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ML Vitebsk vs Baranovichi Result & Analysis

Date: 30/06/2024
Time: 14:00
Final 1-2
ML Vitebsk
ML Vitebsk
Vs
70%
19%
10%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Baranovichi
Baranovichi
Belarus: 1. Division
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

ML Vitebsk win✗ Miss
70.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
19.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Baranovichi win✓ Hit
10.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

ML VitebskML Vitebsk

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-522D11D41W30W10W11D12L20W13L52WA·LID21/04H·ORS28/04A·SLO04/05H·ABF12/05A·BUM19/05H·BEL26/05A·TOR03/06H·VOL08/06A·NIV16/06A·FC 22/06
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.531.472.571.002.501.88
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (0)------
vs Weaker (30)2.531.472.571.002.501.88
Clean sheet %27% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Baranovichi) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

BaranovichiBaranovichi

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-500D02L04L00D02L21W05L21W02L13LA·DIN20/04H·LID27/04A·ORS03/05H·SLO12/05A·ABF18/05H·BUM25/05A·BEL02/06H·TOR09/06A·VOL16/06H·NIV23/06
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
2.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.001.731.441.440.502.07
vs Stronger (2)1.004.002.003.000.005.00
vs Similar (22)0.951.731.421.580.401.90
vs Weaker (6)1.171.001.330.331.001.67
Clean sheet %17% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (ML Vitebsk) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%23%6%013%123%222%317%410%59%6+
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
81.7%
Under 1.5
18.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
58.8%
Under 2.5
41.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
36.4%
Under 3.5
63.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
49.4%
No
50.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
12.2%
1-0
9.9%
2-1
9.5%
1-1
9.2%
3-0
9.2%
3-1
7.2%
0-0
5.6%
4-0
5.2%
ML Vitebsk goals ↓
Baranovichi goals →
01234
05.6%2.9%1.4%0.4%0.1%
19.9%9.2%3.3%0.9%0.2%
212%9.5%3.7%1.0%0.2%
39.2%7.2%2.8%0.7%0.1%
45.2%4.1%1.6%0.4%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = ML Vitebsk goals (down), columns = Baranovichi goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
2.24
Belshina
2.18
ML Vitebsk
2.15
Niva
2.06
Volna
1.94
Dinamo Minsk II
1.53
Lida
1.53
BATE II
1.44
Bumprom
1.41
Orsha
1.32
Ostrovets FC
1.26
Lokomotiv Gomel
1.03
Baranovichi
1.00
ABFF U17
0.97
Shakhtyor Petrikov
0.91
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
0.85
Slonim
0.76
Torpedo BelAZ II
0.62
ML Vitebsk is 1.15 points better than Baranovichi in terms of average points per game (2.15 vs 1.00).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Belshina
2.47
ML Vitebsk
2.21
Niva
2.15
Volna
2.06
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
1.82
Dinamo Minsk II
1.59
Bumprom
1.47
Lida
1.41
Orsha
1.35
BATE II
1.35
Ostrovets FC
1.29
Lokomotiv Gomel
1.24
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
1.06
Torpedo BelAZ II
1.00
Shakhtyor Petrikov
0.97
ABFF U17
0.91
Baranovichi
0.88
Slonim
0.76
ML Vitebsk is 1.32 goals better than Baranovichi in terms of goals scored per game (2.21 vs 0.88).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
0.76
ML Vitebsk
0.79
Niva
1.00
Bumprom
1.09
Dinamo Minsk II
1.15
Lida
1.18
Belshina
1.24
Volna
1.26
Lokomotiv Gomel
1.47
Orsha
1.50
ABFF U17
1.53
BATE II
1.59
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
1.62
Ostrovets FC
1.68
Baranovichi
1.76
Shakhtyor Petrikov
1.79
Slonim
1.91
Torpedo BelAZ II
2.68
ML Vitebsk is 0.97 goals better than Baranovichi in terms of goals conceded per game (0.79 vs 1.76).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

ML VitebskML Vitebsk

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L10W20W20W00D11D00D10W02L31WA·LID21/04H·ORS28/04A·SLO04/05H·ABF12/05A·BUM19/05H·BEL26/05A·TOR03/06H·VOL08/06A·NIV16/06A·FC 22/06
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.300.671.360.291.251.00
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (0)------
vs Weaker (30)1.300.671.360.291.251.00
Clean sheet %60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Baranovichi) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

