The contest between Milton Keynes Dons and Leicester is finely balanced, with the model favouring an away win. The predicted probabilities are 29 % for a home victory, 31 % for a draw, and 40 % for a Leicester triumph. The expected goal tally sits at 2.3, with the most likely total being two goals at 28 %. The single scoreline the model deems most probable is 1-1, carrying a 14.5 % chance. Leicester, playing away against a weaker side, averages 1.33 goals scored and 0.67 conceded. Milton Keynes Dons, unbeaten in their last five with a 1-1 draw against Huddersfield, have not yet shown a clear scoring edge. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.7 %), Under 6.5 (99.1 %, edge 4 %), Home under 2.5 HT goals (98.5 %, edge 4 %), Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.0 %, edge 5 %), Home under 3.5 goals (97.9 %, edge 5 %), Home under 2.5 2H goals (97.5 %, edge 6 %), Under 5.5 (97.1 %, edge 7 %), and Away under 3.5 goals (96.1 %, edge 6 %).
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, Leicester, failed to deliver, as the match finished 0-0, a draw that extended both sides’ recent run of draws. The model had picked an away win with a 40% probability, but that call was wrong. Every model selection was settled: Under 7.5 hit at 99.7%, Under 6.5 hit at 99.1%, Home under 2.5 HT goals hit at 98.3%, Home under 3.5 goals hit at 97.9%, Home under 2.5 2H goals hit at 97.6%, Under 5.5 hit at 97.1%, Away under 3.5 goals hit at 96.1%, and Away under 2.5 HT goals hit at 95.9%. The match’s 0-0 scoreline matched the most likely score of 1-1, 0-0, or 0-1, with 0-0 having a 11.5% chance. The game was a quiet, evenly matched affair, leaving the model’s predictions largely accurate except for the favourite’s outcome.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Milton Keynes Dons win✗ Miss
29.0%
Avg Implied 35.4% · @ 2.63
Edge
-6.4%
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
2.90
Dafabet
2.80
Unibet
2.75
Betano
2.70
Bet365
2.70
Draw✓ Hit
30.9%
Avg Implied 27.1% · @ 3.44
Edge
+3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.68
Betfair
3.60
Dafabet
3.50
BetVictor
3.50
Marathonbet
3.48
Leicester win✗ Miss
40.1%
Avg Implied 37.5% · @ 2.49
Edge
+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
2.81
Marathonbet
2.74
Superbet
2.55
1xBet
2.50
BetVictor
2.50
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Milton Keynes Dons
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.77
0.97
1.60
0.73
1.93
1.20
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
4.00
-
-
1.00
4.00
vs Similar (16)
1.38
1.06
1.11
1.00
1.71
1.14
vs Weaker (13)
2.31
0.62
2.33
0.33
2.29
0.86
Clean sheet %
33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Leicester) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Leicester
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
1.47
1.27
1.67
1.00
1.27
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
1.17
1.57
1.45
1.73
0.92
1.42
vs Weaker (7)
1.00
1.14
0.75
1.50
1.33
0.67
Clean sheet %
17% (-11pp vs league)
This opponent (Milton Keynes Dons) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
68.0%
@ 1.22-8.7%
Under 1.5
32.0%
@ 3.98+8.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.25
Betano
1.24
BetVictor
1.24
Bet365
1.22
Betfair
1.22
Under
Pinnacle
4.45
Betfair
4.20
Marathonbet
4.00
Superbet
4.00
Bet365
4.00
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
40.1%
@ 1.71-14.8%
Under 2.5
59.9%
