50
Miedz Legnica is 0.17 goals better than Arka Gdynia in terms of goals scored per game (1.67 vs 1.50).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Miedz Legnica
0.50
Arka Gdynia
0.83
Chrobry Głogów
0.83
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
0.83
ŁKS Łódź
0.83
Pogoń Siedlce
1.00
Odra Opole
1.00
Puszcza Niepołomice
1.17
Ruch Chorzów
1.17
Polonia Warszawa
1.33
Unia Skierniewice
1.50
Warta Poznań
1.67
Nieciecza
1.67
Podbeskidzie
1.67
Lechia Gdansk
1.83
Stal Rzeszów
2.00
Stal Mielec
2.17
Polonia Bytom
2.50
Miedz Legnica is 0.33 goals better than Arka Gdynia in terms of goals conceded per game (0.50 vs 0.83).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Miedz Legnica or Draw✓ Hit
77.2%
Avg Implied 67.9% · @ 1.36
Edge
+9.4%
49%
29%
23%
covers Miedz Legnica + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
1.40
Betano
1.40
888Sport
1.36
William Hil
1.36
Superbet
1.36
Miedz Legnica or Arka Gdynia✓ Hit
71.3%
Avg Implied 73.0% · @ 1.26
Edge
-1.7%
49%
29%
23%
covers Miedz Legnica + Arka Gdynia
Best 5 market prices
888Sport
1.30
William Hil
1.30
Betano
1.29
BetVictor
1.29
Bet365
1.28
Draw or Arka Gdynia✗ Miss
51.5%
Avg Implied 59.1% · @ 1.56
Edge
-7.7%
49%
29%
23%
covers Draw + Arka Gdynia
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.65
Bet365
1.62
888Sport
1.62
William Hil
1.62
Superbet
1.55
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Miedz Legnica over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
77.3%
@ 1.20-0.5%
Under
22.7%
@ 4.21+0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.22
Bet365
1.20
Pinnacle
1.20
Superbet
1.19
1xBet
1.19
Under
Pinnacle
4.35
Bet365
4.33
BetVictor
4.20
Superbet
4.20
1xBet
4.10
Miedz Legnica over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
43.7%
@ 1.98-3.2%
Under
56.3%
@ 1.75+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.12
BetVictor
2.00
Marathonbet
1.98
Unibet
1.96
1xBet
1.95
Under
Bet365
1.80
Betano
1.80
Superbet
1.77
1xBet
1.76
Marathonbet
1.74
Miedz Legnica over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
18.7%
@ 4.04-4.2%
Under
81.3%
@ 1.20+4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
4.33
1xBet
4.10
Bet365
4.00
Superbet
4.00
Marathonbet
3.98
Under
Betano
1.24
Bet365
1.22
Superbet
1.20
Marathonbet
1.18
BetVictor
1.18
Miedz Legnica over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
6.4%
@ 9.25-3.8%
Under
93.6%
@ 1.04+3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
11.00
1xBet
9.70
Superbet
8.80
Betano
7.50
Under
Betano
1.07
Bet365
1.05
Superbet
1.04
1xBet
1.01
Arka Gdynia over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
61.1%
@ 1.27-12.2%
Under
38.9%
@ 3.48+12.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.29
Bet365
1.28
Superbet
1.27
Betano
1.27
Pinnacle
1.26
Under
Pinnacle
3.66
BetVictor
3.50
Betano
3.50
Bet365
3.50
Superbet
3.40
Arka Gdynia over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
24.4%
@ 2.30-15.9%
Under
75.6%
@ 1.55+15.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.42
BetVictor
2.38
1xBet
2.31
Marathonbet
2.31
Betano
2.30
Under
Bet365
1.57
Betano
1.57
Unibet
1.57
Superbet
1.55
Pinnacle
1.55
Arka Gdynia over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
7.0%
@ 5.28-10.5%
Under
93.0%
@ 1.12+10.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
5.60
Bet365
5.50
BetVictor
5.50
Marathonbet
5.05
Betano
5.00
Under
Betano
1.15
Superbet
1.14
Bet365
1.14
BetVictor
1.11
Marathonbet
1.10
Arka Gdynia over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
1.6%
@ 12.25-6.2%
Under
98.4%
