The favoured result is an away win for FK Partizan, with a 48% chance of success. The overall shape of the match is expected to be a closely contested, low-scoring encounter with 2.6 goals on average. The most likely score is 1-1, occurring 13.2% of the time.
Mladost Lucani have struggled at home, scoring 0.86 goals per game against stronger opponents and conceding 1.29 goals, while FK Partizan have performed well away, scoring 1.62 goals and conceding 1.54 against weaker opponents.
The model's selection is an away win, with a 48% chance of success. The model also suggests over 21.5 fouls (82.9%), over 1.5 goals (74.9%), under 3.5 goals (73.2%), and over 3.5 cards (70.7%) as its selections.
The home side, Mladost Lucani, has a 24% chance of winning, a 28% chance of drawing, and a 48% chance of losing. The suggested picks have the following probabilities: Over 21.5 fouls (82.9%), Over 1.5 goals (74.9%), Under 3.5 goals (73.2%), and Over 3.5 cards (70.7%).
Results analysis
The upset came early as Mladost Lucani overturned the pre-match favourite, FK Partizan, to win 3-1, extending their two-game winning run. The model had picked an away win with a 48 % probability, but that call was wrong. The final score of 3-1 confirmed a home win, contrary to the model’s expectation. Every suggested pick was a hit: Under 7.5 goals at 99.4 %, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 98.6 %, Under 6.5 at 98.2 %, Home under 3.5 goals at 97.8 %, Home under 2.5 2H goals at 97.6 %, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 96.5 %, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 95.1 %, and Under 5.5 at 94.9 %. All probabilities were expressed as percentages and each pick was reported once.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Mladost Lucani win✓ Hit
24.2%
Avg Implied 22.7% · @ 3.98
Edge
+1.5%
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
4.30
888Sport
4.20
Bet365
4.20
Betfair
4.10
Pinnacle
4.09
Draw✗ Miss
27.6%
Avg Implied 25.8% · @ 3.50
Edge
+1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
3.80
Bet365
3.70
Marathonbet
3.64
1xBet
3.64
Dafabet
3.60
FK Partizan win✗ Miss
48.2%
Avg Implied 51.4% · @ 1.76
Edge
-3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Superbet
1.82
Dafabet
1.82
SBO
1.81
William Hil
1.80
Betano
1.80
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Mladost Lucani
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
1.33
0.85
0.92
0.88
1.65
vs Stronger (13)
0.85
2.23
1.00
1.50
0.78
2.56
vs Similar (17)
0.88
0.65
0.78
0.67
1.00
0.62
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Partizan) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FK Partizan
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.57
1.30
1.80
1.00
1.33
1.60
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
3.00
-
-
0.00
3.00
vs Similar (3)
0.33
2.00
-
-
0.33
2.00
vs Weaker (25)
1.84
1.08
1.80
1.00
1.90
1.20
Clean sheet %
27% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Mladost Lucani) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
74.9%
@ 1.22-0.1%
Under 1.5
25.1%
@ 3.65+0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.28
Betano
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Unibet
1.23
Superbet
1.22
Under
Betfair
4.10
Marathonbet
3.84
1xBet
3.84
Superbet
3.80
888Sport
3.75
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
48.7%
@ 1.74-4.2%
Under 2.5
51.3%
@ 1.97+4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.83
Betfair
1.80
SBO
1.77
Unibet
1.76
888Sport
1.75
Under
Pinnacle
2.05
Bet365
2.05
SBO
2.01
Betfair
2.00
Superbet
2.00
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
26.9%
@ 2.80-5.8%
Under 3.5
73.1%
@ 1.36+5.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
3.10
888Sport
2.90
Unibet
2.88
Betfair
2.88
Pinnacle
2.84
Under
Bet365
1.40
Betfair
1.40
Superbet
