Mold Alexandra are expected to bounce back from a recent defeat, coming off a 2-3 loss to Guilsfield, as they host Holyhead Hotspur. The model predicts a home win, with a 48% probability, ahead of a 25% draw and 26% away win. This match is expected to be high-scoring, with an average of 3 goals. The most likely score is a 1-1 draw, occurring 11.8% of the time. Mold Alexandra have been scoring 2.5 goals on average at home, while conceding just 1. At home, they have a strong record against weaker opponents. Holyhead Hotspur, however, have struggled away to stronger teams, scoring 1.58 goals and conceding 2.25. The model's selection is Over 1.5 goals, which is expected to happen 81.7% of the time. The home win percentage is 48%, the draw percentage is 25%, and the away win percentage is 26%. The model's selection Over 1.5 goals has a 81.7% probability.
The win extends Mold Alexandra's run of form, coming off a win against Holyhead Hotspur. The final score was 1-0, a result that saw home win confirmed. The model's selection, home win, was correct, with a pre-match probability of 48%. The model's call was correct, as it chose the favourite, Mold Alexandra. In contrast, the model's selection of Over 1.5 goals, with a probability of 81.7%, missed, as the actual total goals was well below the expected 3.0, and the most likely total goals was 2, with a probability of 23%.
Mold Alexandra| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.27 | 1.63 | 1.33 | 1.40 | 1.20 | 1.87 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (19) | 1.42 | 1.42 | 1.60 | 1.20 | 1.22 | 1.67 |
| vs Weaker (11) | 1.00 | 2.00 | 0.80 | 1.80 | 1.17 | 2.17 |
| Clean sheet % | 20% (-2pp vs league) | |||||
Holyhead Hotspur| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.73 | 1.67 | 2.00 | 1.29 | 1.38 | 2.15 |
| vs Stronger (5) | 1.20 | 1.40 | 1.33 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| vs Similar (20) | 1.70 | 1.55 | 2.10 | 1.10 | 1.30 | 2.00 |
| vs Weaker (5) | 2.40 | 2.40 | 2.25 | 2.00 | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 20% (-2pp vs league) | |||||
| Holyhead Hotspur goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 5.9% | 5.0% | 3.8% | 1.6% | 0.5% |
| 1 | 7.4% | 12% | 6.8% | 2.9% | 0.9% |
| 2 | 7.5% | 9.5% | 6.0% | 2.5% | 0.8% |
| 3 | 4.4% | 5.6% | 3.6% | 1.5% | 0.5% |
| 4 | 2.0% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
Mold Alexandra| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.63 | 0.57 | 0.60 | 0.40 | 0.67 | 0.73 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (19) | 0.74 | 0.58 | 0.80 | 0.40 | 0.67 | 0.78 |
| vs Weaker (11) | 0.45 | 0.55 | 0.20 | 0.40 | 0.67 | 0.67 |
| Clean sheet % | 63% (+41pp vs league) | |||||
Holyhead Hotspur| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.80 | 0.77 | 0.88 | 0.82 | 0.69 | 0.69 |
| vs Stronger (5) | 0.60 | 0.80 | 0.67 | 0.33 | 0.50 | 1.50 |
| vs Similar (20) | 0.90 | 0.55 | 1.00 | 0.80 | 0.80 | 0.30 |
| vs Weaker (5) | 0.60 | 1.60 | 0.75 | 1.25 | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 50% (+28pp vs league) | |||||
Mold Alexandra| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.63 | 1.07 | 0.73 | 1.00 | 0.53 | 1.13 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (19) | 0.68 | 0.84 | 0.80 | 0.80 | 0.56 | 0.89 |
| vs Weaker (11) | 0.55 | 1.45 | 0.60 | 1.40 | 0.50 | 1.50 |
| Clean sheet % | 27% (+5pp vs league) | |||||
Holyhead Hotspur| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.93 | 0.90 | 1.12 | 0.47 | 0.69 | 1.46 |
| vs Stronger (5) | 0.60 | 0.60 | 0.67 | 0.67 | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| vs Similar (20) | 0.80 | 1.00 | 1.10 | 0.30 | 0.50 | 1.70 |
| vs Weaker (5) | 1.80 | 0.80 | 1.50 | 0.75 | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 47% (+25pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 81.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/03/26 | A | 0-1 | |
| 16/08/25 | H | 1-1 | |
| 18/03/23 | H | 3-1 | |
| 01/10/22 | A | 2-2 |
Mold Alexandra| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08/26 | A | 3-2 | |
| 01/08/26 | H | 2-2 | |
| 18/04/26 | H | 3-1 | |
| 11/04/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 03/04/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 28/03/26 | H | 4-1 | |
| 21/03/26 | A | 0-1 | |
| 13/03/26 | A | 8-0 | |
| 07/03/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 28/02/26 | A | 1-2 |
Holyhead Hotspur| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 31/07/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 18/04/26 | H | 5-1 | |
| 03/04/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 31/03/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 28/03/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 21/03/26 | H | 0-1 | |
| 14/03/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 07/03/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 01/03/26 | A | 1-0 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | Brickfield Rangers | 6 | 15 | 83% | 2.5 | 17 | 4 | +13 | 3.5 | 100% | 67% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.8 | 0.7 | - |
