Miedz Legnica are clear favourites, with the model assigning a 67 % chance to a home win. Their recent 2-game winning streak and a 2-0 victory over Arka Gdynia underline a solid home form, scoring 1.5 and conceding 1.5 goals against weaker opposition. Warta Poznań, playing away against a stronger side, has struggled, averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.65 conceded. The model therefore expects a high-scoring affair, with an average of 3.4 goals and a 22 % probability that the total will be exactly three. The single most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a 9.6 % chance. Home win, draw and away win probabilities are 67 %, 19 % and 14 % respectively. Suggested picks include Away under 2.5 HT goals (99 % probability, 10 % edge), Away under 3.5 goals (97.9 % probability, 7 % edge), Under 7.5 (97.5 %), Away under 2.5 2H goals (97.4 % probability, 11 % edge), Home under 2.5 HT goals (95.3 %), Under 6.5 (93.9 % probability, 4 % edge), Away under 1.5 HT goals (92.6 % probability, 15 % edge) and Home under 2.5 2H goals (92.5 % probability, 2 % edge).
Results analysis
Miedz Legnica’s 3-game winning streak continued as they secured a 2-1 victory over Warta Poznań, matching the model’s predicted final score and confirming the home win call. The model’s favourite, Home win, with a 67% probability, proved correct. Every suggested selection hit the mark: Away under 2.5 HT goals at 98.5%, Away under 3.5 goals at 97.8%, Under 7.5 at 97.5%, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 97.0%, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 95.9%, Under 6.5 at 93.8%, Away under 1.5 HT goals at 91.6%, and Away under 2.5 goals at 91.2%. The model’s predictions were spot on across the board.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Miedz Legnica win✓ Hit
66.9%
Avg Implied 46.4% · @ 1.96
Edge
+20.5%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
2.03
Pinnacle
2.02
Superbet
2.02
William Hil
2.00
Betano
1.98
Draw✗ Miss
19.3%
Avg Implied 26.5% · @ 3.44
Edge
-7.2%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
3.60
Unibet
3.60
BetVictor
3.60
Superbet
3.50
Dafabet
3.50
Warta Poznań win✗ Miss
13.8%
Avg Implied 27.1% · @ 3.37
Edge
-13.3%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.72
Betano
3.60
Unibet
3.50
1xBet
3.46
Dafabet
3.40
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Miedz Legnica
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.60
1.20
1.72
1.22
1.42
1.17
vs Stronger (2)
2.00
3.00
2.00
3.00
2.00
3.00
vs Similar (24)
1.58
1.04
1.73
1.07
1.33
1.00
vs Weaker (4)
1.50
1.25
1.50
1.50
1.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
20% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Warta Poznań) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Warta Poznań
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
1.53
0.47
1.27
1.07
1.80
vs Stronger (29)
0.76
1.59
0.43
1.36
1.07
1.80
vs Similar (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Miedz Legnica) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
86.7%
@ 1.18+8.0%
Under 1.5
13.3%
@ 4.37-8.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.21
Betfair
1.20
Betano
1.20
Superbet
1.18
Bet365
1.18
Under
BetVictor
4.50
Bet365
4.50
Betfair
4.50
Superbet
4.35
Pinnacle
4.34
