In this Belarus Premier League match, ML Vitebsk is poised to extend their winning momentum, coming off a 1-0 victory over Borac Banja Luka. The Pythia prediction model favours a home win, with a 61% probability of ML Vitebsk taking all three points. However, Bate Borisov's recent form, also coming off a win, suggests a closely contested match. The expected total number of goals is 2.8, with a most likely total of 2 goals. The most likely scoreline is 2-0 to ML Vitebsk, with a probability of 11.2%.
At home, ML Vitebsk have a strong record, scoring an average of 2 goals and conceding just 0.69 per match against weaker opponents. Bate Borisov, on the other hand, have struggled away from home, scoring 0.67 goals and conceding 2.67 against stronger opponents. The Pythia model suggests selecting Over 21.5 fouls (85.4%), Over 1.5 goals (78.3%), and ML Vitebsk to win (61% home win percentage, 23% draw percentage, 15% away win percentage).
Results analysis
The 0-0 draw was a shock to the pre-match favourite, ML Vitebsk, who were tipped to win with a 63 % probability. The model’s call was wrong, as the match finished a stalemate. The teams had been coming off draws, with Vitebsk’s recent form noted as “coming off a draw” and Bate Borisov’s also “coming off a draw.” The model’s selections all hit: Under 7.5 goals at 99.3 %, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 99.3 %, Away under 3.5 goals at 99.1 %, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 98.8 %, Under 6.5 at 97.8 %, Home +2 handicap at 95.7 %, Away under 2.5 goals at 95.3 % with a 2 % edge, and Over 19.5 fouls at 94.9 %. All probabilities were expressed as percentages, and every pick was reported once.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
ML Vitebsk win✗ Miss
63.4%
Avg Implied 70.8% · @ 1.30
Edge
-7.4%
Best 5 market prices
Superbet
1.31
Pinnacle
1.30
William Hil
1.30
1xBet
1.30
Dafabet
1.30
Draw✓ Hit
23.0%
Avg Implied 18.8% · @ 4.89
Edge
+4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Superbet
5.10
1xBet
5.05
Marathonbet
5.05
Dafabet
5.00
Pinnacle
4.88
Bate Borisov win✗ Miss
13.6%
Avg Implied 10.3% · @ 8.88
Edge
+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Marathonbet
10.25
1xBet
10.10
William Hil
9.50
Pinnacle
8.68
Dafabet
8.60
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
ML Vitebsk
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.67
0.60
1.94
0.56
1.36
0.64
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (4)
1.00
0.50
1.50
0.00
0.50
1.00
vs Weaker (26)
1.77
0.62
2.00
0.64
1.50
0.58
Clean sheet %
53% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Bate Borisov) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Bate Borisov
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
1.60
1.40
1.47
1.20
1.73
vs Stronger (4)
1.25
1.50
1.50
1.00
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (20)
1.00
1.85
0.90
1.80
1.10
1.90
vs Weaker (6)
2.33
0.83
3.00
0.67
1.67
1.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (ML Vitebsk) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
76.9%
@ 1.19-0.2%
Under 1.5
23.1%
@ 4.00+0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.20
1xBet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.18
Under
Superbet
4.10
1xBet
3.95
Marathonbet
3.95
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
51.7%
@ 1.69-3.7%
Under 2.5
48.3%
@ 2.10+3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Dafabet
1.79
SBO
1.73
Pinnacle
1.67
1xBet
1.66
Marathonbet
1.66
Under
Marathonbet
2.18
1xBet
2.18
Pinnacle
2.15
Superbet
2.10
SBO
2.05
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
29.5%
@ 2.56-6.3%
Under 3.5
70.5%
@ 1.43+6.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.72
Superbet
2.62
1xBet
2.44
Marathonbet
2.44
Under
1xBet
1.44
Marathonbet
1.44
Superbet
1.43
Pinnacle
1.41
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
48.1%
@ 2.08+3.5%
No
51.9%
@ 1.67-3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Marathonbet
2.14
1xBet
2.14
Superbet
2.07
William Hil
1.95
No
William Hil
1.75
Superbet
1.67
1xBet
1.63
Marathonbet
1.62
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
12.2%@ 5.87+4.8%
1-0
11.5%@ 6.53+4.9%
1-1
11.0%@ 9.30+6.3%
2-1
9.7%@ 8.35+4.5%
3-0
7.9%@ 7.54+2.2%
0-0 ✓
7.4%@ 12.86+4.1%
3-1
6.3%@ 11.28+2.5%
0-1
4.1%@ 22.30+2.2%
ML Vitebsk goals ↓
Bate Borisov goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.4%
4.1%
2.0%
0.5%
0.1%
1
12%
11%
4.0%
1.1%
0.2%
2
12%
9.7%
3.9%
1.0%
0.2%
3
7.9%
6.3%
2.5%
0.7%
0.1%
4
3.9%
3.1%
1.2%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = ML Vitebsk goals (down), columns = Bate Borisov goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Isloch Minsk R.
