PythiaFootballBETA
Mlada Boleslav, coming off a draw, hosts Slovacko, who have suffered two consecutive defeats. The home side has a similar strength to their opponents, scoring 1.33 goals and conceding 1.42 on average at home. Slovacko, meanwhile, has a similar strength away, scoring 1 goal and conceding 0.83 on average.
The model predicts a home win, with a 47% chance of Mlada Boleslav taking the three points. The draw is seen as a 28% possibility, while an away win for Slovacko is 25%. The expected total number of goals is 2.6, with the most likely total being 2 goals.
The most likely score is 1-1, with a 13.2% probability. Mlada Boleslav's home scoring and conceding averages are 1.33 and 1.42, respectively, while Slovacko's away scoring and conceding averages are 1 and 0.83.
The model's selection is the Under 3.5, with a 72.5% chance, indicating a slight edge of 8%. Other model selections include Over 21.5 fouls, with an 83.1% chance, and Over 1.5, with a 75.4% chance. The probabilities for the home win, draw, and away win are 47%, 28%, and 25%, respectively.
The win for Mlada Boleslav extends their unbeaten run, keeping the home side’s confidence high. The model’s favourite, a Home win with a 49 % probability, proved correct as the final score was 2-1. The predicted 2-1 outcome matched the actual result, confirming the model’s accuracy. Every suggested pick also hit: Under 7.5 goals at 99.4 %, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 99.0 %, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 98.2 %, Under 6.5 at 98.1 %, Away under 3.5 goals at 97.5 %, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 96.5 %, Under 5.5 at 94.7 %, and Home under 2.5 2H goals at 93.3 %. All selections performed as forecasted, underscoring the model’s reliability.
Mlada Boleslav| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.37 | 1.20 | 1.36 | 1.36 | 1.38 | 1.06 |
| vs Stronger (5) | 0.80 | 1.60 | 1.00 | 0.67 | 0.50 | 3.00 |
| vs Similar (25) | 1.48 | 1.12 | 1.45 | 1.55 | 1.50 | 0.79 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 40% (+13pp vs league) | |||||
Slovácko| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.13 | 1.63 | 1.50 | 1.50 | 0.81 | 1.75 |
| vs Stronger (10) | 1.30 | 2.50 | 1.60 | 1.60 | 1.00 | 3.40 |
| vs Similar (20) | 1.05 | 1.20 | 1.44 | 1.44 | 0.73 | 1.00 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 23% (-4pp vs league) | |||||
| Slovácko goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 7.3% | 5.7% | 3.8% | 1.4% | 0.4% |
| 1 | 9.2% | 13% | 6.4% | 2.4% | 0.7% |
| 2 | 8.6% | 9.6% | 5.3% | 2.0% | 0.6% |
| 3 | 4.8% | 5.3% | 3.0% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| 4 | 2.0% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
Mlada BoleslavSlováckoMlada Boleslav| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 11.2 | 11.3 | 11.0 | 3.4 | 3.6 | 3.2 | 25.3 | 25.7 | 24.8 |
| vs Stronger (8) | 9.3 | 10.5 | 7.7 | 4.0 | 3.2 | 5.3 | 24.9 | 26.2 | 23.0 |
| vs Similar (41) | 11.5 | 11.5 | 11.4 | 3.2 | 3.7 | 2.8 | 25.3 | 25.6 | 25.0 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 13.0 | - | 13.0 | 5.0 | - | 5.0 | 27.0 | - | 27.0 |
| % over line | 58% | 52% | 64% | 46% | 50% | 42% | 80% | 87% | 73% |
| % under line | 42% | 48% | 36% | 54% | 50% | 58% | 20% | 13% | 27% |
Slovácko| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 10.3 | 10.3 | 10.2 | 3.5 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 26.3 | 27.7 | 25.0 |
| vs Stronger (16) | 9.7 | 8.8 | 10.6 | 4.2 | 5.0 | 3.4 | 27.6 | 29.9 | 25.4 |
| vs Similar (34) | 10.5 | 11.1 | 10.1 | 3.1 | 3.4 | 2.9 | 25.6 | 26.5 | 24.8 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| % over line | 62% | 65% | 58% | 46% | 57% | 37% | 85% | 91% | 79% |
| % under line | 38% | 35% | 42% | 54% | 43% | 63% | 15% | 9% | 21% |
Mlada Boleslav| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.57 | 0.53 | 0.50 | 0.64 | 0.62 | 0.44 |
