Molde is expected to emerge victorious in this Eliteserien encounter against Sarpsborg 08 FF, with a probability of 58% for a home win, 23% for a draw, and 19% for an away win. The model's top pick is indeed a home win, suggesting a closely contested match with a high-scoring outcome. The expected total goals stand at 3.1, with the most likely total goals being 2.
The most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a probability of 10.7%. Molde has been scoring an average of 2.5 goals at home, conceding 1.0, whereas Sarpsborg 08 FF averages 1.5 goals away against stronger opponents and concedes 2.25. The model suggests taking Over 1.5, with an 83% probability of hitting this result. The suggested picks include the Over 1.5, which is likely to be hit, and the home win, with a 58% probability. The home win percentage stands at 58%, the draw percentage at 23%, and the away win percentage at 19%.
Results analysis
Molde's 3-3 draw with Sarpsborg 08 FF extends their run of inconsistent results, following a defeat in their previous outing. The match ended in a stalemate, defying expectations. The pre-match favourite, a home win, failed to materialise, with the model's selection also coming up short. The model had predicted a home win with a 58% probability, but it was incorrect. The model's selection was not the only one to miss the mark, as the most likely scores, including 1-1 and 2-1, did not occur. However, the model did correctly identify that the match would see over 1.5 goals, with a probability of 83%, and this prediction was hit.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Molde win✗ Miss
58.3%
Avg Implied 57.2% · @ 1.64
Edge
+1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
1.67
Pinnacle
1.67
Dafabet
1.66
Bet365
1.65
Betano
1.65
Draw✓ Hit
23.0%
Avg Implied 22.4% · @ 4.17
Edge
+0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
4.40
Bet365
4.33
Superbet
4.25
Betfair
4.20
888Sport
4.20
Sarpsborg 08 FF win✗ Miss
18.7%
Avg Implied 20.4% · @ 4.58
Edge
-1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
5.08
1xBet
4.96
Marathonbet
4.85
10Bet
4.80
Betano
4.75
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Molde
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.63
1.37
2.20
1.07
1.07
1.67
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
1.80
1.47
2.40
1.10
0.60
2.20
vs Weaker (15)
1.47
1.27
1.80
1.00
1.30
1.40
Clean sheet %
27% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Sarpsborg 08 FF) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
1.70
1.29
1.29
1.44
2.06
vs Stronger (7)
1.71
1.57
1.67
1.67
2.00
1.00
vs Similar (23)
1.26
1.74
1.00
1.00
1.40
2.13
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Molde) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
83.0%
@ 1.11-0.8%
Under 1.5
17.0%
@ 5.74+0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.14
10Bet
1.14
Pinnacle
1.13
888Sport
1.13
Superbet
1.12
Under
Betfair
6.50
Pinnacle
6.35
Bet365
6.00
888Sport
5.75
BetVictor
5.75
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
60.6%
@ 1.42-5.0%
Under 2.5
39.4%
@ 2.71+5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.45
10Bet
1.45
Betano
1.44
Bet365
1.44
Superbet
1.43
Under
Betfair
2.88
Pinnacle
2.82
888Sport
2.75
BetVictor
2.75
10Bet
2.70
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
38.3%
@ 2.07-7.2%
Under 3.5
61.7%
@ 1.72+7.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
SBO
2.14
Pinnacle
2.11
Betfair
2.10
10Bet
2.10
1xBet
2.08
Under
Pinnacle
1.78
1xBet
1.76
Bet365
1.73
SBO
1.73
888Sport
1.73
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
58.8%
@ 1.46-4.7%
No
41.2%
@ 2.53+4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.50
Superbet
1.48
Betfair
1.47
1xBet
1.45
Betano
1.45
No
Betfair
2.63
1xBet
2.56
Unibet
2.55
BetVictor
2.55
Betano
2.55
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.7%@ 8.23+5.1%
2-1
9.9%@ 7.80+4.1%
2-0
9.1%@ 9.99+4.5%
1-0
7.9%@ 10.49+3.6%
3-1
6.8%@ 10.69+2.5%
3-0
6.2%@ 13.40+2.8%
2-2
5.4%@ 11.18+1.3%
0-0
5.3%@ 17.09+2.7%
Molde goals ↓
Sarpsborg 08 FF goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.3%
3.8%
2.6%
0.9%
0.3%
1
7.9%
11%
5.3%
1.9%
0.5%
2
9.1%
9.9%
5.4%
2.0%
0.5%
3
6.2%
6.8%
3.7%
1.3%