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
67.1%
@ 1.59+8.9%
Under 2.5
32.9%
@ 2.22-8.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.65
Pinnacle
1.62
Superbet
1.61
Betano
1.60
Betfair
1.60
Under
Pinnacle
2.29
Unibet
2.28
Betano
2.25
1xBet
2.21
Marathonbet
2.21
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
45.4%
@ 2.44+7.5%
Under 3.5
54.6%
@ 1.49-7.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.63
Pinnacle
2.61
Bet365
2.50
Superbet
2.47
Betano
2.42
Under
Betano
1.52
Unibet
1.50
Bet365
1.50
Pinnacle
1.49
BetVictor
1.49
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
59.7%
@ 1.51-1.2%
No
40.3%
@ 2.36+1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
William Hil
1.55
Superbet
1.54
Bet365
1.53
Betfair
1.53
BetVictor
1.50
No
BetVictor
2.40
Betano
2.40
1xBet
2.38
Bet365
2.38
Betfair
2.38
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-1 ✓
9.6%@ 7.89+3.9%
2-0
9.2%@ 10.40+4.9%
1-1
8.7%@ 6.54+1.8%
3-1
7.7%@ 13.08+4.3%
3-0
7.4%@ 17.64+4.9%
1-0
6.8%@ 9.08+1.9%
2-2
5.0%@ 10.73+0.8%
4-1
4.7%@ 27.62+3.0%
Miedz Legnica goals ↓
Warta Poznań goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.9%
2.5%
1.7%
0.6%
0.2%
1
6.8%
8.7%
4.1%
1.4%
0.4%
2
9.2%
9.6%
5.0%
1.7%
0.4%
3
7.4%
7.7%
4.0%
1.4%
0.4%
4
4.5%
4.7%
2.4%
0.8%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Miedz Legnica goals (down), columns = Warta Poznań goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Miedz Legnica
2.17
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
2.00
ŁKS Łódź
1.83
Arka Gdynia
1.67
Chrobry Głogów
1.67
Polonia Warszawa
1.67
Warta Poznań
1.50
Pogoń Siedlce
1.33
Stal Mielec
1.33
Odra Opole
1.33
Nieciecza
1.17
Ruch Chorzów
1.17
Lechia Gdansk
1.17
Puszcza Niepołomice
1.00
Unia Skierniewice
1.00
Polonia Bytom
1.00
Podbeskidzie
0.83
Stal Rzeszów
0.83
Miedz Legnica is 0.67 points better than Warta Poznań in terms of average points per game (2.17 vs 1.50).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Polonia Bytom
2.00
Warta Poznań
1.83
Stal Mielec
1.83
Chrobry Głogów
1.67
Polonia Warszawa
1.67
Miedz Legnica
1.67
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
1.67
ŁKS Łódź
1.67
Arka Gdynia
1.50
Nieciecza
1.50
Podbeskidzie
1.33
Pogoń Siedlce
1.17
Lechia Gdansk
1.17
Odra Opole
1.00
Puszcza Niepołomice
0.83
Unia Skierniewice
0.83
Stal Rzeszów
0.67
Ruch Chorzów
0.50
Miedz Legnica is 0.17 goals worse than Warta Poznań in terms of goals scored per game (1.67 vs 1.83).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Miedz Legnica
0.50
Arka Gdynia
0.83
Chrobry Głogów
0.83
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
0.83
ŁKS Łódź
0.83
Pogoń Siedlce
1.00
Odra Opole
1.00
Puszcza Niepołomice
1.17
Ruch Chorzów
1.17
Polonia Warszawa
1.33
Unia Skierniewice
1.50
Warta Poznań
1.67
Nieciecza
1.67
Podbeskidzie
1.67
Lechia Gdansk
1.83
Stal Rzeszów
2.00
Stal Mielec
2.17
Polonia Bytom
2.50
Miedz Legnica is 1.17 goals better than Warta Poznań in terms of goals conceded per game (0.50 vs 1.67).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Miedz Legnica or Draw✓ Hit
86.2%
Avg Implied 72.9% · @ 1.26
Edge
+13.3%
67%
19%
14%
covers Miedz Legnica + Draw
Best 5 market prices
BetVictor
1.30
William Hil
1.30
Betano
1.29
Superbet
1.28
Bet365
1.28
Miedz Legnica or Warta Poznań✓ Hit
80.7%