@ 2.08+14.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.75
10Bet
1.73
Bet365
1.73
Betfair
1.73
Pinnacle
1.72
Under
Pinnacle
2.19
Marathonbet
2.13
1xBet
2.10
10Bet
2.10
Betfair
2.10
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
19.8%
@ 2.72-14.4%
Under 3.5
80.2%
@ 1.41+14.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.88
10Bet
2.80
Pinnacle
2.76
Unibet
2.75
Bet365
2.75
Under
Pinnacle
1.47
BetVictor
1.42
Superbet
1.42
10Bet
1.42
Betano
1.42
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
47.4%
@ 1.58-11.4%
No
52.6%
@ 2.25+11.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.62
William Hil
1.62
Betano
1.60
Betfair
1.60
Superbet
1.58
No
1xBet
2.30
Betfair
2.30
Marathonbet
2.26
10Bet
2.25
Unibet
2.25
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.5%@ 6.26+7.3%
0-0 ✓
11.5%@ 11.58+7.6%
0-1
11.4%@ 9.20+6.5%
1-0
9.2%@ 9.59+4.5%
1-2
8.3%@ 8.81+3.2%
0-2
8.0%@ 12.55+4.4%
2-1
6.8%@ 9.12+1.9%
2-0
5.4%@ 13.62+2.1%
Milton Keynes Dons goals ↓
Leicester goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
11%
11%
8.0%
3.3%
1.1%
1
9.2%
14%
8.3%
3.5%
1.1%
2
5.4%
6.8%
4.3%
1.8%
0.6%
3
1.9%
2.3%
1.5%
0.6%
0.2%
4
0.5%
0.6%
0.4%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Milton Keynes Dons goals (down), columns = Leicester goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Leicester
2.34
Stockport
1.69
Luton
1.61
Bradford
1.60
Plymouth
1.59
Oxford
1.58
Stevenage
1.56
Sheffield Weds
1.49
Huddersfield
1.46
Mansfield
1.41
Milton Keynes Dons
1.38
Reading
1.37
Wycombe
1.37
Blackpool
1.30
Doncaster
1.30
Barnsley
1.28
Wigan
1.22
Cambridge
1.21
Burton
1.17
Notts County
1.17
AFC Wimbledon
1.15
Peterboro
1.15
Leyton Orient
1.13
Bromley
1.08
Milton Keynes Dons is 0.96 points worse than Leicester in terms of average points per game (1.38 vs 2.34).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Leicester
2.24
Plymouth
1.63
Huddersfield
1.61
Stockport
1.53
Oxford
1.51
Wycombe
1.50
Barnsley
1.48
Luton
1.48
Sheffield Weds
1.42
Reading
1.39
Peterboro
1.39
Mansfield
1.35
Milton Keynes Dons
1.32
Leyton Orient
1.28
Bradford
1.21
Blackpool
1.17
Cambridge
1.15
Notts County
1.12
AFC Wimbledon
1.11
Doncaster
1.09
Burton
1.09
Wigan
1.07
Bromley
1.03
Stevenage
1.02
Milton Keynes Dons is 0.91 goals worse than Leicester in terms of goals scored per game (1.32 vs 2.24).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Leicester
0.77
Stevenage
1.02
Mansfield
1.09
Bradford
1.10
Oxford
1.14
Sheffield Weds
1.21
Luton
1.22
Wycombe
1.26
Wigan
1.26
Stockport
1.27
Milton Keynes Dons
1.30
Reading
1.30
Burton
1.30
Plymouth
1.37
Huddersfield
1.39
Blackpool
1.41
Peterboro
1.48
Cambridge
1.49
Doncaster
1.50
Notts County
1.54
Leyton Orient
1.54
AFC Wimbledon
1.57
Barnsley
1.59
Bromley
1.67
Milton Keynes Dons is 0.53 goals worse than Leicester in terms of goals conceded per game (1.30 vs 0.77).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Luton
56%
Peterboro
55%
Stockport
55%
Wycombe
54%
Leyton Orient
52%
Barnsley
52%
Doncaster
50%
Reading
50%
Bradford
50%
Huddersfield
50%
Plymouth
48%
AFC Wimbledon
46%
Blackpool
46%
Burton
46%
Mansfield
46%
Wigan
45%
Stevenage
45%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Milton Keynes Dons
For 4.3 · Against 5.2 · Total 9.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.5 · Against 1.8 · Total 3.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.4 · Against 10.9 · Total 22.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Leicester
