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Mladost DG vs Arsenal Tivat Result & Analysis

Date: 27/09/2025
Time: 16:00
Final 2-0
Mladost DG
Mladost DG
Vs
57%
25%
18%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Arsenal Tivat
Arsenal Tivat
Montenegro: First League
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table

šŸŽÆ 1. Model Analysis

Mladost DG wināœ“ Hit
56.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Drawāœ— Miss
25.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Arsenal Tivat wināœ— Miss
18.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

āš½ 2. Goal Analysis

Mladost DGMladost DG

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-512L40W23L22D52W12L31W04L01L13LA·MLA18/05H·IBA24/05A·DEČ04/08A·BOK10/08H·JED17/08A·MOR24/08H·BUD31/08A·PET13/09H·JEZ17/09A·SUT21/09← Second LeagueFirst League →
Avg total
3.9
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
2.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.671.201.790.711.561.62
vs Stronger (1)3.001.003.001.00--
vs Similar (18)1.721.112.120.381.401.70
vs Weaker (11)1.451.361.001.201.831.50
Clean sheet %43% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Arsenal Tivat) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Arsenal TivatArsenal Tivat

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-400D40W20W22D10W00D22D02L21W11DA·LOV30/05H·LOV04/06H·JED04/08A·MOR10/08H·BUD18/08A·PET24/08H·JEZ30/08A·SUT13/09H·BOK17/09H·DEČ21/09
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.931.231.311.000.501.50
vs Stronger (6)0.502.501.002.000.003.00
vs Similar (22)0.951.001.170.830.701.20
vs Weaker (2)2.000.004.000.000.000.00
Clean sheet %37% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Mladost DG) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%13%19%26%8%016%126%222%315%48%56%6+
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
76.2%
Under 1.5
23.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
50.5%
Under 2.5
49.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
28.5%
Under 3.5
71.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
51.0%
No
49.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.1%
1-0
10.9%
2-0 āœ“
10.7%
2-1
9.8%
0-0
7.9%
3-0
6.3%
3-1
5.8%
0-1
5.1%
Mladost DG goals ↓
Arsenal Tivat goals →
01234
07.9%5.1%2.8%0.9%0.2%
111%12%5.0%1.5%0.4%
211%9.8%4.5%1.4%0.3%
36.3%5.8%2.7%0.8%0.2%
42.8%2.6%1.2%0.4%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Mladost DG goals (down), columns = Arsenal Tivat goals (across).

šŸ’Ŗ 3. Team Strengths Analysis

šŸ† Total PPG

Points / game
Sutjeska
2.00
Mornar
1.92
Petrovac
1.42
Dečić
1.42
Buducnost Podgorica
1.33
Arsenal Tivat
1.28
Mladost DG
1.28
Jezero
1.24
Bokelj
1.05
Jedinstvo
0.97
Grbalj
0.50
Iskra (Montenegro)
0.00
Mladost DG and Arsenal Tivat are level in average points per game (both 1.28).

āš”ļø Attack

Goals scored / game
Sutjeska
1.69
Mornar
1.42
Mladost DG
1.36
Petrovac
1.22
Jezero
1.21
Dečić
1.19
Bokelj
1.05
Buducnost Podgorica
1.00
Arsenal Tivat
1.00
Jedinstvo
0.83
Iskra (Montenegro)
0.50
Grbalj
0.00
Mladost DG is 0.36 goals better than Arsenal Tivat in terms of goals scored per game (1.36 vs 1.00).

šŸ›”ļø Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Mornar
0.81
Buducnost Podgorica
0.97
Grbalj
1.00
Petrovac
1.00
Sutjeska
1.00
Dečić
1.25
Bokelj
1.26
Arsenal Tivat
1.28
Jezero
1.29
Jedinstvo
1.36
Mladost DG
1.50
Iskra (Montenegro)
4.00
Mladost DG is 0.22 goals worse than Arsenal Tivat in terms of goals conceded per game (1.50 vs 1.28).