@ 1.03+6.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
15.00
Superbet
12.00
Betano
9.75
Under
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.03
Superbet
1.02
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Miedz Legnica, so a minus line means Miedz Legnica give that many goals of a start and Arka Gdynia receive them. At -1, Miedz Legnica must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Miedz Legnica win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Miedz Legnica)Actual: Draw
Miedz Legnica -2
10.0%
@ 8.37-0.8%
Draw -2
15.1%
@ 6.32+0.9%
Arka Gdynia +2
74.9%
@ 1.20-0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
9.00
Superbet
8.20
Marathonbet
7.90
Draw
Bet365
6.50
Marathonbet
6.25
Superbet
6.20
Away
Bet365
1.22
Superbet
1.20
Marathonbet
1.17
Handicap -1 (Miedz Legnica)Actual: Miedz Legnica
Miedz Legnica -1
25.1%
@ 4.09+3.7%
Draw -1
23.4%
@ 4.01+1.6%
Arka Gdynia +1
51.5%
@ 1.54-5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
4.33
Betfair
4.33
Superbet
4.10
Marathonbet
4.00
Unibet
3.70
Draw
Bet365
4.33
Betfair
4.20
Superbet
4.10
Marathonbet
3.98
Unibet
3.45
Away
Bet365
1.62
Superbet
1.59
Betfair
1.53
Marathonbet
1.53
Unibet
1.44
Handicap +1 (Miedz Legnica)Actual: Miedz Legnica
Miedz Legnica +1
77.2%
@ 1.36+13.3%
Draw +1
14.4%
@ 4.47-5.0%
Arka Gdynia -1
8.3%
@ 5.24-8.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Superbet
1.39
Unibet
1.36
Bet365
1.36
Marathonbet
1.33
Draw
Bet365
5.00
Superbet
4.70
Marathonbet
4.55
Unibet
3.65
Away
Bet365
6.00
Marathonbet
5.50
Superbet
5.35
Unibet
4.10
Handicap +2 (Miedz Legnica)Actual: Miedz Legnica
Miedz Legnica +2
91.7%
@ 1.10+13.4%
Draw +2
6.1%
@ 6.70-6.8%
Arka Gdynia -2
2.2%
@ 9.78-6.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.11
Marathonbet
1.10
Draw
Bet365
8.50
Marathonbet
4.90
Away
Bet365
13.00
Marathonbet
6.55
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Miedz Legnica
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.60
0.83
0.78
0.33
0.33
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (23)
0.65
0.57
0.86
0.71
0.33
0.33
vs Weaker (5)
0.60
0.60
0.67
1.00
0.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Arka Gdynia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Arka Gdynia
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.93
0.94
0.62
0.14
1.29
vs Stronger (7)
0.14
1.14
0.25
1.50
0.00
0.67
vs Similar (21)
0.71
0.86
1.17
0.33
0.11
1.56
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
1.00
-
-
0.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Miedz Legnica) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
69.4%
@ 1.31-1.4%
Under 0.5
30.6%
@ 3.17+1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.36
1xBet
1.31
Marathonbet
1.31
Superbet
1.31
BetVictor
1.30
Under
Bet365
3.40
William Hil
3.30
Betfair
3.25
BetVictor
3.20
Superbet
3.20
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
30.3%
@ 2.42-7.9%
Under 1.5
69.7%
@ 1.50+7.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.56
Bet365
2.50
Betfair
2.50
Betano
2.47
Superbet
2.40
Under
Pinnacle
1.51
Superbet
1.51
Bet365
1.50
BetVictor
1.50
Betano
1.50
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
9.7%
@ 5.70-6.7%
Under 2.5
90.3%
@ 1.11+6.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
6.50
Bet365
6.00
William Hil
5.80
Betfair
5.50
1xBet
5.50
Under
Betano
1.13
Betfair
1.13
William Hil
1.12
Superbet
1.12
Bet365
1.12
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Miedz Legnica over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
35.6%
@ 1.84-14.7%
Under
64.4%
@ 1.86+14.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.87