1.39
Betano
1.39
Pinnacle
1.38
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
52.8%
@ 1.68-1.7%
No
47.2%
@ 2.01+1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.80
10Bet
1.73
Unibet
1.73
Betfair
1.73
888Sport
1.70
No
Betfair
2.10
William Hil
2.10
Betano
2.07
Superbet
2.07
1xBet
2.07
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.2%@ 6.68+6.5%
0-1
10.2%@ 7.34+4.1%
1-2
9.4%@ 7.57+3.5%
0-2
9.0%@ 8.55+3.7%
0-0
8.5%@ 10.35+4.1%
1-0
6.4%@ 12.03+2.7%
2-1
6.3%@ 12.43+2.7%
2-2
5.0%@ 13.05+1.5%
Mladost Lucani goals ↓
FK Partizan goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.5%
10%
9.0%
4.7%
1.8%
1
6.4%
13%
9.4%
4.9%
1.9%
2
4.0%
6.3%
5.0%
2.6%
1.0%
3
1.4%
2.2%
1.7%
0.9%
0.4%
4
0.4%
0.6%
0.5%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Mladost Lucani goals (down), columns = FK Partizan goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FK Crvena Zvezda
3.00
Vojvodina
2.14
IMT Novi Beograd
1.86
Radnicki 1923
1.67
Železničar Pančevo
1.60
Cukaricki
1.43
Mladost Lucani
1.43
Radnik Surdulica
1.33
FK Partizan
1.17
OFK Beograd
1.14
Novi Pazar
1.14
Macva
1.00
Radnicki NIS
0.83
Zemun
0.14
Mladost Lucani is 0.26 points better than FK Partizan in terms of average points per game (1.43 vs 1.17).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FK Crvena Zvezda
3.20
Vojvodina
2.14
Železničar Pančevo
1.80
FK Partizan
1.67
IMT Novi Beograd
1.43
Cukaricki
1.29
Radnicki 1923
1.17
OFK Beograd
1.14
Radnik Surdulica
1.00
Mladost Lucani
1.00
Macva
0.71
Novi Pazar
0.71
Radnicki NIS
0.50
Zemun
0.29
Mladost Lucani is 0.67 goals worse than FK Partizan in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 1.67).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FK Crvena Zvezda
0.20
IMT Novi Beograd
0.57
Vojvodina
0.86
Mladost Lucani
0.86
Radnicki 1923
1.00
Železničar Pančevo
1.00
Radnicki NIS
1.00
Novi Pazar
1.14
Radnik Surdulica
1.50
FK Partizan
1.67
OFK Beograd
1.71
Cukaricki
1.71
Macva
1.86
Zemun
2.00
Mladost Lucani is 0.81 goals better than FK Partizan in terms of goals conceded per game (0.86 vs 1.67).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
FK Partizan
63%
FK Crvena Zvezda
61%
Železničar Pančevo
61%
Radnicki 1923
58%
Radnicki NIS
55%
OFK Beograd
54%
IMT Novi Beograd
53%
Vojvodina
52%
Novi Pazar
49%
Radnik Surdulica
48%
Cukaricki
41%
Mladost Lucani
38%
Macva
38%
Zemun
37%
Mladost Lucani is 24.4 percentage points worse than FK Partizan in terms of average possession (38% vs 63%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Mladost Lucani
For 3.2 · Against 6.4 · Total 9.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.1 · Against 2.5 · Total 4.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.7 · Against 13.5 · Total 25.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
FK Partizan
For 5.9 · Against 3.5 · Total 9.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.6 · Against 3.3 · Total 5.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.8 · Against 15.3 · Total 26.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Mladost Lucani
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.6
9.8
9.4
3.9
3.6
4.2
25.6
26.6
24.7
vs Stronger (26)
10.3
11.5
9.4
3.6
3.4
3.7
25.0
26.4
23.9
vs Similar (24)
8.8
8.2
9.4
4.3
3.8
4.8
26.2
26.8
25.8
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
45%
48%
42%
60%
54%
65%
76%
74%
77%
% under line
55%
52%
58%
40%
46%
35%
24%
26%
23%
This opponent (FK Partizan) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FK Partizan
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.4
9.1
9.6
4.2
4.2
4.3
25.8
25.3
26.3
vs Stronger (3)
9.0
9.0
9.0
3.7
3.0
4.0
28.7
20.0
33.0
vs Similar (4)
7.5
11.0
6.3
6.5
8.0
6.0
28.5
20.0
31.3
vs Weaker (43)
9.6
9.0
10.3
4.1
4.1
4.0
25.3
25.9
24.6
% over line
50%
50%
50%
62%
62%
62%
70%
59%
82%
% under line
50%
50%
50%
38%
38%
38%
30%
41%
18%