BaranovichiBaranovichi

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-400D02L01L00D01L10W04L00D00D03LA·DIN20/04H·LID27/04A·ORS03/05H·SLO12/05A·ABF18/05H·BUM25/05A·BEL02/06H·TOR09/06A·VOL16/06H·NIV23/06
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.330.800.310.880.360.71
vs Stronger (2)0.002.000.003.000.001.00
vs Similar (22)0.320.860.330.920.300.80
vs Weaker (6)0.500.170.330.000.670.33
Clean sheet %50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (ML Vitebsk) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
ML Vitebsk over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ML Vitebsk over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ML Vitebsk over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Baranovichi over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Baranovichi over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Baranovichi over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

ML VitebskML Vitebsk

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-221W01L21W10W10W00D12L10W11D21WA·LID21/04H·ORS28/04A·SLO04/05H·ABF12/05A·BUM19/05H·BEL26/05A·TOR03/06H·VOL08/06A·NIV16/06A·FC 22/06
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.230.801.210.711.250.88
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (0)------
vs Weaker (30)1.230.801.210.711.250.88
Clean sheet %47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Baranovichi) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

BaranovichiBaranovichi

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D00D03L00D01L11D01L21W02L10WA·DIN20/04H·LID27/04A·ORS03/05H·SLO12/05A·ABF18/05H·BUM25/05A·BEL02/06H·TOR09/06A·VOL16/06H·NIV23/06
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.670.931.120.560.141.36
vs Stronger (2)1.002.002.000.000.004.00
vs Similar (22)0.640.861.080.670.101.10
vs Weaker (6)0.670.831.000.330.331.33
Clean sheet %43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (ML Vitebsk) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
ML Vitebsk over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ML Vitebsk over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ML Vitebsk over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Baranovichi over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Baranovichi over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Baranovichi over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.581.7%-------✓ Hit
Home win70.2%-------✗ Miss

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MV (26)
€14m
BAR (21)
€2m
BEL (16)
€2m
NIV (21)
€2m
BUM (20)
€2m
DMI (27)
€1m
M4 (22)
€1m
VOL (18)
€1m
OF (22)
€1m
LID (18)
€1m
SLO (20)
€1m
BI (20)
€1m
ORS (19)
€1m
ML Vitebsk's squad is €11m more valuable than Baranovichi's (€14m vs €2m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MV (9)
€6m
BAR (8)
€1m
BEL (6)
€1m
NIV (5)
€1m
BUM (7)
€1m
VOL (6)
€0m
ORS (5)
€0m
M4 (6)
€0m
OF (6)
€0m
SLO (6)
€0m
BI (4)
€0m
LID (2)
€0m
DMI (2)
€0m
ML Vitebsk's attack is €5m more valuable than Baranovichi's (€6m vs €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MV (6)
€3m
DMI (11)
€1m
LID (7)
€1m
NIV (7)
€1m
BAR (4)
€0m
M4 (7)
€0m
BI (7)
€0m
VOL (6)
€0m
OF (7)
€0m
ORS (9)
€0m
SLO (6)
€0m
BEL (2)
€0m
BUM (4)
€0m
ML Vitebsk's midfield is €2m more valuable than Baranovichi's (€3m vs €0m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MV (11)
€5m
BAR (9)
€1m
BEL (8)
€1m
DMI (14)
€1m
BUM (9)
€1m
OF (9)
€1m
NIV (9)
€1m
M4 (9)
€1m
VOL (6)
€0m
LID (9)
€0m
SLO (8)
€0m
BI (9)
€0m
ORS (5)
€0m
ML Vitebsk's defence is €4m more valuable than Baranovichi's (€5m vs €1m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

4 previous meetings
4
MV wins
0
Draws
0
BAR wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

ML Vitebsk vs Baranovichi · H/A from MV
DateH/AGameScore
25/11/23ABaranovichi Vs MV2-3
04/08/23HMV Vs Baranovichi5-0
03/09/22HMV Vs Baranovichi4-2
01/05/22ABaranovichi Vs MV0-1