2.67
FC Vitebsk
2.57
ML Vitebsk
2.00
Neman
1.67
Dinamo Brest
1.67
Bate Borisov
1.60
Dinamo Minsk
1.50
FC Minsk
1.50
Slavia Mozyr
1.40
FC Gomel
1.33
Baranovichi
1.29
Belshina
1.00
Naftan
0.67
Torpedo Zhodino
0.67
FC Dnepr Mogilev
0.57
Arsenal (Belarus)
0.43
ML Vitebsk is 0.40 points better than Bate Borisov in terms of average points per game (2.00 vs 1.60).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Dinamo Minsk
2.25
Dinamo Brest
2.00
FC Isloch Minsk R.
1.83
ML Vitebsk
1.50
Slavia Mozyr
1.40
FC Gomel
1.33
Baranovichi
1.29
FC Vitebsk
1.29
Naftan
1.17
FC Minsk
1.17
Bate Borisov
1.00
Neman
1.00
Belshina
0.83
FC Dnepr Mogilev
0.71
Arsenal (Belarus)
0.71
Torpedo Zhodino
0.67
ML Vitebsk is 0.50 goals better than Bate Borisov in terms of goals scored per game (1.50 vs 1.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Vitebsk
0.14
ML Vitebsk
0.50
FC Gomel
0.50
FC Isloch Minsk R.
0.67
Neman
0.67
Dinamo Minsk
0.75
Bate Borisov
1.00
Dinamo Brest
1.17
FC Minsk
1.17
Slavia Mozyr
1.20
Belshina
1.33
FC Dnepr Mogilev
1.43
Baranovichi
1.43
Torpedo Zhodino
1.67
Arsenal (Belarus)
2.43
Naftan
3.00
ML Vitebsk is 0.50 goals better than Bate Borisov in terms of goals conceded per game (0.50 vs 1.00).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
ML Vitebsk
63%
Dinamo Minsk
60%
Neman
58%
FC Gomel
55%
Torpedo Zhodino
54%
Dinamo Brest
52%
FC Dnepr Mogilev
50%
Slavia Mozyr
49%
Arsenal (Belarus)
48%
FC Minsk
48%
FC Isloch Minsk R.
47%
Bate Borisov
46%
FC Vitebsk
46%
Baranovichi
44%
Belshina
43%
Naftan
43%
ML Vitebsk is 16.5 percentage points better than Bate Borisov in terms of average possession (63% vs 46%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
ML Vitebsk
For 4.3 · Against 6.7 · Total 11.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 1.7 · Total 3.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 19.0 · Against 18.7 · Total 37.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Bate Borisov
For 3.0 · Against 8.3 · Total 11.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 2.2 · Total 3.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.0 · Against 14.3 · Total 26.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
ML Vitebsk
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.0
12.0
9.0
0.2
0.2
0.2
37.7
42.0
29.0
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (4)
8.5
8.0
9.0
2.8
3.0
2.5
39.0
49.0
29.0
vs Weaker (46)
16.0
16.0
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
35.0
35.0
-
% over line
33%
50%
0%
4%
4%
4%
100%
100%
100%
% under line
67%
50%
100%
96%
96%
96%
0%
0%
0%
This opponent (Bate Borisov) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Bate Borisov
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.3
-
11.3
3.2
3.0
3.4
26.3
-
26.3
vs Stronger (5)
-
-
-
2.2
1.0
3.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (35)
11.3
-
11.3
3.3
2.8
3.8
26.3
-
26.3
vs Weaker (10)
-
-
-
3.2
4.4
2.0
-
-
-
% over line
100%
-
100%
42%
40%
44%
100%
-
100%
% under line
0%
-
0%
58%
60%
56%
0%
-
0%
This opponent (ML Vitebsk) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
FC Gomel
11.7
Baranovichi
11.7
Bate Borisov
11.3
Dinamo Brest
11.3
Slavia Mozyr
11.2
Torpedo Zhodino
11.0
ML Vitebsk
11.0
Belshina
10.8
Naftan
10.7
Dinamo Minsk
10.4
FC Vitebsk
10.3
FC Isloch Minsk R.
