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Mladost DG vs Arsenal Tivat Result & Analysis

Date: 04/04/2026
Time: 18:30
Final 1-2
Mladost DG
Mladost DG
Vs
58%
23%
18%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Arsenal Tivat
Arsenal Tivat
Montenegro: First League
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Mladost DG win✗ Miss
58.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
23.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Arsenal Tivat win✓ Hit
18.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Mladost DGMladost DG

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-423L00D43W00D10W03L14L13L31W01LH·SUT30/11A·ARS06/12A·DEČ10/12A·BOK21/02H·JED25/02A·MOR01/03H·BUD07/03A·PET11/03H·JEZ15/03A·SUT21/03
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.471.602.071.360.941.81
vs Stronger (3)1.671.672.002.501.000.00
vs Similar (25)1.441.562.091.090.931.93
vs Weaker (2)1.502.002.002.001.002.00
Clean sheet %30% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Arsenal Tivat) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Arsenal TivatArsenal Tivat

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-424L00D00D21W10W01L12L14L10W01LA·DEČ30/11H·MLA06/12H·JED10/12A·MOR21/02H·BUD25/02A·PET01/03H·JEZ07/03A·SUT11/03H·BOK15/03H·DEČ21/03
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.931.271.120.620.712.00
vs Stronger (6)0.831.670.670.001.003.33
vs Similar (22)0.861.271.000.830.701.80
vs Weaker (2)2.000.004.000.000.000.00
Clean sheet %40% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Mladost DG) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%17%23%6%012%123%222%317%410%59%6+
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
81.8%
Under 1.5
18.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
58.8%
Under 2.5
41.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
36.4%
Under 3.5
63.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
57.1%
No
42.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.9%
2-1
9.9%
2-0
9.5%
1-0
8.5%
3-1
6.6%
3-0
6.3%
0-0
5.7%
2-2
5.2%
Mladost DG goals ↓
Arsenal Tivat goals →
01234
05.7%4.0%2.6%0.9%0.2%
18.5%11%5.2%1.8%0.5%
29.5%9.9%5.2%1.8%0.5%
36.3%6.6%3.5%1.2%0.3%
43.2%3.3%1.7%0.6%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Mladost DG goals (down), columns = Arsenal Tivat goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Sutjeska
2.00
Mornar
1.92
Petrovac
1.42
Dečić
1.42
Buducnost Podgorica
1.33
Arsenal Tivat
1.28
Mladost DG
1.28
Jezero
1.24
Bokelj
1.05
Jedinstvo
0.97
Grbalj
0.50
Iskra (Montenegro)
0.00
Mladost DG and Arsenal Tivat are level in average points per game (both 1.28).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Sutjeska
1.69
Mornar
1.42
Mladost DG
1.36
Petrovac
1.22
Jezero
1.21
Dečić
1.19
Bokelj
1.05
Buducnost Podgorica
1.00
Arsenal Tivat
1.00
Jedinstvo
0.83
Iskra (Montenegro)
0.50
Grbalj
0.00
Mladost DG is 0.36 goals better than Arsenal Tivat in terms of goals scored per game (1.36 vs 1.00).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Mornar
0.81
Buducnost Podgorica
0.97
Grbalj
1.00
Petrovac
1.00
Sutjeska
1.00
Dečić
1.25
Bokelj
1.26
Arsenal Tivat
1.28
Jezero
1.29
Jedinstvo
1.36
Mladost DG
1.50
Iskra (Montenegro)
4.00
Mladost DG is 0.22 goals worse than Arsenal Tivat in terms of goals conceded per game (1.50 vs 1.28).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Mladost DGMladost DG

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L00D20W00D00D00D11D11D01L00DH·SUT30/11A·ARS06/12A·DEČ10/12A·BOK21/02H·JED25/02A·MOR01/03H·BUD07/03A·PET11/03H·JEZ15/03A·SUT21/03
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.470.470.570.500.380.44
vs Stronger (3)0.330.670.501.000.000.00
vs Similar (25)0.480.480.640.450.360.50
vs Weaker (2)0.500.000.000.001.000.00
Clean sheet %63% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Arsenal Tivat) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Arsenal TivatArsenal Tivat

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-212L00D00D11D00D00D01L01L10W01LA·DEČ30/11H·MLA06/12H·JED10/12A·MOR21/02H·BUD25/02A·PET01/03H·JEZ07/03A·SUT11/03H·BOK15/03H·DEČ21/03
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.570.530.750.310.360.79
vs Stronger (6)0.170.330.000.000.330.67
vs Similar (22)0.590.640.750.420.400.90
vs Weaker (2)1.500.003.000.000.000.00
Clean sheet %60% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Mladost DG) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Mladost DG over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mladost DG over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mladost DG over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal Tivat over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal Tivat over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal Tivat over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Mladost DGMladost DG

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-322D00D23L00D10W03L03L02L30W01LH·SUT30/11A·ARS06/12A·DEČ10/12A·BOK21/02H·JED25/02A·MOR01/03H·BUD07/03A·PET11/03H·JEZ15/03A·SUT21/03
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.001.131.500.860.561.38
vs Stronger (3)1.331.001.501.501.000.00
vs Similar (25)0.961.081.450.640.571.43
vs Weaker (2)1.002.002.002.000.002.00
Clean sheet %37% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Arsenal Tivat) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Arsenal TivatArsenal Tivat

