Mold Alexandra’s recent three-game winning streak and a 4-0 demolition of Ruthin Town set the tone for a strong home outing, while Llanuwchllyn’s 0-4 loss to Newtown AFC signals a shaky away spell. The model therefore names a home win as the most likely result, assigning a 69% probability to that outcome. Home advantage is further reinforced by Mold’s average of 1.7 goals scored and 1.2 conceded at home against similarly matched opposition, compared with Llanuwchllyn’s 0.67 goals scored and 5.67 conceded on the road. The expected total goals hover at 3.4, with the most probable total being three goals at a 22% chance. The single scoreline the model deems most likely is 2-0 for Mold, carrying a 9.8% probability. The match’s probabilities break down to 69% for a home win, 18% for a draw, and 12% for an away win. Suggested picks include Away under 3.5 goals (98.3%), Under 7.5 (97.6%), Home +2 handicap (95.8%), Under 6.5 (93.9%), Away under 2.5 goals (92.5%), Home over 0.5 goals (91.5%), Home or Draw (87.9%) and Home +1 handicap (87.9%).
Mold Alexandra| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.47 | 1.53 | 1.41 | 1.29 | 1.54 | 1.85 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (18) | 1.78 | 1.33 | 1.73 | 1.18 | 1.86 | 1.57 |
| vs Weaker (12) | 1.00 | 1.83 | 0.83 | 1.50 | 1.17 | 2.17 |
| Clean sheet % | 23% (+1pp vs league) | |||||
Llanuwchllyn| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.22 | 2.56 | 1.75 | 0.25 | 0.80 | 4.40 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (6) | 1.50 | 3.00 | 2.33 | 0.33 | 0.67 | 5.67 |
| vs Weaker (3) | 0.67 | 1.67 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 2.50 |
| Clean sheet % | 33% (+11pp vs league) | |||||
| Llanuwchllyn goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 3.9% | 2.3% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 7.2% | 8.3% | 3.6% | 1.2% | 0.3% |
| 2 | 9.9% | 9.5% | 4.5% | 1.4% | 0.3% |
| 3 | 8.2% | 7.9% | 3.8% | 1.2% | 0.3% |
| 4 | 5.1% | 4.9% | 2.3% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
Mold Alexandra| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.70 | 0.50 | 0.59 | 0.35 | 0.85 | 0.69 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (18) | 0.83 | 0.50 | 0.73 | 0.36 | 1.00 | 0.71 |
| vs Weaker (12) | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.33 | 0.33 | 0.67 | 0.67 |
| Clean sheet % | 67% (+45pp vs league) | |||||
Llanuwchllyn| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.33 | 1.11 | 0.25 | 0.00 | 0.40 | 2.00 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (6) | 0.17 | 1.50 | 0.33 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| vs Weaker (3) | 0.67 | 0.33 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.50 |
| Clean sheet % | 56% (+34pp vs league) | |||||
Mold Alexandra| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.77 | 1.03 | 0.82 | 0.94 | 0.69 | 1.15 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (18) | 0.94 | 0.83 | 1.00 | 0.82 | 0.86 | 0.86 |
| vs Weaker (12) | 0.50 | 1.33 | 0.50 | 1.17 | 0.50 | 1.50 |
| Clean sheet % | 30% (+8pp vs league) | |||||
Llanuwchllyn| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.89 | 1.44 | 1.50 | 0.25 | 0.40 | 2.40 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (6) | 1.33 | 1.50 | 2.00 | 0.33 | 0.67 | 2.67 |
| vs Weaker (3) | 0.00 | 1.33 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 33% (+11pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away under 2.5 HT goals | 99.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away under 2.5 2H goals | 98.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away under 3.5 goals | 98.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 7.5 | 97.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home +2 handicap | 95.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away under 1.5 HT goals | 95.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home under 2.5 HT goals | 94.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 6.5 | 93.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away under 2.5 goals | 92.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home over 0.5 goals | 91.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away under 1.5 2H goals | 90.6% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home or Draw | 88.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home +1 handicap | 88.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Over 1.5 | 86.6% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 5.5 | 86.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home under 2.5 2H goals | 85.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Over 0.5 2H goals | 84.6% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 2.5 HT goals | 84.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home or Away | 81.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home under 1.5 HT goals | 78.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Over 0.5 HT goals | 77.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home under 3.5 goals | 75.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away under 1.5 goals | 75.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 4.5 | 73.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home over 1.5 goals | 71.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home win | 70.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| No games. | |||
Mold Alexandra| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31/08/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 28/08/26 | A | 0-4 | |
