Mladost Lješko Polje is the clear favourite to win this match, with a 70% chance of securing a home win. The model's high prediction is largely due to Kom's recent struggles, having lost their last five matches, and their away form against stronger opponents, conceding an average of 1.78 goals per game. Meanwhile, Mladost Lješko Polje has shown strength at home, scoring an average of 2 goals and conceding just 1.
The model predicts a 3.5 total goals and the most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a probability of 9.4%. The home side is expected to score and concede goals at a rate of 2 and 1, respectively, while Kom's away form suggests they will score 1.44 goals and concede 1.78.
The model's selection is the home win, with a 70% chance of occurrence. The draw percentage is 18%, and the away win percentage is 12%. In addition to the home win, the model suggests selecting Over 1.5 with a 87.5% probability.
Results analysis
The win extends Mladost Lješkopolje’s three-game winning run, as they edged Kom 2-1 to secure the home win the model predicted. The pre-match favourite was Home win with a 70 % probability, and the model’s call was correct. The model’s selections performed strongly: Away under 2.5 HT goals hit at 98.2 %, Away under 3.5 goals hit at 98.1 %, Under 7.5 hit at 97.2 %, Away under 2.5 2H goals hit at 96.5 %, Home +2 handicap hit at 95.7 %, Home under 2.5 HT goals hit at 95.6 %, Under 6.5 hit at 93.2 %, and Home under 2.5 2H goals hit at 92.4 %. All probabilities are expressed as percentages.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Mladost Lješkopolje win✓ Hit
69.7%
Avg Implied 39.2% · @ 2.29
Edge
+30.4%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
2.50
William Hil
2.40
Dafabet
2.33
Superbet
2.32
Pinnacle
2.32
Draw✗ Miss
18.1%
Avg Implied 28.5% · @ 3.16
Edge
-10.4%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
3.30
Betano
3.25
Dafabet
3.20
Bet365
3.20
Betfair
3.20
Kom win✗ Miss
12.2%
Avg Implied 32.3% · @ 2.79
Edge
-20.0%
Best 5 market prices
BetVictor
3.00
Bet365
3.00
Betfair
2.88
10Bet
2.85
Dafabet
2.80
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Mladost Lješkopolje
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
1.17
1.64
1.00
1.06
1.31
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
0.78
1.33
0.75
1.00
0.80
1.60
vs Weaker (21)
1.57
1.10
2.00
1.00
1.18
1.18
Clean sheet %
43% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Kom) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kom
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.47
1.23
1.25
0.94
1.71
1.57
vs Stronger (20)
1.30
1.30
1.17
1.17
1.50
1.50
vs Similar (10)
1.80
1.10
1.50
0.25
2.00
1.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Mladost Lješkopolje) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
87.5%
@ 1.32+18.4%
Under 1.5
12.5%
@ 2.96-18.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.33
Pinnacle
1.32
Under
1xBet
3.00
Pinnacle
2.93
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
68.5%
@ 2.03+23.1%
Under 2.5
31.5%
@ 1.69-23.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
2.05
1xBet
2.05
Bet365
2.05
Pinnacle
2.05
Superbet
2.02
Under
Bet365
1.75
Superbet
1.71
BetVictor
1.70
1xBet
1.69
Pinnacle
1.67
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
47.1%
@ 3.60+21.6%
Under 3.5
52.9%
@ 1.23-21.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
3.60
Under
1xBet
1.23
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
59.1%
@ 1.86+9.0%
No
40.9%
@ 1.86-9.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Betfair
1.95
1xBet
1.88
Superbet
1.82
BetVictor
1.78
No
1xBet
1.92
BetVictor
1.91
Superbet
1.88
Betfair
1.75
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-1 ✓
9.4%@ 8.70+5.0%
2-0
9.3%@ 9.70+5.4%
1-1
8.2%@ 5.90+1.7%
3-1
7.9%@ 16.40+5.6%
3-0
7.9%@ 20.00+6.0%
1-0
6.6%@ 6.85+1.1%
4-1
5.0%@ 45.80+4.2%
4-0
5.0%@ 50.40+4.2%
Mladost Lješkopolje goals ↓
Kom goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.7%
2.2%
1.5%
0.5%
0.1%
1
6.6%
8.2%
3.7%
1.2%
0.3%
2
9.3%
9.4%
4.7%
1.6%
0.4%
3
7.9%
7.9%
4.0%
1.3%
0.3%
4
5.0%
5.0%
2.5%
0.8%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Mladost Lješkopolje goals (down), columns = Kom goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Jedinstvo
2.36
Grbalj
1.86
Iskra (Montenegro)
1.78
Kom
1.39
Berane
1.39
Rudar (Montenegro)
1.34
Lovćen
1.33
Mladost Lješkopolje
1.31
Mogren
1.25
Zeta
1.00