Avg Implied 74.2% · @ 1.24
Edge
+6.5%
67%
19%
14%
covers Miedz Legnica + Warta Poznań
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
1.28
Betano
1.28
Superbet
1.26
William Hil
1.25
Marathonbet
1.24
Draw or Warta Poznań✗ Miss
33.1%
Avg Implied 52.9% · @ 1.74
Edge
-19.8%
67%
19%
14%
covers Draw + Warta Poznań
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.83
Unibet
1.76
William Hil
1.75
SBO
1.75
BetVictor
1.73
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Miedz Legnica over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
91.1%
@ 1.14+9.9%
Under
8.9%
@ 4.92-9.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.17
Superbet
1.15
BetVictor
1.14
Bet365
1.14
1xBet
1.12
Under
Bet365
5.50
1xBet
4.90
BetVictor
4.80
Betano
4.70
Superbet
4.70
Miedz Legnica over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
69.5%
@ 1.75+16.7%
Under
30.5%
@ 1.96-16.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.81
Superbet
1.78
BetVictor
1.78
Marathonbet
1.77
1xBet
1.77
Under
Unibet
2.02
Betano
2.00
Bet365
2.00
Pinnacle
1.99
Marathonbet
1.94
Miedz Legnica over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
43.5%
@ 3.39+16.1%
Under
56.5%
@ 1.28-16.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
3.60
Pinnacle
3.58
Superbet
3.45
Bet365
3.40
Marathonbet
3.28
Under
Betano
1.32
Bet365
1.30
1xBet
1.30
Superbet
1.27
Pinnacle
1.27
Miedz Legnica over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
22.5%
@ 7.15+9.4%
Under
77.5%
@ 1.08-9.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
8.00
Superbet
7.30
1xBet
7.00
Betano
6.30
Under
Betano
1.10
Bet365
1.08
1xBet
1.07
Superbet
1.06
Warta Poznań over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
64.7%
@ 1.29-7.3%
Under
35.3%
@ 3.32+7.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.30
1xBet
1.30
Bet365
1.30
Superbet
1.29
BetVictor
1.29
Under
Pinnacle
3.41
Bet365
3.40
Betano
3.30
BetVictor
3.30
Superbet
3.30
Warta Poznań over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
27.9%
@ 2.46-9.8%
Under
72.1%
@ 1.49+9.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.65
Bet365
2.50
Betano
2.45
1xBet
2.43
Marathonbet
2.43
Under
Betano
1.52
Bet365
1.50
BetVictor
1.50
Superbet
1.50
1xBet
1.48
Warta Poznań over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
8.8%
@ 5.78-7.2%
Under
91.2%
@ 1.10+7.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
6.50
1xBet
6.00
Marathonbet
5.60
Betano
5.60
BetVictor
5.50
Under
Betano
1.12
BetVictor
1.11
Superbet
1.11
Bet365
1.11
1xBet
1.09
Warta Poznań over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
2.2%
@ 13.92-4.7%
Under
97.8%
@ 1.02+4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
17.00
Superbet
14.00
Betano
10.75
Under
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
Superbet
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Miedz Legnica, so a minus line means Miedz Legnica give that many goals of a start and Warta Poznań receive them. At -1, Miedz Legnica must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Miedz Legnica win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Miedz Legnica)Actual: Warta Poznań
Miedz Legnica -2
25.8%
@ 6.75+12.5%
Draw -2
19.8%
@ 5.62+3.8%
Warta Poznań +2
54.4%
@ 1.27-16.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
7.00
Superbet
6.70