This opponent (Mladost Lucani) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
FK Crvena Zvezda
9.9
Mladost Lucani
9.6
FK Partizan
9.1
Radnicki 1923
9.1
Vojvodina
9.1
Novi Pazar
8.9
Radnik Surdulica
8.8
Cukaricki
8.8
OFK Beograd
8.8
IMT Novi Beograd
8.5
Zemun
8.5
Železničar Pančevo
8.5
Radnicki NIS
8.4
Macva
7.8
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Macva
6.2
Zemun
5.8
Radnicki 1923
5.5
Radnik Surdulica
5.3
Radnicki NIS
5.1
Vojvodina
4.9
OFK Beograd
4.9
Cukaricki
4.8
FK Partizan
4.8
Novi Pazar
4.6
IMT Novi Beograd
4.5
Železničar Pančevo
4.4
Mladost Lucani
4.3
FK Crvena Zvezda
3.8
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Radnik Surdulica
30.5
Macva
30.3
Radnicki 1923
30.2
IMT Novi Beograd
29.8
Radnicki NIS
29.3
OFK Beograd
29.1
Cukaricki
29.0
Železničar Pančevo
27.6
Novi Pazar
27.2
Vojvodina
26.9
Zemun
26.5
FK Partizan
26.2
Mladost Lucani
25.8
FK Crvena Zvezda
23.7
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
42.8%
@ 2.33+3.3%
Under 9.5
57.2%
@ 1.52-3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.43
Betano
2.32
Superbet
2.25
Under
Superbet
1.57
Betano
1.53
1xBet
1.47
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
71.2%
Under 3.5
28.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
83.9%
Under 21.5
16.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Mladost Lucani or Draw✓ Hit
51.8%
Avg Implied 47.6% · @ 1.93
Edge
+4.3%
24%
28%
48%
covers Mladost Lucani + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
2.00
Betfair
2.00
888Sport
2.00
10Bet
2.00
Betano
1.98
Mladost Lucani or FK Partizan✓ Hit
72.4%
Avg Implied 75.1% · @ 1.23
Edge
-2.7%
24%
28%
48%
covers Mladost Lucani + FK Partizan
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.29
888Sport
1.29
Bet365
1.28
Betano
1.27
Betfair
1.25
Draw or FK Partizan✗ Miss
75.8%
Avg Implied 77.3% · @ 1.19
Edge
-1.5%
24%
28%
48%
covers Draw + FK Partizan
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.24
William Hil
1.22
BetVictor
1.22
Bet365
1.22
Superbet
1.21
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Mladost Lucani over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
65.1%
@ 1.43+1.2%
Under
34.9%
@ 2.53-1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.50
10Bet
1.48
Pinnacle
1.45
888Sport
1.44
Betano
1.44
Under
Superbet
2.67
Betano
2.65
Marathonbet
2.64
Pinnacle
2.64
1xBet
2.64
Mladost Lucani over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
28.4%
@ 3.03-2.0%
Under
71.6%
@ 1.32+2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.40
10Bet
3.30
888Sport
3.25
Marathonbet
3.04
1xBet
3.04
Under
Pinnacle
1.42
Betano
1.36
Superbet
1.35
1xBet
1.32
Marathonbet
1.32
Mladost Lucani over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
9.0%
@ 7.44-3.3%
Under
91.0%
@ 1.05+3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
9.50
Marathonbet
8.30
1xBet
8.30
Bet365
8.00
Superbet
7.30
Under
Betano
1.08
BetVictor
1.07
Bet365
1.06
Superbet
1.06
888Sport
1.05
Mladost Lucani over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
2.2%
@ 15.58-3.9%
Under
97.8%
@ 1.01+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
20.00
Bet365
15.00
Betano
11.75
Under
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
FK Partizan over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
79.2%
@ 1.15-0.7%
Under
20.8%
@ 4.56+0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.17
10Bet
1.17
Betano
1.17
888Sport
1.15
Superbet
1.15
Under
1xBet
5.10
888Sport
5.00
Superbet
4.75
Betano
4.70
10Bet
4.50
FK Partizan over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
46.6%
@ 1.76-5.5%
Under
53.4%
@ 1.91+5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.80
Betano
1.80
Bet365
1.80
Superbet
1.78
Marathonbet
1.77
Under
Pinnacle
2.00
888Sport
1.95
Betano
1.95
1xBet
1.94
Marathonbet
1.94
FK Partizan over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