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-312L00D00D10W10W01L11D13L00D00DA·DEČ30/11H·MLA06/12H·JED10/12A·MOR21/02H·BUD25/02A·PET01/03H·JEZ07/03A·SUT11/03H·BOK15/03H·DEČ21/03
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.370.730.380.310.361.21
vs Stronger (6)0.671.330.670.000.672.67
vs Similar (22)0.270.640.250.420.300.90
vs Weaker (2)0.500.001.000.000.000.00
Clean sheet %53% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Mladost DG) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Mladost DG over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mladost DG over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mladost DG over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal Tivat over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal Tivat over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal Tivat over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.581.8%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SUT (23)
€5m
MOR (23)
€4m
PET (18)
€4m
DEČ (19)
€4m
BP (21)
€3m
MD (23)
€3m
BOK (18)
€2m
AT (14)
€1m
JEZ (17)
€1m
JED (17)
€1m
GRB (2)
€0m
Mladost DG's squad is €1m more valuable than Arsenal Tivat's (€3m vs €1m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SUT (9)
€2m
DEČ (8)
€1m
PET (5)
€1m
BP (6)
€1m
MOR (8)
€1m
MD (8)
€1m
AT (5)
€1m
BOK (6)
€1m
JEZ (8)
€0m
JED (5)
€0m
GRB (1)
€0m
Mladost DG and Arsenal Tivat have a similar attack value (both €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PET (5)
€1m
BP (5)
€1m
MOR (4)
€1m
SUT (5)
€1m
DEČ (3)
€1m
MD (5)
€1m
BOK (4)
€0m
AT (4)
€0m
JEZ (2)
€0m
JED (2)
€0m
GRB (0)
€0m
Mladost DG and Arsenal Tivat have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MOR (11)
€2m
SUT (9)
€2m
DEČ (8)
€2m
BP (10)
€2m
PET (8)
€2m
MD (10)
€1m
JED (10)
€1m
BOK (8)
€1m
JEZ (7)
€1m
AT (5)
€0m
GRB (1)
€0m
Mladost DG and Arsenal Tivat have a similar defence value (both €1m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

6 previous meetings
3
MD wins
1
Draws
2
AT wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Mladost DG vs Arsenal Tivat · H/A from MD
DateH/AGameScore
06/12/25AArsenal Tivat Vs MD0-0
27/09/25HMD Vs Arsenal Tivat2-0
18/05/24AArsenal Tivat Vs MD3-1
17/03/24HMD Vs Arsenal Tivat1-2
26/11/23AArsenal Tivat Vs MD0-2
16/09/23HMD Vs Arsenal Tivat2-1

Mladost DGMladost DG

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
21/03/26ASutjeska Vs MD1-0
15/03/26HMD Vs Jezero3-1
11/03/26APetrovac Vs MD3-1
07/03/26HMD Vs Buducnost Podgorica1-4
01/03/26AMornar Vs MD3-0
25/02/26HMD Vs Jedinstvo1-0
21/02/26ABokelj Vs MD0-0
10/12/25ADečić Vs MD3-4
06/12/25AArsenal Tivat Vs MD0-0
30/11/25HMD Vs Sutjeska2-3

Arsenal TivatArsenal Tivat

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
21/03/26HAT Vs Dečić0-1
15/03/26HAT Vs Bokelj1-0
11/03/26ASutjeska Vs AT4-1
07/03/26HAT Vs Jezero1-2
01/03/26APetrovac Vs AT1-0
25/02/26HAT Vs Buducnost Podgorica1-0
21/02/26AMornar Vs AT1-2
10/12/25HAT Vs Jedinstvo0-0
06/12/25HAT Vs Mladost DG0-0
30/11/25ADečić Vs AT4-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Mladost DG
Mladost DG
Montenegro: First League
Recent: 3 Wins / 2 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLLWL1.74
HomeWLWLW2.08
AwayWDLLL1.42
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %54%67%42%
AVG goals2.722.672.77
Over 1.5 %70%67%73%
Over 2.5 %54%50%58%
Over 3.5 %32%33%31%
Scored1.521.711.35
Conceded1.200.961.42
BTTS40%38%42%
Clean Sheet46%54%38%
Corners---
Cards---
Arsenal Tivat
Arsenal Tivat
Montenegro: First League
Recent: 3 Wins / 2 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLLWL1.20
HomeDWLWL1.62
AwayLLWLL0.75
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %30%42%17%
AVG goals2.222.042.42
Over 1.5 %62%54%71%
Over 2.5 %34%35%33%
Over 3.5 %22%19%25%
Scored0.941.190.67
Conceded1.280.851.75
BTTS38%42%33%
Clean Sheet36%46%25%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1SutjeskaSutjeska3672
61%
2.0
6136+25
2.7
72%
47%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.71.0
-
2MornarMornar3669
56%
1.9
5129+22
2.2
69%
50%
14%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1121.40.8
-
3PetrovacPetrovac3651
36%
1.4
4436+8
2.2
67%
36%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1121.21.0
-
4DečićDečić3651
39%
1.4
4345-2
2.4
64%
47%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1121.21.2
-
5Buducnost PodgoricaBuducnost Podgorica3648
36%
1.3
3635+1
2.0
61%
25%
11%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1121.01.0
-
6JezeroJezero3847
32%
1.2
4649-3
2.5
79%
47%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.21.3
-
7Mladost DGMladost DG3646
39%
1.3
4954-5
2.9
64%
61%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.41.5
-
8Arsenal TivatArsenal Tivat3646
33%
1.3
3646-10
2.3
64%
39%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1001.01.3
-
9BokeljBokelj3840
24%
1.1
4048-8
2.3
68%
39%
16%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.11.3
-
10JedinstvoJedinstvo3635
25%
1.0
3049-19
2.2
58%
36%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0010.81.4
-
11GrbaljGrbalj21
0%
0.5
02-2
1.0
50%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.01.0
-
12Iskra (Montenegro)Iskra (Montenegro)20
0%
0.0
18-7
4.5
100%
100%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.54.0
-
Montenegro: First League 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Montenegro: First League stats & trends →

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