| 2 | Swansea University | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 18 | 5 | +13 | 4.6 | 100% | 100% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.6 | 1.0 | - |
| 3 | Newtown AFC | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 14 | 1 | +13 | 3.0 | 80% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.8 | 0.2 | - |
| 4 | Pontypridd Town | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 16 | 10 | +6 | 5.2 | 100% | 100% | 80% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.2 | 2.0 | - |
| 5 | Mold Alexandra | 6 | 13 | 67% | 2.2 | 12 | 6 | +6 | 3.0 | 67% | 67% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | - |
| 6 | Aberystwyth Town | 5 | 12 | 80% | 2.4 | 16 | 5 | +11 | 4.2 | 80% | 80% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | - |
| 7 | Bangor City 1876 FC | 6 | 12 | 67% | 2.0 | 14 | 8 | +6 | 3.7 | 100% | 100% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.3 | 1.3 | - |
| 8 | Bala Town | 5 | 12 | 80% | 2.4 | 10 | 4 | +6 | 2.8 | 80% | 80% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 0.8 | - |
| 9 | Porthmadog | 6 | 11 | 50% | 1.8 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 3.3 | 83% | 67% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.5 | - |
| 10 | Caersws | 5 | 10 | 60% | 2.0 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 3.4 | 80% | 60% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.4 | - |
| 11 | Carmarthen Town | 6 | 10 | 50% | 1.7 | 15 | 14 | +1 | 4.8 | 100% | 100% | 83% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.5 | 2.3 | - |
| 12 | Baglan Dragons | 6 | 10 | 50% | 1.7 | 5 | 5 | +0 | 1.7 | 33% | 33% | 17% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 0.8 | - |
| 13 | Treowen Stars | 5 | 9 | 60% | 1.8 | 13 | 9 | +4 | 4.4 | 100% | 100% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.6 | 1.8 | - |
| 14 | Guilsfield | 6 | 9 | 33% | 1.5 | 12 | 9 | +3 | 3.5 | 100% | 67% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.5 | - |
| 15 | Trethomas Bluebirds | 6 | 8 | 33% | 1.3 | 12 | 11 | +1 | 3.8 | 83% | 67% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.8 | - |
| 16 | Ynyshir Albions | 5 | 8 | 40% | 1.6 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 1.4 | 40% | 20% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 0.6 | - |
| 17 | Rhyl | 5 | 7 | 40% | 1.4 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 3.4 | 80% | 60% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.6 | - |
| 18 | Afan Lido | 6 | 7 | 33% | 1.2 | 11 | 13 | -2 | 4.0 | 67% | 67% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 2.2 | - |
| 19 | Caerau (Ely) | 6 | 7 | 33% | 1.2 | 13 | 17 | -4 | 5.0 | 100% | 83% | 83% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.2 | 2.8 | - |
| 20 | Caerphilly Athletic | 5 | 7 | 40% | 1.4 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 2.0 | 60% | 60% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.6 | 1.4 | - |
| 21 | Newport City | 5 | 6 | 40% | 1.2 | 9 | 5 | +4 | 2.8 | 60% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.0 | - |
| 22 | Llanuwchllyn | 5 | 6 | 40% | 1.2 | 5 | 15 | -10 | 4.0 | 100% | 80% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | - |
| 23 | Holyhead Hotspur | 5 | 4 | 20% | 0.8 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 3.2 | 80% | 80% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 1.8 | - |
| 24 | Cardiff Draconians | 4 | 4 | 25% | 1.0 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 3.0 | 50% | 50% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.8 | - |
| 25 | Denbigh Town | 6 | 4 | 17% | 0.7 | 11 | 14 | -3 | 4.2 | 100% | 100% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 2.3 | - |
| 26 | Buckley Town | 6 | 4 | 17% | 0.7 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 3.0 | 83% | 50% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.8 | - |
| 27 | Ruthin Town | 6 | 4 | 17% | 0.7 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 3.2 | 100% | 83% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 2.2 | - |
| 28 | Pontardawe Town | 5 | 3 | 20% | 0.6 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 2.8 | 60% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1.8 | - |
| 29 | llanelli AFC | 6 | 2 | 0% | 0.3 | 6 | 18 | -12 | 4.0 | 100% | 83% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | - |
| 30 | Penrhyncoch | 5 | 1 | 0% | 0.2 | 3 | 16 | -13 | 3.8 | 100% | 80% | 80% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.6 | 3.2 | - |
| 31 | Llantwit Major | 4 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 1 | 14 | -13 | 3.8 | 75% | 75% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.2 | 3.5 | - |
| 32 | Gresford Athletic | 5 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 0 | 14 | -14 | 2.8 | 80% | 60% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 2.8 | - |