ā±ļø Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

šŸŽ² 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

šŸ”€ 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

šŸ„… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

āš–ļø 7. Handicap

ā±ļø 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Mladost DGMladost DG

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D20W02L10W20W11D01L02L00D01LA·MLA18/05H·IBA24/05A·DEČ04/08A·BOK10/08H·JED17/08A·MOR24/08H·BUD31/08A·PET13/09H·JEZ17/09A·SUT21/09← Second LeagueFirst League →
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.670.530.710.290.620.75
vs Stronger (1)0.001.000.001.00--
vs Similar (18)0.670.391.000.000.400.70
vs Weaker (11)0.730.730.400.601.000.83
Clean sheet %63% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Arsenal Tivat) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Arsenal TivatArsenal Tivat

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D30W10W20W00D00D21W00D20W11DA·LOV30/05H·LOV04/06H·JED04/08A·MOR10/08H·BUD18/08A·PET24/08H·JEZ30/08A·SUT13/09H·BOK17/09H·DEČ21/09
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.530.430.690.500.360.36
vs Stronger (6)0.000.670.001.000.000.33
vs Similar (22)0.590.410.670.420.500.40
vs Weaker (2)1.500.003.000.000.000.00
Clean sheet %67% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Mladost DG) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

šŸ„… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Mladost DG over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mladost DG over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mladost DG over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal Tivat over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal Tivat over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal Tivat over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ā±ļø 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Mladost DGMladost DG

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-312L20W21W12L32W01L30W02L01L12LA·MLA18/05H·IBA24/05A·DEČ04/08A·BOK10/08H·JED17/08A·MOR24/08H·BUD31/08A·PET13/09H·JEZ17/09A·SUT21/09← Second LeagueFirst League →
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.000.671.070.430.940.88
vs Stronger (1)3.000.003.000.00--
vs Similar (18)1.060.721.120.381.001.00
vs Weaker (11)0.730.640.600.600.830.67
Clean sheet %57% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Arsenal Tivat) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Arsenal TivatArsenal Tivat

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D10W10W02L10W00D01L02L01L00DA·LOV30/05H·LOV04/06H·JED04/08A·MOR10/08H·BUD18/08A·PET24/08H·JEZ30/08A·SUT13/09H·BOK17/09H·DEČ21/09
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.400.800.620.500.141.14
vs Stronger (6)0.501.831.001.000.002.67
vs Similar (22)0.360.590.500.420.200.80
vs Weaker (2)0.500.001.000.000.000.00
Clean sheet %50% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Mladost DG) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

šŸ„… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Mladost DG over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mladost DG over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mladost DG over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal Tivat over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal Tivat over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal Tivat over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

šŸ”„ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.576.2%-------āœ“ Hit
Under 3.571.5%-------āœ“ Hit

šŸ’° 14. Squad value

šŸ’° Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SUT (23)
€5m
MOR (23)
€4m
PET (18)
€4m
DEČ (19)
€4m
BP (21)
€3m
MD (23)
€3m
BOK (18)
€2m
AT (14)
€1m
JEZ (17)
€1m
JED (17)
€1m
GRB (2)
€0m
Mladost DG's squad is €1m more valuable than Arsenal Tivat's (€3m vs €1m).

āš”ļø Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SUT (9)
€2m
DEČ (8)
€1m
PET (5)
€1m
BP (6)
€1m
MOR (8)
€1m
MD (8)
€1m
AT (5)
€1m
BOK (6)
€1m
JEZ (8)
€0m
JED (5)
€0m
GRB (1)
€0m
Mladost DG and Arsenal Tivat have a similar attack value (both €1m).

šŸ§  Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PET (5)
€1m
BP (5)
€1m
MOR (4)
€1m
SUT (5)
€1m
DEČ (3)
€1m
MD (5)
€1m
BOK (4)
€0m
AT (4)
€0m
JEZ (2)
€0m
JED (2)
€0m
GRB (0)
€0m
Mladost DG and Arsenal Tivat have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

šŸ›”ļø Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MOR (11)
€2m
SUT (9)
€2m
DEČ (8)
€2m
BP (10)
€2m
PET (8)
€2m
MD (10)
€1m
JED (10)
€1m
BOK (8)
€1m
JEZ (7)
€1m
AT (5)
€0m
GRB (1)
€0m
Mladost DG and Arsenal Tivat have a similar defence value (both €1m).