Betano
1.85
Marathonbet
1.83
1xBet
1.83
Superbet
1.82
Under
Pinnacle
1.92
Superbet
1.88
Betano
1.85
Marathonbet
1.83
1xBet
1.83
Miedz Legnica over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
7.7%
@ 5.05-10.6%
Under
92.3%
@ 1.13+10.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.20
1xBet
5.20
Superbet
5.00
Betano
4.80
Under
Betano
1.15
Superbet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.11
1xBet
1.11
Miedz Legnica over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.8%
@ 12.88-6.5%
Under
99.2%
@ 1.01+6.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
16.00
Betano
9.75
Under
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
Arka Gdynia over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
52.0%
@ 2.04+6.6%
Under
48.0%
@ 1.69-6.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.10
Betano
2.07
Marathonbet
2.01
1xBet
2.01
Superbet
2.00
Under
Superbet
1.72
Pinnacle
1.71
Marathonbet
1.68
1xBet
1.68
Betano
1.67
Arka Gdynia over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
14.7%
@ 6.12-0.3%
Under
85.3%
@ 1.08+0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
6.30
1xBet
6.30
Superbet
6.00
Betano
5.90
Under
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.09
Marathonbet
1.07
1xBet
1.07
Arka Gdynia over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
4.1%
@ 15.50-2.0%
Under
95.9%
@ 1.01+2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
20.00
Betano
11.00
Under
Betano
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Miedz Legnica
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.60
0.89
0.44
1.08
0.83
vs Stronger (2)
1.50
2.00
1.00
2.00
2.00
2.00
vs Similar (23)
0.91
0.52
0.86
0.43
1.00
0.67
vs Weaker (5)
1.00
0.40
1.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Arka Gdynia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Arka Gdynia
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.90
0.81
0.69
0.57
1.14
vs Stronger (7)
0.86
1.43
1.25
1.00
0.33
2.00
vs Similar (21)
0.71
0.81
0.67
0.58
0.78
1.11
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Miedz Legnica) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
77.0%
@ 1.18-1.7%
Under 0.5
23.0%
@ 4.34+1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.18
Betano
1.18
Bet365
1.18
Superbet
1.18
Under
Bet365
4.50
Superbet
4.30
1xBet
4.30
Betano
4.25
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
40.2%
@ 1.86-9.4%
Under 1.5
59.8%
@ 1.83+9.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.89
Marathonbet
1.89
Superbet
1.88
Bet365
1.83
Betano
1.82
Under
Betano
1.88
Superbet
1.83
Bet365
1.83
Marathonbet
1.81
1xBet
1.81
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
17.8%
@ 3.65-7.7%
Under 2.5
82.2%
@ 1.25+7.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
3.80
Bet365
3.75
Superbet
3.70
Betano
3.35
Under
Betano
1.28
Bet365
1.25
Superbet
1.24
1xBet
1.21
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Miedz Legnica over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
44.7%
@ 1.58-13.9%
Under
55.3%
@ 2.24+13.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.59
Superbet
1.59
Betano
1.57
Under
Betano
2.27
1xBet
2.22
Superbet
2.22
Miedz Legnica over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
12.1%
@ 3.71-12.7%
Under
87.9%
@ 1.23+12.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
3.80
Superbet
3.80
Marathonbet
3.74
Betano
3.50
Under
Betano
1.26
Superbet
1.22
1xBet
1.21
Marathonbet
1.21
Miedz Legnica over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
3.8%
@ 8.85-6.7%
Under
96.2%