20.9%
@ 3.35-6.3%
Under
79.1%
@ 1.25+6.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
3.55
Bet365
3.50
1xBet
3.42
Marathonbet
3.42
Superbet
3.40
Under
Betano
1.29
Bet365
1.28
Superbet
1.27
10Bet
1.25
888Sport
1.25
FK Partizan over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
7.5%
@ 7.14-5.5%
Under
92.5%
@ 1.07+5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
8.00
Superbet
7.20
Bet365
7.00
1xBet
6.80
Betano
6.70
Under
Betano
1.09
Bet365
1.08
1xBet
1.06
888Sport
1.06
Superbet
1.06
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Mladost Lucani, so a minus line means Mladost Lucani give that many goals of a start and FK Partizan receive them. At -1, Mladost Lucani must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Mladost Lucani win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
This opponent (FK Partizan) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FK Partizan
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.53
1.07
0.47
0.60
0.60
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (3)
0.33
0.67
-
-
0.33
0.67
vs Weaker (25)
0.96
0.48
1.07
0.47
0.80
0.50
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Mladost Lucani) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
69.4%
@ 1.32-0.2%
Under 0.5
30.6%
@ 3.02+0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.38
10Bet
1.35
William Hil
1.33
Bet365
1.33
Pinnacle
1.32
Under
Betfair
3.30
Bet365
3.25
William Hil
3.10
Superbet
3.10
Pinnacle
3.09
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
34.1%
@ 2.51-2.3%
Under 1.5
65.9%
@ 1.44+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.62
Betano
2.62
Betfair
2.60
10Bet
2.55
1xBet
2.53
Under
Superbet
1.48
Pinnacle
1.46
10Bet
1.45
Betano
1.45
Betfair
1.44
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
12.4%
@ 5.78-3.4%
Under 2.5
87.6%
@ 1.09+3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
6.50
Marathonbet
6.25
1xBet
6.25
William Hil
6.00
Bet365
6.00
Under
Bet365
1.11
William Hil
1.11
Betano
1.11
Superbet
1.11
Betfair
1.08
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Mladost Lucani over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
39.6%
@ 2.40+1.0%
Under
60.4%
@ 1.51-1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.46
10Bet
2.45
Betano
2.42
Marathonbet
2.38
Superbet
2.37
Under
1xBet
1.54
Superbet
1.52
Pinnacle
1.51
Betano
1.50
Marathonbet
1.49
Mladost Lucani over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
9.7%
@ 8.34-1.4%
Under
90.3%
@ 1.04+1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
9.60
10Bet
8.50
1xBet
8.30
Superbet
8.10
Betano
7.20
Under
Betano
1.06
Superbet
1.05
10Bet
1.04
1xBet
1.03
Marathonbet
1.01
Mladost Lucani over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.4%
@ 32.00-98.6%
Under
98.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
32.00
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Partizan over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
50.0%
@ 1.72-3.8%
Under
50.0%
@ 2.00+3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.75
10Bet
1.73
Pinnacle
1.71
1xBet
1.71
Superbet
1.71
Under
Pinnacle
2.06
Superbet
2.02
1xBet
2.00
10Bet
2.00
Marathonbet
1.98
FK Partizan over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
15.2%
@ 4.54-5.1%
Under
84.8%
@ 1.16+5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.85
1xBet
4.50
10Bet
4.50
Betano
4.45
Superbet
4.40
Under
Superbet
1.17
10Bet
1.17
Betano
1.17
1xBet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.13
FK Partizan over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
3.5%
@ 11.83-4.5%
Under
96.5%
@ 1.02+4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
13.00
Superbet
13.00
Betano
9.50
Under
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.02
Superbet
1.02
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Mladost Lucani
