ML Vitebsk are the clear favourites, with the model assigning a 73% chance to a home win. The team’s recent 3-1 victory over Dinamo Brest and a strong home form - scoring 1.79 and conceding only 0.57 goals against weaker opponents - fuel this confidence, while Arsenal (Belarus) arrive from a five-game losing streak and have yet to score in away matches, conceding one on average against stronger sides. The expected total is 2.4 goals, with the most likely scoreline 2-0, a 17.1% probability. The model’s pick is a home win, and the overall probabilities are 73%home win, 20% draw, 7% away win. Suggested picks include Away under 3.5 goals at 99.9%, Under 7.5 at 99.6%, Away under 2.5 goals at 98.8%, Under 6.5 at 98.8%, Home +2 handicap at 98.5%, Under 5.5 at 96.3%, Over 19.5 fouls at 94.5%, and Home or Draw at 93.2%. These selections reflect the model’s view that Vitebsk’s home advantage and Arsenal’s recent struggles will keep the match low-scoring and favour a Vitebsk victory.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
ML Vitebsk win
70.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
21.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Arsenal (Belarus) win
7.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
ML Vitebsk
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.63
0.60
1.75
0.56
1.50
0.64
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (4)
1.00
0.50
1.50
0.00
0.50
1.00
vs Weaker (26)
1.73
0.62
1.79
0.64
1.67
0.58
Clean sheet %
53% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Arsenal (Belarus)) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Arsenal (Belarus)
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
2.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
1.37
1.00
1.53
0.73
1.20
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
2.00
1.00
2.50
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (27)
0.89
1.30
1.00
1.38
0.79
1.21
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (ML Vitebsk) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
69.5%
Under 1.5
30.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
42.4%
Under 2.5
57.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
21.6%
Under 3.5
78.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
33.2%
No
66.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0
16.8%
2-0
16.7%
3-0
10.6%
0-0
10.1%
1-1
9.3%
2-1
8.0%
3-1
5.1%
4-0
5.0%
ML Vitebsk goals ↓
Arsenal (Belarus) goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
10%
3.6%
1.1%
0.2%
0.0%
1
17%
9.3%
2.0%
0.3%
0.0%
2
17%
8.0%
1.9%
0.3%
0.0%
3
11%
5.1%
1.2%
0.2%
0.0%
4
5.0%
2.4%
0.6%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = ML Vitebsk goals (down), columns = Arsenal (Belarus) goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Isloch Minsk R.
2.67
FC Vitebsk
2.57
ML Vitebsk
2.00
Neman
1.67
Dinamo Brest
1.67
Bate Borisov
1.60
Dinamo Minsk
1.50
FC Minsk
1.50
Slavia Mozyr
1.40
FC Gomel
1.33
Baranovichi
1.29
Belshina
1.00
Naftan
0.67
Torpedo Zhodino
0.67
FC Dnepr Mogilev
0.57
Arsenal (Belarus)
0.43
ML Vitebsk is 1.57 points better than Arsenal (Belarus) in terms of average points per game (2.00 vs 0.43).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Dinamo Minsk
2.25
Dinamo Brest
2.00
FC Isloch Minsk R.
1.83
ML Vitebsk
1.50
Slavia Mozyr
1.40
FC Gomel
1.33
Baranovichi
1.29
FC Vitebsk
1.29
Naftan
1.17
FC Minsk
1.17
Bate Borisov
1.00
Neman
1.00
Belshina
0.83
FC Dnepr Mogilev
0.71
Arsenal (Belarus)
0.71
Torpedo Zhodino
0.67
ML Vitebsk is 0.79 goals better than Arsenal (Belarus) in terms of goals scored per game (1.50 vs 0.71).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Vitebsk
0.14
ML Vitebsk
0.50
FC Gomel
0.50
FC Isloch Minsk R.
0.67
Neman
0.67
Dinamo Minsk
0.75
Bate Borisov
1.00
Dinamo Brest
1.17
FC Minsk
1.17
Slavia Mozyr
1.20
Belshina
1.33
FC Dnepr Mogilev
1.43
Baranovichi
1.43
Torpedo Zhodino
1.67
Arsenal (Belarus)
2.43
Naftan
3.00
ML Vitebsk is 1.93 goals better than Arsenal (Belarus) in terms of goals conceded per game (0.50 vs 2.43).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
ML Vitebsk
63%
Dinamo Minsk
60%
Neman
58%
FC Gomel
55%
Torpedo Zhodino
54%
Dinamo Brest
52%
FC Dnepr Mogilev
50%
Slavia Mozyr
49%
Arsenal (Belarus)
48%
FC Minsk
48%
FC Isloch Minsk R.