| vs Stronger (5) | 0.40 | 0.80 | 0.67 | 0.67 | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (25) | 0.60 | 0.48 | 0.45 | 0.64 | 0.71 | 0.36 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 57% (+29pp vs league) | |||||
Slovácko| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.57 | 0.87 | 0.79 | 0.71 | 0.38 | 1.00 |
| vs Stronger (10) | 0.60 | 1.40 | 0.40 | 0.60 | 0.80 | 2.20 |
| vs Similar (20) | 0.55 | 0.60 | 1.00 | 0.78 | 0.18 | 0.45 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 40% (+13pp vs league) | |||||
Mlada Boleslav| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.80 | 0.67 | 0.86 | 0.71 | 0.75 | 0.62 |
| vs Stronger (5) | 0.40 | 0.80 | 0.33 | 0.00 | 0.50 | 2.00 |
| vs Similar (25) | 0.88 | 0.64 | 1.00 | 0.91 | 0.79 | 0.43 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 57% (+29pp vs league) | |||||
Slovácko| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.57 | 0.77 | 0.71 | 0.79 | 0.44 | 0.75 |
| vs Stronger (10) | 0.70 | 1.10 | 1.20 | 1.00 | 0.20 | 1.20 |
| vs Similar (20) | 0.50 | 0.60 | 0.44 | 0.67 | 0.55 | 0.55 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 43% (+16pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 7.5 | 99.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Away under 2.5 HT goals | 99.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Away under 2.5 2H goals | 98.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 6.5 | 98.1% | 1.01 | 1.02 | 1.01 | 1.01 | 1.01 | - | +3.1% | ✓ Hit |
| Away under 3.5 goals | 97.5% | 1.01 | 1.02 | 1.01 | 1.01 | 1.01 | - | +2.7% | ✓ Hit |
| Home under 2.5 HT goals | 96.5% | 1.02 | 1.03 | 1.02 | 1.02 | - | - | +4.8% | ✓ Hit |
| Under 5.5 | 94.7% | 1.04 | 1.07 | 1.05 | 1.05 | 1.05 | 1.04 | +4.8% | ✓ Hit |
| Home under 2.5 2H goals | 93.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Away under 1.5 HT goals | 92.6% | 1.05 | 1.07 | 1.06 | 1.05 | 1.04 | 1.04 | +4.3% | ✓ Hit |
| Home under 3.5 goals | 92.6% | 1.07 | 1.09 | 1.08 | 1.07 | 1.06 | 1.06 | +5.7% | ✓ Hit |
| Over 19.5 fouls | 92.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Away under 2.5 goals | 90.4% | 1.07 | 1.09 | 1.08 | 1.08 | 1.07 | 1.07 | +3.6% | ✓ Hit |
| Home +2 handicap | 90.0% | 1.05 | 1.06 | 1.05 | - | - | - | +2.8% | ✓ Hit |
| Away under 1.5 2H goals | 89.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 2.5 HT goals | 88.8% | 1.10 | 1.13 | 1.12 | 1.11 | 1.11 | 1.08 | +4.7% | ✓ Hit |
| Under 4.5 | 87.0% | 1.15 | 1.18 | 1.17 | 1.15 | 1.15 | 1.15 | +5.9% | ✓ Hit |
| Over 21.5 fouls | 83.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Home under 1.5 HT goals | 82.6% | 1.17 | 1.18 | 1.18 | 1.18 | 1.16 | 1.16 | +3.5% | ✓ Hit |
| Under 2.5 2H goals | 82.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 5.5 cards | 79.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Home under 2.5 goals | 79.2% | 1.29 | 1.31 | 1.30 | 1.30 | 1.30 | 1.29 | +7.3% | ✓ Hit |
| Home over 0.5 goals | 79.1% | 1.14 | 1.17 | 1.15 | 1.14 | 1.14 | 1.14 | -2.3% | ✓ Hit |
| Home under 1.5 2H goals | 77.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 1.5 | 77.7% | 1.21 | 1.25 | 1.23 | 1.22 | 1.22 | 1.22 | +0.6% | ✓ Hit |
| Over 0.5 2H goals | 77.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 2.5 cards | 75.5% | 1.23 | 1.23 | - | - | - | - | +3.0% | ✓ Hit |
| Away +2 handicap | 75.0% | 1.32 | 1.33 | 1.32 | 1.32 | 1.31 | 1.30 | +7.0% | ✓ Hit |
| Home or Draw | 74.9% | 1.21 | 1.26 | 1.25 | 1.25 | 1.22 | 1.22 | -2.0% | ✓ Hit |
| Home +1 handicap | 74.9% | 1.22 | 1.25 | 1.23 | 1.21 | 1.20 | - | +1.4% | ✓ Hit |
| Home or Away | 72.4% | 1.25 | 1.30 | 1.28 | 1.27 | 1.27 | 1.27 | -2.0% | ✓ Hit |
| Under 11.5 corners | 72.3% | 1.43 | 1.47 | 1.43 | 1.42 | 1.41 | 1.41 | +8.1% | ✓ Hit |
| Over 23.5 fouls | 71.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Away under 1.5 goals | 70.5% | 1.37 | 1.40 | 1.40 | 1.40 | 1.38 | 1.37 | +2.9% | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16/05/26 | A | 0-3 | |
| 07/03/26 | A | 2-2 | |
| 04/10/25 | H | 0-0 | |
| 25/05/25 | H | 2-2 | |
| 23/11/24 | A | 1-1 | |
| 28/07/24 | H | 3-0 | |
| 14/05/24 | H | 0-1 | |