Marathonbet
6.55
Draw
Marathonbet
5.85
Superbet
5.50
Bet365
5.50
Away
Bet365
1.30
Superbet
1.27
Marathonbet
1.24
Handicap -1 (Miedz Legnica)Actual: Draw
Miedz Legnica -1
45.6%
@ 3.27+18.9%
Draw -1
21.4%
@ 3.78-1.7%
Warta Poznań +1
33.1%
@ 1.73-17.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
3.50
Bet365
3.40
Superbet
3.40
Marathonbet
3.34
Unibet
2.70
Draw
Marathonbet
4.05
Bet365
4.00
Superbet
3.90
Betfair
3.75
Unibet
3.20
Away
Unibet
1.76
Superbet
1.75
Betfair
1.73
Bet365
1.73
Marathonbet
1.68
Handicap +1 (Miedz Legnica)Actual: Miedz Legnica
Miedz Legnica +1
86.2%
@ 1.70+25.5%
Draw +1
8.7%
@ 4.92-12.2%
Warta Poznań -1
5.0%
@ 5.65-13.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
3.00
Superbet
1.30
Bet365
1.28
Marathonbet
1.23
Draw
Bet365
5.50
Marathonbet
5.40
Superbet
5.20
Betfair
3.60
Away
Bet365
7.50
Marathonbet
6.90
Superbet
6.30
Betfair
1.91
Handicap +2 (Miedz Legnica)Actual: Miedz Legnica
Miedz Legnica +2
95.0%
@ 3.21+36.5%
Draw +2
3.7%
@ 8.12-19.4%
Warta Poznań -2
1.4%
@ 10.16-17.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
5.35
Bet365
1.08
Draw
Bet365
11.00
Marathonbet
5.25
Away
Bet365
19.00
Marathonbet
1.33
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Miedz Legnica
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.60
0.83
0.78
0.33
0.33
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (24)
0.67
0.54
0.87
0.67
0.33
0.33
vs Weaker (4)
0.50
0.75
0.50
1.50
0.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Warta Poznań) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Warta Poznań
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.30
0.87
0.13
0.67
0.47
1.07
vs Stronger (29)
0.31
0.90
0.14
0.71
0.47
1.07
vs Similar (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Miedz Legnica) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
73.8%
@ 1.30+2.4%
Under 0.5
26.2%
@ 3.23-2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.34
William Hil
1.30
1xBet
1.30
Marathonbet
1.30
Betfair
1.29
Under
Bet365
3.50
William Hil
3.30
BetVictor
3.30
Superbet
3.30
Betfair
3.25
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
40.9%
@ 2.34+1.3%
Under 1.5
59.1%
@ 1.53-1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.49
Betano
2.40
William Hil
2.40
Bet365
2.38
Betfair
2.38
Under
Unibet
1.55
Superbet
1.54
Pinnacle
1.53
Betfair
1.53
Bet365
1.53
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
13.8%
@ 5.40-3.5%
Under 2.5
86.2%
@ 1.13+3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
5.80
BetVictor
5.75
Bet365
5.50
Betfair
5.50
1xBet
5.20
Under
Betano
1.14
Bet365
1.14
Superbet
1.13
Betfair
1.13
1xBet
1.12
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Miedz Legnica over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
54.4%
@ 1.72+0.6%
Under
45.6%
@ 2.01-0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.77
Marathonbet
1.73
Betano
1.72
Superbet
1.70
1xBet
1.69
Under
1xBet
2.05
Superbet
2.02
Pinnacle
2.01
Betano
2.00
Marathonbet
1.95
Miedz Legnica over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
16.2%
@ 4.39-4.7%
Under
83.8%
@ 1.17+4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.65
Superbet
4.35
1xBet
4.30
Betano
4.25
Under
Superbet
1.18
Betano
1.18
1xBet
1.16
Marathonbet
1.14
Miedz Legnica over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