47%
Bate Borisov
46%
FC Vitebsk
46%
Baranovichi
44%
Belshina
43%
Naftan
43%
ML Vitebsk is 14.9 percentage points better than Arsenal (Belarus) in terms of average possession (63% vs 48%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
ML Vitebsk
For 7.2 · Against 4.5 · Total 11.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.2 · Against 2.2 · Total 4.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 15.0 · Against 16.5 · Total 31.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Arsenal (Belarus)
For 4.2 · Against 4.8 · Total 9.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.1 · Against 1.2 · Total 2.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.6 · Against 9.9 · Total 21.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
ML Vitebsk
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.7
12.5
10.0
0.5
0.6
0.4
31.5
33.8
27.0
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (5)
8.5
8.0
9.0
2.2
2.0
2.5
39.0
49.0
29.0
vs Weaker (45)
13.2
14.0
11.0
0.3
0.4
0.3
27.8
28.7
25.0
% over line
67%
75%
50%
10%
12%
8%
83%
75%
100%
% under line
33%
25%
50%
90%
88%
92%
17%
25%
0%
This opponent (Arsenal (Belarus)) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Arsenal (Belarus)
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.0
9.0
9.0
3.1
2.9
3.3
21.4
23.2
17.0
vs Stronger (5)
15.0
15.0
-
2.2
2.0
2.3
29.0
29.0
-
vs Similar (45)
8.1
7.5
9.0
3.2
3.0
3.5
20.2
21.8
17.0
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
25%
20%
33%
32%
29%
35%
43%
60%
0%
% under line
75%
80%
67%
68%
71%
65%
57%
40%
100%
This opponent (ML Vitebsk) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Bate Borisov
11.8
Baranovichi
11.8
FC Gomel
11.8
ML Vitebsk
11.7
FC Isloch Minsk R.
11.0
Dinamo Brest
11.0
Belshina
10.9
Dinamo Minsk
10.9
Slavia Mozyr
10.8
Torpedo Zhodino
10.2
Naftan
10.2
FC Dnepr Mogilev
10.0
FC Vitebsk
9.8
FC Minsk
9.7
Arsenal (Belarus)
9.0
Neman
8.6
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Belshina
4.8
ML Vitebsk
4.3
Bate Borisov
3.6
Slavia Mozyr
3.4
Arsenal (Belarus)
3.4
Dinamo Minsk
3.2
Neman
3.1
FC Gomel
3.1
FC Vitebsk
3.1
Naftan
3.0
FC Minsk
2.9
Dinamo Brest
2.9
FC Dnepr Mogilev
2.8
Baranovichi
2.8
FC Isloch Minsk R.
2.7
Torpedo Zhodino
2.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
ML Vitebsk
31.5
Torpedo Zhodino
30.5
FC Gomel
28.7
Baranovichi
28.2
Dinamo Brest
27.8
Slavia Mozyr
27.0
Bate Borisov
26.2
Dinamo Minsk
26.0
FC Isloch Minsk R.
25.8
FC Dnepr Mogilev
22.5
Neman
21.8
Belshina
21.8
Arsenal (Belarus)
21.4
Naftan
21.4
FC Vitebsk
20.2
FC Minsk
17.3
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
70.1%
Under 9.5
29.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
36.5%
Under 3.5
63.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
81.7%
Under 21.5
18.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
ML Vitebsk or Draw
92.4%
Avg Implied -
71%
22%
8%
covers ML Vitebsk + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
ML Vitebsk or Arsenal (Belarus)
78.5%
Avg Implied -
71%
22%
8%
covers ML Vitebsk + Arsenal (Belarus)
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Arsenal (Belarus)
29.2%
Avg Implied -
71%
22%
8%
covers Draw + Arsenal (Belarus)
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
ML Vitebsk over/under 0.5
Over
85.0%
Under
15.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ML Vitebsk over/under 1.5
Over
56.5%
Under
43.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ML Vitebsk over/under 2.5
Over
29.5%
Under
70.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ML Vitebsk over/under 3.5
Over
12.5%
Under
87.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal (Belarus) over/under 0.5
Over
38.0%
Under
62.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal (Belarus) over/under 1.5
Over
8.4%
Under
91.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal (Belarus) over/under 2.5
Over
1.3%
Under
98.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal (Belarus) over/under 3.5
Over
0.1%
Under
99.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to ML Vitebsk, so a minus line means ML Vitebsk give that many goals of a start and Arsenal (Belarus) receive them. At -1, ML Vitebsk must win by two or more to land; a one-goal ML Vitebsk win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (ML Vitebsk)
ML Vitebsk -2
22.3%
Draw -2
22.4%
Arsenal (Belarus) +2
55.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (ML Vitebsk)
ML Vitebsk -1
44.7%
Draw -1
26.1%
Arsenal (Belarus) +1
29.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (ML Vitebsk)
ML Vitebsk +1
92.4%
Draw +1
6.0%
Arsenal (Belarus) -1
1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (ML Vitebsk)
ML Vitebsk +2
98.3%
Draw +2
1.4%
Arsenal (Belarus) -2
0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
ML Vitebsk
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.27
1.12
0.19
0.57
0.36
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (4)
1.00
0.50
1.50