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.87
0.38
0.54
0.59
1.12
vs Stronger (13)
0.54
1.54
0.75
1.25
0.44
1.67
vs Similar (17)
0.47
0.35
0.22
0.22
0.75
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Partizan) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FK Partizan
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.77
0.73
0.53
0.73
1.00
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
2.00
-
-
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (3)
0.00
1.33
-
-
0.00
1.33
vs Weaker (25)
0.88
0.60
0.73
0.53
1.10
0.70
Clean sheet %
47% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Mladost Lucani) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
79.3%
@ 1.19+1.8%
Under 0.5
20.7%
@ 4.08-1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.22
William Hil
1.22
Betano
1.21
Superbet
1.20
1xBet
1.15
Under
Marathonbet
4.20
1xBet
4.20
Superbet
4.10
William Hil
4.00
Betano
4.00
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
45.6%
@ 1.95-1.8%
Under 1.5
54.4%
@ 1.76+1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.00
Superbet
1.95
William Hil
1.95
1xBet
1.94
Marathonbet
1.94
Under
Betano
1.80
1xBet
1.76
Marathonbet
1.76
Superbet
1.76
William Hil
1.75
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
18.4%
@ 3.98-4.8%
Under 2.5
81.6%
@ 1.20+4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
4.33
Marathonbet
4.00
William Hil
4.00
1xBet
4.00
Superbet
3.90
Under
Betano
1.24
Superbet
1.21
William Hil
1.20
Bet365
1.20
1xBet
1.17
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Mladost Lucani over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
44.8%
@ 1.99-1.7%
Under
55.2%
@ 1.73+1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
2.00
Superbet
2.00
Betano
1.98
1xBet
1.97
Under
Betano
1.75
1xBet
1.74
Superbet
1.73
Marathonbet
1.69
Mladost Lucani over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
13.4%
@ 6.05-1.8%
Under
86.6%
@ 1.09+1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
6.70
1xBet
6.10
Superbet
6.00
Betano
5.40
Under
Betano
1.12
Superbet
1.10
1xBet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.06
Mladost Lucani over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.4%
@ 15.25-3.9%
Under
97.6%
@ 1.02+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
20.00
Betano
10.50
Under
Betano
1.02
FK Partizan over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
57.5%
@ 1.49-4.6%
Under
42.5%
@ 2.44+4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.51
1xBet
1.49
Betano
1.47
Under
Betano
2.50
1xBet
2.43
Superbet
2.40
FK Partizan over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
21.7%
@ 3.32-6.0%
Under
78.3%
@ 1.27+6.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
3.42
Superbet
3.40
1xBet
3.30
Betano
3.15
Under
Betano
1.31
Superbet
1.27
1xBet
1.27
Marathonbet
1.25
FK Partizan over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
4.9%
@ 8.33-6.2%
Under
95.1%
@ 1.04+6.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
9.10
Superbet
8.80
Betano
7.10
Under
Betano
1.07
Superbet
1.04
1xBet
1.02
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
98.2%
1.01
Betano
1.02
1xBet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
+5.0%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
97.8%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
+3.9%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
97.6%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
+3.9%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
96.5%
1.02
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.02
Superbet
1.02
-
-
+4.5%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
95.1%
1.04
Betano
1.07
Superbet
1.04
1xBet
1.02
-
-
+6.2%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
94.9%
1.03
Bet365
1.05
Betano
1.05
Betfair
1.04
888Sport
1.04
Superbet
