ML Vitebsk are tipped to win this Belarus Premier League clash, with a 57% chance of taking the points at home, a 27% chance of a draw and only a 16% chance of Neman pulling off the upset. The model expects a modest 2.3 goals in total, with the most likely scoreline 1-0 for the hosts at a 14.5% probability. Vitebsk have been strong at home, averaging 1.79 goals scored and conceding just 0.57 against weaker opposition, while Neman, on a three-game winning streak, have been solid away, scoring 1.79 and conceding 0.57 against stronger teams. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 goals at 99.7%, Away under 3.5 goals at 99.4%, Under 6.5 at 99.0%, Under 5.5 at 96.8%, Away under 2.5 goals at 96.3%, Over 19.5 fouls at 96.0%, Home +2 handicap at 95.3%, and Under 5.5 cards at 92.3%. These picks reflect the expectation of a low-scoring, defensive affair dominated by the home side.
Advertisement
🎯 1. Model Analysis
ML Vitebsk win
55.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
27.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Neman win
16.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
ML Vitebsk
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.63
0.60
1.75
0.56
1.50
0.64
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (4)
1.00
0.50
1.50
0.00
0.50
1.00
vs Weaker (26)
1.73
0.62
1.79
0.64
1.67
0.58
Clean sheet %
53% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Neman) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Neman
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
1.20
1.40
0.60
1.13
1.80
vs Stronger (1)
3.00
1.00
3.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (22)
1.05
1.23
1.25
0.58
0.80
2.00
vs Weaker (7)
1.71
1.14
1.50
0.50
1.80
1.40
Clean sheet %
27% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (ML Vitebsk) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
68.1%
Under 1.5
31.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
40.4%
Under 2.5
59.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
20.1%
Under 3.5
79.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
42.8%
No
57.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0
14.4%
1-1
12.8%
2-0
12.0%
0-0
11.2%
2-1
9.0%
0-1
6.4%
3-0
6.2%
3-1
4.7%
ML Vitebsk goals ↓
Neman goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
11%
6.4%
2.8%
0.7%
0.1%
1
14%
13%
4.4%
1.1%
0.2%
2
12%
9.0%
3.4%
0.9%
0.2%
3
6.2%
4.7%
1.8%
0.4%
0.1%
4
2.4%
1.8%
0.7%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = ML Vitebsk goals (down), columns = Neman goals (across).
Advertisement
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Isloch Minsk R.
2.67
FC Vitebsk
2.57
ML Vitebsk
2.00
Neman
1.67
Dinamo Brest
1.67
Bate Borisov
1.60
Dinamo Minsk
1.50
FC Minsk
1.50
Slavia Mozyr
1.40
FC Gomel
1.33
Baranovichi
1.29
Belshina
1.00
Naftan
0.67
Torpedo Zhodino
0.67
FC Dnepr Mogilev
0.57
Arsenal (Belarus)
0.43
ML Vitebsk is 0.33 points better than Neman in terms of average points per game (2.00 vs 1.67).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Dinamo Minsk
2.25
Dinamo Brest
2.00
FC Isloch Minsk R.
1.83
ML Vitebsk
1.50
Slavia Mozyr
1.40
FC Gomel
1.33
Baranovichi
1.29
FC Vitebsk
1.29
Naftan
1.17
FC Minsk
1.17
Bate Borisov
1.00
Neman
1.00
Belshina
0.83
FC Dnepr Mogilev
0.71
Arsenal (Belarus)
0.71
Torpedo Zhodino
0.67
ML Vitebsk is 0.50 goals better than Neman in terms of goals scored per game (1.50 vs 1.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Vitebsk
0.14
ML Vitebsk
0.50
FC Gomel
0.50
FC Isloch Minsk R.
0.67
Neman
0.67
Dinamo Minsk
0.75
Bate Borisov
1.00
Dinamo Brest
1.17
FC Minsk
1.17
Slavia Mozyr
1.20
Belshina
1.33
FC Dnepr Mogilev
1.43
Baranovichi
1.43
Torpedo Zhodino
1.67
Arsenal (Belarus)
2.43
Naftan
3.00
ML Vitebsk is 0.17 goals better than Neman in terms of goals conceded per game (0.50 vs 0.67).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
ML Vitebsk
63%
Dinamo Minsk
60%
Neman
58%
FC Gomel
55%
Torpedo Zhodino
54%
Dinamo Brest
52%
FC Dnepr Mogilev
50%
Slavia Mozyr
49%
Arsenal (Belarus)
48%
FC Minsk
48%
FC Isloch Minsk R.