For 7.1 · Against 5.3 · Total 12.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 1.7 · Total 3.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.1 · Against 11.5 · Total 22.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Milton Keynes Dons
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.1
8.6
9.6
3.6
3.8
3.4
23.3
23.5
23.1
vs Stronger (1)
10.0
-
10.0
5.0
-
5.0
24.0
-
24.0
vs Similar (27)
10.1
9.9
10.3
3.9
3.9
3.9
24.3
24.0
24.6
vs Weaker (22)
7.8
6.8
8.7
3.1
3.6
2.6
21.9
22.7
21.0
% over line
40%
38%
42%
56%
56%
56%
60%
58%
62%
% under line
60%
62%
58%
44%
44%
44%
40%
42%
38%
This opponent (Leicester) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Leicester
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.9
11.4
10.5
3.8
3.9
3.7
22.4
22.2
22.6
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (41)
10.9
11.4
10.4
3.9
3.9
4.0
22.2
21.7
22.7
vs Weaker (9)
11.0
11.0
11.0
3.1
4.0
2.4
23.3
24.5
22.4
% over line
60%
62%
58%
46%
54%
38%
56%
58%
54%
% under line
40%
38%
42%
54%
46%
62%
44%
42%
46%
This opponent (Milton Keynes Dons) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Barnsley
11.3
Oxford
11.3
Plymouth
11.2
Leicester
10.9
Wigan
10.6
Bromley
10.4
Luton
10.4
Blackpool
10.4
Huddersfield
10.3
Burton
10.3
Sheffield Weds
10.2
Bradford
10.2
Peterboro
10.1
Wycombe
10.1
Stockport
10.0
AFC Wimbledon
9.9
Doncaster
9.9
Mansfield
9.7
Leyton Orient
9.6
Notts County
9.4
Reading
9.3
Milton Keynes Dons
9.0
Cambridge
9.0
Stevenage
8.7
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Plymouth
4.8
Notts County
4.4
Peterboro
4.3
Bradford
4.1
Huddersfield
4.1
Leyton Orient
4.0
Doncaster
3.8
Stevenage
3.8
Leicester
3.8
Blackpool
3.7
Wycombe
3.7
Milton Keynes Dons
3.7
Bromley
3.7
Luton
3.7
Mansfield
3.7
Burton
3.6
Reading
3.6
Oxford
3.4
Barnsley
3.4
Stockport
3.3
AFC Wimbledon
3.2
Wigan
3.1
Cambridge
3.1
Sheffield Weds
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Notts County
24.7
Bradford
24.6
Stevenage
24.6
Plymouth
24.5
Huddersfield
24.2
Luton
23.8
Peterboro
23.7
Leyton Orient
23.4
Blackpool
23.4
Milton Keynes Dons
23.3
Wigan
23.3
AFC Wimbledon
22.9
Cambridge
22.5
Oxford
22.5
Doncaster
22.5
Reading
22.4
Leicester
22.4
Mansfield
22.2
Burton
22.2
Sheffield Weds
21.9
Bromley
21.7
Wycombe
21.4
Stockport
20.9
Barnsley
20.4
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
49.1%
@ 1.51-11.9%
Under 9.5
50.9%
@ 2.36+11.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
1.57
Pinnacle
1.53
Superbet
1.53
Betano
1.52
Unibet
1.50
Under
Pinnacle
2.45
Betano
2.42
Marathonbet
2.41
Superbet
2.35
1xBet
2.33
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
50.5%
Under 3.5
49.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
62.6%
Under 21.5
37.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Milton Keynes Dons or Draw✓ Hit
59.9%
Avg Implied 62.2% · @ 1.50
Edge
-2.3%
29%
31%
40%
covers Milton Keynes Dons + Draw
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
1.60
Betano
1.57
William Hil
1.55
Bet365
1.53
1xBet
1.49
Milton Keynes Dons or Leicester✗ Miss
69.1%
Avg Implied 73.1% · @ 1.27
Edge
-3.9%
29%
31%
40%
covers Milton Keynes Dons + Leicester
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
1.30
Superbet
1.29
BetVictor
1.29
Betano
1.29
William Hil
1.29
Draw or Leicester✓ Hit
71.0%
Avg Implied 64.8% · @ 1.44
Edge
+6.2%
29%
31%
40%
covers Draw + Leicester
Best 5 market prices
Marathonbet
1.54
Betano
1.47
1xBet
1.46
Superbet
1.45
William Hil
1.44