@ 1.04+6.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
10.00
Betano
7.70
Under
Betano
1.05
Superbet
1.03
Arka Gdynia over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
56.3%
@ 1.73+2.7%
Under
43.7%
@ 1.99-2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.77
Marathonbet
1.73
Superbet
1.73
Betano
1.67
Under
Betano
2.07
Superbet
2.00
Marathonbet
1.95
1xBet
1.94
Arka Gdynia over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
21.4%
@ 4.54+1.1%
Under
78.6%
@ 1.16-1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
4.80
Marathonbet
4.65
Superbet
4.55
Betano
4.15
Under
Betano
1.19
Superbet
1.16
Marathonbet
1.14
1xBet
1.13
Arka Gdynia over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
4.7%
@ 11.00-3.8%
Under
95.3%
@ 1.02+3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
13.00
Betano
9.00
Under
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.02
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
99.2%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
-
-
-
+6.5%
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
98.8%
1.01
Betano
1.02
1xBet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
Superbet
1.01
-
+4.3%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
98.4%
1.03
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.03
Superbet
1.02
-
-
+6.2%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
96.3%
1.04
Betano
1.07
Bet365
1.06
888Sport
1.05
Superbet
1.05
Betfair
1.05
+7.0%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
96.2%
1.04
Betano
1.05
Superbet
1.03
-
-
-
+6.7%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
95.9%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.0%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
95.3%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.02
-
-
-
+3.8%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
93.6%
1.04
Betano
1.07
Bet365
1.05
Superbet
1.04
1xBet
1.01
-
+3.8%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
93.0%
1.12
Betano
1.15
Superbet
1.14
Bet365
1.14
BetVictor
1.11
Marathonbet
1.10
+10.5%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
92.3%
1.13
Betano
1.15
Superbet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.11
1xBet
1.11
-
+10.6%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
91.7%
1.10
Bet365
1.11
Marathonbet
1.10
-
-
-
+13.4%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
90.3%
1.11
Betano
1.13
Betfair
1.13
William Hil
1.12
Superbet
1.12
Bet365
1.12
+6.7%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
90.0%
1.16
Betano
1.18
888Sport
1.17
Pinnacle
1.17
Betfair
1.17
Bet365
1.17
+9.5%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
87.9%
1.23
Betano
1.26
Superbet
1.22
1xBet
1.21
Marathonbet
1.21
-
+12.7%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
85.3%
1.08
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.09
Marathonbet
1.07
1xBet
1.07
-
+0.3%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
82.2%
1.25
Betano
1.28
Bet365
1.25
Superbet
1.24
1xBet
1.21
-
+7.7%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
81.3%
1.20
Betano
1.24
Bet365
1.22
Superbet
1.20
Marathonbet
1.18
BetVictor
1.18
+4.2%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
78.6%
1.16
Betano
1.19
Superbet
1.16
Marathonbet
1.14
1xBet
1.13
-
-1.1%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
77.3%
1.20
Betano
1.22
Bet365
1.20
Pinnacle
1.20
Superbet
1.19
1xBet
1.19
-0.5%
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
77.3%
1.43
Betano
1.45
Betfair
1.44
888Sport
1.44
Superbet
1.44
Bet365
1.44
+12.5%