ML VitebskML Vitebsk

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
22/06/24AFC Energetik-Bgu Minsk Vs MV2-5
16/06/24ANiva Vs MV3-1
08/06/24HMV Vs Volna2-0
03/06/24ATorpedo BelAZ II Vs MV2-1
26/05/24HMV Vs Belshina1-1
19/05/24ABumprom Vs MV0-1
12/05/24HMV Vs ABFF U173-0
04/05/24ASlonim Vs MV1-4
28/04/24HMV Vs Orsha1-1
21/04/24ALida Vs MV2-2

BaranovichiBaranovichi

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
23/06/24HBAR Vs Niva1-3
16/06/24AVolna Vs BAR2-0
09/06/24HBAR Vs Torpedo BelAZ II2-1
02/06/24ABelshina Vs BAR5-0
25/05/24HBAR Vs Bumprom2-1
18/05/24AABFF U17 Vs BAR2-0
12/05/24HBAR Vs Slonim0-0
03/05/24AOrsha Vs BAR4-0
27/04/24HBAR Vs Lida0-2
20/04/24ADinamo Minsk II Vs BAR0-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

ML Vitebsk
ML Vitebsk
Belarus: 1. Division
Recent: 5 Wins / 3 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLWLW1.82
HomeLDWDW1.96
AwayWWLLW1.69
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %56%58%54%
AVG goals3.883.544.19
Over 1.5 %90%92%88%
Over 2.5 %74%58%88%
Over 3.5 %60%50%69%
Scored2.422.292.54
Conceded1.461.251.65
BTTS64%54%73%
Clean Sheet22%25%19%
Corners---
Cards---
Baranovichi
Baranovichi
Belarus: 1. Division
Recent: 2 Wins / 2 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLWLL1.20
HomeLDWWL1.52
AwayDLLLL0.88
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %34%44%24%
AVG goals3.023.482.56
Over 1.5 %82%96%68%
Over 2.5 %56%64%48%
Over 3.5 %36%44%28%
Scored1.161.480.84
Conceded1.862.001.72
BTTS48%64%32%
Clean Sheet22%16%28%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Molodechno-DYuSSh 4Molodechno-DYuSSh 43476
68%
2.2
6226+36
2.6
71%
44%
24%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.80.8
-
2BelshinaBelshina3474
68%
2.2
8442+42
3.7
88%
68%
56%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1012.51.2
-
3ML VitebskML Vitebsk3473
68%
2.1
7527+48
3.0
71%
59%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
14
6352.20.8
-
4NivaNiva3470
62%
2.1
7334+39
3.1
71%
56%
35%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1112.11.0
-
5VolnaVolna3466
62%
1.9
7043+27
3.3
94%
74%
35%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0002.11.3
-
6Dinamo Minsk IIDinamo Minsk II3452
44%
1.5
5439+15
2.7
76%
59%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0111.61.1
-
7LidaLida3452
44%
1.5
4840+8
2.6
68%
41%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0101.41.2
-
8BATE IIBATE II3449
41%
1.4
4654-8
2.9
76%
56%
35%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.41.6
-
9BumpromBumprom3448
38%
1.4
5037+13
2.6
62%
56%
24%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.51.1
-
10OrshaOrsha3445
32%
1.3
4651-5
2.9
82%
38%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.41.5
-
11Ostrovets FCOstrovets FC3443
35%
1.3
4457-13
3.0
76%
59%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.31.7
-
12Lokomotiv GomelLokomotiv Gomel3435
24%
1.0
4250-8
2.7
88%
47%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.5
-
13BaranovichiBaranovichi3434
26%
1.0
3060-30
2.6
74%
56%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1010.91.8
-
14ABFF U17ABFF U173433
26%
1.0
3152-21
2.4
74%
47%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.91.5
-
15Shakhtyor PetrikovShakhtyor Petrikov3431
26%
0.9
3361-28
2.8
68%
53%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.8
-
16FC Energetik-Bgu MinskFC Energetik-Bgu Minsk3429
21%
0.9
3655-19
2.7
65%
41%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.6
-
17SlonimSlonim3426
18%
0.8
2665-39
2.7
65%
47%
35%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0000.81.9
-
18Torpedo BelAZ IITorpedo BelAZ II3421
18%
0.6
3491-57
3.7
85%
65%
41%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.7
-
Belarus: 1. Division 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Belarus: 1. Division stats & trends →

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