Mold Alexandra are tipped to win, with a 44 % chance of triumph, 26 % for a draw and 30 % for Bangor City 1876 FC to take the victory. The match is expected to see about 3.1 goals, but the most probable total is two goals, with a 23 % chance of exactly that. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, a 12 % probability. Mold’s home form shows they average 1.55 goals scored and 1.18 conceded against similar opposition, while Bangor City 1876 FC, on the road, averages 0.82 scored and 2.27 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (98.6 %), Home under 2.5 HT goals (97.9 %), Away under 2.5 HT goals (97.2 %), Under 6.5 (96.3 %), Away under 2.5 2H goals (96.1 %), Home under 2.5 2H goals (95.4 %), Away under 3.5 goals (94.8 %) and Under 5.5 (90.9 %). Mold Alexandra’s recent five matches (WWLDW) show a two-game winning streak, while Bangor City 1876 FC are on a three-game winning run after a 3-2 win over Holyhead Hotspur.
The win extends Mold Alexandra’s four-game winning run, cementing the model’s prediction that the home side would prevail. The final score of 2-1 matched the actual result, confirming the model’s choice of a Home win with a 44% probability. The model’s selections were largely accurate: Under 7.5 goals hit at 98.6%, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 97.5%, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 97.0%, Under 6.5 at 96.3%, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 96.0%, Away under 3.5 goals at 94.8%, Home under 2.5 2H goals at 92.5%, and Under 5.5 at 90.9%. All picks settled in favour of the model’s forecasts.
Mold Alexandra| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.43 | 1.50 | 1.38 | 1.31 | 1.50 | 1.71 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (18) | 1.72 | 1.28 | 1.70 | 1.20 | 1.75 | 1.38 |
| vs Weaker (12) | 1.00 | 1.83 | 0.83 | 1.50 | 1.17 | 2.17 |
| Clean sheet % | 27% (+5pp vs league) | |||||
Bangor City 1876 FC| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.67 | 2.07 | 1.94 | 1.75 | 1.36 | 2.43 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (19) | 1.47 | 1.84 | 2.10 | 1.30 | 0.78 | 2.44 |
| vs Weaker (11) | 2.00 | 2.45 | 1.67 | 2.50 | 2.40 | 2.40 |
| Clean sheet % | 13% (-9pp vs league) | |||||
| Bangor City 1876 FC goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 5.7% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 2.0% | 0.7% |
| 1 | 6.7% | 12% | 7.5% | 3.4% | 1.2% |
| 2 | 6.6% | 9.1% | 6.3% | 2.9% | 1.0% |
| 3 | 3.7% | 5.2% | 3.6% | 1.6% | 0.6% |
| 4 | 1.6% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
Mold Alexandra| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.70 | 0.50 | 0.62 | 0.38 | 0.79 | 0.64 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (18) | 0.83 | 0.50 | 0.80 | 0.40 | 0.88 | 0.62 |
| vs Weaker (12) | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.33 | 0.33 | 0.67 | 0.67 |
| Clean sheet % | 67% (+45pp vs league) | |||||
Bangor City 1876 FC| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.73 | 0.93 | 0.94 | 0.62 | 0.50 | 1.29 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (19) | 0.58 | 0.79 | 1.00 | 0.40 | 0.11 | 1.22 |
| vs Weaker (11) | 1.00 | 1.18 | 0.83 | 1.00 | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| Clean sheet % | 47% (+25pp vs league) | |||||
Mold Alexandra| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.73 | 1.00 | 0.75 | 0.94 | 0.71 | 1.07 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (18) | 0.89 | 0.78 | 0.90 | 0.80 | 0.88 | 0.75 |
| vs Weaker (12) | 0.50 | 1.33 | 0.50 | 1.17 | 0.50 | 1.50 |
| Clean sheet % | 33% (+11pp vs league) | |||||
Bangor City 1876 FC| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.93 | 1.13 | 1.00 | 1.12 | 0.86 | 1.14 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (19) | 0.89 | 1.05 | 1.10 | 0.90 | 0.67 | 1.22 |
| vs Weaker (11) | 1.00 | 1.27 | 0.83 | 1.50 | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 30% (+8pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 7.5 | 98.6% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Away under 2.5 HT goals | 97.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Home under 2.5 HT goals | 97.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 6.5 | 96.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Away under 2.5 2H goals | 96.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Away under 3.5 goals | 94.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Home under 2.5 2H goals | 92.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 5.5 | 90.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Home under 3.5 goals | 90.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Away under 1.5 HT goals | 87.6% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 2.5 HT goals | 87.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Home +2 handicap | 86.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Home under 1.5 HT goals | 85.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Away under 2.5 goals | 83.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 1.5 | 82.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 0.5 2H goals | 82.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Home over 0.5 goals | 81.6% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Away under 1.5 2H goals | 81.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 4.5 | 80.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 2.5 2H goals | 79.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Home under 1.5 2H goals | 77.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Away +2 handicap | 76.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Home under 2.5 goals | 76.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Away over 0.5 goals | 74.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Home or Away | 74.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 0.5 HT goals | 72.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29/03/25 | H | 6-1 | |