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
77.2%
1.36
Betfair
1.40
Betano
1.40
888Sport
1.36
William Hil
1.36
Superbet
1.36
+9.4%
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
77.2%
1.36
Superbet
1.39
Unibet
1.36
Bet365
1.36
Marathonbet
1.33
-
+13.3%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
77.0%
1.18
1xBet
1.18
Betano
1.18
Bet365
1.18
Superbet
1.18
-
-1.7%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 goals
75.6%
1.55
Bet365
1.57
Betano
1.57
Unibet
1.57
Superbet
1.55
Pinnacle
1.55
+15.9%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
74.9%
1.20
Bet365
1.22
Superbet
1.20
Marathonbet
1.17
-
-
-0.1%
✗ Miss
Home or Away
71.3%
1.26
888Sport
1.30
William Hil
1.30
Betano
1.29
BetVictor
1.29
Bet365
1.28
-1.7%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
71.0%
1.20
Betano
1.22
Pinnacle
1.21
Betfair
1.20
BetVictor
1.20
888Sport
1.20
-6.4%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Miedz Legnica · 2022/23
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Ángelo Henríquez21%
Chuca20%
Luciano Narsingh17%
Maciej Śliwa12%
Kamil Drygas12%
Giannis Masouras7%
Szymon Matuszek7%
Nemanja Mijušković7%
Koldo Obieta Alberdi7%
Andrzej Niewulis7%
Dawid Drachal6%
Santiago Naveda6%
Olaf Kobacki4%
Maxime Dominguez3%
Jerónimo Cacciabue0%
Dimitar Velkovski0%
Jens Martin Gammelby0%
Stefanos Kapino0%
Jurich Carolina0%
Kamil Zapolnik0%
Hubert Matynia0%
Damian Tront0%
Mateusz Abramowicz0%
Levent Gülen0%
Mehdi Lehaire0%
Jon Aurtenetxe0%
Carlos Julio Martínez0%
Paweł Lenarcik0%
Michael Kostka0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Carlos Julio Martínez50%
Maxime Dominguez34%
Jens Martin Gammelby33%
Nemanja Mijušković32%
Damian Tront30%
Levent Gülen30%
Kamil Drygas29%
Ángelo Henríquez28%
Jon Aurtenetxe25%
Jurich Carolina22%
Dimitar Velkovski21%
Szymon Matuszek21%
Olaf Kobacki21%
Andrzej Niewulis20%
Dawid Drachal19%
Hubert Matynia18%
Koldo Obieta Alberdi17%
Giannis Masouras14%
Santiago Naveda12%
Michael Kostka11%
Jerónimo Cacciabue9%
Kamil Zapolnik8%
Luciano Narsingh7%
Chuca7%
Mateusz Abramowicz5%
Stefanos Kapino0%
Maciej Śliwa0%
Mehdi Lehaire0%
Paweł Lenarcik0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Dimitar Velkovski21%
Jens Martin Gammelby17%
Olaf Kobacki17%
Maxime Dominguez14%
Hubert Matynia14%
Damian Tront10%
Carlos Julio Martínez8%
Szymon Matuszek7%
Jurich Carolina4%
Nemanja Mijušković4%
Ángelo Henríquez3%
Luciano Narsingh3%
Koldo Obieta Alberdi3%
Jerónimo Cacciabue0%
Stefanos Kapino0%
Giannis Masouras0%
Maciej Śliwa0%
Kamil Zapolnik0%
Kamil Drygas0%
Andrzej Niewulis0%
Mateusz Abramowicz0%
Levent Gülen0%
Mehdi Lehaire0%
Jon Aurtenetxe0%
Chuca0%
Paweł Lenarcik0%
Santiago Naveda0%
Michael Kostka0%
Dawid Drachal0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Ángelo Henríquez21%
Kamil Drygas18%
Olaf Kobacki8%
Giannis Masouras7%
Chuca7%
Levent Gülen4%
Michael Kostka4%
Nemanja Mijušković4%
Luciano Narsingh3%
Koldo Obieta Alberdi3%
Jerónimo Cacciabue0%
Dimitar Velkovski0%
Jens Martin Gammelby0%
Stefanos Kapino0%
Jurich Carolina0%
Maciej Śliwa0%
Szymon Matuszek0%
Kamil Zapolnik0%
Hubert Matynia0%
Andrzej Niewulis0%
Damian Tront0%
Mateusz Abramowicz0%
Maxime Dominguez0%
Mehdi Lehaire0%
Jon Aurtenetxe0%
Carlos Julio Martínez0%
Paweł Lenarcik0%
Santiago Naveda0%
Dawid Drachal0%
Arka Gdynia · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Vladislavs Gutkovskis25%
Oskar Kubiak21%
Nazariy Rusyn17%
Eduardo Espiau14%
Dawid Kocyła10%
Sebastian Kerk9%
Marc Navarro7%
Dawid Abramowicz7%
Kamil Jakubczyk6%
Michał Marcjanik6%
Luis Perea5%
Kike Hermoso5%
Dawid Gojny5%