10.0
FC Dnepr Mogilev
9.6
Arsenal (Belarus)
9.0
FC Minsk
8.6
Neman
8.6
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Belshina
4.8
ML Vitebsk
3.7
Bate Borisov
3.6
Slavia Mozyr
3.4
Arsenal (Belarus)
3.3
Dinamo Minsk
3.1
Naftan
3.1
FC Vitebsk
3.1
FC Gomel
3.0
Neman
2.9
FC Dnepr Mogilev
2.9
FC Minsk
2.9
FC Isloch Minsk R.
2.7
Dinamo Brest
2.7
Baranovichi
2.7
Torpedo Zhodino
2.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
ML Vitebsk
37.7
Torpedo Zhodino
32.0
Dinamo Brest
29.3
FC Gomel
28.5
Baranovichi
28.3
FC Isloch Minsk R.
27.0
Bate Borisov
26.3
Dinamo Minsk
25.8
Slavia Mozyr
24.8
FC Dnepr Mogilev
22.5
Naftan
21.7
Belshina
21.0
FC Vitebsk
20.0
Arsenal (Belarus)
19.7
Neman
19.0
FC Minsk
17.2
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
66.9%
@ 1.83+16.5%
Under 9.5
33.1%
@ 1.86-16.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.84
1xBet
1.82
Under
1xBet
1.88
Marathonbet
1.84
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
33.5%
Under 3.5
66.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
88.8%
Under 21.5
11.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
ML Vitebsk or Draw✓ Hit
86.4%
Avg Implied 89.6% · @ 1.03
Edge
-3.2%
63%
23%
14%
covers ML Vitebsk + Draw
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.05
Superbet
1.05
1xBet
1.03
Marathonbet
1.03
SBO
1.01
ML Vitebsk or Bate Borisov✗ Miss
77.0%
Avg Implied 81.7% · @ 1.13
Edge
-4.7%
63%
23%
14%
covers ML Vitebsk + Bate Borisov
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.17
1xBet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.14
Superbet
1.13
SBO
1.09
Draw or Bate Borisov✓ Hit
36.6%
Avg Implied 28.7% · @ 3.23
Edge
+7.9%
63%
23%
14%
covers Draw + Bate Borisov
Best 5 market prices
Marathonbet
3.38
1xBet
3.38
William Hil
3.30
Superbet
3.10
SBO
2.98
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
ML Vitebsk over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
85.7%
@ 1.07-0.4%
Under
14.3%
@ 6.65+0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.10
1xBet
1.05
Under
1xBet
7.30
Superbet
6.00
ML Vitebsk over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
57.9%
@ 1.46-6.1%
Under
42.1%
@ 2.60+6.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.57
Superbet
1.43
1xBet
1.42
Marathonbet
1.42
Under
1xBet
2.75
Marathonbet
2.75
Superbet
2.65
Pinnacle
2.24
ML Vitebsk over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
30.9%
@ 2.28-10.1%
Under
69.1%
@ 1.58+10.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.43
Superbet
2.30
Marathonbet
2.20
1xBet
2.20
Under
Marathonbet
1.63
1xBet
1.63
Superbet
1.55
Pinnacle
1.53
ML Vitebsk over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
13.3%
@ 3.94-10.0%
Under
86.7%
@ 1.20+10.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
4.25
1xBet
3.78
Marathonbet
3.78
Under
Marathonbet
1.21
1xBet
1.21
Superbet
1.18
Bate Borisov over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
54.9%
@ 1.92+6.5%
Under
45.1%
@ 1.80-6.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.97
1xBet
1.97
Superbet
1.88
Pinnacle
1.85
Under
Pinnacle
1.90
Superbet
1.83
1xBet
1.73
Marathonbet
1.73
Bate Borisov over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
19.0%
@ 5.47+2.0%
Under
81.0%
@ 1.12-2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.60
1xBet
5.60
Superbet
5.20
Under
Superbet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.12
1xBet
1.12
Bate Borisov over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
4.7%
@ 13.33-2.3%
Under
95.3%
@ 1.01+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
16.00
Marathonbet
12.00
1xBet
12.00
Under
Superbet
1.01
Bate Borisov over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
0.9%
Under