0.4%
4
3.2%
3.4%
1.9%
0.7%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Molde goals (down), columns = Sarpsborg 08 FF goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Bodo/Glimt
2.41
Viking
2.35
Tromso
2.00
Molde
1.59
Lillestrom
1.53
Brann
1.47
Rosenborg
1.41
Fredrikstad
1.35
Ham-Kam
1.29
Sarpsborg 08 FF
1.29
Valerenga
1.24
KFUM Oslo
1.12
Sandefjord
1.06
Aalesund
0.88
Kristiansund BK
0.88
Start
0.59
Molde is 0.29 points better than Sarpsborg 08 FF in terms of average points per game (1.59 vs 1.29).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Bodo/Glimt
2.53
Viking
2.35
Brann
2.12
Tromso
2.00
Molde
1.88
Valerenga
1.65
Aalesund
1.59
Rosenborg
1.47
Ham-Kam
1.41
Lillestrom
1.35
Sarpsborg 08 FF
1.18
KFUM Oslo
1.12
Fredrikstad
1.06
Start
0.94
Sandefjord
0.88
Kristiansund BK
0.88
Molde is 0.71 goals better than Sarpsborg 08 FF in terms of goals scored per game (1.88 vs 1.18).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Bodo/Glimt
0.71
Viking
1.00
Tromso
1.18
Lillestrom
1.24
Rosenborg
1.29
Sarpsborg 08 FF
1.35
Sandefjord
1.35
Molde
1.53
KFUM Oslo
1.59
Fredrikstad
1.59
Kristiansund BK
1.59
Brann
1.59
Ham-Kam
1.76
Valerenga
2.00
Start
2.24
Aalesund
2.41
Molde is 0.18 goals worse than Sarpsborg 08 FF in terms of goals conceded per game (1.53 vs 1.35).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Bodo/Glimt
65%
Brann
59%
Molde
59%
Lillestrom
53%
Rosenborg
52%
Viking
51%
Sandefjord
51%
Tromso
49%
Valerenga
49%
Fredrikstad
47%
Ham-Kam
47%
KFUM Oslo
45%
Sarpsborg 08 FF
45%
Aalesund
43%
Kristiansund BK
43%
Start
42%
Molde is 14.1 percentage points better than Sarpsborg 08 FF in terms of average possession (59% vs 45%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Molde
For 5.2 · Against 5.0 · Total 10.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.1 · Against 1.5 · Total 3.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.9 · Against 12.6 · Total 22.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Sarpsborg 08 FF
For 4.8 · Against 4.4 · Total 9.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 1.9 · Total 3.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.5 · Against 11.8 · Total 24.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Molde
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.1
10.1
10.1
3.5
3.5
3.5
22.9
23.4
22.5
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (22)
10.0
10.0
10.1
4.3
3.8
4.9
24.0
24.7
23.2
vs Weaker (28)
10.2
10.3
10.1
2.9
3.2
2.6
22.0
22.1
21.8
% over line
52%
55%
50%
48%
54%
42%
59%
64%
55%
% under line
48%
45%
50%
52%
46%
58%
41%
36%
45%
This opponent (Sarpsborg 08 FF) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.2
11.0
11.4
2.7
2.7
2.7
22.7
23.0
22.5
vs Stronger (12)
13.5
13.6
13.2
1.5
1.2
2.0
19.1
17.6
21.8
vs Similar (35)
10.0
9.0
10.8
3.1
3.5
2.8
23.7
25.4
22.4
vs Weaker (3)
16.5
20.0
13.0
2.3
2.0
2.5
28.5
30.0
27.0
% over line
62%
57%
67%
36%
35%
37%
55%
57%
52%
% under line
38%
43%
33%
64%
65%
63%
45%
43%
48%
This opponent (Molde) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Valerenga
11.7
Viking
11.6
Aalesund
11.6
Sarpsborg 08 FF
11.2
Rosenborg
10.9
Sandefjord
10.8
Brann
10.8
Bodo/Glimt
10.7
Ham-Kam
10.3
Lillestrom
10.3
Kristiansund BK
10.2
Molde
10.1
Fredrikstad
9.8
Tromso
9.0
KFUM Oslo
8.9
Start
8.9
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Viking
4.4
Molde
4.3
Brann
4.1
Valerenga
4.0
Lillestrom
3.9
Rosenborg
3.9
Start
3.8
Kristiansund BK
3.7
Sandefjord
3.6
KFUM Oslo
3.5
Sarpsborg 08 FF
3.4
Aalesund
3.3
Tromso
3.3
Fredrikstad
3.1
Ham-Kam
3.0
Bodo/Glimt
2.9
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Sandefjord
24.9
Viking
24.7
Start
24.2
Brann
24.2
Rosenborg
24.0
Valerenga
23.9
Molde
23.2
Tromso
23.0
Ham-Kam
22.8
Sarpsborg 08 FF
22.8
Kristiansund BK
22.1
Lillestrom
21.8
KFUM Oslo
21.5
Aalesund
21.4
Fredrikstad
21.0
Bodo/Glimt
19.2
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
59.1%
@ 1.48-3.2%
Under 9.5
40.9%
@ 2.44+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.59
Betano
1.50
Pinnacle
1.47
Unibet
1.46
Marathonbet
1.42
Under
Pinnacle
2.54
Marathonbet
2.53
Betano
2.45
Unibet
2.45
1xBet
2.45
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
53.0%
Under 3.5