1.04
+5.4%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
92.5%
1.07
Betano
1.09
Bet365
1.08
1xBet
1.06
888Sport
1.06
Superbet
1.06
+5.5%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
92.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
91.0%
1.05
Betano
1.08
BetVictor
1.07
Bet365
1.06
Superbet
1.06
888Sport
1.05
+3.3%
✗ Miss
Away +2 handicap
90.5%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
+1.8%
✗ Miss
Home under 1.5 HT goals
90.3%
1.04
Betano
1.06
Superbet
1.05
10Bet
1.04
1xBet
1.03
Marathonbet
1.01
+1.4%
✗ Miss
Under 2.5 HT goals
87.6%
1.09
Bet365
1.11
William Hil
1.11
Betano
1.11
Superbet
1.11
Betfair
1.08
+3.4%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
87.4%
1.12
Betano
1.15
Bet365
1.14
888Sport
1.13
Superbet
1.13
Betfair
1.13
+5.5%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
86.6%
1.09
Betano
1.12
Superbet
1.10
1xBet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.06
-
+1.8%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
86.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
84.8%
1.16
Superbet
1.17
10Bet
1.17
Betano
1.17
1xBet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.13
+5.1%
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
83.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
81.6%
1.20
Betano
1.24
Superbet
1.21
William Hil
1.20
Bet365
1.20
1xBet
1.17
+4.8%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
79.3%
1.19
Bet365
1.22
William Hil
1.22
Betano
1.21
Superbet
1.20
1xBet
1.15
+1.8%
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
79.2%
1.15
Bet365
1.17
10Bet
1.17
Betano
1.17
888Sport
1.15
Superbet
1.15
-0.7%
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
79.2%
1.09
1xBet
1.09
-
-
-
-
-3.0%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
79.1%
1.25
Betano
1.29
Bet365
1.28
Superbet
1.27
10Bet
1.25
888Sport
1.25
+6.3%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
78.3%
1.27
Betano
1.31
Superbet
1.27
1xBet
1.27
Marathonbet
1.25
-
+6.0%
✓ Hit
Draw or Away
75.8%
1.19
Betano
1.24
William Hil
1.22
BetVictor
1.22
Bet365
1.22
Superbet
1.21
-1.5%
✗ Miss
Away +1 handicap
75.8%
1.20
Bet365
1.22
Marathonbet
1.17
-
-
-
+0.9%
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
74.9%
1.22
10Bet
1.28
Betano
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Unibet
1.23
Superbet
1.22
-0.1%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
74.5%
1.32
Bet365
1.36
Superbet
1.33
10Bet
1.33
Marathonbet
1.28
-
+7.1%
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
73.1%
1.36
Bet365
1.40
Betfair
1.40
Superbet
1.39
Betano
1.39
Pinnacle
1.38
+5.8%
✗ Miss
Home or Away
72.4%
1.23
William Hil
1.29
888Sport
1.29
Bet365
1.28
Betano
1.27
Betfair
1.25
-2.7%
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
71.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 goals
71.6%
1.32
Pinnacle
1.42
Betano
1.36
Superbet
1.35
1xBet
1.32
Marathonbet
1.32
+2.0%
✗ Miss
Over 3.5 cards
71.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Mladost Lucani
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Mihailo Todosijević43%
Nikola Ćirković29%
Vasil Tašovski29%
Dušan Jovančić0%
Milan Joksimović0%
Miloš Cvetković0%
Žarko Udovičić0%
Aleksandar Varjačić0%
Nikola Andrić0%
Petar Bojić0%
John Mary0%
Saša Stamenković0%
Veljko Kijevčanin0%
Filip Žunić0%
Vukašin Marković0%
Ognjen Krsmanović0%
Jovan Ćirić0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Veljko Kijevčanin43%
Dušan Jovančić29%
Aleksandar Varjačić29%
Žarko Udovičić20%
Vukašin Marković20%
Ognjen Krsmanović20%
Milan Joksimović14%
Nikola Andrić14%
John Mary14%
Vasil Tašovski14%
Miloš Cvetković0%
Petar Bojić0%
Nikola Ćirković0%
Saša Stamenković0%
Filip Žunić0%
Mihailo Todosijević0%
Jovan Ćirić0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Aleksandar Varjačić43%
Veljko Kijevčanin29%
Jovan Ćirić14%