99.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to ML Vitebsk, so a minus line means ML Vitebsk give that many goals of a start and Bate Borisov receive them. At -1, ML Vitebsk must win by two or more to land; a one-goal ML Vitebsk win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (ML Vitebsk)Actual: Bate Borisov
ML Vitebsk -2
19.5%
@ 2.83-11.6%
Draw -2
19.9%
@ 4.05-1.8%
Bate Borisov +2
60.7%
@ 1.86+13.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
2.83
Draw
Marathonbet
4.05
Away
Marathonbet
1.86
Handicap -1 (ML Vitebsk)Actual: Bate Borisov
ML Vitebsk -1
39.3%
@ 1.78-10.6%
Draw -1
24.1%
@ 3.74+0.3%
Bate Borisov +1
36.6%
@ 3.38+10.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
1.78
Draw
Marathonbet
3.74
Away
Marathonbet
3.38
Handicap +1 (ML Vitebsk)Actual: ML Vitebsk
ML Vitebsk +1
86.4%
@ 1.10+13.7%
Draw +1
9.3%
@ 4.95-6.9%
Bate Borisov -1
4.3%
@ 7.20-6.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
1.10
Draw
Marathonbet
4.95
Away
Marathonbet
7.20
Handicap +2 (ML Vitebsk)Actual: ML Vitebsk
ML Vitebsk +2
95.7%
Draw +2
3.3%
Bate Borisov -2
1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
ML Vitebsk
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.23
1.12
0.19
0.57
0.29
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (4)
1.00
0.50
1.50
0.00
0.50
1.00
vs Weaker (26)
0.85
0.19
1.07
0.21
0.58
0.17
Clean sheet %
80% (+48pp vs league)
This opponent (Bate Borisov) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Bate Borisov
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.73
0.67
0.53
0.13
0.93
vs Stronger (4)
0.25
0.75
0.50
0.00
0.00
1.50
vs Similar (20)
0.25
0.85
0.40
0.70
0.10
1.00
vs Weaker (6)
1.00
0.33
1.67
0.33
0.33
0.33
Clean sheet %
57% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (ML Vitebsk) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
76.6%
@ 1.32+6.2%
Under 0.5
23.4%
@ 3.12-6.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.34
Marathonbet
1.34
Pinnacle
1.32
William Hil
1.30
Superbet
1.28
Under
Superbet
3.30
William Hil
3.20
Pinnacle
3.11
Marathonbet
2.99
1xBet
2.99
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
42.4%
@ 2.41+3.9%
Under 1.5
57.6%
@ 1.50-3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.50
Marathonbet
2.44
1xBet
2.44
Superbet
2.35
William Hil
2.30
Under
Superbet
1.53
William Hil
1.53
1xBet
1.49
Marathonbet
1.49
Pinnacle
1.47
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
15.0%
@ 5.46-1.9%
Under 2.5
85.0%
@ 1.10+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
6.00
Marathonbet
5.30
1xBet
5.30
Superbet
5.25
Under
Superbet
1.13
William Hil
1.11
Marathonbet
1.09
1xBet
1.09
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
ML Vitebsk over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
62.9%
@ 1.53+2.0%
Under
37.1%
@ 2.38-2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.65
Pinnacle
1.52
1xBet
1.49
Superbet
1.46
Under
Superbet
2.55
1xBet
2.45
Pinnacle
2.44
Marathonbet
2.08
ML Vitebsk over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
27.4%
@ 3.27-0.8%
Under
72.6%
@ 1.28+0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
3.30
Marathonbet
3.24
Under
Marathonbet
1.28
1xBet
1.28
ML Vitebsk over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
6.8%
@ 8.90-3.5%
Under
93.2%
@ 1.02+3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
8.90
Under
1xBet
1.02
Bate Borisov over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
29.7%
@ 3.35+2.1%
Under
70.3%
@ 1.28-2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
3.64
Superbet
3.30
1xBet
3.10
Under
1xBet
1.31
Superbet
1.29
Marathonbet
1.23
Bate Borisov over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
6.0%
@ 10.97-2.4%
Under
94.0%
@ 1.01+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
11.25
1xBet
10.70
Under
1xBet
1.01
Bate Borisov over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.7%
Under