47.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
68.5%
Under 21.5
31.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Molde
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.73
1.00
0.67
0.60
0.80
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
0.73
0.87
0.80
0.80
0.60
1.00
vs Weaker (15)
0.87
0.60
1.40
0.40
0.60
0.70
Clean sheet %
50% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Sarpsborg 08 FF) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.80
0.93
0.64
1.00
0.94
vs Stronger (7)
1.14
1.00
1.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
vs Similar (23)
0.91
0.74
0.88
0.38
0.93
0.93
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Molde) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Molde over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Molde over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Molde over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sarpsborg 08 FF over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sarpsborg 08 FF over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sarpsborg 08 FF over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Molde
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.63
1.20
0.40
0.47
0.87
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
1.07
0.60
1.60
0.30
0.00
1.20
vs Weaker (15)
0.60
0.67
0.40
0.60
0.70
0.70
Clean sheet %
47% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Sarpsborg 08 FF) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.90
0.36
0.64
0.44
1.12
vs Stronger (7)
0.57
0.57
0.67
0.67
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (23)
0.35
1.00
0.12
0.62
0.47
1.20
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Molde) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Molde over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Molde over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Molde over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sarpsborg 08 FF over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sarpsborg 08 FF over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sarpsborg 08 FF over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
83.0%
1.11
Betano
1.14
10Bet
1.14
Pinnacle
1.13
888Sport
1.13
Superbet
1.12
-0.8%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
81.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
81.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
73.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 8.5 corners
71.0%
1.28
Superbet
1.37
Betano
1.30
1xBet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.22
-
-0.5%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 13. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BOD (24)
€75m
VIK (25)
€45m
MOL (26)
€35m
BRA (24)
€25m
ROS (20)
€18m
S0F (24)
€16m
FRE (25)
€15m
LIL (25)
€14m
VAL (19)
€14m
AAL (24)
€13m
KB (21)
€13m
SAN (22)
€11m
STA (25)
€9m
KO (24)
€8m
Molde's squad is €19m more valuable than Sarpsborg 08 FF's (€35m vs €16m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BOD (7)
€22m
VIK (9)
€20m
MOL (7)
€13m
BRA (9)
€10m
S0F (10)
€9m
ROS (6)
€6m
LIL (9)
€6m
VAL (7)
€6m
KB (6)
€5m
FRE (5)
€5m
AAL (6)
€5m
SAN (7)
€4m
KO (8)
€3m
STA (5)
€2m
Molde's attack is €4m more valuable than Sarpsborg 08 FF's (€13m vs €9m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BOD (7)
€27m
VIK (5)
€12m
MOL (8)
€7m
BRA (4)
€7m
VAL (6)
€5m
KB (6)
€4m
AAL (8)
€4m
LIL (4)
€4m
ROS (4)
€3m
S0F (5)
€3m
STA (8)
€3m
FRE (4)
€3m
SAN (4)
€2m
KO (5)
€2m
Molde's midfield is €4m more valuable than Sarpsborg 08 FF's (€7m vs €3m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BOD (10)
€26m
MOL (11)
€15m
VIK (11)
€13m
BRA (11)
€9m
ROS (10)
€8m
FRE (16)
€8m
SAN (11)
€5m
LIL (12)
€5m
AAL (10)
€4m
S0F (9)
€4m
KO (11)
€4m
STA (12)
€4m
KB (9)
€3m
VAL (6)
€3m
Molde's defence is €11m more valuable than Sarpsborg 08 FF's (€15m vs €4m).
Norway: Eliteserien 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Norway: Eliteserien stats & trends →
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Bodo/Glimt
Viking
Tromso
Lillestrom
Brann
Rosenborg
Fredrikstad
Ham-Kam
Valerenga
KFUM Oslo
Sandefjord
Kristiansund BK
Aalesund
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