4.1%
@ 11.00-4.4%
Under
95.9%
@ 1.02+4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
13.00
Betano
9.00
Under
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.02
Warta Poznań over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
38.1%
@ 2.14-5.3%
Under
61.9%
@ 1.64+5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.18
Betano
2.18
1xBet
2.14
Marathonbet
2.11
Superbet
2.10
Under
Superbet
1.66
Pinnacle
1.66
1xBet
1.63
Marathonbet
1.62
Betano
1.62
Warta Poznań over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
8.4%
@ 6.78-5.2%
Under
91.6%
@ 1.06+5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
7.10
1xBet
7.00
Superbet
6.60
Betano
6.40
Under
Betano
1.08
Superbet
1.08
1xBet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.05
Warta Poznań over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.5%
@ 17.12-4.1%
Under
98.5%
@ 1.01+4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
23.00
Betano
11.25
Under
Betano
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Miedz Legnica
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.60
0.89
0.44
1.08
0.83
vs Stronger (2)
1.50
2.00
1.00
2.00
2.00
2.00
vs Similar (24)
0.92
0.50
0.87
0.40
1.00
0.67
vs Weaker (4)
1.00
0.50
1.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Warta Poznań) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Warta Poznań
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.67
0.33
0.60
0.60
0.73
vs Stronger (29)
0.45
0.69
0.29
0.64
0.60
0.73
vs Similar (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Miedz Legnica) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
80.1%
@ 1.17+0.2%
Under 0.5
19.9%
@ 4.65-0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Betano
1.17
1xBet
1.15
Under
Bet365
5.00
1xBet
4.70
Superbet
4.45
Betano
4.45
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
48.2%
@ 1.79-3.5%
Under 1.5
51.8%
@ 1.91+3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.83
Bet365
1.80
Marathonbet
1.78
1xBet
1.78
Betano
1.75
Under
Betano
1.95
Marathonbet
1.92
1xBet
1.92
Bet365
1.91
Superbet
1.87
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
21.6%
@ 3.40-5.6%
Under 2.5
78.4%
@ 1.27+5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
3.55
Bet365
3.50
1xBet
3.40
Betano
3.15
Under
Betano
1.31
Bet365
1.28
Superbet
1.25
1xBet
1.25
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Miedz Legnica over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
63.7%
@ 1.57+4.2%
Under
36.3%
@ 2.31-4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.83
Superbet
1.50
1xBet
1.48
Betano
1.47
Under
Betano
2.50
1xBet
2.48
Superbet
2.42
Marathonbet
1.83
Miedz Legnica over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
24.5%
@ 3.25-3.9%
Under
75.5%
@ 1.29+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
3.40
Marathonbet
3.28
1xBet
3.20
Betano
3.10
Under
Betano
1.32
1xBet
1.29
Marathonbet
1.27
Superbet
1.27
Miedz Legnica over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
9.4%
@ 8.13-1.9%
Under
90.6%
@ 1.04+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
8.90
1xBet
8.70
Betano
6.80
Under
Betano
1.07
Superbet
1.04
1xBet
1.02
Warta Poznań over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
48.0%
@ 1.77-4.3%
Under
52.0%
@ 1.94+4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.82