0.00
0.50
1.00
vs Weaker (26)
0.85
0.23
1.07
0.21
0.58
0.25
Clean sheet %
77% (+45pp vs league)
This opponent (Arsenal (Belarus)) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Arsenal (Belarus)
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.50
0.27
0.33
0.60
0.67
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
0.33
0.50
0.50
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (27)
0.44
0.52
0.23
0.31
0.64
0.71
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
67% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (ML Vitebsk) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
ML Vitebsk over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ML Vitebsk over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ML Vitebsk over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal (Belarus) over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal (Belarus) over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal (Belarus) over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
ML Vitebsk
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.33
0.62
0.38
0.93
0.29
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (4)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
vs Weaker (26)
0.88
0.38
0.71
0.43
1.08
0.33
Clean sheet %
70% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Arsenal (Belarus)) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Arsenal (Belarus)
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.87
0.73
1.20
0.13
0.53
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
1.67
0.50
2.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (27)
0.44
0.78
0.77
1.08
0.14
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (ML Vitebsk) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
ML Vitebsk over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ML Vitebsk over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ML Vitebsk over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal (Belarus) over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal (Belarus) over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal (Belarus) over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Away under 3.5 goals
99.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
99.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
98.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
98.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
96.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
92.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
92.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
91.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
91.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 19.5 fouls
90.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
90.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
87.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
85.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 21.5 fouls
81.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5 cards
80.6%
-
-
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Over 8.5 corners
80.1%
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Home or Away
78.5%
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Under 3.5
78.4%
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Home win
70.8%
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Home under 2.5 goals
70.5%
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Over 9.5 corners
70.1%
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No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MV (26)
€14m
DM (27)
€9m
DB (23)
€7m
TZ (31)
€5m
BB (26)
€4m
SM (25)
€4m
FG (23)
€4m
NEM (28)
€4m
FIM (23)
€4m
FM (25)
€3m
FDM (25)
€3m
FV (24)
€3m
BAR (21)
€2m
NAF (21)
€2m
BEL (16)
€2m
A( (17)
€2m
ML Vitebsk's squad is €12m more valuable than Arsenal (Belarus)'s (€14m vs €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MV (9)
€6m
DM (8)
€3m
DB (5)
€2m
FG (8)
€2m
FV (13)
€2m
TZ (10)
€2m
BB (8)
€1m
FDM (9)
€1m
NEM (9)
€1m
FM (9)
€1m
FIM (8)
€1m
BAR (8)
€1m
SM (5)
€1m
BEL (6)
€1m
A( (5)
€1m
NAF (4)
€0m
ML Vitebsk's attack is €5m more valuable than Arsenal (Belarus)'s (€6m vs €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MV (6)
€3m
DM (8)
€2m
NEM (9)
€2m
TZ (7)
€2m
BB (9)
€2m
DB (5)
€1m
SM (10)
€1m
FIM (8)
€1m
NAF (9)
€1m
FG (5)
€1m
FDM (6)
€1m
FM (5)
€1m
BAR (4)
€0m
A( (5)
€0m
BEL (2)
€0m
FV (3)
€0m
ML Vitebsk's midfield is €2m more valuable than Arsenal (Belarus)'s (€3m vs €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MV (11)
€5m
DM (11)
€3m
DB (13)
€3m
TZ (14)
€2m
SM (10)
€2m
FIM (7)
€2m
FM (11)
€1m
FG (10)
€1m
BB (9)
€1m
FDM (10)
€1m
FV (8)
€1m
BAR (9)
€1m
NEM (10)
€1m
BEL (8)
€1m
A( (7)
€1m
NAF (8)
€1m
ML Vitebsk's defence is €4m more valuable than Arsenal (Belarus)'s (€5m vs €1m).
Belarus: Premier League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Belarus: Premier League stats & trends →