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Milton Keynes Dons over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
64.4%
@ 1.24-10.4%
Under
35.6%
@ 3.68+10.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.28
10Bet
1.28
Marathonbet
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Superbet
1.25
Under
Pinnacle
4.27
Betfair
3.80
Bet365
3.75
1xBet
3.72
BetVictor
3.70
Milton Keynes Dons over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
27.6%
@ 2.21-14.7%
Under
72.4%
@ 1.62+14.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
2.35
Betano
2.27
Bet365
2.25
1xBet
2.21
BetVictor
2.20
Under
Pinnacle
1.74
Marathonbet
1.72
1xBet
1.64
Superbet
1.62
Betano
1.60
Milton Keynes Dons over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
8.6%
@ 4.97-10.1%
Under
91.4%
@ 1.14+10.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
5.50
10Bet
5.25
Betfair
5.20
BetVictor
5.00
1xBet
4.90
Under
Marathonbet
1.17
Betano
1.16
Superbet
1.16
1xBet
1.14
Bet365
1.14
Milton Keynes Dons over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
2.1%
@ 11.75-6.0%
Under
97.9%
@ 1.03+6.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
15.00
Superbet
11.00
Betano
9.25
Under
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.03
Bet365
1.03
Leicester over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
71.5%
@ 1.22-4.3%
Under
28.5%
@ 3.84+4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.26
Betano
1.25
Superbet
1.24
BetVictor
1.22
Betfair
1.22
Under
10Bet
4.00
Bet365
4.00
1xBet
3.84
Pinnacle
3.83
BetVictor
3.80
Leicester over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
35.7%
@ 2.16-7.5%
Under
64.3%
@ 1.65+7.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.34
Marathonbet
2.27
Betfair
2.20
Superbet
2.17
1xBet
2.16
Under
10Bet
1.70
1xBet
1.67
Bet365
1.67
Betano
1.67
BetVictor
1.65
Leicester over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
13.3%
@ 4.65-6.6%
Under
86.7%
@ 1.16+6.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
5.20
Marathonbet
5.10
BetVictor
4.75
1xBet
4.70
Superbet
4.65
Under
Betano
1.19
10Bet
1.18
Bet365
1.18
Superbet
1.17
1xBet
1.15
Leicester over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
3.9%
@ 10.16-5.4%
Under
96.1%
@ 1.03+5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
13.00
Superbet
11.00
1xBet
9.30
Betfair
9.00
Betano
8.50
Under
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.04
Superbet
1.03
Betfair
1.03
1xBet
1.02
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Milton Keynes Dons, so a minus line means Milton Keynes Dons give that many goals of a start and Leicester receive them. At -1, Milton Keynes Dons must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Milton Keynes Dons win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
This opponent (Leicester) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Leicester
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.60
0.87
0.80
0.40
0.40
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
0.65
0.52
1.00
0.64
0.33
0.42
vs Weaker (7)
0.57
0.86
0.50
1.25
0.67
0.33
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Milton Keynes Dons) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
69.5%
@ 1.32-1.0%
Under 0.5
30.5%
@ 3.16+1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.38
Bet365
1.33
Superbet
1.33
10Bet
1.33
Marathonbet
1.32
Under
Betfair
3.30
BetVictor
3.30
Bet365
3.25
William Hil
3.20
Superbet
3.15
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