99.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
ML Vitebsk
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.37
0.81
0.38
0.79
0.36
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (4)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
vs Weaker (26)
0.92
0.42
0.93
0.43
0.92
0.42
Clean sheet %
67% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Bate Borisov) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Bate Borisov
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.87
0.73
0.93
1.07
0.80
vs Stronger (4)
1.00
0.75
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.50
vs Similar (20)
0.75
1.00
0.50
1.10
1.00
0.90
vs Weaker (6)
1.33
0.50
1.33
0.33
1.33
0.67
Clean sheet %
43% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (ML Vitebsk) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
84.5%
@ 1.17+5.9%
Under 0.5
15.5%
@ 4.30-5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.20
Superbet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.15
1xBet
1.15
Under
Marathonbet
4.45
1xBet
4.45
Superbet
4.30
William Hil
4.00
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
51.5%
@ 1.87+1.8%
Under 1.5
48.5%
@ 1.85-1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.95
Superbet
1.88
1xBet
1.83
Marathonbet
1.83
Under
1xBet
1.92
Marathonbet
1.92
Superbet
1.82
William Hil
1.75
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
23.1%
@ 3.57-2.7%
Under 2.5
76.9%
@ 1.24+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
3.90
Superbet
3.70
Marathonbet
3.34
1xBet
3.34
Under
Marathonbet
1.26
1xBet
1.26
Superbet
1.23
William Hil
1.22
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
ML Vitebsk over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
74.3%
@ 1.35+5.9%
Under
25.7%
@ 2.94-5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.39
1xBet
1.32
Under
1xBet
3.10
Superbet
2.77
ML Vitebsk over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
36.5%
@ 2.44-1.4%
Under
63.5%
@ 1.49+1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.52
1xBet
2.48
Marathonbet
2.31
Under
Marathonbet
1.53
1xBet
1.47
Superbet
1.46
ML Vitebsk over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
15.3%
@ 5.90-0.3%
Under
84.7%
@ 1.09+0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
5.90
Under
1xBet
1.09
Bate Borisov over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
36.6%
@ 2.75+3.0%
Under
63.4%
@ 1.39-3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
2.84
Superbet
2.75
1xBet
2.65
Under
1xBet
1.42
Superbet
1.39
Marathonbet
1.36
Bate Borisov over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
7.8%
@ 10.38-1.1%
Under
92.2%
@ 1.01+1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
10.50
Marathonbet
10.25
Under
1xBet
1.01
Marathonbet
1.01
Bate Borisov over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
1.2%
Under
98.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
99.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
98.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
97.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
95.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
95.3%
1.01
Superbet
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.3%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
94.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
94.0%
1.01
1xBet
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.4%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
94.0%
1.03
1xBet
1.03
Marathonbet
1.03
-
-
-
+6.3%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
93.2%
1.02
1xBet
1.02
-
-
-
-
+3.5%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
92.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
92.2%
1.01
1xBet
1.01
Marathonbet
1.01
-
-
-
+1.1%
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
88.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