Dušan Jovančić0%
Milan Joksimović0%
Miloš Cvetković0%
Žarko Udovičić0%
Nikola Andrić0%
Petar Bojić0%
Nikola Ćirković0%
John Mary0%
Saša Stamenković0%
Filip Žunić0%
Vukašin Marković0%
Mihailo Todosijević0%
Ognjen Krsmanović0%
Vasil Tašovski0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
John Mary14%
Vasil Tašovski14%
Dušan Jovančić0%
Milan Joksimović0%
Miloš Cvetković0%
Žarko Udovičić0%
Aleksandar Varjačić0%
Nikola Andrić0%
Petar Bojić0%
Nikola Ćirković0%
Saša Stamenković0%
Veljko Kijevčanin0%
Filip Žunić0%
Vukašin Marković0%
Mihailo Todosijević0%
Ognjen Krsmanović0%
Jovan Ćirić0%
FK Partizan
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Demba Seck50%
Igor Miladinović25%
Ibrahim Zubairu25%
Milan Aleksić25%
Ognjen Ugrešić17%
Chaka Traorè14%
Jeh14%
Bogdan Kostić14%
Milan Vukotić12%
Erik Kojzek12%
Stefan Mitrović0%
Nikola Čumić0%
Miloš Krunić0%
Marko Milošević0%
Iddrisu Baba0%
Stefan Milić0%
Nemanja Trifunović0%
Vukašin Đurđević0%
Mateja Milovanović0%
Milan Roganović0%
Nikola Simic0%
Samson Nwulu0%
Aleks Zeković0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Nemanja Trifunović33%
Iddrisu Baba25%
Milan Vukotić25%
Ibrahim Zubairu25%
Aleks Zeković25%
Vukašin Đurđević20%
Samson Nwulu20%
Ognjen Ugrešić17%
Stefan Milić14%
Chaka Traorè14%
Jeh14%
Milan Roganović14%
Stefan Mitrović0%
Nikola Čumić0%
Miloš Krunić0%
Marko Milošević0%
Demba Seck0%
Mateja Milovanović0%
Igor Miladinović0%
Nikola Simic0%
Erik Kojzek0%
Milan Aleksić0%
Bogdan Kostić0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Igor Miladinović50%
Milan Vukotić25%
Samson Nwulu20%
Jeh14%
Milan Roganović14%
Erik Kojzek12%
Stefan Mitrović0%
Nikola Čumić0%
Miloš Krunić0%
Marko Milošević0%
Iddrisu Baba0%
Stefan Milić0%
Nemanja Trifunović0%
Demba Seck0%
Chaka Traorè0%
Vukašin Đurđević0%
Mateja Milovanović0%
Ibrahim Zubairu0%
Nikola Simic0%
Milan Aleksić0%
Ognjen Ugrešić0%
Bogdan Kostić0%
Aleks Zeković0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Nikola Čumić67%
Nemanja Trifunović33%
Demba Seck33%
Ibrahim Zubairu25%
Milan Aleksić25%
Chaka Traorè14%
Jeh14%
Erik Kojzek12%
Stefan Mitrović0%
Miloš Krunić0%
Marko Milošević0%
Iddrisu Baba0%
Stefan Milić0%
Milan Vukotić0%
Vukašin Đurđević0%
Mateja Milovanović0%
Milan Roganović0%
Igor Miladinović0%
Nikola Simic0%
Ognjen Ugrešić0%
Bogdan Kostić0%
Samson Nwulu0%
Aleks Zeković0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FCZ (32)
€115m
FP (30)
€48m
VOJ (29)
€30m
OB (28)
€18m
ŽP (24)
€13m
INB (23)
€12m
RN (26)
€11m
NP (21)
€10m
CUK (23)
€10m
R1 (26)
€9m
RS (26)
€9m
ML (28)
€8m
ZEM (22)
€5m
MAC (19)
€4m
Mladost Lucani's squad is €41m less valuable than FK Partizan's (€8m vs €48m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FCZ (13)
€62m
FP (15)
€24m
VOJ (15)
€13m
ŽP (9)
€7m
OB (10)
€6m
RN (11)
€4m
ML (10)
€4m
R1 (10)
€4m
CUK (8)
€4m
INB (8)
€4m
NP (9)
€3m
RS (10)
€3m
ZEM (9)
€2m
MAC (7)
€2m
Mladost Lucani's attack is €20m less valuable than FK Partizan's (€4m vs €24m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FCZ (6)
€21m
FP (2)
€11m
VOJ (4)
€7m
OB (8)
€4m
INB (3)
€4m
R1 (6)
€3m
NP (3)
€2m
CUK (5)
€2m
RS (5)
€2m
ZEM (5)
€1m
ML (6)
€1m
ŽP (4)
€1m
RN (3)
€1m
MAC (3)
€1m
Mladost Lucani's midfield is €10m less valuable than FK Partizan's (€1m vs €11m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FCZ (13)
€33m
FP (13)
€14m
VOJ (10)
€9m
OB (10)
€8m
ŽP (11)
€6m
RN (12)
€5m
NP (9)
€5m
RS (11)
€4m
INB (12)
€4m
CUK (10)
€3m
R1 (10)
€3m
ML (12)
€2m
MAC (9)
€2m
ZEM (8)
€1m
Mladost Lucani's defence is €11m less valuable than FK Partizan's (€2m vs €14m).
Serbia: Super Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Serbia: Super Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
FK Crvena Zvezda
Vojvodina
IMT Novi Beograd
Radnicki 1923
Cukaricki
Železničar Pančevo
Radnik Surdulica
Novi Pazar
OFK Beograd
Macva
Radnicki NIS
Zemun