Superbet
1.77
Marathonbet
1.76
Betano
1.72
Under
Betano
2.00
Superbet
1.95
Marathonbet
1.91
1xBet
1.88
Warta Poznań over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
12.8%
@ 4.80-6.4%
Under
87.2%
@ 1.14+6.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
5.10
Marathonbet
4.95
Superbet
4.75
Betano
4.40
Under
Betano
1.17
Superbet
1.15
1xBet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.12
Warta Poznań over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
3.0%
@ 10.63-5.9%
Under
97.0%
@ 1.03+5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
15.00
Betano
9.50
1xBet
7.40
Under
1xBet
1.05
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.5%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+4.1%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
97.8%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
Superbet
1.01
-
-
+4.7%
✓ Hit
Under 7.5
97.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.0%
1.03
1xBet
1.05
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
-
-
+5.9%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
95.9%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.02
-
-
-
+4.4%
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
93.8%
1.02
Betano
1.03
1xBet
1.02
Bet365
1.02
Superbet
1.01
-
-0.1%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
91.6%
1.06
Betano
1.08
Superbet
1.08
1xBet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.05
-
+5.2%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
91.2%
1.10
Betano
1.12
BetVictor
1.11
Superbet
1.11
Bet365
1.11
1xBet
1.09
+7.2%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
91.1%
1.14
Betano
1.17
Superbet
1.15
BetVictor
1.14
Bet365
1.14
1xBet
1.12
+9.9%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
90.6%
1.04
Betano
1.07
Superbet
1.04
1xBet
1.02
-
-
+1.9%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
87.2%
1.14
Betano
1.17
Superbet
1.15
1xBet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.12
-
+6.4%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
86.7%
1.18
Pinnacle
1.21
Betfair
1.20
Betano
1.20
Superbet
1.18
Bet365
1.18
+8.0%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
86.3%
1.05
Betano
1.08
Betfair
1.06
Bet365
1.06
Superbet
1.05
BetVictor
1.04
-2.1%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
86.2%
1.13
Betano
1.14
Bet365
1.14
Superbet
1.13
Betfair
1.13
1xBet
1.12
+3.5%
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
86.2%
1.26
BetVictor
1.30
William Hil
1.30
Betano
1.29
Superbet
1.28
Bet365
1.28
+13.3%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
83.8%
1.17
Superbet
1.18
Betano
1.18
1xBet
1.16
Marathonbet
1.14
-
+4.7%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
80.7%
1.24
Bet365
1.28
Betano
1.28
Superbet
1.26
William Hil
1.25
Marathonbet
1.24
+6.5%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
80.1%
1.17
Superbet
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Betano
1.17
1xBet
1.15
-
+0.2%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
78.4%
1.27
Betano
1.31
Bet365
1.28
Superbet
1.25
1xBet
1.25
-
+5.6%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
77.5%
1.08
Betano
1.10
Bet365
1.08
1xBet
1.07
Superbet
1.06
-
-9.4%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
75.5%
1.29