Mladost Lješkopolje is 0.08 points worse than Kom in terms of average points per game (1.31 vs 1.39).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Jedinstvo
2.18
Grbalj
1.75
Rudar (Montenegro)
1.42
Iskra (Montenegro)
1.42
Kom
1.31
Berane
1.25
Mogren
1.16
Mladost Lješkopolje
1.08
Lovćen
0.94
Zeta
0.50
Mladost Lješkopolje is 0.22 goals worse than Kom in terms of goals scored per game (1.08 vs 1.31).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Zeta
0.50
Jedinstvo
0.73
Iskra (Montenegro)
0.94
Berane
1.00
Grbalj
1.17
Kom
1.19
Lovćen
1.25
Mladost Lješkopolje
1.28
Rudar (Montenegro)
1.29
Mogren
1.39
Mladost Lješkopolje is 0.08 goals worse than Kom in terms of goals conceded per game (1.28 vs 1.19).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Mladost Lješkopolje or Draw✓ Hit
87.8%
Avg Implied 68.3% · @ 1.35
Edge
+19.5%
70%
18%
12%
covers Mladost Lješkopolje + Draw
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.45
Betano
1.36
Betfair
1.36
Superbet
1.33
BetVictor
1.33
Mladost Lješkopolje or Kom✓ Hit
81.9%
Avg Implied 71.8% · @ 1.28
Edge
+10.1%
70%
18%
12%
covers Mladost Lješkopolje + Kom
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
1.30
BetVictor
1.30
1xBet
1.29
Betano
1.28
Bet365
1.28
Draw or Kom✗ Miss
30.3%
Avg Implied 60.0% · @ 1.53
Edge
-29.7%
70%
18%
12%
covers Draw + Kom
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
1.60
10Bet
1.57
Betfair
1.57
BetVictor
1.55
Betano
1.50
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Mladost Lješkopolje over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
92.0%
@ 1.30+22.3%
Under
8.0%
@ 3.00-22.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.30
Under
1xBet
3.00
Mladost Lješkopolje over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
71.9%
@ 2.42+34.1%
Under
28.1%
@ 1.47-34.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.47
1xBet
2.38
Under
Pinnacle
1.47
1xBet
1.47
Mladost Lješkopolje over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
46.4%
@ 5.25+28.9%
Under
53.6%
@ 1.11-28.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
5.25
Under
1xBet
1.11
Mladost Lješkopolje over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
24.9%
Under
75.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kom over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
63.4%
@ 1.37-3.2%
Under
36.6%
@ 2.73+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.41
1xBet
1.33
Under
1xBet
2.87
Pinnacle
2.60
Kom over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
26.6%
@ 2.58-8.8%
Under
73.4%
@ 1.42+8.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.62
1xBet
2.55
Under
Pinnacle
1.42
1xBet
1.41
Kom over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
8.1%
@ 5.85-7.7%
Under
91.9%
@ 1.10+7.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
5.85
Under
1xBet
1.10
Kom over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
1.9%
Under
98.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Mladost Lješkopolje, so a minus line means Mladost Lješkopolje give that many goals of a start and Kom receive them. At -1, Mladost Lješkopolje must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Mladost Lješkopolje win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
This opponent (Kom) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kom
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.63
0.44
0.56
0.64
0.71
vs Stronger (20)
0.50
0.75
0.50
0.75
0.50
0.75
vs Similar (10)
0.60
0.40
0.25
0.00
0.83
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Mladost Lješkopolje) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
71.9%
@ 1.39+6.4%
Under 0.5
28.1%
@ 2.65-6.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.41
BetVictor
1.40
Pinnacle
1.40
Betano
1.40
10Bet
1.38
Under
Betfair
2.88
BetVictor
2.75
1xBet
2.70
Pinnacle
2.60
10Bet
2.55
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
34.6%
@ 2.88+2.9%
Under 1.5
65.4%
@ 1.33-2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
3.00
Betfair
3.00
Pinnacle
2.88
10Bet
2.62
Under
10Bet
1.35
Betfair
1.33
1xBet
1.33
Pinnacle
1.33
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
13.0%
@ 7.75+1.0%
Under 2.5
87.0%
@ 1.05-1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
8.00
1xBet
7.50
Under
1xBet
1.06
Betfair
1.05
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Mladost Lješkopolje over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
55.6%
Under
44.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mladost Lješkopolje over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