29.8%
@ 2.49-7.5%
Under 1.5
70.2%
@ 1.48+7.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.62
Betfair
2.55
Pinnacle
2.55
William Hil
2.50
1xBet
2.50
Under
Pinnacle
1.52
Bet365
1.50
BetVictor
1.50
Superbet
1.50
Unibet
1.49
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
10.6%
@ 6.10-4.7%
Under 2.5
89.4%
@ 1.10+4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
7.00
Betfair
6.50
Bet365
6.50
William Hil
6.00
Superbet
5.75
Under
Betano
1.12
Superbet
1.12
William Hil
1.11
Bet365
1.11
Marathonbet
1.08
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Milton Keynes Dons over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
39.3%
@ 1.97-7.9%
Under
60.7%
@ 1.76+7.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.05
Superbet
2.00
10Bet
2.00
Pinnacle
1.95
1xBet
1.95
Under
Pinnacle
1.85
Marathonbet
1.80
Unibet
1.74
1xBet
1.74
10Bet
1.73
Milton Keynes Dons over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
9.5%
@ 6.02-5.9%
Under
90.5%
@ 1.09+5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
6.25
1xBet
6.25
Betano
5.90
Superbet
5.90
Marathonbet
5.80
Under
Betano
1.11
Superbet
1.10
10Bet
1.09
Marathonbet
1.09
1xBet
1.08
Milton Keynes Dons over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.7%
@ 18.00-3.7%
Under
98.3%
@ 1.01+3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
23.00
Superbet
19.00
Betano
12.00
Under
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
Leicester over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
43.3%
@ 1.94-4.5%
Under
56.7%
@ 1.78+4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.02
Marathonbet
1.99
Betano
1.98
1xBet
1.93
Superbet
1.90
Under
10Bet
1.80
Superbet
1.80
Unibet
1.80
Pinnacle
1.79
Betano
1.78
Leicester over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
11.2%
@ 5.82-4.7%
Under
88.8%
@ 1.10+4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
6.45
1xBet
6.05
Superbet
5.60
Betano
5.50
10Bet
5.50
Under
Betano
1.13
Superbet
1.11
10Bet
1.11
1xBet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.07
Leicester over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
4.1%
@ 16.17-1.8%
Under
95.9%
@ 1.01+1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
19.00
Superbet
18.00
Betano
11.50
Under
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
Superbet
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Milton Keynes Dons
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.63
0.47
0.47
0.60
0.80
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
1.00
-
-
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (16)
0.38
0.81
0.22
0.67
0.57
1.00
vs Weaker (13)
0.69
0.38
0.83
0.17
0.57
0.57
Clean sheet %
47% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Leicester) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Leicester
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.87
0.40
0.87
0.60
0.87
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
0.52
1.04
0.45
1.09
0.58
1.00
vs Weaker (7)
0.43
0.29
0.25
0.25
0.67
0.33
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Milton Keynes Dons) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
77.3%
@ 1.19-0.9%
Under 0.5
22.7%
@ 4.27+0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.21
Bet365
1.20
Superbet
1.20
William Hil
1.20
Marathonbet
1.16
Under
Marathonbet
4.40
1xBet
4.35
Bet365
4.33
Betano
4.30
Superbet
4.25
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
43.6%
@ 1.91-5.0%
Under 1.5
56.4%