| 21/08/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 15/08/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 08/08/26 | A | 3-2 | |
| 01/08/26 | H | 2-2 | |
| 18/04/26 | H | 3-1 | |
| 11/04/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 03/04/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 28/03/26 | H | 4-1 |
Llanuwchllyn| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31/08/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 28/08/26 | A | 4-0 | |
| 15/08/26 | A | 5-0 | |
| 08/08/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 01/08/26 | A | 5-1 | |
| 14/12/24 | A | 7-1 | |
| 16/11/24 | H | 3-0 | |
| 19/10/24 | H | 0-0 | |
| 21/09/24 | A | 1-2 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | Brickfield Rangers | 6 | 15 | 83% | 2.5 | 17 | 4 | +13 | 3.5 | 100% | 67% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.8 | 0.7 | - |
| 2 | Swansea University | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 18 | 5 | +13 | 4.6 | 100% | 100% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.6 | 1.0 | - |
| 3 | Newtown AFC | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 14 | 1 | +13 | 3.0 | 80% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.8 | 0.2 | - |
| 4 | Pontypridd Town | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 16 | 10 | +6 | 5.2 | 100% | 100% | 80% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.2 | 2.0 | - |
| 5 | Mold Alexandra | 6 | 13 | 67% | 2.2 | 12 | 6 | +6 | 3.0 | 67% | 67% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | - |
| 6 | Aberystwyth Town | 5 | 12 | 80% | 2.4 | 16 | 5 | +11 | 4.2 | 80% | 80% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | - |
| 7 | Bangor City 1876 FC | 6 | 12 | 67% | 2.0 | 14 | 8 | +6 | 3.7 | 100% | 100% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.3 | 1.3 | - |
| 8 | Bala Town | 5 | 12 | 80% | 2.4 | 10 | 4 | +6 | 2.8 | 80% | 80% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 0.8 | - |
| 9 | Porthmadog | 6 | 11 | 50% | 1.8 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 3.3 | 83% | 67% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.5 | - |
| 10 | Caersws | 5 | 10 | 60% | 2.0 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 3.4 | 80% | 60% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.4 | - |
| 11 | Carmarthen Town | 6 | 10 | 50% | 1.7 | 15 | 14 | +1 | 4.8 | 100% | 100% | 83% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.5 | 2.3 | - |
| 12 | Baglan Dragons | 6 | 10 | 50% | 1.7 | 5 | 5 | +0 | 1.7 | 33% | 33% | 17% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 0.8 | - |
| 13 | Treowen Stars | 5 | 9 | 60% | 1.8 | 13 | 9 | +4 | 4.4 | 100% | 100% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.6 | 1.8 | - |
| 14 | Guilsfield | 6 | 9 | 33% | 1.5 | 12 | 9 | +3 | 3.5 | 100% | 67% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.5 | - |
| 15 | Trethomas Bluebirds | 6 | 8 | 33% | 1.3 | 12 | 11 | +1 | 3.8 | 83% | 67% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.8 | - |
| 16 | Ynyshir Albions | 5 | 8 | 40% | 1.6 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 1.4 | 40% | 20% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 0.6 | - |
| 17 | Rhyl | 5 | 7 | 40% | 1.4 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 3.4 | 80% | 60% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.6 | - |
| 18 | Afan Lido | 6 | 7 | 33% | 1.2 | 11 | 13 | -2 | 4.0 | 67% | 67% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 2.2 | - |
| 19 | Caerau (Ely) | 6 | 7 | 33% | 1.2 | 13 | 17 | -4 | 5.0 | 100% | 83% | 83% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.2 | 2.8 | - |
| 20 | Caerphilly Athletic | 5 | 7 | 40% | 1.4 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 2.0 | 60% | 60% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.6 | 1.4 | - |
| 21 | Newport City | 5 | 6 | 40% | 1.2 | 9 | 5 | +4 | 2.8 | 60% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.0 | - |
| 22 | Llanuwchllyn | 5 | 6 | 40% | 1.2 | 5 | 15 | -10 | 4.0 | 100% | 80% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | - |
| 23 | Holyhead Hotspur | 5 | 4 | 20% | 0.8 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 3.2 | 80% | 80% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 1.8 | - |
| 24 | Cardiff Draconians | 4 | 4 | 25% | 1.0 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 3.0 | 50% | 50% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.8 | - |
| 25 | Denbigh Town | 6 | 4 | 17% | 0.7 | 11 | 14 | -3 | 4.2 | 100% | 100% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 2.3 | - |
| 26 | Buckley Town | 6 | 4 | 17% | 0.7 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 3.0 | 83% | 50% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.8 | - |
| 27 | Ruthin Town | 6 | 4 | 17% | 0.7 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 3.2 | 100% | 83% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 2.2 | - |
| 28 | Pontardawe Town | 5 | 3 | 20% | 0.6 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 2.8 | 60% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1.8 | - |
| 29 | llanelli AFC | 6 | 2 | 0% | 0.3 | 6 | 18 | -12 | 4.0 | 100% | 83% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | - |
| 30 | Penrhyncoch | 5 | 1 | 0% | 0.2 | 3 | 16 | -13 | 3.8 | 100% | 80% | 80% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.6 | 3.2 | - |
| 31 | Llantwit Major | 4 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 1 | 14 | -13 | 3.8 | 75% | 75% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.2 | 3.5 | - |
| 32 | Gresford Athletic | 5 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 0 | 14 | -14 | 2.8 | 80% | 60% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 2.8 | - |