šŸ¤ 15. Games History

H2H record

4 previous meetings
2
MD wins
0
Draws
2
AT wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Mladost DG vs Arsenal Tivat · H/A from MD
DateH/AGameScore
18/05/24AArsenal Tivat Vs MD3-1
17/03/24HMD Vs Arsenal Tivat1-2
26/11/23AArsenal Tivat Vs MD0-2
16/09/23HMD Vs Arsenal Tivat2-1

Mladost DGMladost DG

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
21/09/25ASutjeska Vs MD3-1
17/09/25HMD Vs Jezero0-1
13/09/25APetrovac Vs MD4-0
31/08/25HMD Vs Buducnost Podgorica3-1
24/08/25AMornar Vs MD2-1
17/08/25HMD Vs Jedinstvo5-2
10/08/25ABokelj Vs MD2-2
04/08/25ADečić Vs MD3-2
24/05/25HMD Vs Ibar4-0
18/05/25AMladost LjeŔkopolje Vs MD2-1

Arsenal TivatArsenal Tivat

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
21/09/25HAT Vs Dečić1-1
17/09/25HAT Vs Bokelj2-1
13/09/25ASutjeska Vs AT2-0
30/08/25HAT Vs Jezero2-2
24/08/25APetrovac Vs AT0-0
18/08/25HAT Vs Buducnost Podgorica1-0
10/08/25AMornar Vs AT2-2
04/08/25HAT Vs Jedinstvo2-0
04/06/25HAT Vs Lovćen4-0
30/05/25ALovćen Vs AT0-0

šŸ“Š 16. Overall Statistics

Mladost DG
Mladost DG
Montenegro: First League
Recent: 3 Wins / 1 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWLLL1.76
HomeDWWWL2.12
AwayLDLLL1.42
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %52%62%42%
AVG goals2.742.423.04
Over 1.5 %76%67%85%
Over 2.5 %50%42%58%
Over 3.5 %30%25%35%
Scored1.561.671.46
Conceded1.180.751.58
BTTS46%38%54%
Clean Sheet42%54%31%
Corners---
Cards---
Arsenal Tivat
Arsenal Tivat
Montenegro: First League
Recent: 4 Wins / 5 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDDLWD1.26
HomeWWDWD1.54
AwayLDDDL0.96
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %30%38%21%
AVG goals2.342.272.42
Over 1.5 %70%69%71%
Over 2.5 %42%38%46%
Over 3.5 %28%23%33%
Scored1.041.230.83
Conceded1.301.041.58
BTTS46%50%42%
Clean Sheet32%35%29%
Corners---
Cards---

šŸ† 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ā‚¬mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1SutjeskaSutjeska3672
61%
2.0
6136+25
2.7
72%
47%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.71.0
-
2MornarMornar3669
56%
1.9
5129+22
2.2
69%
50%
14%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1121.40.8
-
3PetrovacPetrovac3651
36%
1.4
4436+8
2.2
67%
36%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1121.21.0
-
4DečićDečić3651
39%
1.4
4345-2
2.4
64%
47%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1121.21.2
-
5Buducnost PodgoricaBuducnost Podgorica3648
36%
1.3
3635+1
2.0
61%
25%
11%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1121.01.0
-
6JezeroJezero3847
32%
1.2
4649-3
2.5
79%
47%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.21.3
-
7Mladost DGMladost DG3646
39%
1.3
4954-5
2.9
64%
61%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.41.5
-
8Arsenal TivatArsenal Tivat3646
33%
1.3
3646-10
2.3
64%
39%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1001.01.3
-
9BokeljBokelj3840
24%
1.1
4048-8
2.3
68%
39%
16%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.11.3
-
10JedinstvoJedinstvo3635
25%
1.0
3049-19
2.2
58%
36%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0010.81.4
-
11GrbaljGrbalj21
0%
0.5
02-2
1.0
50%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.01.0
-
12Iskra (Montenegro)Iskra (Montenegro)20
0%
0.0
18-7
4.5
100%
100%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.54.0
-
Montenegro: First League 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Montenegro: First League stats & trends →

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