| 06/08/24 | A | 3-0 | |
| 15/03/24 | A | 1-0 | |
| 19/08/23 | H | 3-1 |
Mold Alexandra| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28/08/26 | A | 0-4 | |
| 21/08/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 15/08/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 08/08/26 | A | 3-2 | |
| 01/08/26 | H | 2-2 | |
| 18/04/26 | H | 3-1 | |
| 11/04/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 03/04/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 28/03/26 | H | 4-1 | |
| 21/03/26 | A | 0-1 |
Bangor City 1876 FC| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28/08/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 21/08/26 | A | 2-3 | |
| 15/08/26 | H | 5-0 | |
| 08/08/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 31/07/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 07/03/26 | A | 5-1 | |
| 31/01/26 | H | 3-1 | |
| 13/12/25 | H | 2-0 | |
| 22/11/25 | H | 2-1 | |
| 18/10/25 | H | 1-1 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | Brickfield Rangers | 6 | 15 | 83% | 2.5 | 17 | 4 | +13 | 3.5 | 100% | 67% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.8 | 0.7 | - |
| 2 | Swansea University | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 18 | 5 | +13 | 4.6 | 100% | 100% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.6 | 1.0 | - |
| 3 | Newtown AFC | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 14 | 1 | +13 | 3.0 | 80% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.8 | 0.2 | - |
| 4 | Pontypridd Town | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 16 | 10 | +6 | 5.2 | 100% | 100% | 80% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.2 | 2.0 | - |
| 5 | Mold Alexandra | 6 | 13 | 67% | 2.2 | 12 | 6 | +6 | 3.0 | 67% | 67% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | - |
| 6 | Aberystwyth Town | 5 | 12 | 80% | 2.4 | 16 | 5 | +11 | 4.2 | 80% | 80% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | - |
| 7 | Bangor City 1876 FC | 6 | 12 | 67% | 2.0 | 14 | 8 | +6 | 3.7 | 100% | 100% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.3 | 1.3 | - |
| 8 | Bala Town | 5 | 12 | 80% | 2.4 | 10 | 4 | +6 | 2.8 | 80% | 80% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 0.8 | - |
| 9 | Porthmadog | 6 | 11 | 50% | 1.8 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 3.3 | 83% | 67% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.5 | - |
| 10 | Caersws | 5 | 10 | 60% | 2.0 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 3.4 | 80% | 60% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.4 | - |
| 11 | Carmarthen Town | 6 | 10 | 50% | 1.7 | 15 | 14 | +1 | 4.8 | 100% | 100% | 83% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.5 | 2.3 | - |
| 12 | Baglan Dragons | 6 | 10 | 50% | 1.7 | 5 | 5 | +0 | 1.7 | 33% | 33% | 17% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 0.8 | - |
| 13 | Treowen Stars | 5 | 9 | 60% | 1.8 | 13 | 9 | +4 | 4.4 | 100% | 100% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.6 | 1.8 | - |
| 14 | Guilsfield | 6 | 9 | 33% | 1.5 | 12 | 9 | +3 | 3.5 | 100% | 67% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.5 | - |
| 15 | Trethomas Bluebirds | 6 | 8 | 33% | 1.3 | 12 | 11 | +1 | 3.8 | 83% | 67% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.8 | - |
| 16 | Ynyshir Albions | 5 | 8 | 40% | 1.6 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 1.4 | 40% | 20% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 0.6 | - |
| 17 | Rhyl | 5 | 7 | 40% | 1.4 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 3.4 | 80% | 60% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.6 | - |
| 18 | Afan Lido | 6 | 7 | 33% | 1.2 | 11 | 13 | -2 | 4.0 | 67% | 67% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 2.2 | - |
| 19 | Caerau (Ely) | 6 | 7 | 33% | 1.2 | 13 | 17 | -4 | 5.0 | 100% | 83% | 83% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.2 | 2.8 | - |
| 20 | Caerphilly Athletic | 5 | 7 | 40% | 1.4 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 2.0 | 60% | 60% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.6 | 1.4 | - |
| 21 | Newport City | 5 | 6 | 40% | 1.2 | 9 | 5 | +4 | 2.8 | 60% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.0 | - |
| 22 | Llanuwchllyn | 5 | 6 | 40% | 1.2 | 5 | 15 | -10 | 4.0 | 100% | 80% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | - |
| 23 | Holyhead Hotspur | 5 | 4 | 20% | 0.8 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 3.2 | 80% | 80% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 1.8 | - |
| 24 | Cardiff Draconians | 4 | 4 | 25% | 1.0 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 3.0 | 50% | 50% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.8 | - |
| 25 | Denbigh Town | 6 | 4 | 17% | 0.7 | 11 | 14 | -3 | 4.2 | 100% | 100% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 2.3 | - |
| 26 | Buckley Town | 6 | 4 | 17% | 0.7 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 3.0 | 83% | 50% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.8 | - |
| 27 | Ruthin Town | 6 | 4 | 17% | 0.7 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 3.2 | 100% | 83% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 2.2 | - |
| 28 | Pontardawe Town | 5 | 3 | 20% | 0.6 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 2.8 | 60% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1.8 | - |
| 29 | llanelli AFC | 6 | 2 | 0% | 0.3 | 6 | 18 | -12 | 4.0 | 100% | 83% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | - |
| 30 | Penrhyncoch | 5 | 1 | 0% | 0.2 | 3 | 16 | -13 | 3.8 | 100% | 80% | 80% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.6 | 3.2 | - |
| 31 | Llantwit Major | 4 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 1 | 14 | -13 | 3.8 | 75% | 75% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.2 | 3.5 | - |
| 32 | Gresford Athletic | 5 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 0 | 14 | -14 | 2.8 | 80% | 60% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 2.8 | - |