Mold Alexandra hosts Caersws in the Wales: FAW Championship, with the home side coming off a defeat against Guilsfield, where they lost 2-3 after a promising run. Caersws, on the other hand, is on a high after beating Gresford Athletic 1-0. The model predicts a home win, with a 51% probability, while the away win and draw probabilities stand at 25% and 24% respectively.
The expected total goals are 3.2, hinting at a high-scoring match. The most likely score is 3 goals, with Mold Alexandra's most likely scoreline being 1-1, carrying a 11.2% probability. At home, Mold Alexandra averages 1.11 goals scored and concedes 1.22, while Caersws averages 1.45 goals scored and concedes 2.09 when playing away against similar opponents.
The model's selection is Over 1.5, with an 83.5% probability, and an edge of 5%. The other selections include the home win, with a 51% probability, and the away win, with a 25% probability. The draw percentage is 24%.
In a stunning upset, Mold Alexandra's winning streak was halted as they drew 2-2 against Caersws. The win extends Mold Alexandra's run of not losing at home, but also brings an end to their recent winning form. The pre-match favourite, Mold Alexandra, failed to come through, with the model's selection of Home win being incorrect. The model's call was wrong, as Mold Alexandra did not secure the win. The model's selection of Home win had a pre-match probability of 51%. The model's selection of Over 1.5 hit, with a probability of 83.5%, while the model's selection of the most likely total goals of 3 missed, with a probability of 22%.
Mold Alexandra| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.23 | 1.50 | 1.27 | 1.33 | 1.20 | 1.67 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (20) | 1.40 | 1.30 | 1.50 | 1.30 | 1.30 | 1.30 |
| vs Weaker (10) | 0.90 | 1.90 | 0.80 | 1.40 | 1.00 | 2.40 |
| Clean sheet % | 23% (+2pp vs league) | |||||
Caersws| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.60 | 1.67 | 2.00 | 1.25 | 1.14 | 2.14 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 | - | - |
| vs Similar (22) | 1.82 | 1.64 | 2.18 | 1.36 | 1.45 | 1.91 |
| vs Weaker (7) | 1.14 | 1.86 | 2.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 23% (+2pp vs league) | |||||
| Caersws goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 5.2% | 4.3% | 3.4% | 1.4% | 0.5% |
| 1 | 7.0% | 11% | 6.5% | 2.7% | 0.9% |
| 2 | 7.6% | 9.6% | 6.1% | 2.6% | 0.8% |
| 3 | 4.8% | 6.1% | 3.9% | 1.6% | 0.5% |
| 4 | 2.3% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
Mold Alexandra| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.67 | 0.53 | 0.60 | 0.33 | 0.73 | 0.73 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (20) | 0.75 | 0.60 | 0.80 | 0.50 | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| vs Weaker (10) | 0.50 | 0.40 | 0.20 | 0.00 | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| Clean sheet % | 67% (+45pp vs league) | |||||
Caersws| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.57 | 0.77 | 0.75 | 0.56 | 0.36 | 1.00 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | - | - |
| vs Similar (22) | 0.64 | 0.82 | 0.82 | 0.64 | 0.45 | 1.00 |
| vs Weaker (7) | 0.43 | 0.71 | 0.75 | 0.50 | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 50% (+28pp vs league) | |||||
Mold Alexandra| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.57 | 0.97 | 0.67 | 1.00 | 0.47 | 0.93 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (20) | 0.65 | 0.70 | 0.70 | 0.80 | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| vs Weaker (10) | 0.40 | 1.50 | 0.60 | 1.40 | 0.20 | 1.60 |
| Clean sheet % | 30% (+8pp vs league) | |||||
Caersws| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.03 | 0.90 | 1.25 | 0.69 | 0.79 | 1.14 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 | - | - |
| vs Similar (22) | 1.18 | 0.82 | 1.36 | 0.73 | 1.00 | 0.91 |
| vs Weaker (7) | 0.71 | 1.14 | 1.25 | 0.50 | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 43% (+22pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 83.5% | 1.13 | 1.14 | 1.13 | 1.11 | - | - | +4.9% | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26/12/25 | H | 0-2 | |
| 09/08/25 | A | 0-2 | |
| 08/02/25 | H | 2-2 | |
| 07/09/24 | A | 0-1 | |
| 29/03/24 | H | 2-1 | |
| 12/08/23 | A | 4-0 |
Mold Alexandra| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18/04/26 | H | 3-1 | |
| 11/04/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 03/04/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 28/03/26 | H | 4-1 | |
| 21/03/26 | A | 0-1 | |
| 13/03/26 | A | 8-0 | |
| 07/03/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 28/02/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 21/02/26 | H | 0-1 | |
| 14/02/26 | A | 3-1 |
Caersws| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18/04/26 | H | 6-0 | |
| 13/04/26 | H | 3-2 | |
| 11/04/26 | A | 4-1 | |
| 06/04/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 03/04/26 | A | 0-2 | |
| 28/03/26 | H | 0-1 | |
| 21/03/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 14/03/26 | A | 3-1 | |