47%
Bate Borisov
46%
FC Vitebsk
46%
Baranovichi
44%
Belshina
43%
Naftan
43%
ML Vitebsk is 4.8 percentage points better than Neman in terms of average possession (63% vs 58%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
ML Vitebsk
For 7.2 · Against 4.5 · Total 11.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.2 · Against 2.2 · Total 4.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 15.0 · Against 16.5 · Total 31.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Neman
For 4.6 · Against 5.0 · Total 9.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 1.9 · Total 3.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.0 · Against 12.8 · Total 24.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
ML Vitebsk
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.7
12.5
10.0
0.5
0.6
0.4
31.5
33.8
27.0
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (5)
8.5
8.0
9.0
2.2
2.0
2.5
39.0
49.0
29.0
vs Weaker (45)
13.2
14.0
11.0
0.3
0.4
0.3
27.8
28.7
25.0
% over line
67%
75%
50%
10%
12%
8%
83%
75%
100%
% under line
33%
25%
50%
90%
88%
92%
17%
25%
0%
This opponent (Neman) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Neman
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.6
7.2
10.0
2.3
2.6
2.0
21.8
22.7
21.0
vs Stronger (2)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (33)
9.5
9.0
10.0
2.6
3.2
1.9
25.8
30.5
21.0
vs Weaker (15)
6.0
2.0
10.0
2.0
1.5
2.6
14.0
7.0
21.0
% over line
50%
25%
75%
30%
36%
24%
50%
67%
33%
% under line
50%
75%
25%
70%
64%
76%
50%
33%
67%
This opponent (ML Vitebsk) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Bate Borisov
11.8
Baranovichi
11.8
FC Gomel
11.8
ML Vitebsk
11.7
FC Isloch Minsk R.
11.0
Dinamo Brest
11.0
Belshina
10.9
Dinamo Minsk
10.9
Slavia Mozyr
10.8
Torpedo Zhodino
10.2
Naftan
10.2
FC Dnepr Mogilev
10.0
FC Vitebsk
9.8
FC Minsk
9.7
Arsenal (Belarus)
9.0
Neman
8.6
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Belshina
4.8
ML Vitebsk
4.3
Bate Borisov
3.6
Slavia Mozyr
3.4
Arsenal (Belarus)
3.4
Dinamo Minsk
3.2
Neman
3.1
FC Gomel
3.1
FC Vitebsk
3.1
Naftan
3.0
FC Minsk
2.9
Dinamo Brest
2.9
FC Dnepr Mogilev
2.8
Baranovichi
2.8
FC Isloch Minsk R.
2.7
Torpedo Zhodino
2.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
ML Vitebsk
31.5
Torpedo Zhodino
30.5
FC Gomel
28.7
Baranovichi
28.2
Dinamo Brest
27.8
Slavia Mozyr
27.0
Bate Borisov
26.2
Dinamo Minsk
26.0
FC Isloch Minsk R.
25.8
FC Dnepr Mogilev
22.5
Neman
21.8
Belshina
21.8
Arsenal (Belarus)
21.4
Naftan
21.4
FC Vitebsk
20.2
FC Minsk
17.3
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
73.0%
Under 9.5
27.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
34.9%
Under 3.5
65.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
85.9%
Under 21.5
14.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
ML Vitebsk or Draw
83.1%
Avg Implied -
55%
28%
17%
covers ML Vitebsk + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
ML Vitebsk or Neman
72.1%
Avg Implied -
55%
28%
17%
covers ML Vitebsk + Neman
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Neman
44.8%
Avg Implied -
55%
28%
17%
covers Draw + Neman
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
ML Vitebsk over/under 0.5
Over
78.8%
Under
21.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ML Vitebsk over/under 1.5
Over
45.9%
Under
54.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ML Vitebsk over/under 2.5
Over
20.4%
Under
79.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ML Vitebsk over/under 3.5
Over
7.2%
Under
92.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neman over/under 0.5
Over
52.8%
Under
47.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neman over/under 1.5
Over
17.4%
Under
82.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neman over/under 2.5
Over
4.1%
Under
95.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neman over/under 3.5
Over
0.7%
Under
99.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to ML Vitebsk, so a minus line means ML Vitebsk give that many goals of a start and Neman receive them. At -1, ML Vitebsk must win by two or more to land; a one-goal ML Vitebsk win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (ML Vitebsk)
ML Vitebsk -2
12.5%
Draw -2
17.4%
Neman +2
70.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (ML Vitebsk)
ML Vitebsk -1
29.9%
Draw -1
25.3%
Neman +1
44.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (ML Vitebsk)
ML Vitebsk +1
83.1%
Draw +1
11.7%
Neman -1
5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (ML Vitebsk)
ML Vitebsk +2
94.8%
Draw +2
4.1%
Neman -2
1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
ML Vitebsk
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.27
1.12
0.19
0.57
0.36
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (4)
1.00
0.50
1.50
0.00
0.50
1.00
vs Weaker (26)
0.85
0.23
1.07
0.21
0.58
0.25