@ 1.81+5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.95
Superbet
1.95
Betano
1.91
Bet365
1.91
1xBet
1.90
Under
Betano
1.85
Marathonbet
1.85
1xBet
1.84
Superbet
1.80
Bet365
1.80
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
16.0%
@ 3.84-8.2%
Under 2.5
84.0%
@ 1.22+8.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
4.00
Bet365
4.00
Superbet
3.90
Betano
3.75
1xBet
3.75
Under
Betano
1.26
Superbet
1.23
Marathonbet
1.22
Bet365
1.22
1xBet
1.21
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Milton Keynes Dons over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
43.6%
@ 1.68-11.4%
Under
56.4%
@ 2.06+11.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.73
Betano
1.70
Superbet
1.69
1xBet
1.66
Marathonbet
1.64
Under
Marathonbet
2.10
Betano
2.07
1xBet
2.06
Superbet
2.05
10Bet
2.00
Milton Keynes Dons over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
10.9%
@ 4.34-10.5%
Under
89.1%
@ 1.18+10.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
4.75
1xBet
4.40
Superbet
4.30
Betano
4.20
Marathonbet
4.05
Under
Betano
1.20
Marathonbet
1.19
Superbet
1.18
1xBet
1.16
10Bet
1.15
Milton Keynes Dons over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.4%
@ 11.83-5.6%
Under
97.6%
@ 1.03+5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
13.00
10Bet
13.00
Betano
9.50
Under
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.02
10Bet
1.02
Leicester over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
55.3%
@ 1.64-1.0%
Under
44.7%
@ 2.12+1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.69
Superbet
1.67
Betano
1.65
1xBet
1.64
10Bet
1.57
Under
10Bet
2.25
Betano
2.15
1xBet
2.10
Superbet
2.07
Marathonbet
2.02
Leicester over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
24.7%
@ 4.14+2.3%
Under
75.3%
@ 1.19-2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.50
Superbet
4.25
1xBet
4.25
Betano
3.90
10Bet
3.80
Under
Betano
1.23
10Bet
1.22
1xBet
1.18
Superbet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.16
Leicester over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
4.2%
@ 10.33-4.9%
Under
95.8%
@ 1.03+4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
12.00
10Bet
10.00
Betano
9.00
Under
Betano
1.04
10Bet
1.03
Superbet
1.02
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
99.1%
1.01
Betano
1.02
1xBet
1.01
Superbet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
+4.4%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.3%
1.01
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
-
-
-
+3.7%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
97.9%
1.03
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
+6.0%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
97.6%
1.03
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.02
10Bet
1.02
-
-
+5.6%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
97.1%
1.03
Betano
1.06
Superbet
1.05
Bet365
1.05
Betfair
1.04
BetVictor
1.02
+6.7%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
96.1%
1.03
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.04
Superbet
1.03
Betfair
1.03
1xBet
1.02
+5.4%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
95.9%
1.01
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
Superbet
1.01
-
-
+1.8%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
95.8%
1.03
Betano
1.04
10Bet
1.03
Superbet
1.02
-
-
+4.9%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
91.8%
1.14
Pinnacle
1.18
Betano
1.17
10Bet
1.15
Superbet
1.15
Betfair