Aurélien Nguiamba0%
Tornike Gaprindashvili0%
Patryk Szysz0%
Michał Rzuchowski0%
Serafin Szota0%
Szymon Sobczak0%
Damian Węglarz0%
João Oliveira0%
Dominick Zator0%
Julien Celestine0%
Jędrzej Grobelny0%
Alassane Sidibe0%
Diego Percan0%
Hide Vitalucci0%
Marcel Predenkiewicz0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Julien Celestine62%
Kamil Jakubczyk29%
Tornike Gaprindashvili24%
Dawid Gojny23%
Diego Percan22%
Aurélien Nguiamba21%
Kike Hermoso19%
Alassane Sidibe19%
Nazariy Rusyn17%
Luis Perea16%
Marc Navarro14%
Dawid Abramowicz14%
Jędrzej Grobelny14%
Vladislavs Gutkovskis12%
Michał Marcjanik12%
Michał Rzuchowski11%
Dominick Zator11%
Eduardo Espiau10%
Serafin Szota10%
Sebastian Kerk9%
Oskar Kubiak7%
Dawid Kocyła6%
Patryk Szysz0%
Szymon Sobczak0%
Damian Węglarz0%
João Oliveira0%
Hide Vitalucci0%
Marcel Predenkiewicz0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Sebastian Kerk18%
Marc Navarro14%
Diego Percan11%
Kike Hermoso10%
Dawid Abramowicz7%
Oskar Kubiak7%
Vladislavs Gutkovskis6%
Tornike Gaprindashvili6%
Luis Perea5%
Dawid Gojny5%
Patryk Szysz4%
Kamil Jakubczyk3%
Nazariy Rusyn0%
Aurélien Nguiamba0%
Michał Marcjanik0%
Michał Rzuchowski0%
Serafin Szota0%
Szymon Sobczak0%
Damian Węglarz0%
João Oliveira0%
Dominick Zator0%
Julien Celestine0%
Dawid Kocyła0%
Jędrzej Grobelny0%
Alassane Sidibe0%
Eduardo Espiau0%
Hide Vitalucci0%
Marcel Predenkiewicz0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Vladislavs Gutkovskis31%
Oskar Kubiak14%
Nazariy Rusyn13%
Dawid Abramowicz7%
Kamil Jakubczyk6%
Sebastian Kerk6%
Kike Hermoso5%
Eduardo Espiau3%
Dawid Kocyła3%
Marc Navarro0%
Aurélien Nguiamba0%
Tornike Gaprindashvili0%
Michał Marcjanik0%
Patryk Szysz0%
Dawid Gojny0%
Michał Rzuchowski0%
Serafin Szota0%
Szymon Sobczak0%
Damian Węglarz0%
Luis Perea0%
João Oliveira0%
Dominick Zator0%
Julien Celestine0%
Jędrzej Grobelny0%
Alassane Sidibe0%
Diego Percan0%
Hide Vitalucci0%
Marcel Predenkiewicz0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LG (20)
€22m
AG (23)
€5m
PW (25)
€5m
ML (24)
€4m
ŁŁ (22)
€4m
OO (24)
€4m
RC (20)
€4m
NIE (16)
€4m
SR (18)
€3m
PB (21)
€3m
CG (20)
€3m
PN (16)
€3m
PGM (15)
€2m
SM (16)
€2m
PS (18)
€2m
WP (6)
€1m
POD (5)
€1m
US (3)
€0m
Miedz Legnica's squad is €1m less valuable than Arka Gdynia's (€4m vs €5m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LG (8)
€15m
PW (13)
€3m
AG (9)
€2m
OO (8)
€2m
ŁŁ (7)
€2m
NIE (7)
€2m
ML (7)
€1m
SM (8)
€1m
RC (7)
€1m
SR (9)
€1m
PB (8)
€1m
PN (6)
€1m
CG (7)
€1m
PS (8)
€1m
PGM (4)
€0m
POD (1)
€0m
WP (0)
€0m
US (0)
€0m
Miedz Legnica and Arka Gdynia have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LG (3)
€5m
ML (10)
€2m
NIE (5)
€2m
OO (8)
€1m
PGM (6)
€1m
AG (5)
€1m
PB (8)
€1m
ŁŁ (7)
€1m
RC (5)
€1m
WP (3)
€1m
CG (6)
€1m
PN (4)
€0m
PW (2)
€0m
SR (2)
€0m
PS (3)
€0m
US (2)
€0m
POD (2)
€0m
SM (2)
€0m
Miedz Legnica and Arka Gdynia have a similar midfield value (both €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LG (9)
€3m
AG (9)
€2m
PW (10)
€2m
ŁŁ (8)
€2m
CG (7)
€1m
SR (7)
€1m
RC (8)
€1m
ML (7)
€1m
PN (6)
€1m
OO (8)
€1m
PB (5)
€1m
PGM (5)
€1m
PS (7)
€1m
NIE (4)
€1m
SM (6)
€1m
WP (3)
€0m
POD (2)
€0m
US (1)
€0m
Miedz Legnica and Arka Gdynia have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Poland: I Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Poland: I Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
ŁKS Łódź
Chrobry Głogów
Polonia Warszawa
Warta Poznań
Pogoń Siedlce
Odra Opole
Stal Mielec
Nieciecza
Lechia Gdansk
Ruch Chorzów
Puszcza Niepołomice
Polonia Bytom
Unia Skierniewice
Podbeskidzie
Stal Rzeszów