Clean sheet %
77% (+45pp vs league)
This opponent (Neman) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Neman
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.67
0.20
0.27
0.47
1.07
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (22)
0.18
0.64
0.17
0.17
0.20
1.20
vs Weaker (7)
0.71
0.71
0.00
0.50
1.00
0.80
Clean sheet %
50% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (ML Vitebsk) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
ML Vitebsk over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ML Vitebsk over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ML Vitebsk over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neman over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neman over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neman over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
ML Vitebsk
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.33
0.62
0.38
0.93
0.29
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (4)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
vs Weaker (26)
0.88
0.38
0.71
0.43
1.08
0.33
Clean sheet %
70% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Neman) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Neman
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.53
1.20
0.33
0.67
0.73
vs Stronger (1)
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (22)
0.86
0.59
1.08
0.42
0.60
0.80
vs Weaker (7)
1.00
0.43
1.50
0.00
0.80
0.60
Clean sheet %
63% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (ML Vitebsk) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
ML Vitebsk over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ML Vitebsk over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ML Vitebsk over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neman over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neman over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neman over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
99.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
97.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
95.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
94.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 19.5 fouls
93.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
92.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
91.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
91.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 21.5 fouls
85.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
83.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
83.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
82.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 8.5 corners
82.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5 cards
81.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
79.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
79.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
78.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 23.5 fouls
74.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 9.5 corners
73.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
72.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
70.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Advertisement
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MV (26)
€14m
DM (27)
€9m
DB (23)
€7m
TZ (31)
€5m
BB (26)
€4m
SM (25)
€4m
FG (23)
€4m
NEM (28)
€4m
FIM (23)
€4m
FM (25)
€3m
FDM (25)
€3m
FV (24)
€3m
BAR (21)
€2m
NAF (21)
€2m
BEL (16)
€2m
A( (17)
€2m
ML Vitebsk's squad is €10m more valuable than Neman's (€14m vs €4m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MV (9)
€6m
DM (8)
€3m
DB (5)
€2m
FG (8)
€2m
FV (13)
€2m
TZ (10)
€2m
BB (8)
€1m
FDM (9)
€1m
NEM (9)
€1m
FM (9)
€1m
FIM (8)
€1m
BAR (8)
€1m
SM (5)
€1m
BEL (6)
€1m
A( (5)
€1m
NAF (4)
€0m
ML Vitebsk's attack is €5m more valuable than Neman's (€6m vs €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MV (6)
€3m
DM (8)
€2m
NEM (9)
€2m
TZ (7)
€2m
BB (9)
€2m
DB (5)
€1m
SM (10)
€1m
FIM (8)
€1m
NAF (9)
€1m
FG (5)
€1m
FDM (6)
€1m
FM (5)
€1m
BAR (4)
€0m
A( (5)
€0m
BEL (2)
€0m
FV (3)
€0m
ML Vitebsk and Neman have a similar midfield value (both €3m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MV (11)
€5m
DM (11)
€3m
DB (13)
€3m
TZ (14)
€2m
SM (10)
€2m
FIM (7)
€2m
FM (11)
€1m
FG (10)
€1m
BB (9)
€1m
FDM (10)
€1m
FV (8)
€1m
BAR (9)
€1m
NEM (10)
€1m
BEL (8)
€1m
A( (7)
€1m
NAF (8)
€1m
ML Vitebsk's defence is €4m more valuable than Neman's (€5m vs €1m).
Belarus: Premier League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Belarus: Premier League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
FC Vitebsk
FC Isloch Minsk R.
Dinamo Brest
FC Minsk
Baranovichi
FC Gomel
Bate Borisov
Slavia Mozyr
Dinamo Minsk
Belshina
FC Dnepr Mogilev
Torpedo Zhodino
Naftan
Arsenal (Belarus)