1.14
+10.0%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
91.4%
1.14
Marathonbet
1.17
Betano
1.16
Superbet
1.16
1xBet
1.14
Bet365
1.14
+10.1%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
90.5%
1.09
Betano
1.11
Superbet
1.10
10Bet
1.09
Marathonbet
1.09
1xBet
1.08
+5.9%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
89.4%
1.10
Betano
1.12
Superbet
1.12
William Hil
1.11
Bet365
1.11
Marathonbet
1.08
+4.7%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
89.1%
1.18
Betano
1.20
Marathonbet
1.19
Superbet
1.18
1xBet
1.16
10Bet
1.15
+10.5%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
88.8%
1.10
Betano
1.13
Superbet
1.11
10Bet
1.11
1xBet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.07
+4.7%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
88.5%
1.14
Superbet
1.15
Bet365
1.14
Marathonbet
1.14
Betfair
1.13
Unibet
1.12
+9.1%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
86.7%
1.16
Betano
1.19
10Bet
1.18
Bet365
1.18
Superbet
1.17
1xBet
1.15
+6.6%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
84.0%
1.22
Betano
1.26
Superbet
1.23
Marathonbet
1.22
Bet365
1.22
1xBet
1.21
+8.2%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
83.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
81.6%
1.16
10Bet
1.22
Bet365
1.17
Superbet
1.16
Unibet
1.15
Betfair
1.13
+4.8%
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
80.2%
1.41
Pinnacle
1.47
BetVictor
1.42
Superbet
1.42
10Bet
1.42
Betano
1.42
+14.4%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
77.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 0.5 2H goals
77.3%
1.19
Betano
1.21
Bet365
1.20
Superbet
1.20
William Hil
1.20
Marathonbet
1.16
-0.9%
✗ Miss
Away under 1.5 2H goals
75.3%
1.19
Betano
1.23
10Bet
1.22
1xBet
1.18
Superbet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.16
-2.3%
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
74.1%
1.53
Superbet
1.59
Pinnacle
1.58
Unibet
1.55
Betano
1.53
1xBet
1.52
+13.9%
✗ Miss
Home under 1.5 goals
72.4%
1.62
Pinnacle
1.74
Marathonbet
1.72
1xBet
1.64
Superbet
1.62
Betano
1.60
+14.7%
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
71.5%
1.22
Pinnacle
1.26
Betano
1.25
Superbet
1.24
BetVictor
1.22
Betfair
1.22
-4.3%
✗ Miss
Over 2.5 cards
71.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Draw or Away
71.0%
1.44
Marathonbet
1.54
Betano
1.47
1xBet
1.46
Superbet
1.45
William Hil
1.44
+6.2%
✓ Hit
Away +1 handicap
71.0%
1.45
Marathonbet
1.54
Superbet
1.47
Betfair
1.44
Bet365
1.44
Unibet
1.42
+9.2%
✓ Hit
Under 1.5 HT goals
70.2%
1.48
Pinnacle
1.52
Bet365
1.50
BetVictor
1.50
Superbet
1.50
Unibet
1.49
+7.5%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Milton Keynes Dons
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
A. Collins50%
Ryan Wintle25%
G. Jones0%
Charlie Goode0%
M. Ekpiteta0%
S. Nombe0%
C. Paterson0%
B. Wiles0%
Craig McGillivray0%
Curtis Nelson0%
D. Barlaser0%
Ryan Barnett0%
Cohen Bramall0%
S. Silvera0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
A. Collins25%
Charlie Goode25%
G. Jones0%
Ryan Wintle0%
M. Ekpiteta0%
S. Nombe0%
C. Paterson0%
B. Wiles0%
Craig McGillivray0%
Curtis Nelson0%
D. Barlaser0%
Ryan Barnett0%
Cohen Bramall0%
S. Silvera0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
B. Wiles25%
G. Jones0%
A. Collins0%
Ryan Wintle0%
Charlie Goode0%
M. Ekpiteta0%
S. Nombe0%
C. Paterson0%
Craig McGillivray0%
Curtis Nelson0%
D. Barlaser0%
Ryan Barnett0%
Cohen Bramall0%