Betano
1.32
1xBet
1.29
Marathonbet
1.27
Superbet
1.27
-
+3.9%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 HT goals
73.8%
1.30
Betano
1.34
William Hil
1.30
1xBet
1.30
Marathonbet
1.30
Betfair
1.29
+2.4%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
73.4%
1.18
Betano
1.21
Betfair
1.20
Unibet
1.19
Superbet
1.18
Bet365
1.18
-5.2%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 goals
72.1%
1.49
Betano
1.52
Bet365
1.50
BetVictor
1.50
Superbet
1.50
1xBet
1.48
+9.8%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Miedz Legnica · 2022/23
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Ángelo Henríquez21%
Chuca20%
Luciano Narsingh17%
Maciej Śliwa12%
Kamil Drygas12%
Giannis Masouras7%
Szymon Matuszek7%
Nemanja Mijušković7%
Koldo Obieta Alberdi7%
Andrzej Niewulis7%
Dawid Drachal6%
Santiago Naveda6%
Olaf Kobacki4%
Maxime Dominguez3%
Jerónimo Cacciabue0%
Dimitar Velkovski0%
Jens Martin Gammelby0%
Stefanos Kapino0%
Jurich Carolina0%
Kamil Zapolnik0%
Hubert Matynia0%
Damian Tront0%
Mateusz Abramowicz0%
Levent Gülen0%
Mehdi Lehaire0%
Jon Aurtenetxe0%
Carlos Julio Martínez0%
Paweł Lenarcik0%
Michael Kostka0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Carlos Julio Martínez50%
Maxime Dominguez34%
Jens Martin Gammelby33%
Nemanja Mijušković32%
Damian Tront30%
Levent Gülen30%
Kamil Drygas29%
Ángelo Henríquez28%
Jon Aurtenetxe25%
Jurich Carolina22%
Dimitar Velkovski21%
Szymon Matuszek21%
Olaf Kobacki21%
Andrzej Niewulis20%
Dawid Drachal19%
Hubert Matynia18%
Koldo Obieta Alberdi17%
Giannis Masouras14%
Santiago Naveda12%
Michael Kostka11%
Jerónimo Cacciabue9%
Kamil Zapolnik8%
Luciano Narsingh7%
Chuca7%
Mateusz Abramowicz5%
Stefanos Kapino0%
Maciej Śliwa0%
Mehdi Lehaire0%
Paweł Lenarcik0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Dimitar Velkovski21%
Jens Martin Gammelby17%
Olaf Kobacki17%
Maxime Dominguez14%
Hubert Matynia14%
Damian Tront10%
Carlos Julio Martínez8%
Szymon Matuszek7%
Jurich Carolina4%
Nemanja Mijušković4%
Ángelo Henríquez3%
Luciano Narsingh3%
Koldo Obieta Alberdi3%
Jerónimo Cacciabue0%
Stefanos Kapino0%
Giannis Masouras0%
Maciej Śliwa0%
Kamil Zapolnik0%
Kamil Drygas0%
Andrzej Niewulis0%
Mateusz Abramowicz0%
Levent Gülen0%
Mehdi Lehaire0%
Jon Aurtenetxe0%
Chuca0%
Paweł Lenarcik0%
Santiago Naveda0%
Michael Kostka0%
Dawid Drachal0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Ángelo Henríquez21%
Kamil Drygas18%
Olaf Kobacki8%
Giannis Masouras7%
Chuca7%
Levent Gülen4%
Michael Kostka4%
Nemanja Mijušković4%
Luciano Narsingh3%
Koldo Obieta Alberdi3%
Jerónimo Cacciabue0%
Dimitar Velkovski0%
Jens Martin Gammelby0%
Stefanos Kapino0%
Jurich Carolina0%
Maciej Śliwa0%
Szymon Matuszek0%
Kamil Zapolnik0%
Hubert Matynia0%
Andrzej Niewulis0%
Damian Tront0%
Mateusz Abramowicz0%
Maxime Dominguez0%
Mehdi Lehaire0%
Jon Aurtenetxe0%
Carlos Julio Martínez0%
Paweł Lenarcik0%
Santiago Naveda0%
Dawid Drachal0%
Warta Poznań · 2023/24
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Kajetan Szmyt21%
Adam Zreľák14%
Maciej Żurawski14%
Mateusz Kupczak12%
Márton Eppel10%
Tomas Prikryl9%
Stefan Savić7%
Miguel Luís6%
Dimitrios Stavropoulos4%
Dario Vizinger3%
Konrad Matuszewski3%
Dawid Szymonowicz3%
Michał Kopczyński0%
Mohamed Mezghrani0%
Wiktor Pleśnierowicz0%
Jakub Bartkowski0%
Adrian Lis0%
Jakub Kiełb0%