86.7%
1.20
Marathonbet
1.21
1xBet
1.21
Superbet
1.18
-
-
+10.0%
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
86.4%
1.03
William Hil
1.05
Superbet
1.05
1xBet
1.03
Marathonbet
1.03
SBO
1.01
-3.2%
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
86.4%
1.10
Marathonbet
1.10
-
-
-
-
+13.7%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
85.7%
1.07
Superbet
1.10
1xBet
1.05
-
-
-
-0.4%
✗ Miss
Under 4.5
85.6%
1.16
1xBet
1.16
Superbet
1.16
Marathonbet
1.16
-
-
+6.9%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
85.0%
1.10
Superbet
1.13
William Hil
1.11
Marathonbet
1.09
1xBet
1.09
-
+1.9%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
84.7%
1.09
1xBet
1.09
-
-
-
-
+0.3%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
84.5%
1.17
William Hil
1.20
Superbet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.15
1xBet
1.15
-
+5.9%
✗ Miss
Under 4.5 cards
82.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Away under 1.5 goals
81.0%
1.12
Superbet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.12
1xBet
1.12
-
-
-2.0%
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
79.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
77.5%
1.48
Marathonbet
1.48
1xBet
1.47
-
-
-
+15.7%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
77.0%
1.13
William Hil
1.17
1xBet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.14
Superbet
1.13
SBO
1.09
-4.7%
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
76.9%
1.19
Superbet
1.20
1xBet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.18
-
-
-0.2%
✗ Miss
Under 2.5 2H goals
76.9%
1.24
Marathonbet
1.26
1xBet
1.26
Superbet
1.23
William Hil
1.22
-
+2.7%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 HT goals
76.6%
1.32
1xBet
1.34
Marathonbet
1.34
Pinnacle
1.32
William Hil
1.30
Superbet
1.28
+6.2%
✗ Miss
Home over 0.5 2H goals
74.3%
1.35
Superbet
1.39
1xBet
1.32
-
-
-
+5.9%
✗ Miss
Home under 1.5 HT goals
72.6%
1.28
Marathonbet
1.28
1xBet
1.28
-
-
-
+0.8%
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
70.5%
1.43
1xBet
1.44
Marathonbet
1.44
Superbet
1.43
Pinnacle
1.41
-
+6.3%
✓ Hit
Away under 0.5 HT goals
70.3%
1.28
1xBet
1.31
Superbet
1.29
Marathonbet
1.23
-
-
-2.1%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MV (26)
€14m
DM (27)
€9m
DB (23)
€7m
TZ (31)
€5m
BB (26)
€4m
SM (25)
€4m
FG (23)
€4m
NEM (28)
€4m
FIM (23)
€4m
FM (25)
€3m
FDM (25)
€3m
FV (24)
€3m
BAR (21)
€2m
NAF (21)
€2m
BEL (16)
€2m
A( (17)
€2m
ML Vitebsk's squad is €9m more valuable than Bate Borisov's (€14m vs €4m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MV (9)
€6m
DM (8)
€3m
DB (5)
€2m
FG (8)
€2m
FV (13)
€2m
TZ (10)
€2m
BB (8)
€1m
FDM (9)
€1m
NEM (9)
€1m
FM (9)
€1m
FIM (8)
€1m
BAR (8)
€1m
SM (5)
€1m
BEL (6)
€1m
A( (5)
€1m
NAF (4)
€0m
ML Vitebsk's attack is €4m more valuable than Bate Borisov's (€6m vs €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MV (6)
€3m
DM (8)
€2m
NEM (9)
€2m
TZ (7)
€2m
BB (9)
€2m
DB (5)
€1m
SM (10)
€1m
FIM (8)
€1m
NAF (9)
€1m
FG (5)
€1m
FDM (6)
€1m
FM (5)
€1m
BAR (4)
€0m
A( (5)
€0m
BEL (2)
€0m
FV (3)
€0m
ML Vitebsk's midfield is €1m more valuable than Bate Borisov's (€3m vs €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MV (11)
€5m
DM (11)
€3m
DB (13)
€3m
TZ (14)
€2m
SM (10)
€2m
FIM (7)
€2m
FM (11)
€1m
FG (10)
€1m
BB (9)
€1m
FDM (10)
€1m
FV (8)
€1m
BAR (9)
€1m
NEM (10)
€1m
BEL (8)
€1m
A( (7)
€1m
NAF (8)
€1m
ML Vitebsk's defence is €4m more valuable than Bate Borisov's (€5m vs €1m).
Belarus: Premier League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Belarus: Premier League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
FC Vitebsk
FC Isloch Minsk R.
Dinamo Brest
Neman
FC Minsk
Baranovichi
FC Gomel
Slavia Mozyr
Dinamo Minsk
Belshina
FC Dnepr Mogilev
Torpedo Zhodino
Naftan
Arsenal (Belarus)