| 16/12/23 | H | 0-1 |
Mlada Boleslav| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 08/08/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 02/08/26 | A | 2-2 | |
| 27/07/26 | A | 2-4 | |
| 23/05/26 | H | 0-2 | |
| 16/05/26 | A | 0-3 | |
| 12/05/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 09/05/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 02/05/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 25/04/26 | A | 0-3 |
Slovácko| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 09/08/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 01/08/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 26/07/26 | A | 5-1 | |
| 31/05/26 | H | 3-0 | |
| 27/05/26 | A | 1-4 | |
| 23/05/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 16/05/26 | H | 0-3 | |
| 12/05/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 09/05/26 | A | 0-1 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 |  Slavia Praha | 6 | 14 | 67% | 2.3 | 17 | 5 | +12 | 3.7 | 100% | 83% | 50% | 11.0 | 50% | 3.5 | 50% | 29.3 | 100% | 123 | 27 | 35 | 61 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 54% |
| 2 |  Slovan Liberec | 6 | 13 | 67% | 2.2 | 8 | 3 | +5 | 1.8 | 50% | 17% | 17% | 9.8 | 50% | 6.7 | 100% | 28.0 | 83% | 27 | 17 | 4 | 5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 47% |
| 3 | Mlada Boleslav | 5 | 11 | 60% | 2.2 | 11 | 6 | +5 | 3.4 | 100% | 60% | 40% | 11.0 | 60% | 3.2 | 40% | 28.4 | 80% | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 50% |
| 4 |  Zbrojovka Brno | 5 | 10 | 60% | 2.0 | 9 | 5 | +4 | 2.8 | 80% | 40% | 40% | 9.2 | 40% | 3.8 | 50% | 21.8 | 60% | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 45% |
| 5 |  Sigma Olomouc | 6 | 10 | 50% | 1.7 | 10 | 8 | +2 | 3.0 | 83% | 83% | 33% | 9.3 | 50% | 2.8 | 17% | 24.7 | 50% | 30 | 7 | 10 | 12 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 58% |
| 6 |  Teplice | 6 | 10 | 50% | 1.7 | 12 | 12 | +0 | 4.0 | 83% | 50% | 50% | 10.3 | 50% | 4.3 | 33% | 26.2 | 83% | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 49% |
| 7 |  Sparta Praha | 6 | 9 | 50% | 1.5 | 12 | 10 | +2 | 3.7 | 100% | 83% | 67% | 11.5 | 50% | 3.2 | 40% | 27.8 | 83% | 92 | 43 | 27 | 22 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 65% |
| 8 |  FK Jablonec | 4 | 9 | 75% | 2.2 | 5 | 3 | +2 | 2.0 | 75% | 25% | 0% | 8.8 | 25% | 3.2 | 25% | 31.2 | 100% | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 54% |
| 9 |  Baník Ostrava | 5 | 9 | 60% | 1.8 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 2.0 | 40% | 40% | 20% | 9.6 | 20% | 3.4 | 20% | 24.2 | 60% | 19 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 47% |
| 10 |  Hradec Králové | 4 | 7 | 50% | 1.8 | 4 | 4 | +0 | 2.0 | 75% | 50% | 0% | 10.0 | 50% | 4.2 | 75% | 26.8 | 75% | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 53% |
| 11 |  Plzen | 5 | 6 | 20% | 1.2 | 11 | 12 | -1 | 4.6 | 100% | 60% | 60% | 7.8 | 0% | 6.4 | 80% | 27.2 | 80% | 57 | 15 | 22 | 20 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 59% |
| 12 |  Bohemians 1905 | 4 | 5 | 25% | 1.2 | 5 | 5 | +0 | 2.5 | 75% | 50% | 50% | 11.8 | 75% | 3.5 | 50% | 28.0 | 75% | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 44% |
| 13 |  Artis | 6 | 4 | 17% | 0.7 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 3.2 | 83% | 67% | 33% | 7.7 | 17% | 3.3 | 50% | 27.5 | 83% | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 1.0 | 2.2 | 42% |
| 14 | Slovácko | 6 | 2 | 0% | 0.3 | 5 | 12 | -7 | 2.8 | 83% | 50% | 17% | 8.2 | 33% | 5.0 | 50% | 34.5 | 100% | 8 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 0.8 | 2.0 | 48% |
| 15 |  Pardubice | 6 | 1 | 0% | 0.2 | 5 | 12 | -7 | 2.8 | 100% | 67% | 17% | 9.3 | 33% | 3.7 | 50% | 28.5 | 100% | 14 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 0.8 | 2.0 | 40% |
| 16 |  Zlin | 6 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 5 | 13 | -8 | 3.0 | 67% | 50% | 50% | 8.8 | 33% | 3.7 | 33% | 29.5 | 83% | 7 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0.8 | 2.2 | 43% |