18.8%
Under
81.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mladost Lješkopolje over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
4.4%
Under
95.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kom over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
39.6%
Under
60.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kom over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
8.9%
Under
91.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kom over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.8%
Under
98.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Mladost Lješkopolje
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.70
0.79
0.71
0.69
0.69
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
0.44
0.67
0.25
0.75
0.60
0.60
vs Weaker (21)
0.86
0.71
1.00
0.70
0.73
0.73
Clean sheet %
57% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Kom) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kom
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.60
0.81
0.38
1.07
0.86
vs Stronger (20)
0.80
0.55
0.67
0.42
1.00
0.75
vs Similar (10)
1.20
0.70
1.25
0.25
1.17
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Mladost Lješkopolje) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
80.0%
@ 1.25+5.7%
Under 0.5
20.0%
@ 3.60-5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.25
Under
1xBet
3.60
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
46.9%
Under 1.5
53.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
21.3%
Under 2.5
78.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Mladost Lješkopolje over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
59.9%
Under
40.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mladost Lješkopolje over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
24.9%
Under
75.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mladost Lješkopolje over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
7.6%
Under
92.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kom over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
48.5%
Under
51.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kom over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
14.9%
Under
85.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kom over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
3.5%
Under
96.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
98.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 7.5
97.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
96.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
95.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
95.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
93.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
92.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
91.9%
1.10
1xBet
1.10
-
-
-
-
+7.7%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
91.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
87.8%
1.35
1xBet
1.45
Betano
1.36
Betfair
1.36
Superbet
1.33
BetVictor
1.33
+19.5%
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
87.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
87.5%
1.32
1xBet
1.33
Pinnacle
1.32
-
-
-
+18.4%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
87.0%
1.05
1xBet
1.06
Betfair
1.05
-
-
-
-1.0%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
85.3%
1.02
1xBet
1.02
-
-
-
-
-9.0%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
85.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Away
81.9%
1.28
Betfair
1.30
BetVictor
1.30
1xBet
1.29
Betano
1.28
Bet365
1.28
+10.1%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
81.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
80.0%
1.25
1xBet
1.25
-
-
-
-
+5.7%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
78.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
75.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
75.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 goals
73.4%
1.42
Pinnacle
1.42
1xBet
1.41
-
-
-
+8.8%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 HT goals
71.9%
1.39
1xBet
1.41
BetVictor
1.40
Pinnacle
1.40
Betano
1.40
10Bet
1.38
+6.4%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
71.9%
1.07
1xBet
1.07
-
-
-
-
-15.6%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Montenegro: Second League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Montenegro: Second League stats & trends →