Bogdan Țîru0%
Niilo Mäenpää0%
Jedrzej Grobelny0%
Filip Borowski0%
Wiktor Kaminski0%
Kacper Przybylko0%
Jakub Paszkowski0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Wiktor Pleśnierowicz31%
Dimitrios Stavropoulos28%
Dario Vizinger28%
Mateusz Kupczak19%
Maciej Żurawski17%
Mohamed Mezghrani17%
Jakub Bartkowski17%
Michał Kopczyński14%
Dawid Szymonowicz13%
Filip Borowski12%
Kajetan Szmyt12%
Jedrzej Grobelny12%
Stefan Savić10%
Konrad Matuszewski10%
Adrian Lis10%
Miguel Luís9%
Tomas Prikryl9%
Bogdan Țîru8%
Adam Zreľák7%
Jakub Kiełb5%
Márton Eppel5%
Niilo Mäenpää0%
Wiktor Kaminski0%
Kacper Przybylko0%
Jakub Paszkowski0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Dario Vizinger10%
Jakub Kiełb10%
Mohamed Mezghrani8%
Adam Zreľák7%
Konrad Matuszewski7%
Kajetan Szmyt6%
Tomas Prikryl5%
Niilo Mäenpää4%
Filip Borowski4%
Dimitrios Stavropoulos4%
Stefan Savić3%
Miguel Luís3%
Michał Kopczyński0%
Wiktor Pleśnierowicz0%
Jakub Bartkowski0%
Maciej Żurawski0%
Mateusz Kupczak0%
Dawid Szymonowicz0%
Adrian Lis0%
Bogdan Țîru0%
Márton Eppel0%
Jedrzej Grobelny0%
Wiktor Kaminski0%
Kacper Przybylko0%
Jakub Paszkowski0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Márton Eppel14%
Mateusz Kupczak9%
Adam Zreľák7%
Dario Vizinger7%
Wiktor Pleśnierowicz6%
Kajetan Szmyt6%
Miguel Luís0%
Michał Kopczyński0%
Dimitrios Stavropoulos0%
Mohamed Mezghrani0%
Jakub Bartkowski0%
Maciej Żurawski0%
Dawid Szymonowicz0%
Adrian Lis0%
Jakub Kiełb0%
Bogdan Țîru0%
Niilo Mäenpää0%
Tomas Prikryl0%
Stefan Savić0%
Konrad Matuszewski0%
Jedrzej Grobelny0%
Filip Borowski0%
Wiktor Kaminski0%
Kacper Przybylko0%
Jakub Paszkowski0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LG (20)
€22m
AG (23)
€5m
PW (25)
€5m
ML (24)
€4m
ŁŁ (22)
€4m
OO (24)
€4m
RC (20)
€4m
NIE (16)
€4m
SR (18)
€3m
PB (21)
€3m
CG (20)
€3m
PN (16)
€3m
PGM (15)
€2m
SM (16)
€2m
PS (18)
€2m
WP (6)
€1m
POD (5)
€1m
US (3)
€0m
Miedz Legnica's squad is €3m more valuable than Warta Poznań's (€4m vs €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LG (8)
€15m
PW (13)
€3m
AG (9)
€2m
OO (8)
€2m
ŁŁ (7)
€2m
NIE (7)
€2m
ML (7)
€1m
SM (8)
€1m
RC (7)
€1m
SR (9)
€1m
PB (8)
€1m
PN (6)
€1m
CG (7)
€1m
PS (8)
€1m
PGM (4)
€0m
POD (1)
€0m
WP (0)
€0m
US (0)
€0m
Miedz Legnica's attack is €1m more valuable than Warta Poznań's (€1m vs €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LG (3)
€5m
ML (10)
€2m
NIE (5)
€2m
OO (8)
€1m
PGM (6)
€1m
AG (5)
€1m
PB (8)
€1m
ŁŁ (7)
€1m
RC (5)
€1m
WP (3)
€1m
CG (6)
€1m
PN (4)
€0m
PW (2)
€0m
SR (2)
€0m
PS (3)
€0m
US (2)
€0m
POD (2)
€0m
SM (2)
€0m
Miedz Legnica and Warta Poznań have a similar midfield value (both €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LG (9)
€3m
AG (9)
€2m
PW (10)
€2m
ŁŁ (8)
€2m
CG (7)
€1m
SR (7)
€1m
RC (8)
€1m
ML (7)
€1m
PN (6)
€1m
OO (8)
€1m
PB (5)
€1m
PGM (5)
€1m
PS (7)
€1m
NIE (4)
€1m
SM (6)
€1m
WP (3)
€0m
POD (2)
€0m
US (1)
€0m
Miedz Legnica and Warta Poznań have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Poland: I Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Poland: I Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
ŁKS Łódź
Chrobry Głogów
Arka Gdynia
Polonia Warszawa
Pogoń Siedlce
Odra Opole
Stal Mielec
Nieciecza
Lechia Gdansk
Ruch Chorzów
Puszcza Niepołomice
Polonia Bytom
Unia Skierniewice
Podbeskidzie
Stal Rzeszów