| 07/03/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 28/02/26 | A | 3-1 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | Swansea University | 4 | 12 | 100% | 3.0 | 14 | 1 | +13 | 3.8 | 100% | 100% | 25% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.5 | 0.2 | - |
| 2 | Brickfield Rangers | 4 | 12 | 100% | 3.0 | 14 | 2 | +12 | 4.0 | 100% | 75% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.5 | 0.5 | - |
| 3 | Pontypridd Town | 4 | 12 | 100% | 3.0 | 12 | 6 | +6 | 4.5 | 100% | 100% | 75% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.0 | 1.5 | - |
| 4 | Porthmadog | 4 | 10 | 75% | 2.5 | 8 | 4 | +4 | 3.0 | 75% | 50% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | - |
| 5 | Bangor City 1876 FC | 4 | 9 | 75% | 2.2 | 11 | 5 | +6 | 4.0 | 100% | 100% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.8 | 1.2 | - |
| 6 | Treowen Stars | 4 | 9 | 75% | 2.2 | 11 | 6 | +5 | 4.2 | 100% | 100% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.8 | 1.5 | - |
| 7 | Bala Town | 3 | 9 | 100% | 3.0 | 7 | 2 | +5 | 3.0 | 100% | 100% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.3 | 0.7 | - |
| 8 | Carmarthen Town | 4 | 9 | 75% | 2.2 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 5.0 | 100% | 100% | 75% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.8 | 2.2 | - |
| 9 | Newtown AFC | 3 | 7 | 67% | 2.3 | 9 | 1 | +8 | 3.3 | 100% | 67% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.0 | 0.3 | - |
| 10 | Mold Alexandra | 4 | 7 | 50% | 1.8 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 2.8 | 50% | 50% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 1.2 | - |
| 11 | Baglan Dragons | 4 | 7 | 50% | 1.8 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 1.2 | 25% | 25% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 0.8 | - |
| 12 | Aberystwyth Town | 3 | 6 | 67% | 2.0 | 11 | 5 | +6 | 5.3 | 100% | 100% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.7 | 1.7 | - |
| 13 | Newport City | 4 | 6 | 50% | 1.5 | 9 | 4 | +5 | 3.2 | 75% | 75% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.2 | 1.0 | - |
| 14 | Afan Lido | 4 | 6 | 50% | 1.5 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 4.2 | 75% | 75% | 75% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.2 | 2.0 | - |
| 15 | Guilsfield | 4 | 6 | 25% | 1.5 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 3.2 | 100% | 50% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.5 | - |
| 16 | Rhyl | 3 | 4 | 33% | 1.3 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 3.0 | 67% | 33% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.7 | 1.3 | - |
| 17 | Ynyshir Albions | 3 | 4 | 33% | 1.3 | 3 | 3 | +0 | 2.0 | 67% | 33% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | - |
| 18 | Ruthin Town | 4 | 4 | 25% | 1.0 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 3.2 | 100% | 100% | 25% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 1.8 | - |
| 19 | Caersws | 3 | 4 | 33% | 1.3 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 3.7 | 67% | 67% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.7 | 2.0 | - |
| 20 | Cardiff Draconians | 4 | 4 | 25% | 1.0 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 3.0 | 50% | 50% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.8 | - |
| 21 | Caerau (Ely) | 4 | 4 | 25% | 1.0 | 9 | 12 | -3 | 5.2 | 100% | 75% | 75% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.2 | 3.0 | - |
| 22 | Caerphilly Athletic | 4 | 4 | 25% | 1.0 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 2.2 | 75% | 75% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 1.8 | - |
| 23 | Denbigh Town | 4 | 3 | 25% | 0.8 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 4.2 | 100% | 100% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 2.2 | - |
| 24 | Holyhead Hotspur | 4 | 3 | 25% | 0.8 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 3.0 | 75% | 75% | 25% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.8 | - |
| 25 | Pontardawe Town | 4 | 3 | 25% | 0.8 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 3.2 | 75% | 75% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 2.0 | - |
| 26 | Llanuwchllyn | 3 | 3 | 33% | 1.0 | 3 | 11 | -8 | 4.7 | 100% | 100% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 3.7 | - |
| 27 | Trethomas Bluebirds | 4 | 2 | 0% | 0.5 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 2.8 | 75% | 50% | 25% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1.8 | - |
| 28 | Buckley Town | 4 | 1 | 0% | 0.2 | 4 | 8 | -4 | 3.0 | 75% | 50% | 25% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | - |
| 29 | llanelli AFC | 4 | 1 | 0% | 0.2 | 4 | 12 | -8 | 4.0 | 100% | 75% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | - |
| 30 | Penrhyncoch | 3 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 1 | 10 | -9 | 3.7 | 100% | 67% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.3 | 3.3 | - |
| 31 | Gresford Athletic | 4 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 0 | 12 | -12 | 3.0 | 75% | 75% | 25% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | - |
| 32 | Llantwit Major | 4 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 1 | 14 | -13 | 3.8 | 75% | 75% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.2 | 3.5 | - |