S. Silvera0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
A. Collins25%
Charlie Goode25%
G. Jones0%
Ryan Wintle0%
M. Ekpiteta0%
S. Nombe0%
C. Paterson0%
B. Wiles0%
Craig McGillivray0%
Curtis Nelson0%
D. Barlaser0%
Ryan Barnett0%
Cohen Bramall0%
S. Silvera0%
Leicester
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
H. Howell25%
Olabade Aluko25%
Wes Burns20%
William Alves20%
Bobby De Cordova-Reid0%
Liam Cullen0%
H. Souttar0%
Luke Thomas0%
J. Stolarczyk0%
S. Braybrooke0%
T. Watson0%
Admir Bristrić0%
C. McFarlane0%
Jayden Joseph0%
L. Page0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
H. Souttar50%
Bobby De Cordova-Reid40%
S. Braybrooke40%
Jayden Joseph25%
Olabade Aluko25%
Liam Cullen20%
Wes Burns20%
Luke Thomas20%
T. Watson20%
L. Page20%
J. Stolarczyk0%
William Alves0%
Admir Bristrić0%
C. McFarlane0%
H. Howell0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Bobby De Cordova-Reid20%
Luke Thomas20%
L. Page20%
Liam Cullen0%
H. Souttar0%
Wes Burns0%
J. Stolarczyk0%
S. Braybrooke0%
William Alves0%
T. Watson0%
Admir Bristrić0%
C. McFarlane0%
Jayden Joseph0%
H. Howell0%
Olabade Aluko0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
T. Watson40%
C. McFarlane33%
Jayden Joseph25%
H. Howell25%
Bobby De Cordova-Reid20%
S. Braybrooke20%
Liam Cullen0%
H. Souttar0%
Wes Burns0%
Luke Thomas0%
J. Stolarczyk0%
William Alves0%
Admir Bristrić0%
Olabade Aluko0%
L. Page0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LEI (22)
€69m
LUT (26)
€29m
SHW (24)
€21m
OXF (24)
€20m
HUD (26)
€16m
MKD (24)
€15m
PLY (25)
€13m
BLA (22)
€11m
LO (23)
€10m
STO (25)
€10m
WYC (24)
€10m
REA (20)
€10m
BAR (21)
€8m
WIG (21)
€7m
PET (23)
€7m
BRA (21)
€7m
STE (21)
€7m
DON (23)
€7m
MAN (23)
€6m
NC (24)
€6m
AW (21)
€5m
CAM (20)
€5m
BUR (17)
€5m
BRO (19)
€4m
Milton Keynes Dons's squad is €54m less valuable than Leicester's (€15m vs €69m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LEI (7)
€20m
LUT (10)
€13m
SHW (6)
€7m
OXF (8)
€6m
MKD (8)
€5m
PLY (8)
€4m
LO (6)
€4m
BLA (8)
€4m
HUD (7)
€4m
STO (8)
€3m
REA (6)
€3m
BRA (9)
€3m
PET (8)
€3m
WYC (7)
€3m
NC (7)
€2m
AW (8)
€2m
STE (6)
€2m
CAM (9)
€2m
WIG (8)
€2m
DON (6)
€2m
BAR (5)
€2m
BUR (6)
€1m
MAN (6)
€1m
BRO (5)
€1m
Milton Keynes Dons's attack is €15m less valuable than Leicester's (€5m vs €20m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LEI (4)
€13m
MKD (6)
€7m
SHW (5)
€6m
OXF (4)
€6m
LUT (6)
€4m
HUD (6)
€4m
MAN (5)
€3m
LO (8)
€3m
REA (5)
€3m
STO (6)
€3m
BAR (7)
€3m
BLA (5)
€3m
PLY (6)
€3m
WIG (8)
€2m
WYC (5)
€2m
DON (6)
€2m
NC (7)
€2m
STE (6)
€2m
BUR (4)
€1m
PET (5)
€1m
BRO (6)
€1m
BRA (3)
€1m
AW (5)
€1m
CAM (3)
€1m
Milton Keynes Dons's midfield is €6m less valuable than Leicester's (€7m vs €13m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LEI (11)
€36m
LUT (10)
€12m
OXF (12)
€8m
SHW (13)
€8m
HUD (13)
€8m
PLY (11)
€6m
WYC (12)
€5m
BLA (9)
€4m
STO (11)
€4m
REA (9)
€4m
BAR (9)
€3m
LO (9)
€3m
STE (9)
€3m
DON (11)
€3m
MKD (10)
€3m
PET (10)
€3m
BRA (9)
€3m
WIG (5)
€3m
CAM (8)
€2m
AW (8)
€2m
BUR (7)
€2m
NC (10)
€2m
MAN (12)
€2m
BRO (8)
€2m
Milton Keynes Dons's defence is €33m less valuable than Leicester's (€3m vs €36m).
England: League One 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: League One stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Huddersfield
Sheffield Weds
Blackpool
Burton
Barnsley
Cambridge
Luton
Leyton Orient
Stockport
Notts County
Bradford
Mansfield
Reading
Oxford
Plymouth
Peterboro
AFC Wimbledon
Bromley
Doncaster
Stevenage
Wigan
Wycombe